V17, N41 Thursday, July 12, 2012 Mid-cycle Report: Romney coattails? GOP expected to win Indiana’s EC votes, with down- ballot implications By BRIAN A. HOWEY PLAINFIELD, Ind. - Hoo- sier voters are facing two poten- tial epic tossup races this fall. Nationally, all indications are that the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney will go down to the wire. Likewise, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Rich- ard Mourdock and Democrat Joe Donnelly has all the characteris- tics of being a “Tossup” though the true character of the race won’t be known until mid-Septem- to maintain a big money advantage and time may be run- ber when the third Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground ning out for Gregg to be able to close what polling has Poll – likely to be the only independent media polling this showed to be leads ranging from 44-31 in a March Howey/ cycle – is published. DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, and over 20% in a The Indiana gubernatorial and congressional fields couple of recent partisan Republican polls. look to be less competitive. Republican Mike Pence won’t On the congressional front, only the 8th CD race release his fundraising totals until next Monday. Democrat John Gregg’s campaign isn’t saying. But Pence is expected Continued on page 4 The second tsunami By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE - The first wave of a tsunami stuns those hit, but the follow-up wave often reaches the high point because it builds upon the first devastation. I feel 2012 will have similar election impact. ‘‘In response to the infamous words of In Indiana, regardless of the na- the House leadership on the other side tional trends, I believe we are looking of he aisle at that time, we’ve now had at swinging back to huge GOP margins like Bush 43 over Gore (nearly 350,000 a chance to see what’s in it and the fact in a 50-50 national race), Bush 43 over remains we still don’t like it.” Kerry (500,000), Bush 41 over Duka- kis (430,000), Reagan over Mondale - U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita (530,000), and Reagan over Carter on repealing Obamacare (400,000). The actual Republican vote, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012 even for McCain, had this variation Democrats in the U.S. House, if both from 1980 to 2008: 1,245,000 to Democrats survive. In other words, 1,479,000 (2004). the congressional ballot like the presi- The exceptions in over 30 dential ballot is likely going to have a years are two. In 1992 Ross Pe- strong pull on the gubernatorial and www.HoweyPolitics.com rot received 456,000 votes. Clinton senate races. got almost the identical number as In spite of all the Democrat Carter in 1980 and similar to Gore in spin, Mike Pence will win somewhere Howey Politics 2000. Bush, however, dropped nearly between easily and overwhelmingly. Indiana 300,000 from the previous minimum, Nominating Vi Simpson was a huge is a non-partisan newsletter but he still won Indiana. Democrat mistake. John Gregg will based in Indianapolis. It was In 2008, McCain basically not be able to even pretend to not be founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. tied for the second largest Indiana a liberal. This is a year when being a GOP vote. But Obama was the first liberal is better than being the Devil, a Democrat in modern times to top one Nazi or an actual communist by maybe Brian A. Howey, Publisher million votes. In fact, he blew by it two points. Nor will Mike Pence will be Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington to 1.375 million. Total voters soared. underfunded. Jack E. Howey, editor Let me put it this way: An African- The Republicans have Beverly K. Phillips, associate American eligible to vote who didn’t tilted their slate southern with, well, probably never will. I do not think everybody: U.S. Senate, lieutenant editor re-election is the same as the historic governor, attorney general and super- racial breakthrough that 2008 repre- intendent of public instruction all make Subscriptions sented. Now Obama is mostly just a Mike’s Columbus address look like it $350 annually HPI Weekly liberal. borders on Michigan. No wonder he Furthermore, young voters moved closer to Indianapolis where $550 annually HPI Weekly and thought the wars were going to imme- the hills stop and most people live. I HPI Daily Wire. diately end, not be still lingering and think it is likely that the GOP holds the 'Call 317.627.6746 more of them. Not to mention that all south. I don’t think the Indy collar is those people who thought health care in play. That really puts pressure on was going to be “free” are feeling a bit Joe Donnelly