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Final Report Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning Final Report Preparation of Terms of Reference for Country Development including Advising on Technical and Modern Technology for Mass Transit System Development in Bangkok and Surrounding Areas both Civil and Railway System Construction Technology September 2006 By Kasetsart University Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning Final Report Preparation of Terms of Reference for Country Development Including Advising on Technical and Modern Technology For Mass Transit System Development In Bangkok and Surrounding Areas Both Civil and Railway System Construction Technology September 2006 By Kasetsart University FINAL REPORT CONTENT Page Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Background 1-1 1.2 Structure of the Final Report 1-4 Chapter 2 Advising Support to Provide the Terms of Reference in 2-1 accordance with Government’s Policy to Establish Thailand Development Alliances in Bangkok Mass Transit Network Sector 2.1 Introduction 2-1 2.2 Government Objectives and Requirements 2-1 2.3 Background Information, Existing Concept and 2-3 Development Plan 2.4 Project Objectives and Scope of Works 2-6 2.5 Proposers’ Qualifications 2-24 2.5.1 General Qualifications 2-24 2.5.2 Qualification Document 2-25 2.6 Principles and Conditions for the Development 2-27 2.6.1 Technical Proposal 2-27 2.6.2 Financial Proposal 2-30 2.7 Evaluation Criteria 2-30 2.7.1 Technical Evaluation 2-30 2.7.2 Economic Benefits to the Project 2-33 Chapter 3 Assist and Advise Relevant Government Agencies in Preparation 3-1 of Tender Document for Mass Transit 3 Lines Project 3.1 Objective 3-1 3.2 Methodology and Outputs 3-1 3.2.1 Evaluation Procedure 3-2 Chapter 4 Advise to OTP on Technical and Modern Technology 4-1 i CONTENT (Cont’d) Page Chapter 5 Traffic Study, Ridership and Fare Revenue Forecast and 5-1 Property Development in the Vicinity of the Project Alignment 5.1 Traffic Volume Analysis and Ridership Forecast 5-1 5.1.1 Transportation Model 5-1 5.1.2 Calibration of Model for the Present Condition (Year 2006) 5-5 5.1.3 Details of Mass Transit Alignments 5-10 5.1.4 Ridership Forecast 5-17 5.2 Project Cost Estimation 5-23 5.2.1 Infrastructure Construction Cost and Train Operation 5-24 System Cost (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2.2 Rolling Stock Cost 5-28 5.3 Operation, Maintenance and Administration Cost (OMA Cost) 5-35 5.4 Economic Evaluation of the Project 5-42 5.4.1 Economic Feasibility Analysis Assumptions 5-42 5.4.2 Economic Cost Estimation 5-43 5.4.3 Project Benefit Estimation 5-43 5.4.4 Result of Economic Feasibility Evaluation 5-45 5.4.5 Sensitivity Analysis of the Project 5-47 5.5 Financial Viability Analysis at Constant Price 5-51 5.5.1 Analytical Framework 5-51 5.5.2 Calculation of FIRR at Constant Price 5-53 5.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis of FIRR 5-55 5.6 Land Development in the Areas Adjacent to Mass Rapid Transit 5-59 Alignments 5.7 Value Capture 5-64 ii CONTENT (Cont’d) Page Chapter 6 Advise on Common Ticketing Technology for the Bangkok 6-1 Mass Transit Network 6.1 Government Policy 6-2 6.2 Existing Technology 6-2 6.3 Experience from Other Cities 6-3 6.4 Status of Existing Systems in Bangkok 6-4 6.5 Implementation Strategy Options 6-5 6.5.1 Lead Organization 6-5 6.5.2 Organization Structures 6-5 6.5.3 Central Card Management Company 6-6 (Clearing House) 6.5.4 Fare Structures 6-6 6.5.5 Implementation Plan 6-6 6.5.6 Time Frame 6-6 6.5.7 Other Service Providers 6-8 6.6 Conclusions, Key issues and Potential Obstacles 6-8 6.7 Recommendations 6-9 iii Appendices (Separate Volume) Appendix A Advising Support to Provide the Terms of Reference in Accordance with Government’s Policy to Establish Thailand Development Alliances in Bangkok Mass Transit Network Sector Appendix A1 Procurement According to the Regulation of the Office of the Prime Minister Appendix B Assist and Advice Relevant Government Agencies in Preparation of Tender Documents for the 3 Mass Transit Lines Project Appendix B1 Principle Tasks of the Project Management for the Mass Transit System Implementation and Status of the 3 Mass Transit Lines Appendix B2 Sample of the Design and Build Tender Documents for the 3 Mass Transit Lines Project Appendix B3 Guidelines for Evaluation Criteria (Technical, Pricing and Financial Proposals) for the 3 Mass Transit Lines Project Appendix B4 Draft Evaluation Criteria for the 3 Mass Transit Lines Project Appendix B5 Evaluation Procedure Flowchart for the 3 Mass Transit Lines Project Appendix C Advise to OTP on Technical and Modern Technology Appendix C1 Comparison of Box Girder and U-shaped Viaduct Structures Appendix C2 Comparison of Design Criteria for Mass Transit System in Thailand and Other Countries Appendix C3 Guidelines for Economical Elevated Structure for MRT Appendix C4 Red Line Operational Considerations (including Airport Rail Link