Oldtown Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Overseas Market to Deliver Future Growth Target Price (TP): RM2.90

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Oldtown Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Overseas Market to Deliver Future Growth Target Price (TP): RM2.90 16 June 2017 | Initiate Coverage Oldtown Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Overseas market to deliver future growth Target Price (TP): RM2.90 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS RETURN STATS • We initiate coverage on Oldtown Berhad (Oldtown) with a NEUTRAL recommendation and TP of RM2.90 per share Price (15 June 2017) RM2.72 • Our valuation is based on PER18 of 20x pegged to EPS18 of 14.5sen Target Price RM2.90 • FMCG segment to drive growth through export Expected Share Price Return +6.4% • Synergistic value gain through vertical integration Expected Dividend Yield +2.9% Company businesses. Oldtown Berhad is principally engaged in the Expected Total Return +9.3% business activities of: (i) Operation of café chain (F&B segment) and; (ii) Manufacturing, marketing and sales of coffee and other beverages (FMCG segment). It invented the White Coffee category in 1999 and STOCK INFO since then specialises in the formulation of hot and cold coffee using high quality coffee beans that have been roasted using its own unique KLCI 1790.01 5201 / proprietary bean roasting process. As of June 2017, the Group has a Bursa / Bloomberg OTB MK total chain of 234 café outlets, of which 197 café outlets are located in Malaysia, 25 café outlets in Indonesia, eight café outlets in Singapore, Board / Sector Main / Consumer two café outlets in China, one café outlet each in Australia and Hong Syariah Compliant Yes Kong operating under the brand name of ’Oldtown White Coffee’. While its beverages are sold in more than 8,000 retail outlets in Issued shares (mil) 463.24 Malaysia, 850 retail outlets in Singapore and 2,800 retail outlets in Par Value (RM) 1.00 Hong Kong. Other export market includes the USA, China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, Canada, Philippines, the United Kingdom Market cap. (RM’m) 1,260.01m and Australia. Price over NA 3.21 Key investment thesis: 52-wk price Range RM1.68-RM3.46 i) FMCG segment to drive growth through export; Beta (against KLCI) 0.77 ii) Synergistic value gain through vertical integration and; 3-mth Avg Daily Vol 1.48m iii) Strong fundamentals Key risks: 3-mth Avg Daily Value RM4.17m i) Strengthening of the Ringgit would slow down export sales Major Shareholders (%) growth; Oldtown International 42.58 ii) Stiff competition in the local F&B market might cause drag on Mawer Investment 9.20 earnings; Franklin Resources 4.43 iii) Continuous reliance on advertising and promotional expenses to spur consumer spending MIDF RESEARCH is a unit of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures MIDF EQUITY BEAT Friday, 16 June 2017 KEY INVESTMENT THESIS FMCG segment to drive growth through export Oldtown exports its white coffee products to more than 13 countries worldwide which include countries in South East Asian region as well as Hong Kong and China. Among its product offerings, instant white coffee and tea mix command the largest concentration of approximately 92% (Refer Figure 1 and Figure 2). In its key overseas markets i.e. Hong Kong and Singapore, the brand is widely recognised as the number two coffee mix manufacturer behind Nestlé with market share of 31% and 18% respectively. Figure 1: FMCG segment’s category portfolio Figure 2: FMCG segment’s category concentration Ready to Roasted drink coffee 5% Ready-to-drink 3% White coffee & tea Mix 92% White coffee & tea mix Roasted coffee Source: Company Source: Company, MIDFR Being the largest of the two business segment, the FMCG segment contributed 80% (RM63m) of operating profit for FY17 while the remaining 20% (RM16m) is contributed by the F&B segment (Refer Figure 3). The former segment experienced an improved performance especially in FY16 and FY17 due to the higher selling and distributors’ coverage as well as, the positive impact from the weak Ringgit against foreign currencies. The five-year operating income CAGR is very strong at +23.9% and we expect that the FMCG segment will continue to drive the growth for the group as the product acceptance in new markets increase. Meanwhile, the F&B segment recorded subdued performance mainly due to the sluggish economy as well as intense competition domestically which resulted in lower sales and higher operating costs. Figure 3: Annual operating profit of FMCG and Figure 4: Annual operating profit growth of F&B (RM million) FMCG and F&B 70.0 50% FMCG F&B 60.0 40% FMCG F&B 50.0 30% 20% 40.0 10% 30.0 0% 20.0 FY12 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 -10% 10.0 -20% 0.0 FY12 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 -30% Source: Company, MIDFR Source: Company, MIDFR 2 MIDF EQUITY BEAT Friday, 16 June 2017 The recent stellar growth of FMCG’s segment is mainly