to be a one-man army in Contact HPI deceived right now. populous northern Indiana. Howey Politics Indiana Who will the individual man- The first historic problem is 6255 Evanston Ave. date most impact? Young voters. I this: Democrats can survive Repub- Indianapolis, IN 46220 think President Obama drops down lican tides one way, but Joe chang- www.howeypolitics.com dramatically, below a million and pos- ing his name to “Joe Bayh” probably sibly down toward 950,000 or lower won’t work at this late date. Secondly, [email protected] like most Democrats, and maybe even Birch Bayh lost to Dan Quayle in 1980, 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 down to Dukakis levels at 861,000. even though he was an incumbent, 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 This impacts down the bal- and Evan only narrowly defeated Rob 'Washington: 703.248.0909 lot. In 2004, the Bush win made the Bowen and John Mutz. Evan smoothly 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 Indiana GOP congressional delegation avoided Dan Coats in 2010 (as Dan 7-2. It consolidated 1994 Republican avoided Bayh in 1998). So even Evan gains when John Hostetler and I upset Bayh would not necessarily win this © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. incumbents, and David McIntosh year, Republican family feud or not. All rights reserved. Photocopy- won a Democrat open seat, swinging The second problem is that ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Indiana to a Republican majority of northern Indiana is not trending Dem- ing or reproducing in any form, Hoosiers in Congress. Mike Sodrel and ocratic. Remember, part of the reason Chris Chocola were the 2004 win- Joe is running for Senate is that the whole or part, is a violation of ners, as Todd Young will be (but as an 2nd Congressional District took lots federal law without permission incumbent), and likely Jackie Walorski of Republicans from my old district to from the publisher. v joins the other six Republicans. pad it for Jackie Walorski. If Joe is go- We will be back to Pete Vis- ing to fight for his life, it might as well closky and a different Carson as the be for the Senate. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, July 12, 2012 Brad Ellsworth had a similar view, although Joe licans will go from whispering “health care” to screaming is closer to the type who can pull upsets. But he will have “HEALTH CARE” and “SENATE CONTROL.” to fight to win his own district, will lose my home area Obama, of course, will also be a big asset for probably widely, win Visclosky’s district, lose Rokita’s by a Richard Mourdock. Mourdock will continue to benefit from wide margin, and get wiped out in the top parts of Susan media people constantly playing Colbert and not taking Brooks’ and Luke Messer’s new districts. I just don’t think him seriously, as Richard continues his steady march to the carrying Marion and Lake is a victory strategy. Senate. The bias is so great I honestly don’t think the me- Oh yes, what about the Lugar vote? Here is dia will ever wake up, and that bias really irritates voters. a prediction. Even if Joe gets every one of Lugar’s 261,000 One last comment on northern Indiana. The only votes I don’t think it will be enough to win. The margin is state legislative race that is likely to be competitive is Dem- likely to be larger than that. And I think it is safe to say he ocrat Win Moses in Fort Wayne, who with re-districting, for won’t get every Lugar vote, including Senator Lugar’s as the first time represents a clearly Republican district. He Lugar has said multiple times. is smart and an incredible fighter, who is just never really Lugar’s supporters, and the half of the likely fall defeated. But he could be in real trouble this time. v Republican vote that didn’t vote in the primary, will likely stall around, have doubts, but somewhere between Labor Souder is a former Republican Member of Congress. Day and election day, if there are still doubts, the Repub- stantial dissatisfaction with Barack Obama’s performance in Romney, from page 1 office are keeping Mitt Romney competitive in the presi- dential race – but not by enough of a margin to overcome between freshman Republican Larry Bucshon and Democrat Obama’s stronger personal profile. The result: A dead heat Dave Crooks looks to be close. in voter preferences at the midsummer stage, with the With the 2012 election cycle a little past the prospect of an epic battle ahead.” halfway point, here is Howey Politics Indiana’s take on the While most Americans continue to disapprove of major races dotting the hot and dry Hoosier landscape: Obama’s handling of the economy, that’s not his only prob- lem.