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Eastern Europe ~ United States ll~~ Department of " Agriculture Eastern Europe Economic Research Service Supplement 3 to WAS-27 Review of Agriculture in 1981 and Outlook for 1982 Eastern Europe: Review of Agriculture in 1981 and Outlook for 1982. East Europe-USSR Branch, International Econem­ ics Division, Economic Research Service. Supplement 3 to WAS 27. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. ABSTRACT Agricultural production in 1981 increased slightly from the depressed 1980 level but continued well below the records set in the late seventies. Corn, sugar beet, potato, and tobacco production increased,, wheat production fell, and oilseed production remained at about the previous year's level. Meat produc-~ tion fell 4 percent. The value of U.S. agricultural exports to the region fell by nearly a quarter to $1.8 billion and further declines are expected in 1982. Keywords: Eastern Europe, Poland, Romania, crops, livestock, trade, credit. FOREWORD The agricultural situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated sharply in 1981. In Poland, shor­ tages of fertilizer, seeds, plant protection agents, and machinery spare parts were widely reported in the spring. Feed supplies were insufficient to support animal herds. Agricultural policy re­ forms followed the formation of Rural Solidarity, but before these reforms could take effect, deterioration in the general economy, shortages of foreign exchange, loss of confidence in the pro­ curement system, and finally, in the zloty itself, set the stage for the imposition of martial law in December. Further deterioration in the food situation is a clear possibility. In Romania, severe food shortages led to the imposition of rationing late in the year. In Czechoslovakia, shortfalls in production of grain and forage crops have led planners to conclude that a reduction in animal herds is preferable to the continued drain on foreign exchange for large grain imports. In most of Eastern Europe, the official policies implemented or reemphasized in 1981 call for reducing dependence on imported grain. Thomas A. Vankai directed and coordinated preparation of this report. Sections were written by Edward Cook, Robert Cummings, and Thomas A. Vankai. Sonya Glenn assisted in the compila­ tion of statistical data. Information submitted by the U.S. Agricultural Counselors and Attaches in Belgrade, Berlin, Bucharest, Vienna, and Warsaw is acknowledged with appreciation. Statistical data in this report are taken from the yearbooks of the respective countries or from the yearbooks of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. Data on Albania are so scarce that Albania is not covered here. The International Economics Division's program of agricultural situation and outlook analysis and reporting includes the following regularly scheduled publications: the World Agricultural Si­ tuation and Outlook, published thl'ee times annually; regional reports on Asia, Africa, China, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Soviet Union, Western Europe, and the Western Hem­ isphere; the Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United-States, published bi-monthly; the Food Aid Needs and Availabilities Report, published semi-annually; and the Outlook for US. Agricultural Ex­ ports, published quarterly. Information on obtaining these publications is included in this report. We welcome any comments, suggestions, or questions concerning either this report or the' current agricultural situation in Eastern Europe. Responses should be directed to the East Europe-USSR Branch, International Economics Division, Economic Research Service, USDA, Room 314, 500 12th Street, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250. Our telephone number is 202-447- 8380. Anton F. Malish, Chief East Europe-USSR Branch International Economics Division Washington, D.C. 20250 June 1982 CONTENTS Page Summary Slowdown in Economic Growth To Continue . 1 Grain Production Down Slightly . 2 Wheat Output Declines Sharply . 3 Marketing and Distribution Problems Acute . 3 Fall Plantings Increased . 4 Oilseed Production Continues at Record Levels . 4 Oilseed Product Consumption Peaks . 4 Planting Intentions Show Little Change . 4 Performance of Other Major Crops Improves . 5 Sugar Beet and Sugar Production Up . 5 Potato Production Recovers . 5 Tobacco Production Rises . 5 Cotton Production Up Marginally . 5 Livestock Inventory Stable; Meat Production Declines . 6 Inventories Show Little Change . 6 Livestock Product Production Down . 6 Growth in Meat Consumption Halted . 6 Producer Prices Raised . 6 Private Sector Supported . 6 Moderate Growth Expected . .. 6 Foreign Trade Balance Improves; Financial Situation Deteriorates . 7 Trade Balance Improves . 7 Agricultural Trade Balance Negative . 7 Financial Situation Deteriorates . 8 Credit Difficulties Influence 1981 Commodity Trade . 8 U.S. Agricultural Trade with Eastern Europe Declines . 9 Agricultural Commodities Dominate U.S. Trade . 9 CCC Credit Use Up; Food Aid Extended to Poland . 10 1982 Outlook 11 Agricultural Policies Aim for Self-Sufficiency . 12 Local Management Authority Upgraded . 12 Fertilizer Use Stationary . 12 Prices Higher . 12 Private Production Encouraged . 12 Features Poland Faces Uncertain Future in Agriculture ••• 0. 0 •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ••••••••••• ' ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 14 Agricultural and Trade Problems in Romania ......................................................................... 17 Tables 1. Production of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1972-81 . 20 2. Area of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1972-81 . 22 3. Production of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual1972-81 . ..
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