V17, N41 Thursday, July 12, 2012 Mid-cycle Report: Romney coattails? GOP expected to win ’s EC votes, with down- ballot implications By BRIAN A. HOWEY PLAINFIELD, Ind. - Hoo- sier voters are facing two poten- tial epic tossup races this fall. Nationally, all indications are that the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney will go down to the wire. Likewise, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Rich- ard Mourdock and Democrat Joe Donnelly has all the characteris- tics of being a “Tossup” though the true character of the race won’t be known until mid-Septem- to maintain a big money advantage and time may be run- ber when the third Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground ning out for Gregg to be able to close what polling has Poll – likely to be the only independent media polling this showed to be leads ranging from 44-31 in a March Howey/ cycle – is published. DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, and over 20% in a The Indiana gubernatorial and congressional fields couple of recent partisan Republican polls. look to be less competitive. Republican Mike Pence won’t On the congressional front, only the 8th CD race release his fundraising totals until next Monday. Democrat John Gregg’s campaign isn’t saying. But Pence is expected Continued on page 4 The second tsunami By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE - The first wave of a tsunami stuns those hit, but the follow-up wave often reaches the high point because it builds upon the first devastation. I feel 2012 will have similar election impact. ‘‘In response to the infamous words of In Indiana, regardless of the na- the House leadership on the other side tional trends, I believe we are looking of he aisle at that time, we’ve now had at swinging back to huge GOP margins like Bush 43 over Gore (nearly 350,000 a chance to see what’s in it and the fact in a 50-50 national race), Bush 43 over remains we still don’t like it.” Kerry (500,000), Bush 41 over Duka- kis (430,000), Reagan over Mondale - U.S. Rep. (530,000), and Reagan over Carter on repealing Obamacare (400,000). The actual Republican vote, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

even for McCain, had this variation Democrats in the U.S. House, if both from 1980 to 2008: 1,245,000 to Democrats survive. In other words, 1,479,000 (2004). the congressional ballot like the presi- The exceptions in over 30 dential ballot is likely going to have a years are two. In 1992 Ross Pe- strong pull on the gubernatorial and www.HoweyPolitics.com rot received 456,000 votes. Clinton senate races. got almost the identical number as In spite of all the Democrat Carter in 1980 and similar to Gore in spin, Mike Pence will win somewhere Howey Politics 2000. Bush, however, dropped nearly between easily and overwhelmingly. Indiana 300,000 from the previous minimum, Nominating Vi Simpson was a huge is a non-partisan newsletter but he still won Indiana. Democrat mistake. John Gregg will based in Indianapolis. It was In 2008, McCain basically not be able to even pretend to not be founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. tied for the second largest Indiana a liberal. This is a year when being a GOP vote. But Obama was the first liberal is better than being the Devil, a Democrat in modern times to top one Nazi or an actual communist by maybe Brian A. Howey, Publisher million votes. In fact, he blew by it two points. Nor will Mike Pence will be Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington to 1.375 million. Total voters soared. underfunded. Jack E. Howey, editor Let me put it this way: An African- The Republicans have Beverly K. Phillips, associate American eligible to vote who didn’t tilted their slate southern with, well, probably never will. I do not think everybody: U.S. Senate, lieutenant editor re-election is the same as the historic governor, attorney general and super- racial breakthrough that 2008 repre- intendent of public instruction all make Subscriptions sented. Now Obama is mostly just a Mike’s Columbus address look like it $350 annually HPI Weekly liberal. borders on Michigan. No wonder he Furthermore, young voters moved closer to Indianapolis where $550 annually HPI Weekly and thought the wars were going to imme- the hills stop and most people live. I HPI Daily Wire. diately end, not be still lingering and think it is likely that the GOP holds the 'Call 317.627.6746 more of them. Not to mention that all south. I don’t think the Indy collar is those people who thought health care in play. That really puts pressure on was going to be “free” are feeling a bit Joe Donnelly to be a one-man army in Contact HPI deceived right now. populous northern Indiana. Howey Politics Indiana Who will the individual man- The first historic problem is 6255 Evanston Ave. date most impact? Young voters. I this: Democrats can survive Repub- Indianapolis, IN 46220 think President Obama drops down lican tides one way, but Joe chang- www.howeypolitics.com dramatically, below a million and pos- ing his name to “Joe Bayh” probably sibly down toward 950,000 or lower won’t work at this late date. Secondly, [email protected] like most Democrats, and maybe even lost to in 1980, 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 down to Dukakis levels at 861,000. even though he was an incumbent, 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 This impacts down the bal- and Evan only narrowly defeated Rob 'Washington: 703.248.0909 lot. In 2004, the Bush win made the Bowen and . Evan smoothly 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 Indiana GOP congressional delegation avoided Dan Coats in 2010 (as Dan 7-2. It consolidated 1994 Republican avoided Bayh in 1998). So even Evan gains when John Hostetler and I upset Bayh would not necessarily win this © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. incumbents, and David McIntosh year, Republican family feud or not. All rights reserved. Photocopy- won a Democrat open seat, swinging The second problem is that ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Indiana to a Republican majority of northern Indiana is not trending Dem- ing or reproducing in any form, Hoosiers in Congress. Mike Sodrel and ocratic. Remember, part of the reason Chris Chocola were the 2004 win- Joe is running for Senate is that the whole or part, is a violation of ners, as Todd Young will be (but as an 2nd Congressional District took lots federal law without permission incumbent), and likely Jackie Walorski of Republicans from my old district to from the publisher. v joins the other six Republicans. pad it for Jackie Walorski. If Joe is go- We will be back to Pete Vis- ing to fight for his life, it might as well closky and a different Carson as the be for the Senate. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

Brad Ellsworth had a similar view, although Joe licans will go from whispering “health care” to screaming is closer to the type who can pull upsets. But he will have “HEALTH CARE” and “SENATE CONTROL.” to fight to win his own district, will lose my home area Obama, of course, will also be a big asset for probably widely, win Visclosky’s district, lose Rokita’s by a Richard Mourdock. Mourdock will continue to benefit from wide margin, and get wiped out in the top parts of Susan media people constantly playing Colbert and not taking Brooks’ and Luke Messer’s new districts. I just don’t think him seriously, as Richard continues his steady march to the carrying Marion and Lake is a victory strategy. Senate. The bias is so great I honestly don’t think the me- Oh yes, what about the Lugar vote? Here is dia will ever wake up, and that bias really irritates voters. a prediction. Even if Joe gets every one of Lugar’s 261,000 One last comment on northern Indiana. The only votes I don’t think it will be enough to win. The margin is state legislative race that is likely to be competitive is Dem- likely to be larger than that. And I think it is safe to say he ocrat Win Moses in Fort Wayne, who with re-districting, for won’t get every Lugar vote, including Senator Lugar’s as the first time represents a clearly Republican district. He Lugar has said multiple times. is smart and an incredible fighter, who is just never really Lugar’s supporters, and the half of the likely fall defeated. But he could be in real trouble this time. v Republican vote that didn’t vote in the primary, will likely stall around, have doubts, but somewhere between Labor Souder is a former Republican Member of Congress. Day and election day, if there are still doubts, the Repub-

