Manila Electric
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Utilities / Philippines MER PM Utilities / Philippines 27 March 2015 Manila Electric Manila Electric Target (PHP): 324.00 Upside: 19.9% MER PM 26 Mar price (PHP): 270.20 Initiation: powering through 1 Buy (initiation) • New power-generation investment underappreciated by the 2 Outperform market, overshadowed by worries of a lower distribution tariff 3 Hold • However, we factor this into our forecasts; we expect 12% YoY 4 Underperform declines in electricity distribution rates for 2016/17E 5 Sell • Initiating coverage with a Buy (1) rating and DCF-based 12- month target price of PHP324 How do we justify our view? its expansion projects. We estimate as distribution recovers and new it has a 2015E dividend yield of power projects become operational. 4.9%, one of the highest among PSEi index constituents. ■ Risks The main risks to our call would be Bianca Solema ■ Catalysts an adverse decision by the regulator (63) 2 737 3023 Progress on tariff reset. This on the tariff and delays/issues in the [email protected] could be a welcome development for execution of generation projects. investors, as we believe the market has already priced in a lower tariff ■ Investment case scenario relative to the current tariff. We initiate coverage on Manila In addition, our forecasts factor in Share price performance Electric Co (Meralco), the lower distribution rates and a 1-year (PHP) (%) Philippines’ largest electricity- delay in the implementation of a 295 105 284 98 distribution utility company, with a tariff change. We forecast Meralco’s Buy (1) rating. 273 90 average distribution rate to fall by 261 83 12% each for 2016 and 2017. 250 75 Power-generation assets not Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 fully valued. In 2013, Meralco re- Manila Ele (LHS) New power plant. The 500MW Relative to PCOMP Index (RHS) entered the power-generating San Buenaventura coal plant is business. It now has an attributable Meralco’s first power-generation capacity of 379MW, with several 12-month range 251.20-292.40 project in which it has a majority Market cap (USDbn) 6.79 projects due to come on line in interest. Construction will start 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 2.37 2017/18. However, we believe the when it receives regulatory approval Shares outstanding (m) 1,127 Major shareholder Beacon Electric Asset Hldgs (45.0%) market does not yet appreciate the for its power supply agreement. The potential value of the power- company expects the regulator’s Financial summary (PHP) generating business. Despite decision within 1Q15 or early 2Q15. Meralco’s new ventures in power Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E Revenue (m) 266,336 306,392 314,003 generation, the stock has traded ■ Valuation Operating profit (m) 26,146 25,554 22,943 sideways since 2013, likely due to an We have a DCF-based 12-month Net profit (m) 18,053 18,198 16,637 anticipated reduction in the Core EPS (fully-diluted) 16.017 16.146 14.761 target price of PHP324, within which EPS change (%) 6.1 0.8 (8.6) electricity tariffs under its 4th our PHP293/share valuation for regulatory period, which we assume Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 0.6 1.0 (8.8) electricity distribution already PER (x) 16.9 16.7 18.3 to start in June 2016. exceeds the current share price. Dividend yield (%) 4.8 4.9 4.6 Although the stock’s 2015E PER of DPS 12.870 13.334 12.501 High yield. Meralco’s strong cash- PBR (x) 3.8 3.7 3.6 16.7x exceeds the 15.1x average of its EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 8.0 9.4 flow generation enables it to pay out regional peers (Bloomberg forecasts), healthy cash dividends and supports ROE (%) 23.4 22.5 19.9 we believe its valuations will increase Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 38 Utilities / Philippines MER PM 27 March 2015 Contents Investment thesis ........................................................................................................................... 6 Powering through ........................................................................................................................ 6 Key near-term catalysts ............................................................................................................... 7 Distribution business: unparalleled power .................................................................................... 9 Poised to benefit directly from economic growth....................................................................... 9 Regulatory headwinds factored in .............................................................................................. 9 Forecasts: distribution business ................................................................................................ 11 Generation: new source of power.................................................................................................. 13 Need for new capacity ................................................................................................................ 13 Re-entry into power generation ................................................................................................. 13 Partnering with established generation players ........................................................................ 14 Growing contribution from power generation .......................................................................... 17 Valuation: power-generation assets ascribed zero value .............................................................. 18 SOTP-based TP of PHP324 ........................................................................................................ 18 Earnings multiples at the high end in the near term ................................................................ 19 Steady and healthy dividends ................................................................................................... 20 Key risks ......................................................................................................................................... 21 Regulatory and political risks .................................................................................................... 21 Operational and execution risks ................................................................................................ 21 Market risk ................................................................................................................................. 21 Appendix I: company profile ........................................................................................................ 22 Largest electricity distributor ................................................................................................... 22 Ownership history ..................................................................................................................... 23 World-class operations ............................................................................................................. 24 Other projects leveraging the strength of the distribution platform ....................................... 25 Appendix II: performance-based regulation (PBR) .................................................................... 28 Appendix III: positive macroeconomic drivers ............................................................................ 31 Appendix IV: power supply-demand scenario............................................................................. 34 - 2 - Utilities / Philippines MER PM 27 March 2015 1 Buy (initiation) How do we justify our view? 2 Outperform 3 Hold Growth outlook 4 Underperform Valuation 5 Sell Earnings revisions Meralco: breakdown of Daiwa’s net income forecasts (PHPm) Growth outlook Meralco posted a 6% YoY rise in its core net income for 20,581 19,417 2014. Growth should be more modest for 2015, as 18,053 18,198 16,637 16,914 distribution is likely to be dragged down by the full-year 14,793 impact of the lower distribution rate implemented in 2H14. For 2016 and 2017, we see earnings declining by 9% YoY and 11% YoY, respectively, due to our lower 18,070 17,660 15,858 16,451 17,367 tariff estimates for the fourth regulatory period 13,862 15,031 (assumed to begin July 2016). We should start to see a recovery in 2018, with 2019 being the banner year, driven by improvements in distribution, coupled with rising contributions from its new generation projects. 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E We forecast earnings to reach PHP16.91bn (+14% YoY) MER parent (distribution) and others Pacific Light San Buenaventura Power GBP for 2018 and PHP19.42bn for 2019 (+15% YoY). Source: Daiwa forecasts Note Meralco: 12-month forward PER bands Valuation We value each of Meralco’s distribution and generation (PHP/sh) businesses using a DCF methodology to arrive at our 500 SOTP target price of PHP324. Our target price implies 450 28.8x 400 potential upside of 20% and is equivalent to a 2015E 23.0x PER of 20.2x. 350 300 17.1x We apply varying WACCs, ranging from 6.08% to 250 200 9.66%, and a terminal growth rate of 3% for the 11.3x 150 domestic units and 2% for the company’s Singapore- 100 5.4x based affiliate. In our valuation of the generation 50 business, we include the company’s 3 ventures: 0 PacificLight (28% stake), Global Business Power (22% Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 stake) and San Buenaventura Power (51% stake). Source: Daiwa Meralco: Bloomberg consensus 2015 EPS forecast Earnings revisions The Bloomberg consensus cut its 2014 EPS forecast for (PHP/sh) (PHP/sh) Meralco