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Demographic Trends in Dublin Over the Past Two Decades

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Demographic Trends in Dublin Over the Past Two Decades DUBLIN CITY COUNCIL – THINK DUBLIN! RESEARCH SERIES Demographic Trends in Dublin Declan Redmond and Brendan Williams, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin Brian Hughes, School of the Built Environment, Dublin Institute of Technology Jamie Cudden, Office of International Relations and Research Dublin City Council 2012 May 2010 November 2011 1 O FFICE OF INTERNATION AL RELATIONS AND RES EARCH This report forms part of the Think Dublin! Research Series that encourages an evidence-based approach to developing policy in the city while also highlighting the key role of Dublin in the national and international context. The Office of International Relations and Research is responsible for the development of economic indicators that monitor and benchmark Dublin’s performance. The Office also develops and commissions research that yields a better understanding of the key strategic areas that influence future city success. Jamie Cudden Research Manager [email protected] Helen O’Leary Research Officer [email protected] 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the Office of International Relations and Research at Dublin City Council for commissioning this report. In particular, we would like to thank Walter Foley (Research Officer) and Helen O’ Leary (Research Officer) for their extensive comments on various drafts. We would like to thank Richard Waldron, of Urban Institute Ireland at UCD, for producing the maps of population change. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 REPORT CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................................ 10 1.2 SOURCES AND METHODS .............................................................................................................................. 11 2. IRELAND IN CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 EUROPE IN COMPARATIVE CONTEXT ............................................................................................................... 14 2.2 IRELAND IN A EUROPEAN CONTEXT ................................................................................................................. 19 2.3 GLOBAL TREND OF INCREASED URBANISATION ................................................................................................... 25 3 POPULATION TRENDS IN DUBLIN 1991-2011 ........................................................................................ 29 3.1 KEY POPULATION TRENDS ............................................................................................................................. 29 3.2 POPULATION CHANGE IN DUBLIN ................................................................................................................... 31 3.3 SPRAWL AND DISPERSION IN THE DUBLIN REGION ............................................................................................. 35 3.4 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE ..................................................................................................... 45 3.5 AGE STRUCTURE, DEPENDENCY RATIOS AND LIFE EXPECTANCY ............................................................................ 50 3.6 NATIONALITY AND COUNTRY OF BIRTH ............................................................................................................ 54 3.7 HOUSEHOLD CHANGE AND HOUSING .............................................................................................................. 57 4 POPULATION FORECASTS ..................................................................................................................... 63 4.1 LONG TERM FORECASTS ............................................................................................................................... 63 4.2 CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE FORECASTS ......................................................................................................... 66 4.3 REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDELINE FORECASTS .................................................................................................... 68 5 CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................................................................. 70 6 APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................................... 74 APPENDIX 1 POPULATION CHANGE IN DUBLIN INNER CITY 1991-2011.................................................................... 74 APPENDIX 2 POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR DUBLIN AND STATE, 1996, 2002 AND 2006 .............................................. 78 APPENDIX 3 CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE LONG TERM FORECASTS ........................................................................... 84 7 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................................................................... 86 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines some of the main demographic trends in Dublin over the past two decades. While the focus is on the Dublin City Council area the results are placed in the context of the Dublin Region, Greater Dublin Area (GDA) and the State. The report also sets Ireland in its broader European and global context. Ireland in Comparative Context Global population reaches 7 billion World population continues to grow strongly. According to the United Nations, the global population is currently approximately 7 billion and is projected to reach 9 billion by the year 2050. On average across the world, life expectancy at birth has increased from 47 years in the 1950s to 68 years today. This varies across the world but in general terms it leads to population growth and an ageing population. Urbanisation increasing rapidly The world is rapidly urbanising. The United Nations estimate that currently half of the world’s population is urban and that by 2050 this will rise to 70%. While just over 60% of Ireland’s population is currently urban, the UN project that this will increase to 80% by 2050. European population is falling in relative terms Europe’s share of global population has fallen continuously since the 1960s. In 1960 Europe1 accounted for 20% of global population but by 2005 it had fallen to 11%. By 2050 it is projected to be just 7.6% of the world’s population. While the actual population of Europe has increased between 1960 and 2005, it has been outpaced by very high population growth in Africa, India and China. But Ireland to increase its population in medium to long term Ireland, along with the UK, Spain and France is projected to increase in population over the next few decades. Eurostat projects the Irish population is to increase from 4.5 million to 6.5 million between 2010 and 2060, a 47% increase. The UK is projected to increase from 62 million in 2010 to 79 million over the same period, an increase of 27%. The German population, by contrast, is expected to fall by 15.3 million between 2010 and 2060, a decrease of 19%. Birth rates and fertility rates in Europe decline Birth rates in Europe have fallen steadily in the past thirty years and are now among the lowest in the world. One consequence is that in comparative terms Europe has an ageing population giving rise to concerns in the EU with regard to impacts on labour markets, pensions and the provision of care and health services. But Ireland has a high fertility rate According to Eurostat figures, the fertility rate for Ireland in 2009 was 2.07 children, one of the highest in Europe while in Germany, for example, it was 1.36. The average for the EU27 member states was 1.6 Ireland has one of the youngest populations in Europe While Europe has an ageing population, in comparative terms, Ireland does not. In 2008, for example, 11% of our population was over 65 years while in Germany the figure was 20%. Conversely, 20% of the Irish population was under 14 years while in Germany the figure was 13.7%. As a result, Ireland has one of the lowest old-age dependency ratios in Europe and the highest young-age dependency ratio. 1 Defined by Eurostat as the EU-27 plus Albania, Andorra, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Faeroe Islands, Iceland, Liechtenstein, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Switzerland and the Ukraine. 5 In the context of an ageing Europe Eurostat projects that by 2060 the old age dependency ratio in the EU27 states will be almost 53%. In Germany, for example, it is projected that the ratio will be 60%. In Ireland, by contrast, it is projected that the old age dependency ratio is projected to be 36%. Consequently, the pressure on pensions and services in Ireland is, in the short term at least, less than in other European countries. Rather than a reason for complacency, this provides Ireland with the opportunity to effectively plan for an ageing population in the medium to long term. Population Trends in Dublin 1991-2011 Ireland’s population grows strongly
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