The Greater Dublin Area: Ireland's Potential City-State of the Early 21St
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Technological University Dublin ARROW@TU Dublin Doctoral Built Environment 2010-01-01 The Greater Dublin Area: Ireland's Potential City-State of the Early 21st. Century Brian Hughes Technological University Dublin Follow this and additional works at: https://arrow.tudublin.ie/builtdoc Recommended Citation Hughes, B. (2010) The Greater Dublin Area: Ireland's Potential City-State of the Early 21st Century. Doctoral Thesis. Dublin, Technological University Dublin. doi:10.21427/D7JS4M This Theses, Ph.D is brought to you for free and open access by the Built Environment at ARROW@TU Dublin. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral by an authorized administrator of ARROW@TU Dublin. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 License THE GREATER DUBLIN AREA – IRELAND’S POTENTIAL CITY-STATE OF THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY Brian P. Hughes, Dip. Env. Econ., MeRSA, FSCS, FRICS Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD Dublin Institute of Technology Bolton Street Campus Supervisors: Professor John Ratcliffe PhD., Dean of Faculty of the Built Environment, DIT Emeritus Professor Dr Seamus Caulfield (UCD). Advisory Supervisor: Dr Brendan Williams (UCD) Frank McCann, Technical Quantitative Advice. Lecturing Schools: Construction, Real Estate and Construction Economics Spatial Planning and Environmental Management, Submitted on 29th June, 2009 Viva: January 14th, 2010 Post-Viva restructuring instructions received from Graduate Office on 9th March 2010 Final Submission: 8th September 2010 Internal Reader and Post-Viva Supervisor: Dr Lorcan Sirr Asst. Supervisor: Dr Brendan Williams i ABSTRACT THE GREATER DUBLIN AREA – IRELAND’S EMERGING CITY-STATE OF THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY Dublin’s superior population and employment growth, its scale size and unique urban agglomerative momentum will result in it emerging as Ireland’s ‘city state’ by mid-to- late 21st century. The hypothesis states that by then, the GDA is expected to be approaching half of the State’s population. The pivotal research question addressed is: can the GDA long-term differential population growth to that of the RoS area result in a 50% convergence of their respective populations and if so, when might this occur? The thesis develops the Hughes Years Matrix of Convergence ‘HYMOC’1 mathematical model, which represents this author’s spreadsheet matrix time indicator in years, to such convergence. This includes varying population parameters of differential exponential compound annual growth rates, from scenarios of demographic-specific start-points: ones which can accommodate select assumptions as to the GDA and RoS population sizes. From published CSO 2006 census data on town size, specifically it is the evidence of an emerging Dublin’s urban plateau, one that is swelling the growth of Ireland’s largest residentially-dominated towns. In combination with the capital’s emerging polycentric super-suburbs, together, they are creating an urban base that is unmatched in scale anywhere else in the State. Should this long-term demographic trend continue, it is likely that the GDA will consolidate its current signs of developing as Ireland’s city- state. That analogy, together with the range of mainly demographic tables, case studies and supporting data, are drawn together by way of synthesis, conclusions and recommendations for consideration by strategy planners and policy-makers. The thesis concludes that in the absence of a political will to recognise cities or to provide State- wide city-focused governance mechanisms, Dublin will continue to develop as a highly monocentric settlement – particularly for employment, and its imperious, primate growth de facto, will emerge as Ireland’s city-state of the 21st century. 1 Hughes Years Matrix of Convergence which is introduced and developed in Chapter 3, infra. ii DECLARATION I hereby certify that this material which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of Doctor of Philosophy, is entirely my own work and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed:_______________________________ Date: 8th September 2010. Brian Patrick Hughes ID: DO2125064, DT900/1 PhD iii DEDICATION To my wife Sue who keeps me on the straight and narrow. To daughters Gillian and Sinead and son Keith for their invaluable advice and technical assistance in bringing the thesis to a successful conclusion. To the three Saint Josephs whose intercessions have created the motivation to undertake and complete this work. Joseph The Worker Josemaria Escriva Joseph of Cupertino AMDG, 2010 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Prof. John