Asean@50: Where do we go from here Beijing’s Chinese charm oensive Inside North Korea The fake news conundrum Summit host Singapore: Behind the scenes 24 hours that changed Malaysia

MCI(P) 096/08/2017 June - July 2018 INDEPENDENT • INSIDER • INSIGHTS ON ASIA

Give peace RIDINGa chance US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s THEhistoric meeting WAVES in Singapore could recalibrate ties between the OFWest and CHANGEAsia, and within Asia. Amid the disruption sweeping the world of work, there are ways to prepare for and thrive in the future economy

Letter from the Editor-in-Chief When Trump and Kim meet in Singapore

Dear Readers,

he on-off-on again summit has left many guessing whether it would actually be held and just what might come out of it. For us in Singapore, it has been a time Tof anticipation as many in the country – from security services and government officials to service industry staff and even us in the media – prepared to play host to a summit that could prove to be a significant moment in reshaping Asia’s geopolitical balance, if it lives up to its promise. The Straits Times, as the country’s most read English-language newspaper and website, welcomes you to Singapore. We have been serving readers in Singapore and Asia since July 1845, with a focus on developments in Asia. Our network of seasoned correspondents all around Asia has helped us carve out a niche for reporting and interpreting developments in South-east Asia, as well as the wider story of an emerging Asia. Uniquely, we offer an independent, insider perspective on Asia, especially on the complex interplay of ties between China and the United States, as well as the other key countries in the region – Japan, India and South Korea. In line with our emphasis on original content – meaning boots on the ground to gain first insights – our associate editor Rahul Pathak and senior executive photojournalist Desmond Foo travelled to Pyongyang recently to report on life in the North Korean capital. The duo found a heap of paradoxes. There were modern hospitals, four-lane roads and state-of-the-art science facilities. But there was also a deep and somewhat unsettling admiration for their leaders, 12-hour-long power cuts and too many orphans in some children’s homes. You’ll find interesting insights into North Korea in their full report in this issue. Deputy political editor Elgin Toh looks at the behind-the-scenes action that goes into the making of a high-level meet in Singapore and the considerations that those involved must take into account. Flip through the pages and you’ll also find perspectives on how the summit is viewed in countries around Asia. Summit aside, it has also been a busy past few weeks. The opposition coalition led by former premier Mahathir Mohamad scored a stunning victory in the Malaysian polls, ending the Umno-led pact’s six decades in power. Was the much talked about Malay tsunami a key factor in the dramatic vote? What unfolded behind the scenes in the 24 hours which saw power change hands, for the first time ever in Malaysia? Read our regional correspondent Leslie Lopez’s special report in this issue. For more independent, insider insights on Asia, sign up for our weekly ST Asia Report newsletter here: readsph.com/newsletter. And to enjoy more ST premium content on our website, do sign up for a two-week free trial subscription at readsph.com/starweekly.

Best regards

Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief The Straits Times & SPH’s English, Malay and Tamil Media Group 1 Asean@50: Where do we go from here Beijing’s Chinese charm oensive Inside North Korea The fake news conundrum Summit host Singapore: Behind the scenes 24 hours that changed Malaysia

MCI(P) 096/08/2017 June - July 2018 INDEPENDENT • INSIDER • INSIGHTS ON ASIA

Give peace RIDINGa chance US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s THEhistoric meeting WAVES in Singapore could recalibrate ties between the OFWest and CHANGEAsia, and within Asia. Amid the disruption sweeping the world of work, there are ways to prepare for and thrive in the future economy Contents

Asia Report June – July 2018 3 Inside The ‘Other Korea’ 10 Trump-Kim summit in Singapore: Intricacies of hosting Warren Fernandez a high-level event Editor-in-Chief, The Straits Times & SPH’s English, Malay and Tamil Media (EMTM) Group 12 A moveable feast for Trump and Kim Sumiko Tan Managing Editor, EMTM & Executive 14 Trump’s global Art of the Deal Editor, The Straits Times Tan Ooi Boon Denuclearisation models for N. Korea Senior Vice-President 16 (Business Development), EMTM Paul Jacob 18 East Asia keeps a close watch Associate Editor, The Straits Times Eugene Leow 20 Kim-Trump talks: New shift in power balance? Head, Digital Strategy, EMTM Irene Ngoo 23 Malaysia: How power changed hands in 24 hrs Vice-President (Editorial Projects Unit) EMTM Rosmah’s ‘Trying Times’ Zakir Hussain 26 Foreign Editor Shefali Rekhi 29 Mahathir’s unfinished business Asia News Network Editor, The Straits Times & 32 Malaysia’s GST a victim of populist politics Editor, ST Asia Report

Copy Desk 34 Trade row could spur China to deepen reforms Jack Hee Chief Sub-editor, The Straits Times 36 Zipping out to the shops

Design Peter Williams Head, Visual, EMTM & Art Editor, The Straits Times Manny A Francisco Cover illustration Marlone Rubio Executive Artist Anil Kumar Graphic Artist

Circulation Eric Ng Head, Circulation Marketing Tommy Ong Senior Manager (Circulation) We welcome your feedback and views Letters can be sent to Reach out to us: [email protected] For advertising enquiries: Sharon Lim Ling Senior Manager Published by (Business Development) The Straits Times, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH)

[email protected] Printed by Circulation & subscription: Markono Print Media Pte Ltd Delia Gan Executive All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or [email protected] in part without written permission from the publisher. 2 Inside The ‘Other Korea’

Housewives in olive-green uniforms waving flags in Pyongyang to encourage workers on their way to factories in the morning. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO

Rahul Pathak Associate Editor

Four-lane roads. Lexus on the streets. A modern eye centre inspired by Singapore’s own.

Here’s a glimpse Workers packing trams on their way to factories and offices. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO of Pyongyang, the public face North taxis at hospitals that ferry expectant children, marching along the streets, mothers for free. chanting to welcome their parents Korea wants the If he took the 110m-deep escalator back in the evening; smiling groups world to see. to the bowels of the earth – on which of university girls – each in identical, people stand perfectly still for fear of mandated, China doll hairstyles – railing falling – he would be deposited before against the Americans during daytime. orth Korea dresses up its a Metro station. If it is The Station of This is the public face of North Korea, scars in elegant clothing. Prosperity, he would take in its smooth the only one that a visitor is allowed A visitor to Pyongyang grey arched ceiling and frescos of tall to see. It seems a modern metropolis, would see smooth, wide buildings and thriving industry. confident in its skin. Of late, it has roads – some run four On the roads he would hear music perfected its camera smile. Nlanes in each direction – with trams and – bands of housewives in olive-green The first chill of winter is blowing Lexus cars and a string of new taxis uniforms beating drums and waving flags over the city when we arrive in early that charge US$1 (S$1.36) for every to encourage workers on their way to October, 2017. The North Korean 2km. These are different from the red factories in the morning; red-scarfed authorities have agreed to let The Straits

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STATEMENT BUILDINGS From an orphanage and a hungry child we move to the other extreme. Pyongyang’s new children’s hospital comes with its own helipad, a telemed- icine facility that links it to hospitals across the country, and top-end equip- ment from Italy and Germany. It has its own kindergartens and a staff of 180 doctors to tend to 200 children daily. The eye hospital next door – inspired by the Singapore National Eye Centre, an official tells us – offers free Lasik surgery to those its doctors deem fit. The Station of Glory at Pyongyang Metro has elegant arches and a picture of the late leader Kim Jong Il against a blazing hillside. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO The country has always attempted to make a statement through striking projects, even if some – like the We are shown an infirmary where 105-storey pyramid-shaped Ryugyong children lie on bunk beds. “What is he Hotel, which stands unfinished 30 years suffering from?” we ask about a boy. after construction began – failed to She replies: “He can’t sleep. It comes deliver a punchline. from a lack of nutrition.” Even its currency is a mirage. One The shortage of food has haunted the US dollar buys you 8,000 North Korean country since the 1990s, when flooding won (KPW) at government-run money and famine conspired to kill up to one changers. But to inject it with artificial million people. North Koreans call it the strength, it insists that the official ex- Arduous March. “I remember growing change rate is KPW 900 to a US dollar. up when there was so little food to eat,” We are shown the Munsu Water Park says Miss Kim Jong A, 27, from the – just slightly smaller than Universal Committee for Cultural Relations With Studios Singapore – at which real sea Foreign Countries, who accompanies us. water has been transported to take its “Things are much better now.” place among nine indoor pools – one Each citizen is given 300g of rice for A nurse comforting a child at a Pyongyang just for mothers and children – with orphanage. Some children there suffer from each meal, fresh vegetables and some temperature kept at a balmy 27 deg C. It malnutrition. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO fish every two weeks. also has nine saunas on offer and a giant But these are subsistence rations and bucket splashing water on children. The Times see some parts of Pyongyang they must buy the rest themselves. entry charge is US$1 and for another while two of their officers escort us. Some still seem unable to, and 13 US cents, you can get a haircut and They admit that they are showing the latest World Hunger Index report a half-body massage. us “model” facilities in the heart of a released in October 2017 says that two If that sounds cheap, consider this: capital city that is so pampered that in five North Koreans are malnourished. The average person earns S$119 a other North Koreans cannot visit it We did not see any overweight people month. Of course, officials are keen to without first obtaining a permit. in our seven days in the country. point out that this is offset by the free But sometimes the mask slips to reveal a more painful truth. The red apartment blocks, containing the largest flats in the country, house the scientists from At the Pyongyang Orphanage and Pyongyang’s Kim Chaek University of Technology. In the background is the pyramid-shaped Nursery, a miniature train rattles along Ryugyong Hotel. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO a circular track bearing children who whoop and wave each time they catch your eye. Sixty teachers work in eight- hour shifts to care for 100 orphans from Pyongyang, each aged below four. Why are there 100 young orphans in Pyongyang? Lecturer Byong Song Ok hesitates, then says that the number of orphans is perhaps 30. The rest are children of sportspeople who are representing the country in international competitions. But, still, why are there 30 children aged below four who have lost both parents in a city of 2.6 million people? “Natural disasters,” says Ms Byong.

4 The state-run Munsu Water Park covers an area of 15ha and comes with nine pools, nine saunas and water rides. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO housing, education and healthcare that Among the finest examples of free each month, after which they must buy the state provides. public housing is the new home of Pro- more. The professor enjoys a quota of But a visit to the Pyongyang School fessor Ri Man Kun, a telecommunica- 450 kilowatt hours per month, more Bag Factory shows just how empty some tions scientist from Kim Chaek Uni- than three times the average home’s pockets are. versity of Technology. It is a sprawling, quota. A typical Singapore household The factory – built in 140 days with five-room 220 sq m affair on the 19th consumes 468 kwh each month. its U-shaped structure “like a mother’s floor, with a 24-hour electricity supply. The shortage of power, which Prof embrace” according to its spokesman, The average North Korean starts life in Kim assures us is being addressed with produces backpacks for schoolchildren a 30-40 sq m home and can graduate to new hydroelectric power stations, plays that retail at between KPW 26,000 a 100 sq m four-room flat after 30-odd tricks with the landscape. (S$4.40) and KPW 34,000. Asked how years of contributing to society, and en- We drive three hours from Pyongyang much the average worker takes home, dures power cuts of up to 11 hours a day. to see the demilitarised zone that she confesses it is around KPW 100,000 All eyes are drawn to the electricity separates it from South Korea. The a month. In other words, S$17 or the meter in the corner with its languidly North Korea one sees in the evening, cost of three or four schoolbags. turning disc. “Our electricity quota is while on the way back, is nothing like so large that I don’t even have to look the preening Pyongyang that we left CHALLENGES at the meter,” says Mrs Ri proudly. earlier that morning. ARISING FROM Homes are allotted quotas for the The road is rutted. The silhouettes SANCTIONS amount of power they can consume of the power stations spewing smoke Professor Kim Sang Hak from Pyong- yang’s Economic Research Institute ac- knowledges the challenges facing a coun- try of 25 million people, whose gross domestic product of US$28.5 billion is less than a third of Mr Bill Gates’ net worth and a tenth of Singapore’s GDP. He says that the country has been steadily raising food production on its cooperative farms as double – and even triple – cropping kicks in. The sanctions imposed by the United Nations, which economically isolate the country, will make it harder for the state to fund free housing, education and healthcare. “But if we lose these social benefits, we lose Pyongyang looking dark at night, with no street lamps and only specks of light inside homes. our socialism,” he says. Power outages are common. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO

