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US Automotive Presentation to Detroit CFA Society

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US Automotive Presentation to Detroit CFA Society Global Securities Research January 13, 2014 Presentation to Detroit CFA Society US Automotive Colin Langan Analyst Tel: +212 713 9949 [email protected] This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON SLIDE 20 UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Presentation Outline • US auto sales outlook • US market share outlook • Europe auto sales outlook • Global auto sales outlook • Historical sector valuations • GM – Buy Thesis • VC – Buy Thesis • Ford – Buy Thesis • Auto dealers – Sell Thesis • Questions 1 2013 SAAR 15.5m; 2014 Forecast 16.0m We forecast 2014 SAAR of 16.0m and 2015 SAAR of 16.2m Our 2014 forecast implies ~3% y/y growth, slower than the ~11% CAGR over the last 4 years Our forecast is consistent with UBS econometric model forecast • U of M Index of Consumer Confidence (79% correlation) • Used Vehicle Pricing (45% correlation) US Auto Sales History and Forecast 20 20.0 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 18 16.2 18.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.5 14.4 16 14.2 16.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.7 14 12.3 14.0 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.5 10.4 12 10.4 12.0 10 10.0 8 8.0 6 6.0 4 4.0 2 2.0 - '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14E '15E - 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.4 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.3 8.7 8.5 6.4 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.5 10.0 11.0 11.2 10.6 8.9 8.5 8.0 9.1 10.3 11.0 11.4 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.3 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.7 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.6 6.8 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 10.8 13.0 14.5 15.0 13.8 11.2 10.5 10.4 12.1 14.2 15.4 16.1 14.9 15.5 14.5 13.9 12.3 12.9 13.9 15.1 14.7 15.1 15.1 15.5 16.9 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.9 16.9 16.516.113.210.411.612.714.415.516.016.2 Source: Wards, UBS 2 Slowing Growth, But Still Positive Last Prior Mixed Leading Indicators Auto Industry Indicators Current Prior Year M/M Y/Y Update Month • Manheim used car prices near record highs and likely fall with higher lease returns US Sales Trend Dec-13 15.3 16.30 15.2 U of M Conditions for Buying New Dec-13 134 120 130 • U of M solid but only slightly above historic average Manheim Index Nov-13 122.4 122.3 122.6 • Interest rates likely rise Used CPI Nov-13 1.487 1.501 1.475 UBS Survey Financing Dec-13 15% 16.0% 22% Underlying fundamentals still solid Incentives (Autodata) Nov-13 2,667 2,574 2,490 • Still recovering from worst decline in 70 years (2009) Average New FICO Score Nov-13 631 635 655 • Record vehicle age Macro Indicators Unemployment Nov-13 7.0% 7.3% 7.8% • Housing & employment support growth Housing Starts Nov-13 1.091 0.889 0.842 • Only approaching "normalized" level of sales Source: FactSet, CNW, AutoData, UBS Manheim Index vs. Used CPI U of M Index: Conditions for Buying New Vehicle Auto Credit Availability 90% 140 1.70 180 80% 130 160 Tighter More Lenient 1.60 70% 120 1.50 140 60% 50% 110 1.40 120 40% Decade Avg 100 1.30 100 30% 90 1.20 80 20% 10% 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% Manheim Used CPI 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 M-07 M-08 M-09 M-10 M-11 M-12 M-13 +/- 1 Std Dev Buying Conditions 3M Avg Source: Manheim Consulting, Source: UBS Dealer Survey Source: U of M Consumer Survey US Department of Labor, UBS 3 Normalized Demand 16m to 17m Normalized US Sales Outlook Bottoms up analysis points to Source 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E "normalized" demand of 16m to 17m Scrappage 11.6 12.8 12.2 13.1 13.2 13.3 New Drivers 2.3 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Density 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 "Normal" US Sales15.115.615.816.716.817.0 