stantial dissatisfaction with Barack Obama’s performance in Romney, from page 1 office are keeping Mitt Romney competitive in the presi- dential race – but not by enough of a margin to overcome between freshman Republican Larry Bucshon and Democrat Obama’s stronger personal profile. The result: A dead heat Dave Crooks looks to be close. in voter preferences at the midsummer stage, with the With the 2012 election cycle a little past the prospect of an epic battle ahead.” halfway point, here is Howey Politics Indiana’s take on the While most Americans continue to disapprove of major races dotting the hot and dry Hoosier landscape: Obama’s handling of the economy, that’s not his only prob- lem. More than half fault him on health care and immigra- Presidential tion as well. Sixty-three percent say the country’s headed Romney is expected to win Indiana’s 11 Electoral in the wrong direction, an unhelpful view for an incumbent. College votes, just as John McCain was expected to in 2008 And among groups, he’s losing swing-voting independents (but didn’t). The difference is that Obama by a record 14 percentage points. made nearly 50 campaign appearances in The WP/ABC News poll came after a dismal Indiana during his primary battle with Hill- jobs report released last Friday, the third consecu- ary Clinton and again in the fall four years tive report that with a strong, dynamic challenger ago. While First Lady Michelle Obama will should have been the death knell for the incum- be in Indianapolis on July 22, few observ- bent. Gallup’s Frank Newport said on NPR this ers expect the President to be nearly the morning that since the bad jobs numbers were fixture he was on the campaign trail here. released last week, Obama has yet to see a poll The only way we will see the President decline on that subject. Gallup’s three-day rolling much is if the Donnelly/Mourdock Senate tracking has Obama up 47-45% today. race is in play and cued up to potentially But there is one other interesting piece decide majority control of the Senate. of data from the WP/ABC Poll: 75%t of Obama’s With Indiana’s jobless rate at 7.9% supporters say they mainly are for him, rather and standing at 8.2% nationally, the most than against his opponent. For Romney that shifts fascinating aspect of the presidential race dramatically – just 37% of his supporters mainly nationally is that Romney doesn’t have a are for him, while 59% say they’re chiefly op- lead. posed to Obama. Nationally, Obama has a Real Clear Politics com- The “wrong track” number, at 63%, is dangerous posite lead of 46.5% to 44.6% today. for Obama. But it stood at 83% in June 1992, a precursor But a Washington Post/ABC News Poll released to President George H.W. Bush’s defeat that November, and Tuesday had the race tied at 47%. Gary Langer, writing was at 70% in 1996, belying President Clinton’s reelection. for ABC News, observed, “Economic discontent and sub- In 2004, it stood at 55% four months before President HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

George W. Bush was reelect- president even if the economy’s ed. slow if 27% of the voters think What appears to be you as the challenger don’t have keeping Obama in the game a clear plan for improving the is that many Democrats and economy.” independents like him per- Polling shows national sonally. support for Obamacare is split. Greg Sargent, writing Andrew Kohut of Pew Research for the Washington Post’s notes that 45% approve, 45% Plumline blog, observes: disagree nationally, “but Republi- Obama leads on who un- can reaction is intensively nega- derstands the economic tive. Republicans are really very problems people are having, angry.” That intensity could help 51-40. Obama leads on who Romney. “The initial reactions are is more likely to stand up for not like the subsequent reactions. what he believes in, 52-36. The opinion grows,” Kohut said. Obama leads on who has “What has clearly hap- presented a clearer plan for pened is that Obama has dodged dealing with the economy a bullet,” Kohut said. A repeal situation, 47-35. And voters would have left Obama with the appear to narrowly side with perception that he “hasn’t ac- Obama’s economic vision: complished much.” But Romney is 48% say the federal govern- compromised on the issue since ment should spend money to he installed a similar program as encourage job creation, ver- governor of Massachusetts. sus 45% who say we should On the issue of the Bush hold down the deficit. And tax cuts, Americans think it is this is alsokey: A majority say more important to extend the the things Obama would do Bush-era tax cuts for families in a second term are more earning less than $250,000 a important than what he’s year, as President Obama pro- already done, 51-33. posed on Monday, than extending That kind of data them for all taxpayers, as advo- reinforces the popular perception of Romney that he has cated by congressional Republicans and Romney, according no core values, is malleable on the issues, and may lose to a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressio- slivers of Tea Party voters on issues like his waffling on nal Connection Poll. The public also favors Democrats’ plan immigration, and evangelicals who are uncomfortable with to create jobs through additional spending on infrastructure his Mormonism. In a close race, shaving a few percentage and retaining public-sector employees over the Republican points from these types of voters could mean the difference plan to cut taxes for businesses. between winning and losing. Kohut says that current Pew research identifies The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol sounded a warn- 32% of likely voters as Democrat (down from 36% in ing on Fox News Sunday. “President Obama had three 2008), just 24% identify themselves as Republicans (one disappointing months, but he’s holding his own. And if I of the lowest levels in history) and 38% view themselves were in the Romney campaign, that would worry me,” Kris- as independent, a 75-year high. “The numbers identifying tol said, citing numbers from a recent Fox News poll, which with the two major parties is contracting,” Kohut said. In a showed that just 41%of voters think the President has a general election Howey/DePauw Indiana sample taken on clear plan for improving the economy. “Not great for an March 26-27, 35% were Republican, 27% Democratic, 23% incumbent president – the economy is slow and you’re only independent, 8% independent/leans Republican, and 7% at 41-53.” But the numbers were even worse for Romney, independent/leans Democrat here in Indiana. Kristol pointed out. “Do you think his challenger, Gov. Rom- The forecasting models for the Times’ ney, has a clear plan for improving the economy or not? FiveThirtyEight blog give Romney an 86.2% chance of Yes 27, no 55. I don’t think you can beat an incumbent carrying Indiana. But it gives Obama a 66.6% chance of HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

winning the election and as important as it once was. a 10.6% chance of an Donnelly has raised less than Obama landslide. InTrade $400,000 in each of the last gives Obama a 56% three quarters, so this report chance at reelection. represents an uptick for him, Indiana Horse but it pales when compared to Race Status: Likely Mourdock’s quarter, which obvi- Romney. National Horse ously benefitted from his upset Race Status: Tossup of Lugar. Mourdock’s campaign is a U.S. Senate tale of contradictions. He won For the first time a landslide 61-39% primary de- as a U.S. Senate can- spite a lack of fundraising prow- didate, Mourdock finds ess. His campaign has made a himself with a sizable series of “amateur hour” stunts campaign money advan- ranging from being banned tage after reports reveal from the Indiana Republican he will post $1.6 million for Party data base, to the posting the second quarter, almost double the $900,000 Democrat of four different “presponses” to nominee Joe Donnelly will report on his FEC report. Indiana the U.S. Supreme Court’s Obamacare ruling that earned the Democrats tweeted late Monday afternoon that Donnelly candidate a dubious spot on “The Colbert Report.” will report $1.3 million cash on hand. It is unclear how But the outside money is poised to spill in. For much cash Mourdock will report. Mourdock, who toppled Chocola’s Club for Growth, a Mourdock loss would be dev- U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar in the May primary, has had lacklus- astating, pushing Indiana into the Tea Party Hall of Busts ter FEC reports throughout his candidacy, but won due to along with 2010 Senate races in Nevada and Delaware that almost $4 million from national sources, including almost prevented a GOP Senate majority. Thus, we find the GOP $2 million from the Club for Growth. Senate nominee poised for possible victory despite him and Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker noted his campaign. that while Mourdock touted the quarterly total, “They went Democrats have an ample supply of fodder, ranging silent when it came to cash on hand. How much of that did from Mourdock’s assault on the concept of “bipartisanship” they spend prior to the primary?” Parker noted that Wash- that played well to the Tea Party crowd, but perhaps not ington experts said Donnelly needed to post more than so much to independent voters. Indiana Democrats have a $750,000. “He blew past that,” Parker said. “Remember, library of tracker video with Mourdock making controver- Lugar never raised a million dollars in a quarter.” sial claims, ranging from his vote against raising the debt But the money spilling into a candidate-driven cam- ceiling, to positions on legislatures appointing U.S. sena- paign may not matter much. It will be the national money tors, Social Security and Medicare. This past week, Indiana from 527 Super PACs that will determine who wins. Democrats , who helped Mourdock win the nomination by Already Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS pumped in stoking the Lugar residency issue, have come at Mourdock more than $600,000 in June TV ads attacking Donnelly on hard on his legal challenge to the Chrysler/Fiat merger. behalf of Mourdock. Donnelly responded with a $270,000 On Tuesday, Democrats suggested that Mourdock response paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign might have violated Indiana’s open records law for politi- Committee. Former Indiana congressman Chris Chocola, cal purposes and filed a complaint with the Indiana public who now heads Club for Growth, told HPI in May, “We’ll access counselor. Mourdock claimed to have provided full continue to support Mourdock. We’ll continue to bundle disclosure of the costs of his suit to liquidate Chrysler, but contributions for him. We expect him to be in a very strong changed his story just one hour after being criticized for position. I think there will be an attempt by some in the those costs. Mourdock, in response to a Democratic request media and with Democrats that there will be a very com- filed in May, released “all legal invoices and any related bill- petitive race. I don’t think that’s the case.” Donnelly began ing documentation” from his lawsuit to force the liquidation airing a new ad today taking Mourdock to task for “yelling of Chrysler on June 29. Those documents included two from the bleachers.” It’s a $163,000 statewide buy on cable invoices placing the cost of his suit at $2.8 million. and broadcast set to run from yesterday through July 16. According to a letter from the treasurer’s office, So the money the campaigns actually raise isn’t Mourdock subsequently “sorted through additional billing documentation” and on July 9, faxing Chairman Parker a HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