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against the orange sky are made more stark by the darkness of the unlit housing blocks in their shadow. Even Pyongyang, as we enter it, wears a more subdued mood. There are no street lamps lighting up its wide roads. The towering, uncompleted Ryugyong Hotel stands sheepishly visible from anywhere in the city. This is Pyongyang in its nightclothes. When dawn breaks, it will put on its public face and dress elegantly again. SCIENTISTS WOOED WITH PERKS Every now and then, a woman traffic warden in her smart uniform will turn to salute a passing car on Pyongyang’s streets. She knows from the number plate – it includes the digits 07 27 – that it belongs to a party official. The numbers signify July 27, the date in 1953 on which the three-year Korean War ended with the signing of an armistice agreement. North Koreans call it Victory Day. A re-enactment of the Korean War shown on a large screen at the Liberation War Museum. Other Party officials have traditionally en- exhibits at the museum include the USS Pueblo, a US Navy ship that was captured by North Korean joyed the biggest perks in North Korea. forces when it allegedly entered North Korean territorial waters in 1968. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO Over the past two years, though, scien- At Kim II Sung University, 1,780 a country prone to floods and famine. tists are being serenaded as never before. families of professors – mainly scien- Whatever the reasons, science ap- Crimped by the United Nations sanc- tists – have just moved into spacious pears to be Pyongyang’s top priority. tions that are choking the country’s sup- new homes given to them free of charge. A new Sci Tech Park, built in the ply of critical materials, and in a hurry to Another 1,050 scientists from Kim shape of an atom, hosts 3,000 computers develop nuclear and missile technology, Chaek University of Technology have and a central database of all scientific North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is been favoured with an even greater issues. It is linked to each of the 300 turning to his scientists to find a way. prize – the largest apartments ever universities and colleges in the country. built in the country, spread across six It is also being used to attract children 46-storey blocks, a short walk from their to science, with models on how satellites workplace. Each is 200 sq m or larger, communicate, ships sail, magnets work and boasts 24-hour power supply. and steel is produced. “Our entrance fee The country’s obsession with space- is less than the cost of an ice cream,” age weaponry is well documented. “We will not retreat an inch from building Completed in 2015, the new sci-tech complex up our nuclear capabilities,” says Mr houses museums, computer labs and a library. It is shaped like an atom - the building in the Hwang Chol, a top Foreign Ministry middle a nucleus, with others surrounding it official. like electrons. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO Now North Korea’s fragile economy has also pinned its hope on scientists, says Professor Kim Sang Hak from Pyong- yang’s Economic Research Institute. They are needed to conjure up sub- stitutes for every mineral missing from this fenced-off land. “One normally needs coke to pro- duce steel, but we have no coke de- posits,” says Prof Kim. “Our scientists are helping us produce steel using an- thracite.” This is a hard coal containing relatively pure carbon. The scientists are also making chemical fertilisers without crude There are smartly dressed female wardens oil, building windmills and, crucially, directing traffic at every junction. developing seeds to best suit farmers in ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO

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LESSONS IN ANOTHER WORLD So this is what war feels like. You can see the soldiers with their machine guns, crouching under trees - figures so life-like that the sound of their gunfire makes you flinch. You can see the American aircraft raining death, targeting even civilians huddled under a bridge. The story of the Korean War, from 1950 to 1953, is being re-enacted on a circular screen 132m-long, 15m-high, with forests, campfires and figurines of dead and dying soldiers arranged in the foreground. Forty artists worked for 18 months to create this warscape and it unfolds as your rotating stage slowly takes in the entire panorama. By the time it ends, some of the North Korean children brought to watch this – and they all are – have clenched jaws and grim faces. Some are fighting back tears. A guide in front of the Monument to the Three- They have learnt that the US dropped Point Charter for National Reunification, which 32,557 tonnes of napalm – an incendiary was opened in August 2001 to commemorate liquid that scorches the skin – on the Korean reunification proposals put forward by Kim II Sung. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO Koreans to burn down entire forests and those hiding in them. That more bombs says a spokesman for the park. has resounded like a whiplash. were dropped on Pyongyang – 432,000 The well-publicised perks for scien- Images from the Korean War are tists have touched a chord. – than its entire population of 400,000. burnt into every citizen’s psyche. More Mr Ham Pyong Gil, a spokesman for That no city in their country was spared. than 60 years on, the possibility that Kim Il Sung University, says that some That more than two million Koreans died. the same superpower could re-enact an science courses now attract five times As they step out of the theatre at even more terrible war is being used by as many applicants as there are places. Liberation War Museum, they are shown officials to justify North Korea’s missile Candidates have to take a written test. the actual American bombers and tanks and nuclear programme. They need good grades to even qualify that were captured during that war on With a shortage of funds but a surfeit for the test. display outside. This was not a movie. of bravado, Pyongyang is spelling out This is creating Pyongyang’s own This happened, the children are told. its intentions in concrete. version of the paper chase. “Many of “The enemy killed the Korean people Its new sci-tech complex is shaped my students are stressed,” says Ms just for pleasure,” says First Lieutenant like an atom - the building in the middle Kim Yong Sik, principal of Moranbong Jang Un Hye, her voice low. a nucleus, with others surrounding it like Middle School No. 1. “That is because It is in this country – and among electrons. A new housing block – green, the expectations of the parents are high, these people – that US President Donald white and futuristic – rises to the sky in but the ability of the children is limited.” Trump’s rhetoric to rain “fire and fury” the exact shape of a rocket.

Pupils at Kyongsang Kindergarten in Pyongyang playing at an indoor playground. Like other children in the state-run nursery system, they undergo a two-year programme from as young as 2½ years old to learn about the country’s leaders. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO

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through the hotel’s line. No piece of information that is not sanctioned is allowed to creep through the North Korean border. In contrast, Mr Trump’s threat plays repeatedly over state-run TV, crackles across state-supervised Intranet, and is splashed on bulletin boards at street corners and metro stations. North Korea’s own version of history is also drummed into every child through 12 years of education. Every child is taught that the Korean peninsula is a single country that has been occupied in the south by the US since World War II. With force and fire. Occupied by Japan for 35 years, Korea was divided into two along the 38th Parallel in 1945, with the Soviet Union in charge of the North and the Thrill seekers at Kaeson Youth Amusement Park, where Mr Kim Jong Un is said to have tested US running the South. Most historians all the rides. The park is one of the few avenues for Pyongyang’s residents to get a dose of fun. agree that it was the North, led by then ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO President Kim Il Sung, that started the Korean War in an effort to reunify the moderate arsenal will stop the US from two Koreas. attacking it. In Pyongyang’s version, it was the It is a logic that appeals to many of his US that started the war. “They were the fellow citizens who have been clinically warmakers... they have always wanted cut off from the world, with far lower to wipe us off the map,” says Mr Hwang. earnings, per head, than Bangladesh, The children learn this in school. but who have been taught, from a young age, that the US is their enemy. At Moranbong Middle School No. “The enemy is striking us with a 1, we move from a classroom where sword and we cannot allow ourselves students are conversing in English – every child in the country is now taught Children performing for visitors at Kyongsang to be killed by it,” says a young soldier Kindergarten. Most sing songs in praise of at the demilitarised zone on the border the language from the age of seven – to their leaders or against the Americans. Every with South Korea. another where they are learning about child in North Korea is taught that the Korean Like most others, he has never surfed the lives of their leaders, and then to one peninsula is a single country that has been devoted to the pain that their country occupied in the south by the US since World the Internet, made or received a call War II. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO from outside the country’s borders, let has suffered at the hands of the Japanese alone been overseas. He even needs a and the Americans. There is a life-size Mr Hwang Chol, a top Foreign Minis- permit to travel to Pyongyang since he figure of a Caucasian priest carving try official, says without hesitation: “We is not registered as a resident there. The the word “Thief” on the forehead of a are proud of our nuclear programme. It is isolation is complete. hungry boy who stole an apple. keeping peace in the Korean peninsula.” You get a taste of it as you enter In the kindergartens that we visit, the He spells out the rationale that North Pyongyang on a weary Tupolev plane only toys children play with are plastic Korea is spreading among its people. run by Air Koryo from Beijing and are models of tanks, guns and aircraft. “Libya and Iraq show that if you are asked to declare every book and item They are taught music from a young not strong, you will be eaten up by the in your possession. The pictures on your age, and we hear them sing: “We are strong,” says Mr Hwang. “Libya gave up phone are scrutinised. Once inside the building up our bodies...To reunify its weapons and... see what happened city’s borders, there is no phone or Korea... And drive away the US... From to Gaddafi? Iraq got attacked because Internet service and you can call only our country.  US knew it didn’t have weapons of mass destruction in the first place.” He claims that Libyan leader Muam- The Monument to Party Founding mar Gaddafi was killed by Nato-backed in Pyongyang is dedicated to the setting up of the Workers’ Party of rebels in 2011 only because he had halt- Korea. It is rich in symbolism, with ed his nuclear and chemical weapons the hammer representing workers, the programme years earlier. And that Iraqi sickle symbolising farmers and the calligraphy brush denoting intellectuals. leader Saddam Hussein was captured ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO following a US-led invasion and exe- cuted in 2006 because he was “weak”. The North Korean arsenal is no match for that of the US. Its nuclear warheads number fewer than 60, while the US is known to have 4,480 which are many times more powerful. But Pyongyang’s calculation is that even a

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The man behind Pyongyang’s monuments

he man behind most of the monuments that define Pyongyang is about to weep. Mr Ro Ik Hwan, 83, master sculptor at Mansudae TStudio, has gone back in time, all the way to 1970, when he was building the Grand Monument of Mansu Hill - a giant, 22m statue in tribute to North Korea’s Eternal President Kim Il Sung. His eyes well up with tears as he recounts the story.

A statue of Eternal President Kim II Sung and his son Kim Jong II on horses, with the latter’s horse kicking higher to make up for their height difference. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO

Mr Kim Il Sung – who is also known gave “on-the-spot guidance” to vastly as Marshal and General for fighting the improve their work. They will also tell Japanese, who occupied the country for you the exact number of times a leader 35 years – is regarded as the patriarch visited a spot. The places where they sat who founded the nation. A sign carved are marked with a red plate. on a hillside outside Pyongyang, visible “Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un for miles, says: “Follow marshal to the gave instructions 17 times,” says the Master sculptor Ro Ik Hwan weeps while end of sky and land’. spokesman at Pyongyang School Bag narrating a story involving Mr Kim II Sung, The little home where he was born Factory. “He said there should be more who is regarded as the patriarch who in a family of gravekeepers – a tranquil padding where the strap of the backpack founded the nation. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO setting amid forests and magpies – is a touches the shoulder and less at the pilgrimage for children. They are told bottom of the strap so that little hands “The president was returning from that at the age of four, he wrote Long could hold it.” a farm when he saw the construction Live Independence Of Korea. And when At an amusement park, the guide site. He said, ‘Please don’t build this his son, Kim Jong II, was four, he wrote Kim Hye Gum will tell you that leader statue as I still haven’t done enough to Long Live General Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Un personally tested every improve the standard of living of the Every time North Koreans come ride – from the carousel to the roller- people’. But the officials said to him, across a statue or picture of father and coaster – to ensure that it was safe. ‘President, we have never disobeyed son – often together – they bow. You will be told that Mr Kim Il Sung you. But this time we must. This is the There is one of them at Mansudae died in 1994 and the last documents he desire of the people’.” Studio, riding horses and Mr Ro signed were an attempt to reunify the There is no North Korean alive today, describes how he got around the height Koreas. And that Mr Kim Jong Il died who has known any leader other than difference between the two. Mr Kim Il on a train and his last gesture was to Eternal President Kim Il Sung, his son Sung was a tall man. His son was not. “I ensure that the people of Pyongyang leader Kim Jong Il (who could not be made leader Jong Il’s horse kick higher were given fish with their rations. president since his father was declared so that the two figures are almost level,” “Foreigners will never understand eternal president) and grandson and he says. how we feel about our leaders,” says incumbent Kim Jong Un, who simply North Koreans will also tell you how Miss Kim Jong A from the Committee wears the title of Supreme Leader. their three leaders visited a site and for Cultural Relations With Foreign Countries. “We feel blood-bonded with them.” When Mr Kim Jong Il died, his statue The ancestral was placed alongside his father’s at home of Mr Kim II Sung has Mansu Hill and, in death, they were been preserved the same height. to inculcate We never did get to see the “revolutionary monument, though. We were told that thinking” among the young. a plot to blow up the statues had been Children are often uncovered and the monument was out taken there on a of bounds for foreigners. pilgrimage. ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO [email protected] 

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Elgin Toh Deputy Political Editor Trump-Kim summit in Singapore: Intricacies of hosting a high-level event