Ratcliffe, my lead supervisor and Director of the Faculty of the Built Environment, Dublin Institute of Technology. To Dr Seamus Caulfield and Dr Brendan Williams, my thanks for their guidance and advice over the last seven years. I am also grateful for the opportunity to have participated in Dublin Institute of Technology’s stimulating research environment, not least with DIT’s Futures Academy and its Manager Dr Ela Krawczyk – on the Twice the Size project (2008), Envisioning Dublin (2008/09) and Dublin at he Crossroads (2009) also with Dr Williams on the Affordable Housing study (2008) and Housing Review (2009). Their enthusiasm for the subject area of my thesis was always inspiring. Emma Sherry my co-editor and Dr Lorcan Sirr, mentor and Internal Reader deserve particular mention. My academic and professional colleagues in DIT provided me with substantial and relevant information and continuous encouragement. While it is perhaps invidious to single out individuals for mention I must acknowledge the particular help that Thomas Dunne, Myles Keaveney and Frank McCann have provided me in my research, data scanning and processing. Frank’s guidance and advice on the mathematical aspects of the HYMOC model were invaluable as indeed was that of Paddy Prendergast who advised on map preparation. A special word of gratitude is due to Henk van der Kamp and Conor Skehan of the School of Spatial Planning and Environmental Management. My Heads of Department Martin Hanratty and Bernard Skelton played important roles, particularly in the final production stages of the work. I thank my wife Sue for her love and constant attention. My children Keith, Gillian and Sinead offered ongoing support and interest without which this work would not have been possible. 2007-2009 has been a particularly busy period, culminating in the marriages of Gillian to Nick and Sinead to Karl and the birth of my first grandchildren, Brian James and Patrick Joseph, sons of Keith and Tara and Donough, son of Sinead and Karl. Inspired by these and other life-marking events I also have valued the discussions, references and support from my friends, the advice and courteous help received from the Directors and staff of the CSO and in particular I am indebted to its Director of Census Aidan Punch and to my colleagues on its Expert Group. Thanks are also due to my fellow Directors of the Bolton Trust in Docklands Innovation Park. I am appreciative to all who participated in the many structured and semi-structured interviews, with discussants and academic colleagues who provided additional insights for the subject matter. v INDEX OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ABD Anywhere but Dublin ABP An Bord Pleanala, the Planning Appeals Authority APOCC All-Party Oireachtas Cttee. of the Constitution [Parliamentary Cttee.] APS Advanced Producer Services ATM Athlone-Tullamore-Mullingar Gateway under the NSS BLM Bettystown-Laytown-Mornington BMA Belfast Metropolitan Area BRD Balanced Regional Development BRF Bid Rent Function CA Centripetal Agglomeration CS Centrifugal Sprawl CBD Central Business District CPG Components of Population Growth CRUBE Consultancy and Research Centre for the Built Environment CSO Central Statistics Office DBC Dublin-Belfast Corridor DCC Dublin Chamber of Commerce DDA Dublin Docklands Authority DIT Dublin Institute of Technology DLR Dun Laoghaire Rathdown DoEHLG Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government ESDP European Spatial Development Perspective ESRI Economic and Social Research Institute FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIUS Forum for Irish Urban Studies FUR Functional Urban Region GaWC Globalisation and World Cities (Study Group and Network) GDA Greater Dublin Area GDP Gross Domestic Product GEMACA Group for European Metropolitan Areas Comparative Analysis GMA Gravity Mass and Attraction GNP Gross National Product GVA Gross Value Added HYMOC Hughes Years Matrix of Convergence IBEC Irish Business Employers Confederation ICI Immigrant Council of Ireland IFSC International Financial Services Centre IMF International Monetary Fund IPA Institute of Public Administration IT&C Information Technology and Communication JOC Joint Oireachtas Committee LE Local Enterprise MCR Mega-City Region MNC Multi-National Corporation MPC Marginal Propensity to Consume MTR Medium Term Review (ESRI, various) NAMA National Asset Management Agency vi NEG New Economic Geography NESC National Economic and Social Council NG Natural Growth (births less deaths) NIRSA National Institute for Regional Spatial Analysis (NUI, Maynooth) NISRA Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency NSS National Spatial Strategy NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units OMV Open Market Value PAYE Pay As You Earn PPSN Personal