July 2009 letter stat- in 30- and 60-second ing that the treasurer sound bites. would only be respon- It is unclear sible for $2.05 million whether Mourdock in legal fees less than has done a sufficient an hour after a press job of reaching out to conference focused on Lugar voters, who by a the full cost of Mour- 57-12% margin in the dock’s lawsuit. Six April and May Howey/ months later, Mour- DePauw Poll disap- dock’s Wall Street law proved of Mourdock. firm sent him a second The 261,000 Lugar $2.8 million invoice. voters constituted 39% “Richard Mour- of the primary. In a dock is hiding some- close race, losing even thing, and it’s apparent Democrat Joe Donnelly began running his second post-primary TV ad this a few percent of them that he has violated week, themed “nothing gets done by yelling from the bleachers.” could hurt Mourdock’s the spirit and letter of chances. the law,” said Parker. Parler told HPI “How hard is it to produce a full accounting of the cost of that Donnelly’s report “will raise eyebrows” with some his politically motivated lawsuit? Mourdock failed to comply prominent Republican contributors listed. with our open records request and falsely claimed that The nominee’s trump card there could be if his race they were making all billing documentation available. He’s is seen as a determinant factor in which party controls the shown bad faith with the public interest and bad judgment U.S. Senate. In that scenario, most Lugar voters, includ- with their tax dollars. Hoosier taxpayers deserve nothing ing the senator himself, would hold their nose and pull less than a full and open explanation of how much Mour- the Mourdock lever. That could be a double-edged sword, dock’s suit cost and why he filed it.” drawing in more Democratic Super PAC money on behalf of Donnelly is expected to make the 2009 auto rescue Donnelly. by the Obama administration the cornerstone of his cam- Every poll since the Howey/DePauw survey in paign against Mourdock. But this is no slam dunk. Mour- March (tied at 35%) has shown this race to be a draw. But dock led the ticket in 2010 in Howard County, home of the early polls can be illusions. The critical point in this race nation’s largest Chrysler industrial complex, and again in will come after Labor Day when new polls will reveal where the primary against Lugar. Many Hoosier Republicans at the race stands. If Donnelly can hang around within 2 or 3 least appear to be prepared to vote ideology as opposed to percentage points – or actually lead – then the race could economic interests. go down to the wire. If he falls behind, as Chocola predicts, But the March Howey/DePauw Poll revealed that by then that portends to a very bad year for Indiana Demo- a 51-44% edge, a majority of general election voters – and crats. more than 60% of independents – backed the auto rescue. Watch for waves of national money to be spent on This race could come down to whether Donnelly the Senate race in August and early September from Super and the Democrats can stoke up that issue and draw inde- PACs on both sides. At this point, we give a slight edge of pendent voters. Mourdock, though not enough to pull it out of the “tossup” The crosscurrent is Donnelly’s vote for the Afford- zone. Horse Race Status: Tossup able Care Act or “Obamacare.” Mourdock uses that vote against Donnelly every chance he gets and polling has Governor shown Obamacare wildly unpopular with Hoosier voters. If there is to be a competitive gubernatorial race, Many observers believed that Donnelly would have been in then early next week will be a huge moment for the John better position if Chief Justice Roberts had voted to strike Gregg campaign. He is going to have to show some robust down the individual mandate, shifting the fall election to fundraising after his lackluster $584,000 first quarter, some- what might replace Obamacare. Republicans have no active where in the $2 million range. Parker told HPI after the plan to do so. Now Donnelly will be left to defend his vote. primary that more money flows in the second quarter to He will try to make the case that while Obamacare as a uncontested primary candidates. whole is unpopular, many components of the law actually Thus far Pence has owned the skies. The India- draw considerable support. But that will be tough to do HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

napolis Star reported Obamacare gets a 33rd that Pence has spent repeal vote in House $1.4 million on his three By BRIAN A. HOWEY TV ads in INDIANAPOLIS - More than 30 U.S. House votes May and have taken place to repeal Obamacare. The one on June. Parker Wednesday officially making the issue an LP (long play) explained, passed virtually by party lines – 244-185 – with Hoosier “John Gregg Republicans rhetorically lining up to assail the law, while will never U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly voted once again with the minority. outspend It was strictly a show vote, designed for TV ads Pence.” He this summer and fall. The repeal has no chance of passing said that Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Gregg the U.S. Senate. while Pence will release crucial 2nd quarter fundraising num- But Hoosier Republicans took to the well of the had a three- bers sometime in the next few days. House and stated their case. to-one cash “ObamaCare is not merely a government takeover advantage at of health care, but – as many of us insisted during debates the end of March, that will be a more important number to on this floor two years ago – ObamaCare is a massive tax come out next week. “The most important number will be increase on everyday Americans and small business own- the cash-on-hand number,” Parker said, adding he expects ers,” said U.S. Rep. Mike Pence. “And it must be repealed. Gregg to go up on TV before Labor Day. “That’s when the Every day in Indiana I hear people tell me that ObamaCare race will begin.” Gregg and running mate Vi Simpson have is stifling our recovery. If it is not repealed in full, Hoosiers conducted an intense earned media campaign, tag-teaming will face higher health care costs and increased taxes. The across the state and in key media markets. But such efforts medical device tax alone could cost Indiana more than pale in comparison to Pence building his name ID in North- 2,000 jobs. ern Indiana and defining himself. “But the issue before us today is not just about On the issues front, Pence has discussed jobs and economic growth. It is about freedom. ObamaCare erodes vocational education, along with a regulatory moratorium. the freedom of every American, opening the door for the Gregg and Simpson have come out with jobs and Depart- federal government to legislate, regulate and mandate ment of Child Services proposals. nearly every aspect of our daily lives under the guise of its Pence had a miscue when reports emanating from taxing power. Left unchanged, ObamaCare will change this a House Republican Conference Committee revealed that country forever.” he had compared the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare U.S. Rep. Larry Bucshon, facing a competitive to the 911 terror attacks. Pence quickly apologized, saying, race against former Democratic legislator Dave Crooks, ex- “I never intended to minimize any tragedy our nation has plained, “I truly believe in my heart this law will not stand. faced, and I apologize.” But he refused to describe in detail For, in the end, the fate of our freedoms rests not in the what he called an “unfortunate statement.” hands of a president, a Congress or a court. For we are, Gregg milked the controversy for earned media, and have always been, and shall ever remain, a govern- saying, “Congressman Pence is a perfect example of what ment of the people, and by the people, and for the people. is wrong with politics today. He has the right to disagree And while this Congress this week will vote to repeal this with the Supreme Court, we all do. But for him to com- bill, I believe the American people will have their say on a pare a disagreement over healthcare to the deaths of day this fall.” 3,000 Americans goes far beyond the bounds of common Bucshon, a Newburgh heart surgeon, added, “It decency. To compare our legislative and judicial process to is necessary to repeal this near government takeover of a terrorist attack is deeply disturbing and wrong. Congress- our nation’s health care system. Eliminating the massive man Pence is out of touch and clearly does not have the tax increase on the middle class and restoring the $575 temperament or judgment Indiana needs. He just disquali- billion cut from Medicare are only two of the numerous and fied himself from this race.” critical reasons Obamacare needs to be repealed. After That could be fodder for Gregg TV ads this fall, the law is fully repealed we can focus on patient-centered, if he has the funds to capture the gross rating points he market- based reforms that lower costs and prevent gov- needs to put a dent in the warm and cozy Pence biography. ernment bureaucrats from coming between you and your Horse Race Status: Likely Pence v doctor.” HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