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is likely to stay at The Fullerton Hotel. STPHOTO: KUA CHEE SIONG

hen organisers of the parity be achieved, say past and present global affairs at the Singapore Institute Trump-Kim summit diplomats and protocol officers, as of International Affairs. As one former scout for a venue, well as international relations scholars Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) one simple but crit- interviewed. diplomat, who declined to be named, ical ingredient is a But they add that if any country quips: “We only provide the tea and Wroom with multiple doors. can pull it off, it is Singapore, an old coffee.” Protocol dictates that President hand at organising other high-level Donald Trump of the United States and events – including two historic China- PLANES, CARS AND Chairman Kim Jong Un of North Korea Taiwan meetings in 1993 and 2015, the should not enter via the same entrance annual Shangri-La Dialogue and Asean COFFEE for their bilateral meeting – to avoid the meetings. But serving tea and coffee is not as perception that one arrived first and is Singapore’s role, as host, is “to pro- simple as it sounds. “waiting” for the other. vide a peaceful, safe and conducive No detail is too small. For one thing, This is just one of the many intricacies environment for the summit”, Ambas- that coffee. of hosting the June 12 summit, during sador-at-Large Ong Keng Yong tells The Many foreigners are not used to the which a sitting American president and Straits Times. “The host should also be local Nanyang coffee, notes a retired MFA a North Korean leader will meet for the ready to provide any other assistance protocol officer with a smile. An inter- first time since the Cold War that saw as requested by the two sides, provided national brew has to be served instead. Korea split into two. On the table for that this is within the ability of the host Many other behind-the-scenes consid- discussion are, among other issues, a to provide,” he adds. erations have to be thought through, from possible denuclearisation deal. What Singapore offers is a backdrop, security to logistics to ensuring – as Dr With such high stakes involved, the say those interviewed. “It is not Alan Chong of the S. Rajaratnam School smallest detail can be sensitive and it our meeting nor our show,” says Mr of International Studies (RSIS) puts it is paramount that an appearance of Nicholas Fang, director of security and – “an atmosphere of visible equality”.

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as a host receiving his visitor. For now, word is that President Trump may stay at Shangri-La Hotel and Chairman Kim could stay at The Fullerton Hotel – with the summit likely to be held at Capella Hotel or another hotel on Sentosa. Also potentially contentious is the question of who gets a seat at the main table for any banquet. The retired protocol officer says he once saw a round table set up to fit 36 guests – to avoid disagreements. He added that the South Korean media has been known to publish complete graphical guides on who is sitting where at such banquets. Such details will be important in this summit, given Singapore’s longstanding Armed Special Operations Command security personnel positioned near the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, during the recently concluded IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. PHOTO: EPA-EFE ties with the US. The North Koreans may be especially “It is a complex operation and we comparable to the American sedans. sensitive, says Dr Ong-Webb. North should salute our officers who are Based on diplomatic convention, each Korea is frequently treated as a rogue dealing with the preparations,” says of the two leaders will be accompanied state and often finds itself having to Mr Ong, noting that multiple ministries by a Singapore Cabinet minister during “negotiate its sovereignty” on the and agencies will be involved. These the trip. international stage. As host, Singapore include the Foreign Affairs, Home The importance of parity is also why, succeeds if the North Koreans feel Affairs, Defence, Communications and despite initial chatter of the summit respected here, he adds. Information, and Transport ministries taking place at Marina Bay Sands, this and agencies. is unlikely to happen, says Dr Ong- NEED FOR PLANS B, Dr Graham Ong-Webb of RSIS notes Webb. It is owned by American magnate that Singapore is taking charge of the Sheldon Adelson, a friend of President C AND D form and not the substance of the Trump. Holding the meeting there could Another reason Singapore was cho- summit – but added that the form can compromise the air of neutrality and sen as the venue for the summit is its be very important, as it ensures that “on equality, he says. tight security, say analysts. an emotional, psychological and mental Also, neither leader should stay at the Singapore is known for its good level, the people doing the discussing summit venue – again, so nobody is seen border security and its ability to lock are in the best possible setting”. “Protocol can make or break summits,” he adds. This is why, prior to the summit, there Landmark meetings hosted by Singapore will be discussions between Singapore and both parties, “which would allow MA-XI MEETING us to better understand the situation, Singapore hosted a meeting including possible sensitivities”, says between Chinese President Xi Mr Ong. Jinping and then Taiwanese With just a week left before the President Ma Ying-jeou in 2015. meeting, such preparations are now in It was the first such summit since full swing. the Chinese civil war reached a The need for Singapore to foster stalemate in 1949. The meeting an air of equality between the two symbolised closer China-Taiwan visiting leaders begins the moment ties, though no agreements or their planes land, says Dr Chong. If joint statements were made. President Trump’s Air Force One looks much more impressive than the plane Chairman Kim arrives in, the Koreans KOO-WANG TALKS may insist the press not be allowed to The 1993 Koo-Wang talks were the first cover the airport arrival. The journalists public meeting between China and Taiwan could then be invited to only the official since the end of hostilities in 1949. Four reception at the Istana. agreements were inked, marking a new era The cars they ride in must also of cooperation. The two sides, technically be equally dignified. The Americans still at war, pledged to deepen business bring their own cars along on their and cultural ties. They were represented overseas trips – including the armoured by semi-official groups: China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan presidential “The Beast”, a Cadillac. The Straits, led by Mr Wang Daohan, and Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation, North Koreans, meanwhile, may have to led by Mr Koo Chen-fu. rent from a local company cars that look

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down meeting venues, says Dr Ong- them throughout the trip. planned six months to a year in advance, Webb. He cites the case of a Gurkha Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen has analysts note. But this one is being put officer shooting dead a driver who confirmed Singapore will bear the together in weeks. failed to stop at a checkpoint during security costs of the summit, adding: One risk for Singapore is if the summit the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2015. For “It’s a cost we’re willing to bear to play ends with no agreement, says Dr Chong. security experts, this case provides a small part.” The two sides may, in addition to point- further evidence that security here is Finally, the smooth running of a sum- ing fingers at each other, may want to “rock solid”. mit also involves clockwork precision place some blame on the host, he adds. That said, nothing can be guaranteed logistics. One last variable that could throw a as security involves unknowables, says Dr Leaders must not be made to wait spanner in the works: the unpredictable Inwook Kim, an international relations in awkward silence – especially if the personalities of President Trump and expert at the Singapore Management press is in view, says the retired pro- Chairman Kim. They may – say, as a University. tocol officer. One trick of the trade is negotiating tactic – refuse to stick to The retired protocol officer says to place them in holding rooms. Once a pre-agreed itinerary, says Dr Chong. many foreign leaders bring along their ready, they will enter the meeting room “This will challenge the most well- own armed security personnel. They at the same time. rehearsed protocol. The Singapore must declare to Singapore the arms Another challenge of this summit is officials will just have to play by ear. and ammunition they carry, and will be accommodating the international press They must have not just Plan B, but issued a certificate after being informed contingent, which is likely to be huge, Plans C and D as well.” of local rules of engagement. Singapore adds Dr Kim. usually assigns armed officers to shadow Most summits of this magnitude are [email protected] 

A moveable feast for Trump and Kim

Singapore has much to offer as host of the landmark summit

Ravi Velloor Associate Editor

ustria, a small and neutral state,” its Federal Presi- A successful summit would be a huge feather in Singapore’s cap, elevating its reputation dent Adolf Scharf said in for fair dealing and neutrality; but a less successful one will not take anything away from it. May 1961, “does not take PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE part in the summit itself Abut the Austrians and the Viennese want There is the Marina Bay Sands Hotel, the talks were not successful due to to do everything they can to ease the im- the iconic hostelry owned by Trump last-minute hitches, it did lead to the plementation of the talks, and to make supporter Sheldon Adelson, which is a Intermediate Range Nuclear Force the encounter between the participants quick ride on the “Beast” from the Paya Treaty inked the following year. pleasant and comfortable.” Lebar Air Base that Air Force One has “Our job is to just provide the table,” Those words set the stage for the traditionally plonked down on, whether says a seasoned Singaporean diplomat historic first meeting between newly to ferry Mr Barack Obama here in 2009 now retired. “We’ve done this kind of elected United States President John for the Apec Summit or on the two visits thing earlier, but not at the same scale. Kennedy and the mercurial Soviet his predecessor, Mr George W. Bush, Of course, this time we are hosting two leader Nikita Khrushchev. made here in 2003 and 2006. Or, for a unpredictable chaps, needless to say.” It is the merry month of May again and picture against a setting sun should the although in decidedly warmer climes, talks go well, a convenient location on SECURITY Mr Scharf’s remarks may well frame the Sentosa island may not be a bad idea. sentiments of Singapore’s leadership. Still, more humble venues are not DEMANDS The island has been confirmed as the unknown. When presidents Ronald When a city hosts two world leaders venue for the landmark talks on June Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met who are each not short on enemies, 12 between US President Donald Trump in Reykjavik, Iceland, for their all- security is the biggest nightmare. and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. important summit in 1986, the venue As good hosts, the authorities will no There is no shortage of comfortable was the former French consulate, a doubt listen carefully to every demand locations for the two to meet. modest three-storey building. While put forth by the twin delegations. But

12 often they tend to be excessive and it is sometimes necessary to put a heavy foot down. For instance, a visiting Indian leader may be used to having traffic blocked for him for an hour before his motorcade passes; in Singapore, that tends to be a matter of just minutes. Even so, there is little question that this is one meeting for which the local authorities will leave nothing to chance. Hence, there is an equally strong chance that it may, ultimately, fall to the Shangri- La Hotel to host the summiteers, if only because the local authorities are so used to mounting maximum security events there and sterilising it for security. That the summit will take place just after White House spokesman Raj Shah said Singapore was chosen because it could ensure the the annual Shangri-La Dialogue (June security of both leaders and provide neutrality. PHOTO: ST FILE 1 to 3) would mean most of the security drills for the place would have been third-party venue provider. In July and between the US and Singapore aside, rehearsed by the time Mr Trump and August 1985, India sought to organise he has reason to feel more comfortable Mr Kim sit down. peace talks in Thimphu, capital of here than in most other Asian spots – A successful summit would be a huge the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, Singapore, after all, does not run a trade feather in Singapore’s cap, elevating between the Sri Lankan government surplus with his country. And having its reputation for fair dealing and and the island’s Tamil insurgents. flown all the way, it might make good neutrality; but a less successful one will Subsequently, even though the talks sense to also turn it into a bilateral visit not take anything away from it. failed, the Thimphu Principles – a set honouring a trusted friend. Back in 1995, when Singapore was of four demands set forth by the Tamils But there is another issue; more than touted as the venue for the inaugural – became enshrined in the annals of twice the age of his 34-year-old inter- summit of the World Trade Organisation foreign policy discussions. locutor, it is a fair bet that his handlers to be held at the end of the following US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would ensure the 45th President, who year, there were many hand-wringers has set a high bar for success: the imme- turns 72 next month, is well rested and in government. There was fear that diate “permanent, verifiable, irreversible alert before he sits down with the third Singapore’s image would be dented if dismantling of North Korea’s weapons of the Kim dynasts, who, despite his the talks, which involved several ticklish of mass destruction programme”. It is relative inexperience, has shown re- issues, failed. Others fretted that non- important, therefore, to keep realistic markable agility in his foreign policy. governmental organisations would expectations. North Korea’s nuclear “He is not dumb, he is *** smart,” disrupt the proceedings. prowess was not built in a day and nei- Mr Kennedy is said to have remarked, as In the end, hosting the summit ther will its dismantling be rapid. he read through the CIA’s psychological cemented Singapore’s reputation as profile of Mr Khrushchev, ahead of their the pre-eminent trading nation and the talks. Nearly six decades later, that movement on several key issues that the GETTING PREPARED could be said for Mr Kim too. summit achieved was just another layer While Singapore can expect Mr For his part, Mr Kim would probably on the kueh. Kim to fly in and out, Mr Trump may have been told by Chinese President Xi Likewise, failure or lack of immediate probably choose to spend more time Jinping, whom he visited in Dalian in success is not a shameful event for a on the island. The tight strategic ties May, that it would be prudent for him to keep his points short and not to speak for more than five minutes at a stretch. Aware of Mr Trump’s short attention span, that is the way Mr Xi himself is said to have prepared for his evidently successful summit with the US President last year at Mar-a-Lago. One thing neither party will be short of on the island is home food. Mr Kim would know there are plenty of fine dining places that could supply him good kimchi or bibimbap, or if he were to follow his Swiss tastes, fine raclette. As for Mr Trump there always is Morton’s of Chicago for a fine steak or Wolfgang Puck’s Cut. Anyway you like it, and in more ways than one, Singapore is a moveable feast. The iconic Marina Bay Sands Hotel has figured in discussions about the likely venue for the Trump-Kim summit PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [email protected]  13 Cover Story

Jonathan Eyal Europe Correspondent Trump’s global Art of the Deal Whether it involves Iran or North Korea or trade issues, Trump has upended US foreign policy

S President Bill Clinton was served by a total of only two secretaries of state during his entire eight years in the White House. UMr George W. Bush, who succeeded him, also had only two secretaries of state during his eight-year stint as America’s GN chief executive. And so did Mr Barack EI Obama. But President Donald Trump R CY has already had two secretaries of state O LI within his first year in the Oval Office. F O To many, this basic fact alone is fre- P quently offered as proof of Mr Trump’s chaotic conduct of foreign policy, and his fickle disregard for people, established procedures and normal diplomatic norms. For this is the president who threatens to unleash a trade war, reserves his biggest disdain for America’s closest allies and admiration for America’s traditional foes, who has torn up a nuclear treaty with Iran, and who has also upended decades of US diplomacy That should do it! in the Middle East by authorising the opening of the new US Embassy in the Israeli capital of Jerusalem.

