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The Second Annual Sulaimani Forum 2014.Pdf SULAIMANI FORUM دﯾﺪاری ﺳﻠﻧﯽ ﻣﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﺴﻠﻴﻧﻴﺔ The Second Annual Sulaimani Forum “Navigating Challenges in the Middle East” AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF IRAQ SULAIMANI The American University of Iraq, Sulaimani Sulaimani – Kirkuk Main Road, Raparin Sulaimani, Iraq Tel: +964 (0)53-330-1011 E-mail: [email protected] facebook.com/auis.edu.iq twitter.com/AUIS_news youtube.com/auisvideos The Institute of Regional and International Studies E-mail: [email protected] twitter.com/IRISmideast The Second Annual Sulaimani Forum “Navigating Challenges in the Middle East” American University of Iraq, Sulaimani March 4 & 5, 2014 Conference Proceedings edited by Elizabeth Schmitz Sponsored by Table of Contents 6 Introduction 8 In Their Own Words 12 Executive Summary 14 Opening Plenary Session 18 Iraq: An Insider’s Perspective 24 Iraq’s Challenges in 2014 and Beyond 30 The Iranian Diplomatic ‘Shift’: Understanding Interests, Motives, and Implications 38 Syria’s Current Status and Future Prospects 48 Turkey: Internal Developments and External Relations 56 Realities of Investing in Iraq 62 The Tigris and Euphrates Dilemma: Water as an Instrument for Cooperation across the Region 68 The Future of Ethno-Sectarian Conflicts in the Middle East 74 Iraq Oil Policy: Implications for Domestic Politics, Ramifications for Regional Stability 80 Conclusion 88 #SuliForum on Social Media Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) The Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) examines the region’s most complex issues through rigorous scholarship, advanced research, and open dialogue among academics and influential public leaders. Drawing on the diversity of expertise at AUIS, the Institute researches historic, political, cultural, social, economic, scientific, and anthropological aspects of the KRG, Iraq and the Middle East. IRIS is housed at the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS), Iraq’s only independent, not-for-profit, American-style institution of higher learning. The University’s location in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq offers a safe space and a climate of tolerance that is uncommon in the Middle East, making it an attractive meeting place for people who cannot easily convene elsewhere. As a space for regional and international encounters, IRIS fosters mutual understanding and awareness that reaches across national borders, sectarian divisions, and differing perspectives, thus enriching IRIS’s numerous research endeavors. IRIS’s current areas of interest include energy, water resource management and policy, regional geopolitics, economic development, and gender. 6 Sulaimani Forum The Sulaimani Forum is IRIS’s signature annual event. Over the course of two days, scholars, experts, and policymakers from the region and the world convene to discuss the most pressing regional issues, current trends, and points of conflict. Through public lectures, open forums, smaller group discussions, and closed-door sessions, the academic and policy worlds meet to examine real-world problems and work together towards solutions. This year, influential public leaders and distinguished experts convened to discuss geopolitical dynamics in Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey, as well as critical regional issues including the water crisis, oil and gas, ethno-sectarianism, and the realities of investment and economic growth. The Second Annual Sulaimani Forum, held in March 2014 and summarized in these proceedings, was a tremendous success. Under the theme “Navigating Challenges in the Middle East,” the Forum featured distinguished experts and public leaders as well as a diverse audience. Prominent government officials from Iraq and abroad attended, including Foreign Minister of the Republic of Iraq Hoshyar Zebari; Foreign Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoğlu; National Security Advisor of Iraq Falah al-Fayyadh; Former Speaker of the Iraqi National Assembly Hajim Al-Hassani; Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan Idris Barzani; Former Vice President of Iraq Adil Abd Al Mehdi; Brett McGurk of the U.S. Department of State; and representative of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Sadeghi. Participants in the Forum also included prominent journalists such as BBC World anchor Pooneh Ghoddoosi, author and analyst Robin Wright, and former war correspondent and Al Monitor columnist Cengiz Çandar. Renowned experts on the panels included Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, Fanar Haddad of the National University of Singapore, Charles Tripp of the School of Oriental and African Studies, Kirk Sowell of Inside Iraqi Politics, and Fabrice Balanche of Universite de Lyon 2. Successful and influential businesspersons participated as well, including Faruk Mustafa Rasool of Faruk Group Holding, Shwan Taha of Rabee Securities, Philip Khoury of Impera Capital, and Esra Pelitozu of Selco Finance and Industrial Group. 