U.S. Rep. Marlin the Supreme Court’s decision to Stutzman said, “The patient- uphold President Obama’s health doctor relationship is built care tax, it is imperative for the on trust, not government Congress to act swiftly to reverse complexity. Unfortunately, this deeply flawed law. Not only the President’s health care does it represent a blatant gov- law puts unelected bureau- ernment intrusion into personal crats, like the Independent lives, but it also stands to be- Payment Advisory Board, come the largest middle class tax between patients and their increase in American history. With doctors. Americans deserve our national debt at nearly $16 choices, not top-down con- trillion, it would be irresponsible trols.” for us not to repeal a piece of Another freshman, legislation that stands to fiscally U.S. Rep. Todd Young, cut break the back of our embattled to the chase. “Simply put, economy.” this law is bad public policy,” First CD Republican Joel said Young. “It has not Phelps joined in, saying of Demo- done anything to control crat U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, the cost of health care, it “Once again, Representative Pete interferes with the doctor- Visclosky missed an opportunity patient relationship, and it is to reverse his previous votes in damaging to our economy favor of the oppressive new taxes at a time we can least afford this legislation will force on the it. Washington needs to ad- people of Indiana. His votes are dress the very real problems examples of poor decision-making that confront the American that result from three decades people –primarily the cost living in Washington, out of touch of, and access to, medical with those of us who live in Indi- care. This vote to repeal ana’s 1st Congressional District. the law is a first step toward Obamacare will not reduce health replacing Obamacare with care costs, eliminate waste, measures that actually improve quality of care, or protect control costs and increase seniors and the low income unin- access to care while pre- sured.” serving the best health Donnelly, one of the last care delivery system in the Democrats to vote for the mea- world. I look forward to working on those issues, and –in sure in March 2010, said, “The health care law includes contrast to how this law came about –in an open, public, good provisions that are already helping Hoosiers. Seniors and bipartisan way.” are paying less for prescription drugs and children with pre- And U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita explained, “The facts existing conditions like diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis are clear: ObamaCare will add trillions of dollars in new now have health coverage for the first time. Repealing the taxes, increase our $16 trillion national debt by hundreds of health care law would undo these benefits and negatively billions of dollars, cause millions of Americans to lose their impact millions of lives across the country.” health insurance, destroy jobs, increase health premiums, That prompted GOP Senate nominee Richard Mour- impose new costs on states, and penalize American inno- dock to say that Donnelly “sided with the president and vation. The American people must continue to make their against Hoosiers and Indiana business.” voices heard. Washington bureaucrats do not know best. The cameras rolled. There was outrage expressed. Personal health care decisions should be made between in- There was far more focus on the dangers of a law, most dividuals and their doctors. That’s why we must fully repeal of which hasn’t even gone into effect yet. While there was ObamaCare and pass step-by-step, innovative reforms such some talk about what might “replace” the repealed law, as my State Health Flexibility Act.” that was not the focus on Wednesday. Outgoing U.S. Rep. Dan Burton explained, “With The focus was clearly on Nov. 6. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

On Wednesday, Gregg made stops in South Bend, Pence begins 4th TV Hancock County and Porter County, while Vi Simpson held a presser in Terre Haute. “They were pounding the pavement,” said Altman. ad beginning today “We’ve got both of them out and they are getting much By BRIAN A. HOWEY exposure.” INDIANAPOLIS - Republican Mike Pence will begin Altman noted that while the Pence campaign has airing his fourth TV today, highlighting what he calls “Indi- articulated an emphasis on children, including the nomi- ana’s extraordinary commitment to military service.” nee’s June 9 Republican Convention speech. The Pence campaign said the commercial is de- Pence cited “improving the health, safety and well-being of signed to “honor Hoosiers’ dedication to serve.” Hoosier families, especially children” among the issues he Pence says in the opening frames, “Indiana has the would emphasize. fourth largest National Guard in America. When our nation But the Gregg campaign noted that one day later, calls, Indiana’s sons and daughters answer. Their service Pence did not bother to show up for two committee votes and sacrifice is a blessing to America.” for the Child Protection Act of 2012. Indiana is the 16th largest state by population, so The Pence campaign noted that the candidate has Hoosiers are answering the call taken up residency in McCordsville. Sources tell HPI that to serve at a higher rate than the home the Pences own in Columbus has been rented in many other states. out. The campaign described the move to McCordsville as Pence has visited military one for “personal and professional” reasons. personnel serving in Iraq and It is close to the campaign headquarters in Carmel Afghanistan 10 times since as well as Indianapolis International Airport. “Columbus is 2003, including visits to Bagh- home for the Pences, but family needs and professional dad, Mosul, and Kabul. convenience made this move necessary,” according to The ad will begin airing Pence spokeswoman Christy Denault. Thursday morning at 5 a.m. on television and cable sta- Pence has lived in Arlington, Va., since 2002. “We tions statewide. It also will be available at www.mikepence. are glad to hear that Congressman Pence is finally moving com. back to Indiana,” said Daniel Altman, Gregg spokesman. The John Gregg campaign observed, “Four ads “As a gesture of good will, the Gregg campaign will pay to and he hasn’t mentioned the word send the first moving truck to ‘jobs’ once,” said spokesman Daniel Pence’s real home, in Virginia.” Altman. Two days before Gov. Pence’s Democratic op- Mitch Daniels was chosen to be ponent, John Gregg, spent the the next president of Purdue week detailing his reforms for the University, his “Aiming Higher” Deparment of Child Services. political action committee wrote “We need to make the pro- two $25,000 checks (Indianapo- tection of our children a top prior- lis Star). One went to Pence ity,” Gregg said. “In recent years, and one went to Tony Bennett, the Department of Child Services who is seeking re-election as has failed to provide necessary superintendent of public instruc- services for Hoosier families. Our tion. Call them parting gifts. Mike Pence filed a recent ad in front of his family home children are our greatest resource, They could be the last candidate in Columbus, but the campaign announced last week and as Governor I will fight to donations Daniels makes for a that the Pence family is moving to McCordsville. ensure that every Hoosier child has while. Moments after Purdue the opportunity to grow up in a trustees elected Daniels on June safe and loving home.” 21 to take over the university’s “As Governor, I will ensure that DCS is always helm when his tenure as governor ends in January, Daniels working in the best interests of the child,” Gregg said. said he would no longer be involved in partisan politics. “No “That means providing prevention services that can keep campaigning,” Daniels said. “No commenting about any- children out of the juvenile justice system. That means body’s campaign in the state, out of the state, anywhere at helping families that want to adopt children with mental all. No fundraising. Nothing.” The only exception, he said, health issues and it means making children a priority.” would be if he felt compelled to defend his own administra- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