driven by export as it grew by +26%yoy in FY17. This boosted the size of FMCG revenue contribution derived from overseas to 65% whilst revenue derived domestically only accounts for 35%. Of the 65% of revenue from overseas market, the Greater China’s contribution is the largest which amounted to 45% of FMCG’s revenue (Refer Figure 6) and this even surpassed the contribution from the domestic market of 35%. The significant contribution from Greater China is mainly driven by the stellar growth of +145%yoy for Chinese market. This improvement is very much attributed to the setting up of marketing and sales team to handle distribution network in China to supply to key supermarket chains such as Walmart, Vanguard, and RT Mart as well as ramping up the e-commerce distribution channel. In the e-commerce segment, Oldtown product is well supported by over 100 China online retailers across the three key e-commerce platforms like T-mall, JD.com and Taobao.com. We are positive on Oldtown’s strategy to ride on China’s online and offline sales platform as this will significantly improve customer reach of its products. Figure 5: Oldtown products selling in China e- Figure 6: FMCG’s revenue breakdown by commerce platforms countries Others 6% ASEAN (ex- Malaysia) 14% Greater China 45% Malaysia 35% Source: Company Source: Company, MIDFR Oldtown strategy of re-focusing on China is timely as the country’s economic recovery is gaining traction as the growth in the first quarter of 2017 rose to 6.9%, its fastest pace in more than a year. In addition, the China Manufacturing SA is leading the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI for February signalling a pickup in manufacturing activities (Refer Figure 8). As China’s economy recovers, we expect that the private consumption will also pick up. In line with this, we observed that the retail and wholesale sector expanded at the fastest pace in the first quarter since the end of 2014 with an annual growth of 7.4%, increased by + 1.6ppts year-on year. In the e- commerce segment, Tmall reported revenue growth of +363%yoy (Refer Figure 7). Due to the economic recovery, we opine that the Oldtown’s strategy to refocus on the China’s market recently is timely as it is better position to benefit from the expected increase in China’s private consumption as its economic recovers. Hence, we expect that FMCG’s revenue from China to grow at 20% in the near term in line with the management expectation. Figure 7: Sales growth trend of China e-commerce Figure 8: China Mfg vs JP Morgan Global Mfg PMI platform, Tmall (FY17 vs FY16) 50 = expansion threshold Source: Company Source: MIDFR 3 MIDF EQUITY BEAT Friday, 16 June 2017 Synergistic value gain through vertical integration Oldtown is vertically integrated along its supply chain as it first started with the manufacturing of coffee beverage before venturing into café outlets business. This model has strengthened its competitive position in comparison to its close competitors that operates solely in either one business segment. This is despite the fact that its café outlet business recorded a contraction since FY12 due to the intense competition locally with the likes of ‘kopitiam’ operators like Paparich and Hailam Kopitiam as well as international coffee chain such as Starbucks and Coffee Bean. Nevertheless, the two business segment complement each other in terms of raw material procurement, support services, marketing campaign, promotion, business strategies and advertisement. In addition, having café outlets help the Oldtown brand to have a stronger presence especially in penetrating new market as it enables the group to increase the profile and awareness of the brand among consumers. Figure 9: Second outlet opening in China Figure 10: : First outlet in Hong Kong Source: Company Source: Company In line with the focus on China’s market, Oldtown plans to open 25 outlets within five years in the country in strategic location in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai in view of the country’s enormous potential and growing affluence amongst the urban population. Currently, it only operates two outlets in Jiangsu provinces. Its third outlet in China is targeted to open in 3QFY17 in Fujian. In addition, Oldtown launched its first outlet in Hong Kong at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) in October 16. We expect good performance from these outlets as the Oldtown brand is very well established in both markets looking at the recent sales growth of the FMCG segment from the Greater China region (Figure 6). We are positive on Oldtown’s strategy on going international amidst the current sluggish domestic spending. As the local F&B segment is going through a period of consolidation, the total number of café outlets has now been reduced to 234 in FY17 from 245 in FY16, we expect that the revenue contribution from overseas market will increase gradually from the current 12% in FY17 (Refer figure 11).
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