This is a president who – according REAGAN’S ST ILLUSTRATION: CEL GULAPA to the multitude of his detractors – ACHIEVEMENTS determines foreign policy by listening One such person was Mr Ronald to those stroking his inflated ego, or by Reagan, the former B-movie Hollywood “consulting” his own deep ignorance of actor who came to power at the height of Russia “within five minutes”. international affairs, a leader who makes of the Cold War and, despite his total “Irresponsible”, “unworthy of his decisions guided solely by a petulant position”, “a madman who’d unleash desire to dismantle the legacy of Mr lack of foreign policy experience, not a World War” were some of the more Obama, his immediate predecessor. only ordered the deployment of powerful Perhaps. But what if the legions of new nuclear missiles in close proximity polite expressions thrown at Mr Reagan the “OMG, look what Trump has done to the Soviet Union’s borders, but also at that time. But what was the verdict today” critics turn out to be wrong? pronounced dead the Strategic Arms of history? He is credited with helping What if, far from being the irredeemable Limitation Talks, a key disarmament to bring about the end of the Cold War, failure he is portrayed as today, Mr negotiation process at that time on which while restoring America’s confidence Trump’s foreign policy turns out to be diplomats had worked for over a decade. after the Vietnam debacle. And it was successful? And what if – perish the Mr Reagan also unleashed a so-called Mr Reagan, that arch-cold warrior who thought – there is actually a method in Star Wars programme, a fantastic mega- supposedly never read anything more his foreign policy madness? project supposed to render America profound than Readers’ Digest, who also There were other US presidents who impregnable to attacks from its enemies, became the first and only US president to were dismissed by their contemporaries thereby upsetting all global strategic have seriously contemplated abolishing and the political establishment of their calculations. And if that wasn’t enough, all the world’s nuclear weapons during times as not merely odd, but downward he also joked in a live radio studio that he his private talks with Soviet leader irresponsible and dangerous. was about to order the nuclear bombing Mikhail Gorbachev.

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He may not have been an intellectual, But, arguably, the person who really CREATING but he focused his mind on perspectives doomed the Iran nuclear pact is actual- intellectuals simply ignored. ly Mr Obama who, instead of using the OPPORTUNITIES Mr Trump has even less public service agreement as merely the beginning of a And then, there is North Korea, where experience than Mr Reagan and is, bigger effort to deal with Iran activities the President’s lack of prior familiarity therefore, much more of an unknown throughout the Middle East, presented with the intricacies of the crisis meant quantity. But that does not mean that the Iran deal as the crowning achieve- that he was able to challenge previous his approach to foreign policy is either ment of his administration, and proceed- received wisdom about how to deal with devoid of any logic or doomed to failure. ed to ignore the region’s other problems. Pyongyang. By not only ignoring history but also In ditching the nuclear agreement, For over a quarter of a century, suc- actually dismissing any historic expe- Mr Trump took three major calculated cessive US administrations worked on rience as irrelevant and worthless, Mr gambles: that Iran will continue to allow the principle that nothing must be done Trump’s foreign policy approaches often inspections of its nuclear facilities and to ramp up the confrontational language with North Korea, but also that nothing come across as both offensive and illiter- won’t restart its nuclear arms race, that should be done to provide the North Ko- ate. His claims that the US “got nothing” despite their protests the Europeans will rean state with international recognition for its investment on defending its allies ultimately swing behind the Americans and support a new approach to Iran until Pyongyang offered concessions. in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and which imposes much more onerous obli- Mr Trump turned that logic on its that America will no longer “stupidly gations on that country, and that the tight head, by first threatening to use force waste money” on its allies – as Mr Trump sanctions regime which operated against against Pyongyang, but also discarding put it in a recent tweet – are mere par- Iran in the past could be reinstated. any preconditions for meeting the North odies of reality, for the truth is that the Korean leadership for a summit. Again, US benefited hugely from its system of It was Mr Reagan, that arch- this approach was explained in his book, global alliances, both in strategic and cold warrior who supposedly where he commented laconically that straightforward economic terms. never read anything more “the worst of times often create the best opportunities to make good deals”. Still, it remains to be seen whether this profound than Readers’ often brutal Trump approach of berating Perhaps the forthcoming Singapore Digest, who also became the summit will fail. But there is something America’s allies to spend more on their first and only US president to own security is not merely his method of fairly ridiculous in the sight of the have seriously contemplated extracting further contributions from his same armchair strategists who, merely abolishing all the world’s partners, something all his predecessors a month ago criticised Mr Trump for in the White House have tried and failed nuclear weapons during attempting to start a nuclear war with North Korea, now warning the US to achieve. his private talks with Soviet President that he may “walk into a Mr Trump’s style of operation, as out- leader Mikhail Gorbachev. trap” by merely talking to North Korean lined in his Art Of The Deal book, is to aim He may not have been an intellectual, but he focused leader Kim Jong Un. “very high, and then I just keep pushing None of this is to suggest that Mr and pushing and pushing to get what I’m his mind on perspectives intellectuals simply ignored. Trump’s foreign policy is beyond after”. Crude? Yes. Effective? Yes. criticism. The US President is seriously All that can be said is that, far from Mr Trump has even less mistaken if he believes he can win trade withdrawing US troops from Europe, public service experience wars in multiple continents at the same Washington is increasing their numbers than Mr Reagan and is, time, and do so while simultaneously and spending more on European therefore, much more of attacking some of America’s closest defence infrastructure, much more than an unknown quantity. But partners. Far from being his rival, President Obama – that arch-priest of that does not mean that his Germany, for instance, could be multilateralism – ever envisaged. approach to foreign policy is America’s ally in the looming trade The same is happening with US either devoid of any logic or dispute between the US and China, commitments in Japan, while in South doomed to failure. largely because, like the Americans, Korea the Trump administration has Germany is a huge exporter of high- tech products to China, so alienating already ruled out any discussion about The US President seems to have German Chancellor Angela Merkel – as troop withdrawals as a precondition already been vindicated on the first gamble, may yet end up vindicated on President Trump did recently – is foolish. for the forthcoming talks with North Still, what to many diplomats may the second, but could well be losing the Korea or for any subsequent nuclear appear as a boorish Trump may end up third gamble by being unable to recreate deal. So, while the Trump rhetoric may producing better results that currently the old impregnable sanctions regime be inflammatory, the practice is not. assumed. Just as Mr Reagan succeeded against Iran. in doing a quarter of a century ago. CALCULATED But it is not obvious that upholding a And all by following a strategy GAMBLES deal that prevented Iran from acquiring advocated by Otto von Bismarck, the nuclear weapons while allowing it to wily 19th century creator of modern The same approach can be discerned rapidly increase its influence throughout Germany, who once remarked that in Mr Trump’s approach to the Middle the Middle East was a better prescription the most successful leader is not the East. The decision to abandon the Iran for regional stability. one who merely learns from his own nuclear deal is clearly risky, and it clearly And it is at least possible to argue that mistakes, but the one “who learns from infuriated the Europeans, who venerate a conventional military confrontation the mistakes of others”. the deal as the highest achievement of with Iran would have been inevitable their diplomacy. even if the nuclear deal remained in place. [email protected] 

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Nirmal Ghosh US Bureau Chief inWashington Denuclearisation models for N. Korea Leaders meeting in Singapore could consider agreeing on a step-by-step approach

outh Africa offers the closest model for the denuclea-ri- sation of North Korea – the core issue at the upcoming United States-North Korea Ssummit, which is due to take place in Singapore on June 12. South Africa denuclearised in 1989 because the security environment fundamentally changed, and there were deep domestic political changes. North Korea considers its nuclear programme as a crown jewel, and analysts believe there would first have to be a similar paradigm shift in its security environment to denuclearise the country. This may well be on the cards. “We are exploring various ways of clearing North Korea’s security concerns at the working level,” a senior South Korean presidential official said in May. “That includes an end to hostile relations, a mutual non-aggression pledge (and) launch of peace treaty talks to replace the current armistice.” The armistice in 1953 ended hostil- ST ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG ities in the Korean War. It would also help to have a change dismantlement. “We are nowhere near Former South African president F.W. of heart domestically in Pyongyang. But that,” he said. de Klerk, in an interview in the The that is not entirely evident yet; there is Other examples of denuclearisation Atlantic in September last year, recalled little possibility of regime change. were under particular circumstances. that “even if you were a supporter of “When North Korea agreed at the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, which having nuclear weapons, the rationale Panmunjom summit on the goal of had some of the former Soviet Union’s for that fell away”. complete denuclearisation, it was arsenal, agreed to let Russia take them Iran, under the 2015 Joint Compre- an aspiration,” Mr Mark Fitzpatrick, when the Soviet Union came apart in hensive Plan of Action, agreed to cuts executive director of the International 1991 because they could not afford them. and curbs, reducing or eliminating en- Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS)- In the case of South Africa, the 1989 riched uranium and slashing the number Americas and a former diplomat fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent of its gas centrifuges. This, coupled with specialising in nuclear non-proliferation, collapse of the Soviet Union triggered rigorous inspection and verification, told The Straits Times. the fundamental shift in the security blocked its path to a nuclear bomb. It was like the goal in the Non- environment that enabled the country But President Donald Trump has Proliferation Treaty, of universal nuclear to give up its weapons. taken the US out of the deal and

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reinstated sanctions against Teheran, on weapons and longer-range missiles. grounds that its missile development The second would be to cap the and support for proxy militias such as arsenal, terminating the production of Hamas and Hizbollah violate the spirit highly enriched uranium and plutonium. of the deal. Besides that, Iran could also The third phase would be to dismantle restart its nuclear weapons programme nuclear infrastructure, and the fourth in the foreseeable future. would be actual extrication of fissile Mr Trump’s recent decision sent materials and nuclear warheads out of mixed signals to North Korea – that the the country. Iran deal was not strong enough for the “An immediate and complete North US, and that the US President can tear Korean nuclear disarmament is extremely up an agreement. unlikely to result from the Singapore But the Libya model had no such summit,” he wrote. “US leaders will need mixed signals. a conceptual framework... Trump should Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi be armed with a framework before he gave up his rudimentary nuclear gets on his plane.” programme. In 2004, a ship transporting Mr Fitzpatrick said: “Differences on 500 tonnes of centrifuges and other gear the meaning of denuclearisation, over left Tripoli bound for the Oak Ridge verification requirements, the lack of National Laboratories in the US state preparation and Trump’s undisciplined of Tennessee – possibly the same place manner of acting all lend itself to things North Korean nuclear weapons and not working out.” material may be shipped to if a deal is But there was still a 20 per cent reached with Pyongyang. chance of a deal, he added. In less than eight years after he de- “It is quite possible that while retain- cided to denuclearise, Gaddafi was over- ing the goal of CVID (complete, verifia- thrown, and in 2011 beaten to death, ble and irreversible dismantlement), the with his body mutilated, by a rebel mob. United States could agree to a step-by- A view of the demolition of an entrance Dr Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow step movement towards it that would tunnel at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear in foreign policy at the Brookings Insti- involve some early dismantlement by test site on May 24, 2018. The photographs tution, has suggested that denucleari- North Korea, and the US making some show the ground situation from before the explosives were detonated (top) to the sation in North Korea can be largely concessions,” he said. “That is probably entrance being covered in earth after the reduced to four main steps, of which the only feasible way.” explosion (bottom). Some experts, however, questioned Pyongyang’s move. the first is already in effect – a freeze PHOTO: EPA-EFE on testing and production of nuclear [email protected] 