tion’s record. getting out the vote. Horse Race Status: Safe Visclosky The three candidates for governor will meet in three debates this fall (Indianapolis Star). The Indiana 9th CD: Young posts $311k Debate Commission, which has hosted Indiana political U.S. Rep. Todd Young was the only congressional debates since 2008, said the candidates -- Democrat John candidate in Indiana to have reported $1 million raised Gregg, Republican Mike Pence and Libertarian Rupert Bone- before May’s primary. Don’t expect him to give up his ham -- have agreed to participate. No dates or locations spot as the fundraising leader when quarterly FEC reports have been selected. Operators of venues who want to host are filed this weekend. HPI has learned exclusively that one of the debates can apply online at http://indianadebate Young raised $311,000 from April to May, including well commission.com/venue. The deadline to apply to host a over $260,000 in the period since the primary that the debate is July 27. Horse Race Status: Likely Pence report covers. The previous best quarter for Young was $225,000, indicating that the money machine is gearing up Congress ahead of the November general election. For the cycle he’s raised $1.25 million, with nearly $900,000 on hand. Horse 1st CD: Freedomworks eyes Visclosky Race Status: Likely Young The latest Republican challenger to U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky is riding the Tea Party’s disdain for career politi- Indana General Assembly cians into another unlikely victory this year (Dolan, NWI Times). “I think it’s an exciting time to be here in Indiana. SD5: Medicare issue surfaces vs. Charbonneau Indiana in a lot of ways is ground zero for the 2012 elec- Democratic candidate Deb Por- tions,” Matt Kibbe, president and CEO of FreedomWorks for ter on Wednesday blasted state Sen. Ed Charbonneau, America, said Monday prior to speaking at a fundraiser for R-Valparaiso, for his support of a state law that could Joel Phelps at Innsbrook Country Club. “Grass-root activ- someday end Medicare for Hoosier seniors (Carden, NWI ists on the ground are winning races professionals said we Times). Earlier this year the Republican-controlled General couldn’t win. You saw that in the fight between (Richard) Assembly approved Indiana’s participation in the Health Mourdock and (Dick) Lugar. To me that’s exciting because Care Compact. The proposed multistate agreement, which that puts more power in the hands of voters, and I think requires Congressional consent to take effect, would allow that network of activists is very much alive and looking states to determine eligibility and services covered under for a fight,” Kibbe said. FreedomWorks is a Washington, federally funded health programs.Porter said Charbon- D.C.-based political action committee focusing the Tea Party neau’s vote in favor of House Enrolled Act 1269 jeopar- movement’s energy into campaigns to defeat moderate Re- dizes “vital health care services and programs for our most publicans as well as Democrats for the overall goals of less vulnerable citizens.” “Medicare is a promise that we made government. It is expected to raise millions of dollars this to our seniors and one that we need to keep,” said Porter, a year to defeat President Barack Obama and put conserva- Valparaiso teacher. “It is unfair to change the rules on the tives in control of both houses of Congress. It helped mobi- people who have paid into this program for decades.” The lize the vote that ousted Lugar, the longtime U.S. Senator, new law specifically bars Indiana from taking over Medicare in the May Republican primary and gave the victory to under the Health Care Compact until the Legislature agrees Mourdock, the state treasurer. Phelps is hoping for a similar to do so. Porter campaign spokeswoman Kristen Knuth said upset in the Nov. 6 general election of Visclosky, who has there’s no reason to doubt Charbonneau would vote again trounced 24 opponents in both parties and captured an in favor of a policy he’s supported before. Charbonneau average of 64 percent of the vote since his first election in said Porter’s attack is a “desperate attempt by a floun- 1984. Phelps said the job is daunting but “I would chal- dering campaign to gain attention by frightening elderly lenge the premise that this year is any tougher than before. Hoosiers with misrepresentation, falsehoods and politi- We believe he’s been in there too long. The people in cal foolishness.” “What the bill does is express Indiana’s Northwest Indiana understand it’s time for somebody new.” frustration with Obamacare and its costly expansion of the Kibbe said Visclosky’s money, incumbency and name rec- Medicaid program for the poor,” Charbonneau said. “The al- ognition don’t matter as much as in the past. “The power ternative I supported is to explore a compact among states of this activist-driven movement is that it’s not Republican which would allow us to use programs, such as the highly or Democrat. It’s driven by concern that government has successful and cost-effective Healthy Indiana Plan, pool our gotten too big and there is too much Washington keeping resources, innovate, solve problems, save dollars and save us from economic recovery. There are a lot of disappointed lives — free from federal government influence.” v Democrats with buyer’s remorse,” Kibbe said. Kibbe said FreedomWorks trains Tea Party members in the basics of HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2012

George Wallace in the South by exploiting racial fears with- out appearing to be overtly racist, as Wallace often was. The GOP’s race problem Nixon, who was worried Wallace’s appeal in the By CHRIS SAUTTER South would tilt the election to Hubert Humphrey, also WASHINGTON - Mitt Romney’s appearance before cut a deal with Strom Thurman to gain the support of the the NAACP Wednesday is a reminder of how thoroughly the southern political establishment in exchange for a promise Republican Party has alienated non-white voters in America of southern Supreme Court nominations and tough “law over the past 40 years. It’s safe to say a party that was and order” policies. Nixon’s southern strategy became the once replete with political leaders who were vocally pro- template for the Republican Party as it has continued to gressive on matters of race, including Romney’s father, is exploit racial fears in order to win the white vote, mostly no longer the party of Lincoln. through what former Republican National Committee Chair- Romney’s speech was not even targeted to the man Lee Atwater called “coded” language. members of the NAACP, the oldest and largest non-partisan Republicans have been largely following the civil rights group in the country. Nor was it designed to woo same racially charged formula when it comes to Hispanic African American voters in general. Rather it was intended voters, as evidenced by the vindictively narrow views as a message to the Republican base that although as expressed during the Republican presidential debates. President he might reach out to groups beyond his natural Romney’s language about the need for undocumented im- constituency, Romney will not compromise conservative migrants to “self-deport” compared with Obama’s recent Republican orthodoxy. executive order to stop deporting young undocumented Unfortunately for Rom- immigrants helps explain why Obama is leading Romney ney’s presidential chances, it among Latinos 70 percent to 16 percent. was a missed opportunity to The long-term demographics in America spell big begin bridging a widening gulf trouble for a Republican Party whose base is quickly shrink- between a party whose base ing. A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters in late is older whites and an America June showed Romney winning voters over 55, white voters that is rapidly increasing its and men. All other demographic groups broke for Obama: racial diversity. In an election women, black and Latino voters, and voters 54 and young- in which Romney can’t seem to er. The survey gave Obama a 4-point lead overall. climb above President Barack A critical reason Romney is unable to surge past Obama no matter how bad the Obama despite continuing poor economic news is tied to economic news, any inroads into the rapid rise in non-white voters over the past 20 years. Obama’s support could prove Between 1992 and 2008, the number of non-white voters the difference between winning doubled from 13 percent to 26 percent. Political scien- and losing. tists are predicting that number will approach 30 percent Though Romney did speak to the NAACP in general in 2012. To put this change in perspective applying to- terms about education and black unemployment, he failed day’s voting patterns and demographics, Ronald Reagan’s to address key issues that prevent the GOP from attract- landslide in 1984 over would have been ing any new African American voters. In particular, the a squeaker. Republicans can no longer afford to write off Republican Party’s manic pursuit of voter identification laws minority voters. that unquestionably will have the effect of disenfranchising At the NAACP conference, Romney could have tens of thousands of black, Latino, and low-income voters exploited the President’s weakness on the economy by of- have hardened negative feelings toward the GOP among fering specifics that would have appealed to some African non-whites, particularly blacks. Those negative impressions Americans. For example, he could have recycled some of were further solidified by the recent Republican-led con- Jack Kemp’s ideas about “black capitalism” while express- gressional contempt citation of Eric Holder, the first African ing some of Kemp’s empathy for the poor. Kemp wanted American Attorney General in U.S. history, which many to use creative capitalism rather than a “safety net” to free blacks believe was racially motivated. lower-income Americans from a system that trapped them The alienation of black voters from the GOP is in poverty. the product of a deliberate political strategy that is directly Romney seems incapable to formulate a mes- traceable to the 1968 presidential campaign when Richard sage that includes minority voters because he has no real Nixon adopted his infamous “southern strategy.” Nixon’s connection to them. Romney’s identity is to the nation’s southern strategy was originally designed to enable him to wealthiest 1 percent. His politics are the Republican politics overcome the threat of independent presidential candidate of the past 40 years rather than the politics of a multi-eth- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

