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Acquisition of CITIC Assets Would Be Accretive to Valuation and EPS

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Acquisition of CITIC Assets Would Be Accretive to Valuation and EPS July 1, 2016 COMPANY UPDATE China Overseas Land (0688.HK) Buy Equity Research Acquisition of CITIC assets would be accretive to valuation and EPS What's changed Investment Profile On June 29, 2016 COLI provided more details around the proposed Low High acquisition of CITIC’s property assets (see our March 14, 2016 report, Growth Growth Returns * Returns * “Substantial scale uplift from acquisition of CITIC property assets”). Multiple Multiple Volatility Volatility Implications Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th The proposed asset package includes 126 projects (by phases) located in 25 China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) Chinese cities. If successful, COLI would expand its presence to 55 cities from Asia Pacific Property Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment 48 currently (including COGO) and would also increase its exposure to tier-3 profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. cities. We believe this acquisition would be a timely replenishment of COLI’s land bank. While we take no view on the likelihood of the deal closing, for Key data Current Price (HK$) 24.50 illustrative purposes we estimate: 1) gross asset value of HK$119bn compared 12 month price target (HK$) 29.20 to HK$131bn as forecasted by DTZ |Cushman & Wakefield (the valuer) at the end Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 200,226.7 / 25,809.2 Foreign ownership (%) -- of April, 2016; 2) 4% accretion to end-16E NAV (to HK$33.68) after factoring in net debt and a larger share capital; 3) a 16%/20%/20% increase in COLI’s 2016E- 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EPS (HK$) 2.91 3.37 3.89 3.52 2018E contract sales but a lower boost to underlying profit (6%/14%/16%) EPS growth (%) 1.9 15.8 15.4 (9.5) given the lower margins of CITIC’s property assets (although we would expect EPS (diluted) (HK$) 3.38 3.37 3.89 3.52 EPS (basic pre-ex) (HK$) 3.61 3.37 3.89 3.52 margins to improve in later years as COLI has superior expense control and a P/E (X) 8.6 7.3 6.3 7.0 P/B (X) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 lower cost of financing). In terms of EPS, we forecast 5% dilution in 2016 EV/EBITDA (X) 6.4 4.5 2.7 1.5 followed by accretion of 2% in 2017 and 4% in 2018; 4) net gearing at end-16E Dividend yield (%) 3.7 2.8 3.2 2.9 ROE (%) 20.5 16.2 16.4 13.2 of 12% vs. our current 7% estimate. If we applied the same 10% discount to NAV as we do to derive our target price this would imply a 2016E-17E average Price performance chart P/B of 1.4X (vs. a 17.8% underlying ROE), which would still be a 30% premium 28 15,000 to our off-shore coverage target price-implied PB/ROE trend line. 27 14,000 26 13,000 25 12,000 Valuation 24 11,000 Without incorporating the proposed transaction in to our estimates, COLI trades 23 10,000 at a 29% discount to end-16E NAV, a historical low P/B (ex. revaluation gains) of 22 9,000 21 8,000 1.2X (2016E) and a P/E of 6.8X. We continue to view valuation as attractive and we 20 7,000 maintain our Buy rating and 12-month NAV based price target of HK$29.2. Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 China Overseas Land & Investment (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R) Key risks Weaker than expected margins / sales; a macro hard landing. Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (0.2) (9.9) (7.8) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Rel. to Hang Seng China Ent. Index 3.1 (0.1) 37.4 Asia Pacific Buy List Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/30/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Yi Wang, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Jill Guan covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +86(21)2401-8921 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research July 1, 2016 China Overseas Land (0688.HK) China Overseas Land: Summary Financials Profit model (HK$ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet (HK$ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Total revenue 148,074.4 165,287.0 194,755.0 185,733.4 Cash & equivalents 102,445.6 125,095.0 147,805.2 199,401.9 Cost of goods sold (105,762.8) (112,145.2) (129,663.3) (126,092.6) Accounts receivable 17,238.4 19,242.2 22,672.8 21,622.5 SG&A (4,125.2) (3,783.5) (4,456.7) (4,341.5) Inventory 210,894.1 203,499.0 157,994.3 96,511.5 R&D -- -- -- -- Other current assets 10,972.2 12,069.4 13,276.3 14,604.0 Other operating profit/(expense) 538.