17 Asia Watch East Asia keeps a close watch North Korea’s neighbours jostle for a bigger say in changing regional dynamics

South Korean President Moon Jae In (right) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un after the summit in May, at the north side of the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarised Zone dividing the two Koreas. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

SOUTH KOREA Hoping for better ties

were warming up again. University’s international studies Chang May Pyongyang and Seoul agreed to hold professor Kim Joon Hyung told The Choon military talks and discuss the issue of Straits Times. South Korea family reunions, as well as open a joint In baduk – also known as Weiqi Correspondent liaison office early, in high-level talks, in China and Go in Japan – a player on June 1, strategises to gain territory or influence South Korean Unification Minister against an opponent, using tactics like hould South Korean Presi- Cho Myoung Gyon and North Korean divide and conquer. Experts describe it dent Moon Jae In mediate chief delegate Ri Son Gwon met on as a battle of wits, and one can win the between US President Don- South Korea’s side of the truce village game even after losing a lot of territory. ald Trump and North Korean of Panmunjom. “The problem is the US doesn’t leader Kim Jong Un? The meeting was a follow-up on really understand North Korea’s point SAnalysts differ on this. While some the Panmunjom Declaration, reached of view,” said Prof Kim. support the move, others felt it was not between their two leaders at a historic “Trump thinks of it as a chess game, necessary for him to make the trip to summit on April 27. where you go in to kill the king. But Singapore for the summit on June 12. Still, there are critics who are not baduk is not like that. It is give and Professor Park Ihn Hwi of Ewha swayed by the recent developments. take, getting the opponent to surrender. Womans University said Mr Moon has They see North Korea’s efforts to shut And it is not winner takes all; it could proven with his surprise second meeting down its nuclear sites as nothing more be 70-30 or 80-20. with Mr Kim in May, that he can indeed than a political show and warned against “You have got to give North Korea play the role of mediator between the unrealistic expectations. something. They are unilaterally US and North Korea. While the Americans play a zero- conceding a lot but never receiving While this was still being resolved, sum game of chess, the North Koreans anything in return,” said Prof Kim. at the time of going to print, there were play baduk – a more abstract, complex signs that ties between the two Koreas strategy game, Handong Global [email protected]  18 Asia Watch

JAPAN Abe hopes Trump will push Tokyo’s interests

over a volley of ballistic missiles that fell missiles (ICBMs) that endanger the US. into waters uncomfortably close to its He will also want Mr Trump to take shores, with two flying over Hokkaido, up the longstanding abductions issue, has high stakes going into the June 12 referring to the kidnapping of Japanese Walter Sim summit. citizens by North Korean agents in the Japan Correspondent Anxious that its priorities will be left 1970s and 1980s. This remains highly out, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sought emotive in Japan. apan, one of the most vocal pro- to be one of the last world leaders to The North insists the matter has been ponents of a “maximum pres- have Mr Trump’s ear in a bilateral “resolved” following visits by then sure” campaign on North Ko- summit five days before the Trump- Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to rea, has found itself sidelined Kim meet. Pyongyang in 2002 and 2004. after United States President He will want the US President Officially, Tokyo recognises 17 people JDonald Trump said he was reluctant to to ensure that Mr Kim commits to have been kidnapped by the North, use the phrase ahead of his June 12 disarming all its ballistic missiles – and though many more are suspected to meeting with leader Kim Jong Un. not just the intercontinental ballistic be victims. Five were returned in 2002. Both allies have pushed to cut off Pyongyang insists eight have died – revenue streams into Pyongyang until without providing concrete DNA proof the “complete, verifiable and irreversible – while the other four never set foot in dismantlement” of its ballistic missiles the country. and nuclear arsenal. But Tokyo, caught “The US-North Korea summit pre- flat-footed by Mr Trump’s announcement sents an important opportunity for in March that he will meet Mr Kim, has progress in the nuclear weapons and again had the rug pulled from beneath. ballistic missiles issues, and more impor- “North Korea will receive relief only tant than anything else, the abductions when it demonstrates verifiable and issue,” Mr Abe has said. irreversible steps to denuclearisation,” Depending on how the Trump-Kim US Secretary of State James Mattis summit goes, Tokyo is mulling over a meet- told the Shangri-La Dialogue, in what ing between Foreign Minister Taro Kono Japanese experts see as a sign the US and his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong was ready to loosen sanctions before US President Donald Trump greeting Ho in early August - also in Singapore. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the “complete” disarmament. Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, Japan, which last year lived in anxiety in April. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [email protected] 

CHINA Summit’s success in China’s interest

issue, with North Korea making radical wanting more economic assistance and a concessions and the United States in US demanding a tightening of sanctions turn promising to scale down its military against Pyongyang. Goh Sui Noi exercises, and reduce some of its military However, Professor Su Hao of the China Bureau Chief deployment, it would have a positive China Foreign Affairs University did not impact on China, he added. think that the summit would fail to come hina wants to see a suc- This is because it would mean up with a consensus between the US and cessful summit between US that the North Korean nuclear threat North Korea on denuclearisation. President Donald Trump and would be much reduced so that the US While Chinese analysts did not think North Korean leader Kim cannot deploy more military assets in China needed to be involved in the sum- Jong Un, whether it is sub- the region, which would be in China’s mit, there would be a certain amount of worry on the part of Beijing over what Cstantive or symbolic. security interests. is discussed. This is because a summit that goes Even if the two sides were to reach “China is not at the table. It does not only a symbolic agreement that does not well works in China’s interest of having want to take part in (the proceedings) touch on the core dispute but simply a stable and peaceful Korean peninsula but it would like to be able to see (what and North-east Asia, Chinese analysts preserves the status quo, with both sides goes on at the table) and prevent its have said. making commitments to end hostilities natural rights and interests from being But Beijing will be watching the and improve political relations, “that’s encroached upon,” said Professor Shi summit warily because its security fine too”, he said. It would serve to Yinhong of Renmin University. interests are at stake. de-escalate tensions in the Korean The anxiety stems from what Mr Zhao “Any positive outcome would be peninsula and reduce the risk of conflict describes as China’s deep distrust of the good news for China,” said North Korea on China’s doorstep. US and concerns about the deployment specialist Zhao Tong of the Carnegie- The nightmare scenario would be of increasingly advanced military assets Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy. a failure of the summit as this would in the region. If the two sides were to reach a mean an escalation of tensions and China comprehensive agreement on the nuclear being wedged between a North Korea [email protected]  19 ByInvitation

Bilahari Kausikan For The Straits Times Kim-Trump talks: New shift in power balance? As expectations ramp up for the coming summit between American and North Korean leaders, a veteran Singapore diplomat gives his take on what to expect

hat should one ex- pect from the com- ing meeting between the leaders of the United States and WNorth Korea? My short answer is not too much immediately but perhaps, in the long run, quite a lot. I hope my American friends do not take it amiss if I draw attention to the curious symmetry that I see between Mr Donald Trump and Mr Kim Jong Un. I hastily add that I do not of course in any way suggest any moral equivalence. But both leaders are unpredictable; both are given to extravagant statements that nevertheless conceal a logic that is comprehensible if we rid ourselves of prejudices. And both seem to have a sense of theatre. It may well be that they instinctively understand each other better than others do. At any rate, Mr Kim’s offer of ST ILLUSTRATION: MANUEL A FRANCISCO a meeting, after months of exchanging Trump administration. I told him that My North Korean acquaintance insults and fierce threats, was quickly if there was ever an opportunity for didn’t really need any advice from accepted by Mr Trump. the Democratic People’s Republic of me or anyone. He was only seeking Nothing is settled until it is settled, Korea (DPRK) to strike a deal with confirmation of what he already knew but it now looks like they will meet. the US, it would be during the Trump better than me. Mr Trump had in fact periodically administration because this president North Korea does not trust any major signalled his willingness to engage, even would not feel himself in any way bound power, hardly surprising given Korean while threatening to rain “fire and fury” by any precedent. Of course, North history. But it has long identified the on North Korea. We should have taken Korea would have to make some gesture US as the only real threat to regime him at his word. because even the most unconventional survival and has put great effort into Willingness to meet does not imply president would need political cover. understanding the US. It understands retreat or a change of course by either That gesture came dramatically when the US deeply and dispassionately. side. Threats and engagement are Mr Kim signalled his willingness to put In 2008, in the midst of the American different sides of the same coin. denuclearisation on the table. This is a primary elections, a senior North Korean About a year ago, a North Korean major concession by Pyongyang, not official dealing with the US gave me an acquaintance asked for my personal without some risk to Mr Kim. The North erudite and very accurate assessment views on what to expect from the new Korean media has not reported this offer. of how the primaries would play out.

20 ByInvitation

North Korea understands the US far Chinese academic recently told me that like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, but gave it better than the US understands North a North Korean official had told him up, all met no good end. Korea, and it understands the Trump that Pyongyang assumes that Japan I have never found a convincing administration without the emotion will be “decoupled” from the US. The rebuttal. In truth, in my mind I silently that clouds too many judgments of the implication is that Pyongyang assumes added Ukraine to the list because if Kiev administration. that Japan will eventually go nuclear had not given up the nuclear weapons it and is prepared for that. inherited from the Soviet Union, Crimea WHAT North Korea believes that if it can would probably still be part of Ukraine. deal with the US, it can deal with its Not too long ago, then director of DENUCLEARISATION allies. To Pyongyang, South Korea the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) CAN MEAN and Japan are relatively minor issues. Michael Pompeo (now Secretary of State) North Korea cannot be dissuaded said publicly that North Korea was within The Trump administration has been from acquiring the capability it seeks: “a handful of months” of being able to moving away from a failed policy of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic directly threaten the US. If Pyongyang denuclearisation to dealing with North missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the is really that close, why should it give Korea by deterrence. continental US. up? It is probably because North Korea Mr Trump uses extreme language, but it To Pyongyang, this is an existential is so close to the deterrent capability it nevertheless expresses the essential logic issue of regime survival. You cannot believes it needs, that it is now willing of deterrence: If you do something that dissuade a country from a course of to engage the US at the highest level. I find unacceptable, I will kill you, so do action it believes to be existential The US will never forswear the you really want to do it? At its core, the because any cost you can impose will military option. To do so would only logic of deterrence is as simple as that. by definition be lower than the cost of court trouble. But it is too late for pre- When Mr Kim responds with extreme proceeding. emptive action. North Korea already has language of his own, he is expressing the capability to retaliate devastatingly the essential logic of asymmetrical Paradoxically, it is precisely against South Korea and Japan. deterrence: Yes, you can kill me, but because North Korea Absent a clear and present danger to before I die, I will tear off your arm, so now cannot be stopped, the continental US – a nuclear-armed do you really want to kill me? At its core, that Mr Kim made his ICBM fuelled and ready for imminent the logic of asymmetrical deterrence is dramatic gesture of putting launch with reliable intelligence that it as simple as that. is targeted at the US, in which case all It is unrealistic to expect one summit denuclearisation on the table. To reduce the risk of restraints are off – pre-emptive action to settle decades of hostility. Neither in effect means that US allies will be side has any reason to trust the other. miscalculation, and to be stable, deterrence must be forced to pay the horrendous price for High-level talks do not ensure success. American security. This will irrevocably In 2000, then Secretary of State coupled with diplomatic destroy American credibility in East Madeleine Albright visited Pyongyang engagement. Therefore, Asia, and perhaps globally. and was greeted with fanfare. She met although engagement may Does Mr Trump understand this? I Mr Kim Jong Il. Nothing came of it. lead nowhere and this carries don’t know. A modest but realistic expectation risks for both sides, these are But I am absolutely certain that would be the Kim-Trump summit risks worth taking. Secretary of Defence James Mattis beginning a process of diplomatic understands. It is pretty much engagement. Nor can you persuade a country the conventional wisdom in the Based on previous processes such through negotiation that a course of Washington foreign policy and security as the Six-Party Talks, any process will action that it believes is existential is not establishment. And we should not forget drag on for a long time and may well in its interest. It is not impossible that a that new National Security Adviser lead nowhere. I very much doubt that peace treaty and a written guarantee of John Bolton is, for all his fierce talk, the outcome, if there is an outcome, no regime change by the US could be in fact a card-carrying member of that will be denuclearisation. Putting an outcome of a process of diplomatic establishment, albeit on the hard right. denuclearisation on the table is just a engagement. But without the means to If dissuasion, negotiation and pre- means of getting talks started. deter the US, a treaty and a guarantee emption are not practical options, that “Denuclearisation” has many are only pieces of paper. Why should leaves only deterrence. This was the meanings and degrees. It need not just North Korea trust the US? means by which all nuclear weapons mean North Korea denuclearising. It could I have often told North Korean states have managed their relationships also mean the US accepting a nuclear officials that military strength was a and which kept the “long peace” of the weapon-free zone in and around the necessary but insufficient condition Cold War. That is the direction I think the Korean Peninsula. That would degrade for security. Their conventional military US and North Korea are moving towards. the credibility of American extended capabilities were already more than Paradoxically, it is precisely because deterrence and start Japan and South adequate, and that rather than seek to North Korea now cannot be stopped, Korea on a path to acquiring independent acquire nuclear ICBMs, greater security that Mr Kim made his dramatic gesture nuclear deterrents of their own. was to be found by integrating the of putting denuclearisation on the table. Can the US guarantee that they will DPRK into the region and giving other To reduce the risk of miscalculation, not do so? How? countries an interest in its survival and and to be stable, deterrence must be There is ample scope for well-nigh prosperity. coupled with diplomatic engagement. endless debate on the meaning of the Their riposte was always that Therefore, although engagement may term. countries that had a nuclear weapon lead nowhere and this carries risks for There are some indications that programme but gave it up, like Libya, both sides, these are risks worth taking. Pyongyang may have already thought or countries that even pretended to This is not the same situation as through these complexities. A senior have a nuclear weapon programme, during the Six-Party Talks. North