nic American future. Obama’s Hawaiian birthplace. Rather than bait the NAACP audience over a health Instead, Romney proved he is incapable of the kind care reform law that is popular with African Americans, of presidential vision and leadership the country clearly Romney might have done better extending an olive branch craves. v by promising, for example, that he will be a President who like his father George Romney will stand up for the right Sautter is a Democratic consultant based in Wash- to vote. Or he could have put to rest for the country once ington. and for all the obsession of some in his party with disputing

average is $730 with Anderson last at $566. Employment snapshots The 14 Indiana metro areas pictured in these monthly reports (Louisville and Cincinnati areas are not challenge policy discussion shown) represent 79 percent of jobs in the state with 83 percent of the total private sector earnings. By MORTON J. MARCUS How does Indiana compare with other states? Our INDIANAPOLIS - Every month we get snapshots of statewide average hourly earnings are 10 percent below employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the national figure, ranking 32nd in the country. Connecti- the Indiana Department of Workforce Development. One cut, Massachusetts, and Washington lead the nation with snapshot tells us how many people are employed and how average hourly earnings above $27. Arkansas trails the many are unemployed. Another tells us how many jobs nation at $17.95 per hour. there are in our many economies. The average work week for Hoosiers in the pri- The difference between people employed and num- vate sector is 34.6 hours, only marginally above the 34.3 ber of jobs is due to two factors. First, these are surveys national figure. The resulting average weekly earnings for of different entities. The number Indiana is $730 compared to $801 nationally. employed is based on a survey of In this year of gubernatorial and legislative elec- households; the number of jobs is tions, the data reported here deserve attention. The based on a survey of employers. economic discussions so far have been focused on the Second, one person may hold more number of jobs and the corporate income tax. Most candi- than one job. dates want to increase the number of jobs and eliminate The snapshot of jobs tells us the corporate income tax. This is blatant nonsense, foolish interesting and important differ- pandering, and dependence on obsolete economic thinking. ences among 14 metropolitan areas Indiana does not need more jobs. We need jobs within the state. For example, in that pay better. With better paying jobs, fewer people May, nearly one-third of all private would have to work, fewer people would hold two jobs to sector jobs in Indiana are in the make ends meet, and fewer households would have two Indianapolis metro area. The next adults in the work force. largest metro area (Gary, i.e. Lake Indiana needs higher paying jobs. Eliminating the and Porter counties) has less than one third the number of corporate income tax does not promise to raise workers’ private sector jobs as does Indianapolis. incomes. A more profitable company does not necessar- Elkhart-Goshen (37.8) and Columbus (37.7) lead the ily pay more in wages than its competitors. We will have a state in average number of hours worked per week. Bloom- workforce that is worth more when the products and ser- ington and Lafayette (29.5 and 31.8 hours respectively) vices it produces are worth more in the global marketplace. trail the state. Part-time employment of the significant col- This requires businesses that are industry leaders lege populations probably accounts for these results. with management aggressively seeking new products, new Columbus has average hourly earnings of $25.90, processes and new markets. Worker training is always de- highest in the state, while Elkhart-Goshen ranks ninth at sirable, but without imaginative, progressive management, $19.99. The statewide average is $21.11. Gary is the sec- Indiana will continue to be a below average, mediocre ond highest ($23.74) with Anderson the lowest at $16.81. state. v When average hourly earnings are multiplied by average weekly hours, we get average weekly earnings. Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, writer and Columbus wins this category by a wide margin at $976 speaker formerly with the IU Kelley School of Busi- while second place goes to Gary at $836. The statewide ness. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

You see, as a thrifty state treasurer, Mourdock went Taking a stab at defending to court, spending millions of taxpayer money in seeking to scuttle the federal effort to save Chrysler. He opposed the Richard Mourdock recovery plan for General Motors, too. Now, nasty critics point to how Chrysler, a major Indiana employer, has ex- By JACK COLWELL panded its workforce and facilities, leading Indiana’s manu- SOUTH BEND - Because of a silly mistake in releas- facturing recovery effort and helping the state increase ing four differing responses to the Supreme Court health revenue to build a surplus. care decision - before the decision was announced - the By skillfully focusing attention on those four health national news media and late-night comedians portray care “presponses,” Mourdock avoided having to respond to Indiana’s Richard Mourdock as a fool. the Chrysler report. But he surely had four possible re- Somebody needs to defend Mourdock, the Tea sponses prepared, with opening statements something like Party favorite who won the Republican this: nomination for the U.S. Senate. 1. “Well, we’ve had our brief moment of celebra- So, I will. As best I can. tion because Chrysler’s June sales plummeted. But we Comedy Central’s Stephen Col- must fight on now against renewed efforts by left-wingers bert was one who mocked Mourdock, like Nancy Pelosi, Dick Lugar and Chief Justice Roberts to seeking no doubt to make our Hoosier support another Chrysler comeback before the election.” politician the 2012 joke equivalent of (Unfortunately, there was not even a brief celebration. Delaware loser Christine “I Am Not a Nothing but bad news. Chrysler’s June sales were up a ro- Witch” O’Donnell. Clearly unfair. Chris- bust 20 percent, way above analysts’ expectations, for the tine never sought to kill Chrysler. best June since 2007. General Motors also had a big 15.5 The flap is all about the four percent increase.) responses - or what Colbert sarcastically calls “presponses” 2. “Well, Chrysler has done what none of us really - mistakenly released by Mourdock’s campaign on YouTube. thought could happen. June sales were up quite a bit. (No And quickly taken down, though not quick enough. clairvoyance. He didn’t see how American auto workers and Preparing for four possibilities for Court rulings, management really could cooperate for success.) Mourdock, standing in front of an attractive brick wall, had 3. “The American auto companies did have some these four different opening statements: good increases, but only part of them.” (Mourdock would 1. “Well, we’ve had our brief moment of celebra- be left pointing out that Ford was up only a healthy 7 per- tion because the Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare is in cent.) fact unconstitutional.” (Credit Mourdock with clairvoyance. 4. The auto companies did what none of us There was a brief moment of celebration by Obamacare expected. They refused to issue June reports, a decision opponents when CNN and Fox News initially headlined that leaving us basically with no information at all.” (He would it was ruled unconstitutional.) portray this, if it had happened, as a plot by the auto com- 2. “Well, the Supreme Court has done what none panies and the United Auto Workers to withhold good news of us really thought could happen. They ruled Obamacare about plummeting sales until after the election.) constitutional.” (Alas, no clairvoyance here. Not a word The comedians may laugh at Mourdock. But he about Chief Justice Roberts being the one to do what none could have the last laugh. They portray him as a fool. of us really thought could happen.) But that doesn’t mean that Indiana voters will reject him. 3. “The Supreme Court struck down part but not Haven’t we sent fools to Congress before? v all of the health care bill.” (Mourdock’s campaign was just following the Boy Scout motto, “Be Prepared.”) Colwell has covered politics over five decades for 4. “The United States Supreme Court has done the South Bend Tribune. what none of us expected. They found an answer on the heath care issue which basically led them to no decision at all.” (Mourdock perhaps was thinking of Congress, where so often there is no decision at all.) In defending Mourdock from the columnists, com- mentators, comedians and bloggers who made fun of him, I suggest that he intentionally gave them something silly to distract them from something he feared as potentially more serious, more damaging, the reports on June auto sales. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 14 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