7 The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… Dawn Dekle, President, AUIS “Our Sulaimani Forum is part of a mission as an institute of public benefit to provide a neutral and balanced venue for addressing contemporary critical issues. Our learning community is dedicated to diversity and to tolerance of all viewpoints to be considered and debated. In that spirit, I invite you to contribute to the ongoing dialogue in a healthy and constructive manner with respect for all speakers and viewpoints. During these next two days we have a golden opportunity to make history, and to shape the narrative and dialogue from this region. As president of the university, I challenge you to engage with the ideas presented and engage with each other.” 8 Barham Salih, Chairman of the Board, AUIS “It is one thing to talk about the Middle East in Davos or in Aspen, but it is something else for us in the region to bring together so many distinguished guests and to have this real discussion and this real debate about the future of our region.” “Iraqi Kurdistan is a secure, stable part of Iraq and enjoys good neighborly relations. What an irony. As I look back to the last decade and see the transformation of our relations with our Turkish neighbor, our Iranian neighbor, and even across the Arab world, it is quite remarkable what has been achieved. Still there is a lot that needs to be done. I very much hope the message from Sulaimani, and from Erbil and Duhok, is to affirm the reality that there can be no peace nor stable order in this part of the world without the recognition of the right of all the people of this part of the world. At the end of the day, Kurds, Arabs, Turks, Iranians, and other communities in this part of the world – despite our cultural attitudes and people’s attitude here and there – we are all bound by one basic vision and aspiration, and that is a high quality of life, peace, security and freedom.” “The Sulaimani Forum is the place where I hope we can have that debate. This is the place where we can see what unites us as people of this part of the world. We do not need to be stuck in history. We do not need to be condemned to history. We can change history. The history of the last ten years, as Minister Davutoğlu and my good friend Hoshyar Zebari can attest, has been transformed. What has been achieved thus far was unthinkable ten years ago. If we already achieved that, we can achieve a lot more.” “Our forum is convening at a time when we have tension between the KRG and the federal government in Baghdad. I am very happy to see many friends from Baghdad here. I am very pleased that our Prime Minister and others are here. I hope this forum will also be an opportunity to discuss the ways by which we can move beyond the present impasse. We all have to remember there are terrible and great dangers facing this part of the world – the rise in terrorism, the rise in extremism and polarization really threatens what could be achieved. This forum can be a way of enhancing our dialogue and bringing together the talent from across the region in order to achieve what we all deserve, a decent quality of life with peace, security and freedom.” “Education is at the heart of that vision. That’s why this university – that brings American style education to Sulaimani, to the Kurdistan Region, to Iraq and beyond – is really intended to be a tool for bringing people together, empowering our younger generation, and for making a better Middle East for all of us.” 9 Ali al-Adeeb, Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research “Higher education and university institutions have an important role in working to overcome society’s problems and crises, whether big or small. Science, culture and knowledge are the only elements which can help resolve many difficulties that the politicians and dignitaries face in tackling society’s dilemmas.” “In my capacity as an official in higher education and scientific research, I can attest to the important role of research centers, and universities’ social and scientific departments in serving this society and offering solutions to politicians who are sometimes too persistent with their own opinions... If we want to save ourselves and rescue our society, we should not assume that all our current attitudes are correct. Rather, we should review them. I think this dignified and noble gathering that we are attending today – this mini- United Nations – is an opportunity to think about this country, and specifically about the relations between the KRG and the central government… The cohesion and national unity inside the country is an important thing for regional unity.
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