21 ByInvitation

Korea’s ICBM and nuclear weapon Soviet Union with great skill, deriving It would be a serious mistake for the capabilities were then at a rudimentary maximum benefit from both while Trump administration to underestimate stage of development. Talking then was ceding autonomy to neither. the DPRK. Pyongyang is acting from a tactic of delay. China knows this – despite the strength, not weakness. Talking now is a means of establish- ostensible cordiality, Xinhua described We are only at the very beginning of ing stable deterrence; this meeting is the visit as “unofficial” – but has no the beginning of a long process.Many perhaps best understood as the begin- choice but to swallow it and support things could go catastrophically wrong. ning of a process of arms control, not Pyongyang. To do otherwise would be Even if they don’t, the trajectory will denuclearisation. Tactical delay and to further expose its secondary role in certainly not be a smooth or straight establishing stable deterrence are not what Pyongyang clearly regards as a line. Mr Trump has said he is prepared mutually exclusive motivations, particu- primarily DPRK-US affair. to walk away from talks. What else larly at the initial stages of engagement. When Mr Kim Jong Un came would he say before talks begin? To say At this stage, the process is the point. to power after his father’s sudden anything else, only undermines leverage. But Mr Kim’s surprise visit to Beijing death, Chinese and American officials But that he sent then CIA director to meet President Xi Jinping indicates expressed serious concerns about his Pompeo whom he reportedly trusts some degree of earnestness. This comes inexperience. I shared those concerns. rather than a more junior official to talk after years of rebuffing China and Mr Xi We were all wrong. to North Korea, indicates seriousness personally. Mr Kim had gone out of his Ever since Mr Kim drastically upped on his part. way to defy China and expose Beijing’s the tempo of nuclear and missile tests I cannot predict every twist and turn powerlessness to curb its only formal – he has conducted more tests than his of the process. But if the many perils can ally – it is no accident that Pyongyang father and grandfather combined – the be safely navigated, I think I can glimpse, has conducted nuclear tests during the initiative has been with him and not Mr as through a glass, darkly, the end point: Chinese New Year. Barack Obama or Mr Trump; not China’s The inherent logic of the situation will However, this is not reconciliation Mr Hu Jintao or Mr Xi; not South Korea’s eventually lead to a balance of mutually or a change of heart. If America is the Mr Moon Jae In or Park Geun Hye; and assured destruction between the US, main threat, my conclusion after many certainly not Japan’s Mr Shinzo Abe. China, the DPRK, Japan and South discussions with North Korean officials, Japan has been marginalised. So, too, Korea. And that will be far more stable is that China is not far behind America has Russia. They may have walk-on parts than the present situation. in terms of North Korean distrust. later, but not now. Singapore is not a player in this game. Mr Kim’s visit to Beijing and his Mr Kim has pursued his goals with It can only watch and keep its options outreach to South Korea is better ruthless determination. I think he has open as best it can. understood as creating manoeuvre had very good advice from his Foreign space ahead of the summit with Mr Ministry. When a country has lived with The writer is a former permanent Trump. During the Cold War, the DPRK its back to the wall for decades, your secretary at the Ministry of Foreign manoeuvred between China and the diplomats had better be very good. Affairs. 

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Leslie Lopez Regional Correspondent In Kuala Lumpur MALAYSIA VOTES 2018 How power changed hands in 24 hrs Barisan Nasional Datuk Johari Abdul Ghani, then The BN, and its predecessor, has Second Finance Minister and a key been the only governing alliance that was staring at defeat Najib lieutenant, was trounced in the Malaysia has known since independence soon after 10pm on Titiwangsa parliamentary seat, an ethnic in 1957 – with no history of handing Malay-dominated urban stronghold of over power to a different political party May 9, but a tense 24 Umno in the capital Kuala Lumpur that at the national level. hours would ensue it had been confident of winning. In the hours to follow, several of the In the Najib camp, panic was country’s largely ceremonial but highly before Malaysia’s spreading fast. “It is very close and the influential royal households would new Prime Minister people should only consider what the spurn Dr Mahathir as the opposition’s EC (Election Commission) declares as candidate for premiership. He would was sworn in at official (results),” one close adviser to also be forced to stare down threats of 10pm on May 10. This Mr Najib told ST, adding that “other a possible declaration of emergency, options” were being looked into. and the risk of cracks appearing in his is an account of the But the EC, which had been accused fragile coalition as Mr Najib claimed eventful day. of pandering to every whim of Umno that the election had produced a hung and the BN in the run-up to the Parliament. he drama that played out country’s most competitive polls, was In the end, the strong-willed leader on television screens, which surprisingly silent. would prevail and leave Malaysia’s ended with 92-year-old Tun Meanwhile, tension was building up King with little choice but to swear Dr Mahathir Mohamad be- in the opposition camp headed by Dr him in as the leader of Malaysia’s new ing sworn in as Malaysia’s Mahathir, ensconced in a large function government in a simple ceremony at the Tnew Prime Minister at around 10pm room of the recently completed Sheraton National Palace that began at 9.30pm on on May 10, made for gripping viewing. Hotel on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur. May 10, making him the world’s oldest But far more tense and suspenseful serving prime minister. was the theatre that unfolded behind UPPING THE ANTE Despite the electoral win, the offer to form the next government did not the scenes. The EC’s refusal to validate results come Dr Mahathir’s way easily. A post- It involved, The Straits Times has at several polling stations prompted Dr election drama – pieced together from learnt, the interpretation of a tricky Mahathir to raise the ante by declaring the accounts of several players directly constitutional clause, the offer of that the opposition had won. involved in it – played out behind the premiership being made to Parti Relying on a screenshot from a scenes, underscoring the complexity Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) chief Wan digital board at the highly classified of Malaysia’s multi-ethnic politics and Azizah Wan Ismail, and the intervention security operations room of the national the many challenges the country’s new of three top government officials who police, which kept real-time updates of government is set to face. went to see the King to persuade him the electoral counts, Dr Mahathir told Last night’s political impasse began that the post of prime minister should Malaysians before a nationally televised with rumours that the embattled be offered to Dr Mahathir. press conference just after midnight that Najib administration was considering All this while rumours swirled that his opposition alliance had secured suspending the electoral process and the palace was delaying the appointment more than a simple majority in the Give the declaring a state of emergency. of Dr Mahathir to the post – rumours 222-member Parliament to form the While talk of an emergency would that the King came out to deny. next government. later be proven unfounded, it was Malaysia’s handover of power, from The screenshot of the digital board, enough to force the country’s royal the Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance that which was spread over WhatsApp, households to intervene in the unfolding has ruled it since independence to the showed that his coalition had swept of political cliffhanger. Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, saw 127 parliamentary seats and 282 state many twists. assembly seats, with the BN trailing in By 10.30pm on May 9, the writing its wake with 86 seats and 193 seats, ROYALTY STEPS IN Gift was on the wall. Malaysia’s BN coalition respectively. The ST has learnt that the country’s government led by Datuk Seri Najib Dr Mahathir’s claims of victory urbane deputy king, Sultan Nazrin Razak was staring at a historic electoral effectively pushed Malaysia into Muizzuddin Shah of the Perak royal PERS PECT IVE defeat, with its bigwigs falling like uncharted waters. household, ordered the chief of police GET TO KNOW YOUR NEIGHBOURHOOD UP CLOSE. FIND OUT WHAT’S AT STAKE AND WHY IT MATTERS. tenpins.

Grab a copy at all good bookstores and www.stpressbooks.com.sg 23 Asia Watch

Power transition An excited supporter of Pakatan Harapan celebrating its victory. Wednesday, May 9 Thursday May 10 12.30am 2am BN Youth and Umno EC declares youth chief Khairy that PH has Jamaluddin thanks won Johor, 9pm voters. “Malaysians and retained Istana Negara have spoken. And Selangor. issues a press the people’s voice is statement 9pm sacred,” he says. strongly refuting Early Election any allegation indications Commission (EC) that the King show several denies any delayed the Barisan conspiracy in appointment of Nasional (BN) delaying results, 2.30am Dr Mahathir as Staff organising ballot boxes at a heavyweights says it is still trying 2.45pm PM. It says the vote-counting centre in Johor Baru. are headed for to tally votes. BN leaders Istana King strongly defeat in their Meanwhile, a gather at 11am Negara supports and seats in Johor, 10.30pm scheduled press Datuk Seri Defeated PM Najib (centre) makes his ›rst public appearance receives the respects the 5pm including Pakatan Harapan (PH) declares it has won a conference by BN Najib Razak’s after BN’s loss and holds a press conference where he stops of›cial democratic Polls for Malaysia’s 14th general incumbent simple majority of state assembly seats in chief Najib Razak is house in short of conceding defeat, saying because no party has a results of the process and the 9.30pm election close, with voter turnout ministers and Negeri Sembilan, enabling it to form the postponed to later Kuala simple majority, the King will determine who the next PM will election from wishes of his Dr Mahathir is sworn in as at around 76 per cent. veterans. state government. in the day. Lumpur. be. He also says he accepts the verdict of the people. the EC. subjects. Malaysia’s seventh prime minister

12am Noon

Noon 9.30pm 11.20pm 1.10am 3.30am Noon 1.38pm 5pm Police issue a statement on a viral Tun Dr Mahathir EC announces that PKR chairman Wan Azizah Dr Mahathir Istana Negara The King meets leaders of PH member parties – Datuk Seri Wan Azizah social media photo (left) depicting Mohamad claims PH BN has retained Wan Ismail invited to have an holds a press receives a letter of PKR, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia army personnel stationed in has “practically” Perlis and Pahang audience with the King, Sultan conference and from PH (PPBM), Mr Lim Guan Eng of Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Mr Putrajaya, saying it is untrue. clinched 112 seats, but lost Terengganu Muhammad V. says he has the members Mohamad Sabu of Amanah – at Istana Negara. After interviewing them and accuses BN of 12.05am to Parti Islam support of 135 supporting the and hearing their views, he decides to invite Dr Mahathir to form the a deliberate PH claims it has SeMalaysia (PAS) MPs, far appointment of next federal government and swear him in at night. attempt to delay won Kedah and Negeri surpassing the Dr Mahathir as the announcement Sembilan to PH. 112 needed for a PM. Supporters of results. “The PH retains Penang simple majority. cheering as likelihood is that and PAS retains He says PH has Dr Mahathir they would not be Kelantan. also asked the arrives at forming the King to have him the Istana government,” he sworn in, and Negara. Dr Mahathir holding up a hopes this can tells reporters. “We document with the signatures believe certain be done by 5pm. of alliance party leaders The King agrees meetings are being 3am naming him as the prime held. And we worry Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir Dr Mahathir declares victory for to grant him an minister during a news audience. what’s the intention (second from left) at a press PH (below), as it has achieved a conference in Petaling Jaya. of these meetings.” conference announcing Kedah’s simple majority of 112. He hopes Beside him is PKR chairman win. He won the Jerlun there will be a swearing-in Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. parliamentary seat and Jitra ceremony for the next prime state seat. minister soon. PHOTOS: KEVIN LIM, THE STAR, ARLINA ASHAD, ARIFFIN JAMAR, AFP, REUTERS, TRINNA LEONG, BERNAMA STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS

to maintain order and ensure that the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the By virtue of that provision in the outcome of the polls was respected. Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Constitution, Sultan Muhammad V Sultan Nazrin then conferred with Parti Amanah Negara – to contest under invited Datuk Seri Wan Azizah for his brother ruler, Sultan Muhammad V the banner of PKR. an audience at around 3am yesterday of the Kelantan royal household, who The electoral gambit to contest as a morning and, according to people close is also Malaysia’s current King, seeking single party clearly worked, with the to the situation, the King stated that his intervention in the unfolding crisis. alliance securing control of 104 seats in he could not accept Dr Mahathir’s Palace edicts were quickly issued to Parliament under the PKR ticket, and its nomination as the candidate for premier the EC not to hold back on declaring allies in Sabah and Sarawak capturing because he was not the leader of the the results and to jump-start the process another 17 to give it the simple majority dominant party in Parliament. for any handover of power. needed. At the time, unofficial results But the one-banner strategy WHO SHOULD BE revealed that the Mahathir-led PH also raised several prickly legal and coalition, comprising four parties, had constitutional issues. PM? won enough seats to make up a simple Malaysia’s Constitution states that Dr Wan Azizah was told that it would majority in Parliament. the leader from the party with the be more acceptable if she was presented But unlike the BN, which is officially most seats won in Parliament would as the candidate for the premiership. recognised as a coalition, the opposition be invited by the King to be appointed No one slept much that night, line-up has yet to be formally registered. as prime minister to pave the way for certainly not Dr Mahathir who told a That had led the candidates from the formation of a government that may press conference yesterday afternoon: three members of the opposition alliance require a working relationship with “I was very sleepy this morning. I got up – Dr Mahathir’s newly established other parties. late. Lots of people got up late.”