A lot of people don’t bother with forms, but ignor- Stop local government ing this form could cost them their homestead deductions and credits. Tax rates could be affected if a lot of homeowners chaos; fill out a form don’t submit their forms. Without those big homestead de- By LARRY DeBOER ductions, a county’s total assessed value would be higher. WEST LAFAYETTE - There’s potential for chaos in Tax rates would then be set lower to raise the necessary Indiana local government in 2013. Indiana taxpayers can revenue. Qualified homestead owners would pay less in prevent this chaos. All we have to do is send in a form. taxes at those lower rates. So would owners of rental hous- Here’s the story. ing, farmland and businesses. Counties with homestead Homeowners receive some terrific breaks under credits funded by local income taxes would provide more Indiana’s property tax system. First, the $45,000 standard tax relief to fewer homesteads. Credit rates would be set deduction is subtracted from the taxable assessed value of higher. Qualified homestead owners would see even lower homesteads. Then what remains is tax bills. reduced another 35 percent by the Now here’s the chaos for local governments. supplemental homestead deduc- Homeowners who lose their homestead tax breaks tion. Some counties have home- will notice that their 2013 tax bills are really high. The law stead credits, which are percentage allows homeowners to appeal to their county auditor to reductions in homestead tax bills. have their deductions reinstated for 2013. You can read the Local governments replace this lost law at http://www.in.gov/legislative/ic/code. The code cita- property tax revenue with local tion is IC 6-1.1-12-17.8. income tax revenue. Finally, home- Failure to submit the form need not have tax steads are subject to a tax cap at consequences for homeowners. But there would be budget 1 percent of the original assessed consequences for local governments. When the deductions value. When all the tax breaks are are reinstated, 2013 tax bills will have been mailed. Tax applied, the tax bill on a mid-valued rates and homestead credit rates will have been set. They house can be cut in half, and then cannot be changed. some. Reinstated deductions would be subtracted from A homestead is defined as an owner-occupied total assessed value. With less assessed value, those fixed primary residence. Homeowners can only have one primary low tax rates would deliver less revenue than local govern- residence, so they can qualify for only one set of home- ments budgeted. Counties, cities, schools and other local stead tax breaks. Second homes or vacation homes are governments would find themselves short of funds. More classified as non-homestead residential property, and they homeowners would be eligible for homestead credits at don’t get the tax breaks. those fixed high rates. There wouldn’t be enough local in- The state suspects that some people are getting come tax revenue to replace those credits, so local govern- homestead deductions and credits they aren’t supposed ments would again receive less revenue than budgeted. to get. People who own more than one home, sometimes The law requires counties to send notice to in more than one county, may be getting homestead tax homeowners before deductions are cancelled. It’s a really breaks on more than one house. good idea for those notices to be sent well before tax rates To catch these errors, the state has authorized are set. counties to send homestead verification forms to home- What’s the chaos in store for 2013? Some very un- owners. These are pink forms that were included with tax happy homeowners appealing their tax bills. Tax rates set bills. The form asks homeowners to show that their house too low, and homestead credits set too high. Local govern- is eligible for homestead tax breaks. The counties will use ments struggling to handle revenue shortfalls. this information to look for people who are claiming more It doesn’t have to be, though. All we have to do is than one homestead. The state’s Department of Local Gov- send in a form. v ernment Finance has a lot of information about these forms on their website, at http://www.in.gov/dlgf/8455.htm. DeBoer is a professor of agricultural economics at The forms first went out a couple of years ago. For . taxes in 2013, county auditors can use this information to cancel the homestead status for homes that don’t qualify. People who have not submitted their forms can lose their homestead tax breaks, too. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 15 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

the brightest man I ever encountered in Indiana politics. Hoosier governors But, he wasn’t a real Hoosier. He was an Indianapolis busi- nessman. By RICH JAMES Bayh remains an enigma to the gubernatorial MERRILLVILLE – A friend called the other day and scene. While he was young and good looking, he too, didn’t said she had just heard Democratic gubernatorial candidate have a streak of Hoosier in him. John Gregg on the phone. I suspect a couple things happened. After 20 years “This guy can’t be elected governor,” she said. “He of Republican governors, I think the state was ready for a sounds like a county bumpkin.” Democrat. “No,” I said, “he’s actually a very bright and witty But I think the bigger reason was that many man. He’s not a bumpkin. He’s a Hoosier. He hails from felt guilty about defeating Evan’s father, Sen. Birch Bayh, in southern Indiana, a little place called Sanborn. It’s just up 1980. And they quickly learned that Dan Quayle was a real the road apiece from Vincennes, if that helps. mistake. An empty suit if you will. “I’m sure Gregg sounds perfectly normal to the Nevertheless, voters thought there might be some folks who live downstate. He may of Birch – a real Hoosier - in Evan. There wasn’t. Birch, by sound like the guy next door to just the way, was from Shirkieville, which isn’t all that far from about everyone south of the Kanka- Sanborn. kee River. In 1992, Bayh defeated Republican Attorney Gen- “While those of us in Lake County eral Linley Pearson, a nice man but not steeped in Hoosier- are Hoosiers, we don’t much sound ism. like it. That’s partly why they call us In 1996 Frank O’Bannon, who by rights should Region Rats. have been the governor candidate in 1988 but instead “Many of those in Indianapolis graciously stepped aside and took the lieutenant governor’s don’t sound like Hoosiers either. post, was elected governor. I watched O’Bannon serve as That’s why they pronounce the state minority leader of the Indiana Senate for six years. I have capital as Indanapolis. never met a finer man in Indiana government. And yes, “Gregg’s speech may sound some- O’Bannon, from Corydon in southern Indiana was a Hoo- what bumpkin, but don’t be fooled – you don’t get elected sier. O’Bannon defeated Indianapolis Mayor Stephen Gold- speaker of the House if you don’t have a lot on the ball. smith, an extremely bright man who didn’t have an inkling Gregg does.” That conversation led me to think about the of what it meant to be a Hoosier. men elected governor since I’ve been following the sport. In 2000, O’Bannon was easily re-elected, defeating That dates back to Otis R. Bowen, who was best known as U.S. Rep. David McIntosh, who was a flop in Congress and Doc. He was a country doctor who I suspect made house not much of a Hoosier. calls. While he didn’t sound like Gregg, he was a Hoosier When O’Bannon died in office, Lt. Gov. through and through. took over and lost to Mitch Daniels in 2004. But Daniels Doc Bowen made you feel good about being already had been traversing Indiana trying to shed his Eli a Hoosier. People felt comfortable knowing there was a Lilly executive image and establish himself as a Hoosier. doctor sitting in the governor’s office. It was almost as if He ate a lot of country fried steak and peach cobbler while he would show up if you got sick. Doc beat Matt Welsh in selling himself to Hoosiers. He got the job done. He be- 1972 and Larry Conrad in 1976. Conrad was one of those came a likeable guy until his politics got to be ultra conser- likeable Hoosiers but found out you can’t beat a legend. vative. When Doc left office, his lieutenant governor, Bob Orr, was In 2008, Daniels was easily re-elected over Jill elected governor in 1980. Long Thompson, who was little more than a sacrificial lamb Although he was from Evansville, Orr wasn’t cut for Democrats who knew they couldn’t beat Daniels. out of that Hoosier mold, but rather looked like a governor So now we have Gregg, the country lawyer, against - a tall, slim man with silver hair. Orr defeated Democrat Mike Pence. Pence, who is part of the radical right, will talk John Hillenbrand, a millionaire casket maker who I once about Hoosier values but not really understand what that saw pour Worcestershire sauce on cottage cheese. means. Can Gregg win? It will be an uphill fight. But he In 1984, Orr defeated state Sen. Wayne Townsend, a may just be the most Hoosier governor candidate in the bright and likeable man who lacked that special something last 40 years. v that’s needed to be elected governor. Gubernatorial politics changed in 1988 when Evan Rich James is the former editorial page editor and Bayh defeated Republican John Mutz. Mutz may have been columnist for the Post-Tribune in Merrillville. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 16 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2012