Extension and SRT Express Commuter Line) Appendix C5 Potential Cost Savings to the Purple Line (Bang Sue – Bang Yai) Appendix C6 Tendering Procedure for Design/Build Mass Transit Projects Appendix C7 Relocation of SRT Long Distance Terminal Stations to the Outer Ring – SWOT Analysis Appendix C8 Document Database in the Information Center iv Appendices (Cont’d) Appendix D Economic and Financial Analyses of the Project Appendix D1 Details of Mass Transit Network Alignments Appendix D2 Investment Costs for Civil Works and Operation System Appendix D3 Economic Analysis of the Project Appendix D4 Financial Evaluation at the Constant Price of the Project Appendix E Advise on Common Ticketing Technology for the Bangkok Mass Transit Network v LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1.1-1 Mass Transit System of 10 Lines for a Total Length of 329 Km. 1-2 2.3-1 City Development Plan for Solving the Traffic Problem 2-4 2.3-2 URMAP Master Plan for Bangkok and Surrounding Areas 2-5 2.4-1 Tentative Complete Mass Transit Network 2-6 2.4-2 Dark Red Line Alignment 2-8 2.4-3 Light Red Line Alignment 2-9 2.4-4 Green Line 1 Extensions Alignment 2-10 2.4-5 Green Line 2 Extensions Alignment 2-11 2.4-6 Blue Line Extension Alignment 2-12 2.4-7 Orange Line Alignment 2-13 2.4-8 Purple Line Alignment 2-14 2.4-9 Yellow Line Alignment 2-15 2.4-10 Pink Line Alignment 2-16 2.4-11 Brown Line Alignment 2-17 2.4-12 Red Line Alignment (Phaya Thai – Bang Sue – Rangsit) 2-19 2.4-13 Blue Line Alignment (Hua Lamphong – Bang Khae and 2-20 Bang Sue – Tha Phra) 2.4-14 Purple Line Alignment (Bang Yai – Bang Sue) 2-21 5.1-1 Framework of Transportation Model for BMA and Surrounding Areas 5-4 5.1-2 Mass Transit System of 10 Lines for a Total Length of 329 Km. 5-10 5.1-3 Schematic Diagram of Mass Transit Network of 10 Lines for a Total 5-16 Length of 329 Km. vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 5.1-1 Nationwide Consumer Price Index (Year 2002 = 100) 5-6 5.1-2 Retail Price of Petroleum Products in Bangkok 5-7 5.1-3 Current Bus Fare Structure (as of August 2006) 5-8 5.1-4 Result from eBUM Transportation Model for Various Fuel Factors 5-9 5.1-5 Result of Ridership Forecast from the Transportation Model for 5-19 the Base Case, Base Case Plus 3 Additional/ Extension Lines, Base Case Plus 7 Additional/ Extension Lines and Base Case Plus 3 Additional/ Extension Lines 5.1-6 Result of Ridership Forecast from the Transportation Model for 5-21 the Base Case Plus Each Line Separately 5.1-7 Summary of Ridership Forecast from the Transportation Model for 5-23 the Base Case Plus Each Line Separately 5.2-1 Summary of Unit Prices: Construction Cost and Costs of Rolling Stock 5-25 and Train Operation System (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2-2 Summary of Alignments, Distances, Type of Infrastructures and 5-27 Number of Stations for the 10 Mass Rapid Transit Lines 5.2-3 Preliminary Estimated Costs for Infrastructure Construction and Train 5-28 Operation System (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2-4 Estimate Cost of Rolling Stock: Base Case + 3 Additional Lines 5-29 (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2-5 Estimate Cost of Rolling Stock: Base Case + 7 Additional Lines 5-31 (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2-6 Estimate Cost of Rolling Stock: Base Case + 10 Additional Lines 5-33 (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.2-7 Estimate Cost of Rolling Stock: Base Case + Each Line Separately 5-35 (Year 2006 Constant Price) 5.3-1 Summary of Unit Costs for Operation, Maintenance and Administration 5-37 Cost (Year 2006 Constant Price) vii LIST OF TABLES (Cont’d) Table Page 5.3-2 Operation, Maintenance and Administration Cost and Major Repair/ 5-38 Rehabilitation Cost: Base Case + 3 Additional Lines 5.3-3 Operation, Maintenance and Administration Cost and Major Repair/ 5-39 Rehabilitation Cost: Base Case + 7 Additional Lines 5.3-4 Operation, Maintenance and Administration Cost and Major Repair/ 5-40 Rehabilitation Cost: Base Case + 10 Additional Lines 5.3-5 Operation, Maintenance and Administration Cost and Major Repair/ 5-40 Rehabilitation Cost: Base Case + Each Line Separately 5.4-1 Summary of the Economic Analysis of Mass Rapid Transit Networks, 5-45 Base Case + 3 Lines, Base Case + 7 Lines and Base Case + 10 Lines Scenarios 5.4-2 Summary of the Economic Analysis of Mass Rapid Transit Networks, 5-45 Base Case + Each Line Separately Scenarios 5.4-3 Result from Sensitivity Analysis, Base Case Plus 3 Additional Lines 5-48 Scenario 5.4-4 Result from Sensitivity Analysis, Base Case Plus 7 Additional Lines 5-49 Scenario 5.4-5 Result from Sensitivity Analysis, Base Case Plus 10 Additional Lines 5-50 Scenario 5.5-1 Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) at Constant Price, Base Case 5-53 + 3 Additional Lines Scenario 5.5-2 Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) at Constant Price, Base Case 5-54
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