24 Asia Watch

Power transition An excited supporter of Pakatan Harapan celebrating its victory. Wednesday, May 9 Thursday May 10 12.30am 2am BN Youth and Umno EC declares youth chief Khairy that PH has Jamaluddin thanks won Johor, 9pm voters. “Malaysians and retained Istana Negara have spoken. And Selangor. issues a press the people’s voice is statement 9pm sacred,” he says. strongly refuting Early Election any allegation indications Commission (EC) that the King show several denies any delayed the Barisan conspiracy in appointment of Nasional (BN) delaying results, 2.30am Dr Mahathir as Staff organising ballot boxes at a heavyweights says it is still trying 2.45pm PM. It says the vote-counting centre in Johor Baru. are headed for to tally votes. BN leaders Istana King strongly defeat in their Meanwhile, a gather at 11am Negara supports and seats in Johor, 10.30pm scheduled press Datuk Seri Defeated PM Najib (centre) makes his ›rst public appearance receives the respects the 5pm including Pakatan Harapan (PH) declares it has won a conference by BN Najib Razak’s after BN’s loss and holds a press conference where he stops of›cial democratic Polls for Malaysia’s 14th general incumbent simple majority of state assembly seats in chief Najib Razak is house in short of conceding defeat, saying because no party has a results of the process and the 9.30pm election close, with voter turnout ministers and Negeri Sembilan, enabling it to form the postponed to later Kuala simple majority, the King will determine who the next PM will election from wishes of his Dr Mahathir is sworn in as at around 76 per cent. veterans. state government. in the day. Lumpur. be. He also says he accepts the verdict of the people. the EC. subjects. Malaysia’s seventh prime minister

12am Noon

Noon 9.30pm 11.20pm 1.10am 3.30am Noon 1.38pm 5pm Police issue a statement on a viral Tun Dr Mahathir EC announces that PKR chairman Wan Azizah Dr Mahathir Istana Negara The King meets leaders of PH member parties – Datuk Seri Wan Azizah social media photo (left) depicting Mohamad claims PH BN has retained Wan Ismail invited to have an holds a press receives a letter of PKR, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia army personnel stationed in has “practically” Perlis and Pahang audience with the King, Sultan conference and from PH (PPBM), Mr Lim Guan Eng of Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Mr Putrajaya, saying it is untrue. clinched 112 seats, but lost Terengganu Muhammad V. says he has the members Mohamad Sabu of Amanah – at Istana Negara. After interviewing them and accuses BN of 12.05am to Parti Islam support of 135 supporting the and hearing their views, he decides to invite Dr Mahathir to form the a deliberate PH claims it has SeMalaysia (PAS) MPs, far appointment of next federal government and swear him in at night. attempt to delay won Kedah and Negeri surpassing the Dr Mahathir as the announcement Sembilan to PH. 112 needed for a PM. Supporters of results. “The PH retains Penang simple majority. cheering as likelihood is that and PAS retains He says PH has Dr Mahathir they would not be Kelantan. also asked the arrives at forming the King to have him the Istana government,” he sworn in, and Negara. Dr Mahathir holding up a hopes this can tells reporters. “We document with the signatures believe certain be done by 5pm. of alliance party leaders The King agrees meetings are being 3am naming him as the prime held. And we worry Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir Dr Mahathir declares victory for to grant him an minister during a news audience. what’s the intention (second from left) at a press PH (below), as it has achieved a conference in Petaling Jaya. of these meetings.” conference announcing Kedah’s simple majority of 112. He hopes Beside him is PKR chairman win. He won the Jerlun there will be a swearing-in Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. parliamentary seat and Jitra ceremony for the next prime state seat. minister soon. PHOTOS: KEVIN LIM, THE STAR, ARLINA ASHAD, ARIFFIN JAMAR, AFP, REUTERS, TRINNA LEONG, BERNAMA STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS

The stalemate with the palace had The letter supporting his candidature After this meeting, the palace asked not been resolved when he spoke. It was handed over to the palace at to see Dr Mahathir along with other had deepened at around 10am, when 1.38pm. At 2.45pm, the EC handed coalition leaders at 5pm. the EC broke its silence and provided an the official results to the King. Dr Mahathir did not attend the updated set of results, declaring that no But there was one more card to play. meeting, but Dr Wan Azizah, Tan Sri single party had secured a clear majority To strengthen Dr Mahathir’s case, the Muhyiddin Yassin, Mr Lim Guan Eng to lead. PH leadership also persuaded three top and Mr Mohamad Sabu met the King Mr Najib latched on to the EC officials to meet the King and offer their and confirmed that they supported Dr announcement to declare that his BN reading of the situation. They comprised Mahathir as prime minister. accepted the verdict of the people but the Chief Secretary of Government, This sealed the deal and just before 10pm, Dr Mahathir was officially sworn the elections had produced a hung Tan Sri Ali Hamsa, who heads the civil in as Malaysia’s Prime Minister again. Parliament. This triggered speculation service, Inspector-General of Police But the long gap between the time that the BN would attempt to entice Fuzi Harun and a senior member of he staked his claim to the post and opposition candidates to cross over to the armed forces. his swearing-in drew an explanation its side and bolster its numbers. In their audience with Sultan from the palace, which said: “Istana Against this uncertain backdrop, Dr Muhammad V at around 3pm yesterday, Negara strongly refutes any allegation Mahathir appeared shortly afterwards, in the three top government officials that... Sultan Muhammad V delayed a nationally televised press conference, impressed upon the King that any the appointment of Tun Dr Mahathir to declare that all the elected candidates delay in the swearing-in of Dr Mahathir as Prime Minister.” from the opposition coalition had would have potential repercussions for The long drama drew to a close. unanimously agreed to nominate him the national security situation, people as their prime ministerial candidate. close to the matter said. [email protected] 

25 Asia Watch

Nur Asyiqin Mohamad Salleh

Rosmah’s ‘Trying Times’

ut came those iconic or- ange boxes housing Hermes bags, balanced in precar- ious stacks on trolleys bound for the back of po- Olice trucks. There were 284 of them – enough to fill five trucks – along with 72 bags stuffed with jewellery, cash and branded watches. As gun-toting security officers stood guard, a late-night parade of stunning excess played out on May 17 at the posh condominium owned by the family of embattled former premier Najib Razak in the Bukit Bintang shopping district. It laid bare the lavish life he led with his wife Rosmah Mansor, whom the Australian media in 2012 mockingly dubbed “the first lady of shopping” after her alleged A$100,000 (S$102,000) spree at a Sydney boutique during a private holiday. And as police looking into graft allegations combed properties linked Boxes containing a large number of luxury Wife of ex-PM handbags as well as bags filled with jewellery, cash, watches and other valuables Najib comes were carted away during police raids on former Malaysian prime minister Najib under renewed Razak’s home and condo units linked to his scrutiny as family. ST PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR

raids uncover to the couple, they unearthed cash, high- haul of luxury end watches and a torrent of bags, bags, and even more bags – some of them goods stashed, bizarrely, in the couple’s prayer room, police documents show. Madam Rosmah’s fondness for designer handbags, particularly the Madam Rosmah Hermes Birkin which commands a Mansor showing price of anywhere between US$12,000 her ink-stained (S$16,000) and US$300,000, has long finger after voting in Malaysia’s been a subject of national ridicule. general election Whispers of her exorbitant purchases in Pekan, Pahang, – among them a rumoured US$200,000 on May 9. PHOTO: REUTERS diamond-encrusted Birkin bag and RM3 million (S$1 million) worth of floral decorations for her daughter’s wedding, both claims of which she has denied – made her an easy target for the opposition, which cast Datuk Seri Najib and his allies as a coalition of money-hungry elites. And in the sharply dressed Madam Rosmah, with her gravity-defying RM1,200 bouffant and a penchant for gaffes that cast her as painfully out of touch with the people, they found the perfect example.

26 Asia Watch

married to for 11 years and with whom “We must stop waiting for opportu- HEADMASTER’S he had three children. nities to fall into our laps,” she said at DAUGHTER Madam Rosmah was a divorcee too, a 2009 forum. “We must seize oppor- For many years now, she has lived in with two children from her previous tunities with our own hard work, ideas luxury, but Madam Rosmah, 66, came marriage to Mr Abdul Aziz Nong Chik, and drive.” from modest beginnings. said to be a former Petronas employee. But her constant presence and out- The only child of a Malay school In interviews, Madam Rosmah has spoken nature raised hackles. headmaster and his teacher wife, she gushed about marrying Mr Najib, whom Mr Najib, in a barbed defence of grew up in the small town of Kuala Pilah she described as her best friend and his wife, said in 2005: “People are just in Negeri Sembilan. whom she affectionately calls “Datuk”. not used to politicians having wives Studies came first. They have two children together – with intellect. She has been very, very When she was just four years old, she Nooryana Najwa, 30, and Norashman, 28. supportive of me.” was sent to school, studying with pupils Madam Rosmah left her job to raise He added: “She is highly qualified, nearly twice her age. their children, but as Mr Najib, now she has a master’s degree, and she When at 12 she decided to skip a 64, rose through the ranks, becoming speaks her mind. Some people find that tuition class to catch a movie, she was deputy prime minister in 2004, she too hard to take.” almost thrown out of the house. would find herself caught in the glare. Criticism only grew after he was made Her father, she recalled in her 2013 The housewife who played badminton prime minister in 2009. A common re- biography, told her: “Study well, so that five days a week and had a fondness frain among the opposition was that it you can be an officer when you grow up. for karaoke and Shah Rukh Khan was Madam Rosmah calling the shots. “Be a somebody and don’t trouble films became her husband’s shadow, They claimed she wielded undue in- other people.” accompanying him to events and on fluence on her husband’s administration, She would make it to the Tunku visits abroad. but she insisted otherwise. Kurshiah College, a prestigious all-girls’ On an official trip to Singapore soon “I’m not involved in politics,” she boarding school in Negeri Sembilan, after her husband was made deputy, she said in 2011. “I’m not involved with where her attempts to learn the piano left an impression with her quick wit. the policies of the government – that’s were rebuked by her unimpressed Told by a guide at the Asian Civi- being taken care of by the Cabinet, the parents, who told her the music industry lisations Museum that the Minangka- prime minister, deputy prime minister.” would be a dead end for her. bau society in Indonesia is matriarchal, Instead, she ended up doing a degree with power in the hands of women, she “WHAT’S WRONG in sociology and anthropology at the quipped: “Well, that’s the way things WITH THAT?” University of Malaya, and found a job should be.” as a loan officer at Agricultural Bank Now, her offbeat statement seems an Even as she battled criticism of her – now Agrobank – where she rubbed apt foreshadowing for the storm that apparent ambitions, fresh scandals shoulders with farmers as they toiled would follow. emerged. in their fields. Madam Rosmah was a visible part of In 2008, prominent blogger Raja She then headed for the United her husband’s political life, championing Petra Kamarudin made the stunning allegation that Madam Rosmah was States to pursue a master’s degree in women’s and children’s issues. involved in the murder two years sociology and agriculture at Louisiana She founded the Permata programme earlier of Mongolian model Shaariibuu State University. for children, and urged women to take Altantuya, who was having an affair Madam Rosmah graduated in 1978 on leadership roles. with a confidant of Mr Najib’s. and returned to Malaysia. Ms Altantuya, 28, was shot, and her It was there in the mid-1980s that body then blown up using military-grade she met Mr Najib, who was two years explosives in a jungle outside Kuala her junior, when she was a business Lumpur. development manager at a property Mr Raja Petra claimed he had reliable company and he was the Menteri Besar information that Madam Rosmah was of Pahang. present at the grisly murder. He was They would tie the knot in 1987. By charged with sedition and defamation then, Mr Najib had become the minister and in 2011, he came out to distance of culture, youth, and sports – a rising himself from his previous claim, political star favoured by then Prime saying the information had come from Minister Mahathir Mohamad. opposition figures. Politics ran in Mr Najib’s family. Meanwhile, rumours of Madam Ros- His father Tun Abdul Razak Hussein mah’s extravagance continued to make was Malaysia’s well-respected second the rounds. Stories of her whirlwind prime minister until his death in 1976, shopping trips to Rome and Australia and his uncle was Tun Hussein Onn, the on government jets, stays in lavish pent- third prime minister. houses, staggering jewellery collection, Mr Najib entered the political arena and Hermes spending sprees dogged her. young. He was elected to Parliament at She was accused of purchasing a 23 to replace his father in the Pahang- RM24 million diamond ring from Jacob based Pekan seat. & Co jewellers in New York, after a blog He married Madam Rosmah the year posted photos of a Customs Department Madam Rosmah met Mr Najib in the mid- he divorced his first wife, Tengku Puteri 1980s and they tied the knot in 1987. computer screen showing that the ring Zainah Tengku Eskandar, whom he was PHOTO: SIN CHEW DAILY had been bought under her name.