Doug Ross, NWI Times: As much as I try to con- Kidding aside, I think his selection by Purdue’s trustees — nect the dots on major issues, sometimes those dots seem yes, I know he appointed most of them — was as brilliant to connect themselves. That has been happening on illegal a move as it was dramatic. Perhaps Promethean in creative immigration lately. Some of these recent developments you originality. Not everyone agrees. Protesters demonstrated already know about, such as President Barack Obama an- on the Memorial Mall of the campus in West Lafayette last nouncing that young illegal immigrants wouldn’t be deport- weekend, and a former university education dean withdrew ed unless they committed a crime. The DREAM Act, previ- in protest a $1 million gift she was in the process of be- ously promoted by U.S. Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Dick stowing on Purdue. Yet who can deny the precarious state Lugar, R-Ind., would create a path to citizenship for young of public higher education today in the United States, a sta- illegal immigrants who came here not of their own will but tus spotlighted by the debacle of firing, then rehiring, the because their parents brought them. Send them back to president of the University of Virginia two weeks ago. All their home country? The United States is all they’ve ever over the question of leadership in a time of technological known. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the Arizona change, financial constraints, and demands for accountabil- immigration case last week is still fresh in people’s minds. ity for educational outcomes. The failure of Purdue’s board State Sen. Mike Delph, R-Carmel, is elated that Indiana of trustees to find acceptable candidates for the presidency sent the feds a $131 million bill late last week to cover in what I heard were two initial searches — where the the cost of state services used by illegal immigrants since usual candidates would have been vetted by the standard July 1, 2011. It’s purely a poke in the feds’ eye headhunter consultants — is itself telling and disturbing. in frustration over federal immigration enforce- That led to somebody’s brainstorm: consider Mitch ment here. That same law prohibits local police Daniels as a prospect. The man has had at least from checking the citizenship status of crime three remarkable careers, not counting one of victims and witnesses. Which brings us to East fatherhood during a marriage and divorce and re- Chicago Police Chief Mark Becker. Becker spoke marriage (to the same woman) so challenging that with the The Times Editorial Board on Thursday. it could well be the primary reason he backed off a We discussed the problems of controlling crime in presidential campaign bid. In his current position, a city with perhaps a thousand illegal immigrants. It’s not he’s been willing to be a lighting rod for change: change in the problem you might think. Sure, there are illegal immi- the model of state and local governance, change in taxes grants who commit violent crimes, but the more prevalent to limit government growth, change in the relationship and intriguing problem is the victimization of illegal immi- between state employees and their employer, the people of grants. When you think about it, this makes sense. Illegal Indiana. v immigrants are afraid to report crimes for fear they will be deported, so they stay quiet. And because they don’t report Dan Carpenter, Indianapolis Star: What if I the crimes, the criminals know they can continue to victim- were governor and had to decide what to do with $2 bil- ize these people with little fear of repercussion. Becker, a lion? I could put back $300 million I cut from education former FBI agent, says he is more concerned about fight- and rehire laid-off teachers. I could restore the $300 million ing crime than about residents’ legal status. But reaching the Department of Child Services “voluntarily” returned to out to them is difficult. It’s going to take time to build trust the state treasury and address the many areas of suffering among illegal immigrants, so Becker is reaching out to the where more help cries out to be delivered. I could treat a appropriate organizations. Eventually, someone will get to whole family of underfed needs. Early childhood education. know Becker well enough to discover his integrity. Then The 21st Century Scholars program. Food banks, when others will follow the lead and start reporting crimes. v hundreds of thousands are at risk of hunger. Home health care for the elderly and disabled, which has thousands on Larry Riley, Muncie Star Press: I’ve heard some of the waiting list when it costs a fraction of what taxpay- the jokes about the future of Indiana’s land grant university ers will expend on nursing homes. A longer list with all of with an upcoming former state governor as the institution’s the above, in fact, comes courtesy of the Indiana Coalition president. Routes to and through campus will be made for Human Services, which dares to ask at what price we toll roads to generate revenue, then leased for 75 years gained the $2 billion surplus Gov. Mitch Daniels is proudly to get the cash up front and pay off all school debt. The declaring -- and the $300 million in taxpayer refunds it trig- admissions process will be outsourced to IBM and totally gers. The governor makes it simple. He’s run a tight ship, automated. An excise tax on all alcohol consumed on or and the law says his surplus compels him to delight the near campus to pay for all varsity sports and public safety taxpayers with $100 to $200 a shot. But is this grownup officers. Future tuition hikes to be capped at 1 percent for behavior? Won’t taxpayers get the bill for education and seniors, 2 percent for juniors and 3 percent for all others. health care, if not now then later and bigger? v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 17 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012

dy and nutrition measure was a major lapse more time to decide whether to Crown Point to victory for Chairman Frank Lucas (R- accept a portion of $6 million in state challenge 911 law Okla.) and ranking member Rep. Collin money that’s linked to a settlement Peterson (D-Minn.) who had risked with the owner and manufacturer of CROWN POINT - Crown Point angering factions in their own parties the stage. Zoeller said Wednesday he’s officials rejected an interlocal agree- to forge a compromise bill. Earlier in pushing back the deadline for victims ment for a countywide consolidation the marathon markup, which began to accept the money to August 1. of E-911 services and authorized its at 10 am on Wednesday, conserva- Tony Patterson, who leads a group of city attorney to challenge the merger’s tives and liberals had brawled over the lawyers representing the victims, says constitutionality (Erler, NWI Times). $16.5 billion in cuts to food stamps in it wants plaintiffs to have more time to Mayor David Uran said the consolida- the bill. The final 11 dissenters includ- review the deal. tion unfairly calls on cities and towns ed both Democrats and Republicans. to spend more on police and fire They were GOP Reps. Bob Goodlatte emergency communications with little (Va.), Marlin Stutzman (Ind.), Bob St. Joe River at return in quality of service. “We’ve al- Gibbs (Ohio) and Tim Huelskamp ready got the best equipment and the (Kan.); and Democratic Reps. Joe Baca historic low level best personnel,” Uran said of the city’s (Calif.), David Scott (Ga.), Chellie Pin- SOUTH BEND - Some gauges own emergency dispatch center. “For gree (Maine), Joe Courtney (Conn.), along the St. Joseph River show the us to diminish service and pay more Marcia Fudge (Ohio), Terri Sewell it has never been this low in recorded is absolutely (Ala.) and Jim McGovern (Mass.). history (South Bend Tribune). It stood asinine.” The at 4.33 feet in Niles Wednesday, set- General Assem- ting a new record low. And in Elkhart it bly mandated Berry to outline tied with the record low. The National communities Weather Service tells us the river is consolidate into Indiana finances severely strained right now trying to no fewer than INDIANAPOLIS - Auditor Tim meet all the irrigation and municipal two public safe- Berry is releasing more details on how water needs. That’s the situation with ty call centers by Dec. 31, 2014. Lake Indiana built an estimated $2 billion surface water, but we’re in much bet- County officials have proposed a $30 in cash reserves (Evansville Courier & ter shape with water underground. million model for replacing 18 commu- Press). Berry is set to release detailed nity dispatch units with two major call fiscal data Thursday as part of his centers and new communications gear. annual closeout of the state budget. Rokita questions Cities and towns signing the interlo- Indiana built extensive cash reserves cal agreement would have to commit over the last two years through deep dam water release millions of tax dollars from their future budget cuts and improved tax col- budgets to a unified communications MONTICELLO - U.S. Rep. Todd lections. Gov. Mitch Daniels touted system. Failure to meet the consolida- Rokita sent a letter Wednesday to the estimates last week that he said would tion deadline would mean the loss of Fish and Wildlife Service, saying he trigger his automatic tax refund and nearly $4 million in state subsidies worries that releasing water from Lake grant taxpayers a credit of roughly now keeping emergency communica- Freeman into the Tippecanoe River $100 each. The budget wrap-up is also tions up and running. near Monticello could hurt businesses expected to account for more than that rely on tourism to the lake. The a half-billion dollars in tax collection agency ordered over the weekend that Stutzman balks mistakes discovered by the Daniels Northern Indiana Public Service Co. administration over the last year. maintain a minimum flow through its on farm bill hydroelectric dam. Wildlife service su- pervisor Scott Pruitt tells the Journal & WASHINGTON - The House Zoeller pushes back Courier the lake hasn’t dropped by the Agriculture Committee approved the 1 foot or more that was projected. He 2012 farm bill early Thursday morning fair deadline says NIPSCO rarely drops the dam’s in a 35-11 vote (The Hill). The strong INDIANAPOLIS - Attorney water flow below the minimum. vote — which took place just before 1 General Greg Zoeller is giving victims a.m. — on the $957 billion farm subsi- of the Indiana State Fair stage col-