The Interim Report
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Elkhan Mekhtiev NATO -EAPC Research Fellowship 1999-2001 Project: “Security Policy in Azerbaijan” Tel/Fax: (99412) 675353 E-mail : [email protected] Contents Acknowledgments ………………………………………..2 Conclusion…………………………………………………2. Chapter One Introduction…………………………………………5 Chapter two 1.Internal political situation in Azerbaijan on the eve of the break of soviet union………………………………… 6 2.Development of situation in NK ……………….:……… .7 3.Situation in Armenian and Azerbaijan ……………………8 4.Violence in NK ………………………………………… 9 5.Struggle for full independence and recognition ………… 11 6.International activities ……………………………………16 7.Political turmoil and Armenian advances………………… 19 8.International and regional implications ……………… ….20 9.Foreign policy advancement………………………………24 Chapter 3. 1.Formation of Azerbaijan Army………………………… …27 2.Concept of Azerbaijan independent army ………………….28 3.Implications of CFE treaty …………………………………33 Chapter 4 1.Azerbaijan -Russia security relationship…………………… 34 2.CIS Collective Security Treaty ………………………………36 3.Gabala……………………………………………………… 39 4.Caucasus Four ……………………………………………… 40 5.Azerbaijan-Iran relations………………………………………41 6.Caucasus Stability Pact ………………………………………..41 7.Security relations with Azerbaijan and NATO…………………43 8.GUUAM…………………………………………………… …47. 9.Azerbaijan -US security Dialog …………………………… …49 Chapter 5 2 Table: Russian arms to Armenia ………………………………. .51 Bibliography …………………………………………………… …53 Acknowledgments First and foremost I would like to thank Dr. Charles Fairbanks, Director of Central Asia Institute, Johns Hopkins University ,Washington, DC for hosting me at their Institute and for his valuable advice and help to meet in various governmental agencies, universities ,research centers and as well as with experts in DC area. I also thank Hagani Huseynov - military analyst for his helpful comments. Special thanks to the library personnel of Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan and to my son Ulvi for their assistance in searching materials. Conclusion The complexity for Azerbaijan and as well as the countries of South Caucasus for the researched period has been characterized by the mixture of different factors including pro-independence movements, formation of sovereign nationhood and at the same time the periods of violent conflicts between and inside the countries. The mixture of these three major elements have allowed to both internal and external forces to play their own game due to sensitivity of those issues. Internal disturbances and coup attempts have been instrumental for changing power, instability and waves of violence has served as impediment for development of regional cooperation. The weapons inherited from the Soviet Union had served not for security but for military confrontation in both interstate and ethnic wars causing security disaster we are facing now. The violent confrontation has put the integrity and security of the countries in uncertainty and the arms race and armament has polarized the countries of the region and an idea of security had been equated with armament. Globally, collapse of the soviet military has been accompanied by the collapse of the soviet union mixing complex military political development and leaving the countries of the south Caucasus under the ruins of these two mighty institutions. To keep and develop the independent statehood in a complex environment with the collapsed structures of social and economic life with the inexperienced politicians of post soviet era has faced tremendous difficulties. In case of Azerbaijan where the mixture of all these elements 3 plus military operations inside the country have turned the country into the disastrous situation which could at the end lead to dismemberment of Azerbaijan Republic. Azerbaijani strong pro-independence movement has turned the history of the country towards the full independence and the removal of foreign troops from the country had created new, different situation from its neighbors in its international politics. The current situation in Georgia which is aspiring for its independence has showed that Azerbaijan had distanced itself and ensured its independence leaving less direct leverages to be intervened and pressured. The military activities inside the country and violation of its international borders and occupation of large part of the country and flow of refugees has brought the country on the brink of failure in mid 1993. Political turmoil, absence of order, demoralized army as part of society and lost hopes had been good chance for advancement of Armenian forces into the deep areas receiving inadequate response. The cease fire agreement has turned the military plans into the political and required the time to resist and mobilize again the existing resources. The question of establishing foreign bases has been speculated as a loss of independence and political leadership did not risk to compensate the issue with the assurances on return of occupied territories. Chechen war and strained relations with Russia distanced Azerbaijan from the traditional space and stimulated for seeking its own ways of development. Here Russian military assistance to Armenia and Azerbaijani strong arguments against Russia’s armament of Armenia had given additional stimuli and reason for pursuing Azerbaijani own interests in the international arena. Alignment of GUUAM countries and initiating of regional projects from Europe to Central Asia bypassing Russia has been the result of division of interests in the region. Seeking new regional structures with the possible security dimensions and active cooperation with NATO structures for ensuring the security of the country has been instrumental for the past years. Building of the border troops, restructuring of the army similar to NATO standards, training of officers in Turkish military schools has been strengthening elements of Azerbaijanian security . However, as analysis show for ensuring the security of the newly emerged country the necessity of internal security is significant. The issue is being debated in Azerbaijan since the authoritarian style of governance is not the source for long term security and stability of the country. Absence of rule of law, deficiencies of tax policy, corruption and bribery are the impediments for strong economy and strengthened statehood. Rigged parliamentary and presidential election do not complement the foreign policy objectives of Azerbaijan for ensuring effective security and sovereignty of the country. Distribution of income, lack of institutionalized mechanisms for resolution of conflicts, lack of power sharing mechanisms and conditions for peaceful transfer of power are also challenges of Azerbaijani security . Military build up in the region and accumulated huge amount of weapons in Azerbaijani occupied lands has been serving for long term insecurity in the region. Highly politicized society and attachment of people to their own land makes it extremely likely for resuming military activities in the region The research has discovered stationing of powerful 4 weapons in the hand of nationalistic elements whose only argument is the weapon that can work out any time. With the presence of huge arsenal of opposition Armenian weapons inside Azerbaijan one can not speak about the security of Azerbaijan Republic. If we add the devastated weapons stationed in Armenia proper we would see the picture of warehouse of weapons in a small territory. Those weapons have already had undermined Azerbaijani state security leaving uncontrolled of 120 km international border with Iran and more than that with Armenia proper. The study concludes that there should be effective international mechanism for intervention and eliminating of illegally held weapons. In this respect, Armenia- Azerbaijani confrontation has to be resolved within the context of security of independent countries limiting the number of weapons for both nations and removing and eliminating of illegally kept weapons in the uncontrolled NK area. With this regard the proposed idea of Caucasus security pact which envisioned the removal of foreign troop s and signing of bilateral security pact among the Caucasian nations namely Azerbaijan and Armenia would serve the ground for the security of these nations. There would be no security if the countries of the region would not look at the security of their neighbor as their own security. The region’s people are so close psychologically, culturally and geographically that forcing to be in insecurity of one nation at the expense of other is not perceivable and would serve for new source of instability. As armenian defense minister said before the parliament that “there are territories that we occupied and we must not be ashamed1 of that. The territories were occupied for the sake of our national security” Will that provide lasting security in the region? Such a confrontational approach predicts that the region’s security is still hanged in balance. Investment in energy resources of Azerbaijan and to Azerbaijan’s economy which totals up to eight billion and proposed pipeline for the transportation of Caspian energy resources would create additional concerns for the security of Azerbaijan, capability and resources for providing is highly debatable due to absence of comprehensive accord for its realization. Complex processes going on in the north Caucasus and unsolved confrontation between Russia and Chechen leaders and unpredictability of the development in that front could be additional sources of greater insecurity in the future If the conflict would