US Sales Estimate 11.7 12.7 14.5 15.5 16.0 16.2 Ending Density 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 Source: Polk, Dept of Transportation, UBS Logarithmic trend (more appropriate vs. Linear) also suggests a 16m "normalized" demand Auto Sales Trend - Linear Auto Sales Trend - Logarithmic/Growth 19,000 2 19,000 R = 65% R2 = 56% 17,000 2.5m 17,000 2.2m 2.1m 15,000 15,000 2.1m 2.8m 6.4m 2.0m 3.0m 1.7m 13,000 5.2m 13,000 3.3m 11,000 2.4m 11,000 UBS 9,000 UBS 9,000 Estimates Estimates 7,000 7,000 5,000 5,000 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011E 2013E 2015E 2011E 2013E 2015E Base Case Linear (Actual) Base Case Log. (Actual) Source: Wards, UBS Source: Wards, UBS 4 US MarketShare Source: Wards Others Mitsubishi Mazda Daimler Porsche BMW / Audi VW /Kia Hyundai Japan 3Nissan Honda Toyota Ford 34.8%GM Assembler 35.5% 33.8% 30.1% 2008 32.2% 2009 32.2% 2010 32.3% 2011 31.6% 32.4% 2012 32.2% YTD bp 10 YTDbp 70 12/12 11/13 12/13 y/y y/y 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 0.0% Source: Wards US market long-term share evolution US marketlong-term share 1980 1981 Detroit 3 Detroit 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%10.8%16.8% 14.0% 11.1%14.2% 17.0%22.4% 14.0% 10.6% 15.3% 15.3% 19.9% 14.0% 16.5% 9.0% 12.9% 19.1% 14.0% 16.6% 9.9% 14.4% 19.7% bp 0 15.3% 9.9% 14.4% 18.0%bp 0 15.3% 14.4% 9.8% 18.0% 15.7% 14.4% 17.9% 9.8% 15.5% 14.4% 18.2% 9.4% 15.0% 14.1% 17.1% 10.0% 15.6% 17.0% bp 0 bp 0 bp 40 bp -30 bp 0 bp 20 bp 20 bp -120 0.7%2.0%1.9% 0.5%0.2% 2.0%2.3% 2.0% 0.5%2.4% 0.2% 2.0%5.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.6% 2.8% 0.2% 2.0%7.2% 7.1% 2.3% 2.1% 0.4% 3.1% 0.2% 1.9% 7.4% 7.7% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 3.5% 0.2% 1.9% 7.9% 8.9% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 4.0% 0.2% 1.8% 8.2% 8.7% 2.4% 2.2% 0.3% 4.0% 0.3% 2.0% 7.9% 8.7% 2.4% 0.5% 2.3% 3.6% 1.7% 0.2% 7.9% 8.1% 3.0% 3.2% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4% 1.7% 8.0% 2.9% 7.3% 2.7% bp 0 bp -10 3.6% 0.2% 8.2% 7.3% bp 10 3.3%bp 20 bp -30 3.8% bp 0 8.6% 7.1%bp 40 bp 0 bp -40 bp 0 bp -60 8.1%bp 0 bp -60 bp -20 bp 10 bp 80 Japan 3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 European 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 MarketShare Vehicle US Light 2001 Korean 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Others 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2012 2013 YTD Month 1980 Source: Wards 1981 GM and Ford long-termmarketshares GM and Ford 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 GM 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Ford 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5 GM: New vehicle launches in the last 12 months GM: Vehicle Launch Summary Q1 2013 to Q1 2014 Brand Product Segment QTR % Cadillac CTS Mid-Size Car Q3 2013 2% Cadillac CTS Mid-Size Sports Car Q1 2014 0% Cadillac ELR Compact Car Q4 2013 New Cadillac Escalade Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 1% Cadillac Escalade ESV Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 0% Chevrolet Corvette Compact Sports Car Q3 2013 1% Chevrolet Silverado Full-Size Pickup Q2 2013 13% Chevrolet Silverado HD Full-Size Pickup Q1 2014 4% Chevrolet Suburban Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 2% Chevrolet Tahoe Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 3% GMC Sierra Full-Size Pickup Q2 2013 5% GMC Sierra HD Full-Size Pickup Q1 2014 1% GMC Yukon Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 1% GMC Yukon XL Full-Size SUV Q1 2014 1% Total General Motors 33% Source: Global Insight, UBS estimates 6 Ford: New vehicle launches in the last 12 months Ford: Vehicle Launch Summary Q1 2013 to Q1 2014 Brand Product Segment QTR % Ford Transit Full-Size Van Q1 2014 5% Ford Transit Connect Compact Van Q4 2013 2% Lincoln MKC Compact CUV Q4 2013 0% Total Ford 7% Source: Global Insight, UBS estimates 7 European Sales: Expect a Modest Recovery from Trough Levels We forecast European auto sales to be up 3% in 2014 2013 Est.
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