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 341,550.3 359,905.6 341,748.7 332,139.9 EBITDA 38,724.8 49,358.3 60,635.0 55,299.3 Net PP&E 1,223.0 1,584.8 2,002.7 2,372.3 Depreciation & amortization (87.9) (99.3) (125.5) (148.7) Net intangibles 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 EBIT 38,636.9 49,259.0 60,509.5 55,150.6 Total investments 17,036.8 23,906.1 31,225.3 37,664.9 Interest income 985.9 1,024.5 1,251.0 1,478.1 Other long-term assets 67,362.1 74,026.9 76,132.2 77,476.1 Interest expense (574.0) (539.9) (403.6) (228.8) Total assets 427,236.7 459,488.0 451,173.4 449,717.7 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 976.6 1,277.3 1,474.1 1,400.9 Others 8,797.7 2,331.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 36,222.5 38,408.4 44,408.2 43,185.2 Pretax profits 48,823.1 53,351.8 62,830.9 57,800.7 Short-term loans 7,269.5 7,269.5 7,269.5 7,269.5 Income tax (14,772.3) (18,851.1) (22,983.7) (21,347.5) Other current liabilities 70,200.9 87,038.4 80,556.1 80,817.4 Minorities (738.8) (1,227.5) (1,451.2) (1,717.1) Total current liabilities 113,692.9 132,716.4 132,233.8 131,272.1 Long-term debt 108,186.8 93,568.6 53,568.6 23,568.6 Net income pre-preferred dividends 33,312.1 33,273.2 38,396.0 34,736.1 Other long-term liabilities 8,744.0 8,744.0 8,744.0 8,744.0 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 116,930.8 102,312.6 62,312.6 32,312.6 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 33,312.1 33,273.2 38,396.0 34,736.1 Total liabilities 230,623.7 235,028.9 194,546.4 163,584.7 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 33,312.1 33,273.2 38,396.0 34,736.1 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 191,557.5 218,176.1 248,893.0 276,681.8 EPS (basic, pre-except) (HK$) 3.61 3.37 3.89 3.52 Minority interest 5,055.4 6,282.9 7,734.1 9,451.1 EPS (basic, post-except) (HK$) 3.61 3.37 3.89 3.52 Total liabilities & equity 427,236.7 459,488.0 451,173.4 449,717.7 EPS (diluted, post-except) (HK$) 3.38 3.37 3.89 3.52 BVPS (HK$) 19.43 22.13 25.24 28.06 DPS (HK$) 0.920.670.780.70RNAV (HK$ mn) -- 319,846.0 342,757.9 -- Dividend payout ratio (%) 25.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 RNAVPS (HK$) -- 32.44 34.76 -- Free cash flow yield (%) 16.3 24.4 32.7 38.5 Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Ratios 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Sales growth 6.9 11.6 17.8 (4.6) ROE (%) 20.5 16.2 16.4 13.2 EBITDA growth 5.6 27.5 22.8 (8.8) ROA (%) 8.0 7.5 8.4 7.7 EBIT growth 5.7 27.5 22.8 (8.9) ROACE (%) 17.5 16.7 21.2 24.7 Net income growth 22.5 (0.1) 15.4 (9.5) Inventory days 790.3 674.4 508.8 368.4 EPS growth 8.5 (6.5) 15.4 (9.5) Receivables days 39.7 40.3 39.3 43.5 Gross margin 28.6 32.2 33.4 32.1 Payable days 208.8 121.5 116.6 126.8 EBITDA margin 26.2 29.9 31.1 29.8 Net debt/equity (%) 6.6 (10.8) (33.9) (58.9) EBIT margin 26.1 29.8 31.1 29.7 Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM NM NM NM Cash flow statement (HK$ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 33,312.1 33,273.2 38,396.0 34,736.1 P/E basic (X) 8.6 7.3 6.3 7.0 D&A add-back 87.9 99.3 125.5 148.7 P/B (X) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 Minorities interests add-back 738.8 1,227.5 1,451.2 1,717.1 EV/EBITDA (X) 6.4 4.5 2.7 1.5 Net (inc)/dec working capital 16,026.0 7,577.2 48,073.8 61,310.2 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 2.8 3.2 2.9 Other operating cash flow (11,514.4) 18,788.9 (5,929.8) (633.7) Cash flow from operations 38,650.4 60,966.2 82,116.7 97,278.3 Underlying valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Capital expenditures (113.0) (461.2) (543.4) (518.2) Underlying profit (HK$ mn) 28,722.6 33,273.2 38,396.0 34,736.1 Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS (HK$) 2.91 3.37 3.89 3.52 Divestitures 88.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 806.6 (12,256.9) (7,950.4) (6,382.6) Underlying ROE (%) 17.7 16.2 16.4 13.2 Cash flow from investments 782.4 (12,718.1) (8,493.8) (6,900.8) Underlying ROA (%) 6.9 7.5 8.4 7.7 Underlying ROACE (%) 15.1 16.7 21.2 24.7 Dividends paid (common & pref) (5,423.3) (6,654.6) (7,679.2) (6,947.2) Underlying P/E (X) 8.6 7.3 6.3 7.0 Inc/(dec) in debt 19,052.2 (14,618.2) (40,000.0) (30,000.0) Underlying dividend payout (%) 31.7 20.0 20.0 20.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 42,800.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS growth (%) 1.9 15.8 15.4 (9.5) Other financing cash flows (53,263.7) (4,325.9) (3,233.5) (1,833.5) Cash flow from financing 3,165.3 (25,598.7) (50,912.7) (38,780.7) Total cash flow 42,598.1 22,649.4 22,710.2 51,596.7 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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