frenchph [printed: March 23, 2011 11:48 AM] [saved: October 4, 2012 4:46 PM] S:\EDITORIAL INBOX\Reports\Nordics-SA-PF.ppt Global Securities Research March 2014 Global Economic Outlook A world redefined Larry Hatheway Chief Economist Tel: +44 20 7568 4053
[email protected] This document has been prepared by UBS Limited March 2014 ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON SLIDE 23 0 frenchph [printed: March 23, 2011 11:48 AM] [saved: October 4, 2012 4:46 PM] S:\EDITORIAL INBOX\Reports\Nordics-SA-PF.ppt Challenging the received wisdom Just a few short years ago… …becoming Financial crisis, de-leveraging American transformed Eurozone crisis European renewal Age of austerity Yep, an age of austerity BRICs Cracks in the façade Commodity super cycles Not living up to expectations Japan’s lost decades ‘Abenomics’ Currency wars Emerging currency vulnerability Occupy Wall Street Soaring profits, regressive taxes Global imbalances solved Return of global imbalances? 1 frenchph [printed: March 23, 2011 11:48 AM] [saved: October 4, 2012 4:46 PM] S:\EDITORIAL INBOX\Reports\Nordics-SA-PF.ppt Global outlook frenchph [printed: March 23, 2011 11:48 AM] [saved: October 4, 2012 4:46 PM] S:\EDITORIAL INBOX\Reports\Nordics-SA-PF.ppt Global economic forecast summary • Following a 2.5% expansion in 2013, global GDP growth is expected to pick up to 3.3% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015, albeit still below trend. • Cyclical leadership has shifted to developed economies. The biggest change is in the Eurozone, where after a contraction of (0.4%) in 2013, we forecast recovery to 1.1% growth in 2014.