27 Asia Watch

allies – including his wife – had helped themselves to public funds might have been a crucial tipping point for voters this election. Her husband, who has reportedly been spotted with luxury watches, among them a RM165,000 Hublot Big Bang King Power “Red Devil’’ Manchester United limited edition, was also derided for his lavish tastes. A 2016 article in The Wall Street Journal citing Malaysian investigation documents alleged that Mr Najib spent millions of dollars on luxury goods from bank accounts to which 1MDB funds were transferred. It cited, among other things, expenses at an exotic car dealership in Kuala Lumpur in 2011. At this year’s general election, which saw massive angst over rising costs Madam Rosmah, seen with Mr Najib, waving Malaysia’s national flag during a rally to of living, Mr Najib was emphatically celebrate the country's 55th Independence Day at Bukit Jalil Stadium, some 20km south of Kuala Lumpur, on Aug 31, 2012. denied his return to power. Madam Rosmah, usually a fixture She slammed this as yet more slander embarrassing for the rakyat when other at his side as her husband emerged against her, and the jeweller would later countries tease the PM’s wife for being victorious in past elections, has not say the ring – which was returned – was unkempt.” been seen since May 9. A photo of the couple dozing in their flown to Malaysia at the request of her These comments struck some as tone- living room – Madam Rosmah, face daughter’s future mother-in-law, who deaf. Despite her attempts at dialogue bereft of make-up, garbed in a kaftan wanted to view it. and denial, she would never quite and curled up in an ornate chair with Just last year, a United States probe salvage her reputation. gold trimming – as police searched into 1MDB claimed US$27.3 million She drew scorn in 2015 when she the house into the wee hours of the of public funds had gone into a rare lamented the rising cost of housecalls morning, has been making the rounds. pink diamond necklace, given to Madam from hairdressers and tailors. It has drawn sympathy among some, Rosmah by businessman Low Taek Jho Dyeing her hair now set her back with one supporter fuming to online RM1,200, while tailored dresses cost – better known as Jho Low – who is said portal Malaysiakini: “This is uncalled to have had a hand in developing the RM500, she told the crowd at an event for.” But the dominant reaction has been sovereign wealth fund. to discuss the introduction of a new one of anger and scorn, especially as She rubbished this claim. consumer tax. searches on the cushy residences linked Her appearance – impeccably “We have to make beautiful clothes to the couple turned up the staggering coiffed, draped in jewellery, often with to attend functions, but the prices haul of luxury goods. a high-end bag in the crook of her arm are way too high. For those who can “Imelda’s shoes are nothing com- – set tongues wagging, with netizens afford it, it’s all right. But what about pared with Rosmah’s Birkins,” said a scrutinising anything from her latest housewives like us, with no income?” netizen. accessory to her changing face. she asked. Yesterday, she broke her silence for the Stung, she attempted in her 2013 It provoked the ire of Malaysians first time since the raids began. Through biography, co-written by a theatre struggling with rising costs and stagnant her lawyer, she hit out at how the raids producer and veteran journalist, to quell incomes. In 2016, half of working making the headlines had resulted in some rumours and shed more light on Malaysians took home less than her family being vilified in a trial by the her life as the prime minister’s wife. RM1,703 a month. media, despite neither of them having It is common to receive expensive Even her charity work for children been charged with any crime. jewellery and gifts while on official duty, under her Permata programme – which She called on the authorities to plug she said in the Malay-language book. the opposition charged was a vehicle leaks about their investigation, saying “When someone gives us something, for Madam Rosmah to dip into public that “enforcement agencies should not it is not nice to reject it,” she said. “This funds – did not escape unscathed. be feeding social media trolls”. said, there is no reason for me to go She had in 2013 suggested a She added: “Despite the overwhelm- around announcing that I have been programme distributing fresh bread ingly trying times afflicted upon us, we presented watches, designer bags and and pastries be expanded to Permata have, and will continue to facilitate any the rest. That’s just showing off.” centres nationwide. inquiry, and avail ourselves to any re- She also bought jewellery and design- “Make sure the bread and the questing authorities.” er clothes with her own money, she add- croissants reach the children because I Just as she was during his rise to ed, asking: “What’s wrong with that?” don’t think our children from the Permata power, she is still by Mr Najib’s side, “As a woman and wife of a leader, centres have tasted croissants,” she said, this time – as their residences are gutted I have to look presentable, neat and a pronouncement that was mocked. of valuables and her Birkin bags carted upkeep my appearance. I don’t want And as the scandals surrounding away – as a partner in his fall from grace. to look unkempt because if I do, I will debt-ridden 1MDB grew, anger over be criticised,” she said. “It would be allegations that Mr Najib and his [email protected] 

28 Lunch with Sumiko

Sumiko Tan Executive Editor

At 92, Malaysia’s Mahathir’s former prime minister is fighting the unfinished strangest electoral business battle of his life

un Dr Mahathir Mohamad food-loving Singaporeans eats very little. will find hard to stomach – He has ordered spaghetti stop eating once something beef bolognese but is tastes delicious. full after several small “Once you are fat, to Tmouthfuls. “This is too much for me,” become thin again is very he murmurs 30 minutes into our meal, difficult. This is the advice from moving the plate, still heaped with my mother,” he says. “She told pasta, to one side. me that when the food is nice, He barely touches his decaf latte, stop. too. The swirly heart-shaped “When I studied medicine, I pattern on the foam is realised how good that advice undisturbed. was. When you overeat, the We’re at The Loaf, a stomach expands, and if you chain of bakery-cafes do that too often, it becomes he owns. very big. His people have “And if you don’t eat enough, chosen the branch in you feel hungry. So you eat a lot. Cyberjaya to meet. And then it keeps on growing.” The cafe is on the He has managed to train ground floor of a shopping himself to eat very little. “I’m centre and surrounded by very disciplined in many ways. shops selling socks, sports At first it was very difficult, but gear and brooches imported after some time it was easy. You from South Korea. learn to curb your feelings.” It feels surreal to be meeting In fact, he is turned off by the Malaysia’s longest-serving prime sight of a paunch. “That is one minister in such a mundane thing that I don’t like to see. setting. Every time I meet a fat man, I A waiter had told me earlier that poke a finger and tell him, ‘Cut “Tun”, which is how most people down on your food.’” address him, has bread, tomato I ask about rumours that he has had slices and sugarless lemonade stem cell or placenta treatments. He whenever he visits. I’m expecting laughs. He has heard those stories. him to order this spartan combination “No. No injections of any kind. No but he opts for spaghetti instead. stem cells. Nothing. Nothing.” “I don’t eat much,” he says when I tell him I’ve heard he looks have been a source T 92 turning 93 in July, Dr eats simply. “Usually, every of marvel and speculation Mahathir is fighting what item on the menu I divide by for years. must surely be the final two, share with somebody else.” Up close, I am struck by how clear his electoral battle of his life. Breakfast for him is a slice of bread. eyes are, how much hair he still has and It is also his strangest. Lunch is whatever the cook at home how full his face is. When he walks, his AIn 1981 when he was 56, the Kedah- prepares. He has two spoonfuls of rice posture is straight and his gait is steady. born, Singapore-trained medical doctor at night. He is genial, polite and very soft- became Malaysia’s fourth prime “I haven’t had to change my spoken, but you sense nothing escapes minister. He first became an Umno measurements for 31 years. Same his eagle eyes. His answers are sharp Member of Parliament in 1964. trousers I can still wear.” and to the point. He was PM for 22 years and is It’s not just his measurements that He is often asked the secret to credited with transforming Malaysia have remained constant. His youthful staying young. His answer is something into a modern, thriving economy,

29 Lunch with Sumiko

pushing more Malays to be professionals and championing Asian values. But he has detractors who say he weakened the judiciary, used the Internal Security Act too freely, promoted cronyism and did not do enough to stop corruption in government. His tenure was also marked by the sensational case of Anwar Ibrahim, his deputy prime minister who was jailed for sodomy. When he retired in 2003, Dr Mahathir didn’t quite go gently into the night. He fell out with his chosen successor Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and opposition leader Wan Azizah look Abdullah Badawi and backed Datuk Seri on as a video clip of Anwar Ibrahim is played during a rally near Kuala Lumpur. Dr Mahathir Najib Razak, who became PM in 2009. has said he will pass the premiership to Anwar, who will be released from jail in June, after In 2015, he became a fierce critic two years at most. PHOTO: REUTERS of Mr Najib after the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) saga the past. We have to learn to forget it, PM has intimidated those who support broke. He quit Umno and formed the although off and on it crops up. But the opposition. Malaysian United Indigenous Party generally he has accepted.” On his part, Mr Najib has come out (PPBM) to fight Mr Najib. On his part, he says of Anwar: “I strongly to defend Malaysia’s debt. PPBM is a member of the opposition don’t care about the past, about what He has highlighted positive reports alliance called Pakatan Harapan (PH). he did and all that. by credit rating agencies, and how It includes the Parti Keadilan Rakyat “To me, it is nothing compared with other developed countries have higher (PKR) party of Anwar, who is back what Najib is doing. Both of us agree debt-to-gross domestic product levels in jail on sodomy charges, and the that what Najib is doing is so terrible compared with Malaysia’s 51 per cent. Democratic Action Party (DAP), whom that we need to forget our past.” He has also accused PH of Dr Mahathir once railed against as He also highlights, as he has done irresponsible promises in its recently Chinese chauvinists. before, that Anwar is in jail this time released election manifesto. PH named him chairman of the “not because of me, he was put there Abolishing highway tolls and the alliance. In January, it said he would by Najib”. goods and services tax (GST) will see be its prime ministerial candidate He describes the opposition as being the country incur a debt of RM383 should the opposition win the upcoming “very” united and says he has been billion (S$128.6 billion). election. surprised by how they have accepted Dr Mahathir appears to share some Dr Mahathir has said he will pass him, especially its leaders. common ground with Mr Najib on this, the premiership to Anwar, who will be “It was unthinkable at one time but I saying he has told his “very socialistic” released from jail in June, after two think they are quite sincere because we coalition partners that they can’t just years at most. have the same goal – get rid of Najib.” “give things to people”. The turn of events has been nothing That said, his biggest challenge has But he maintains the GST is not short of bizarre. been explaining to his Umno base why necessary. “We never depended on Does it feel weird to be in the he has joined forces with the opposition the GST before and yet the country opposition, I ask. parties. developed very well, and we didn’t even “Yes, it’s very weird,” he says. “The “They couldn’t understand. For borrow money.” very people who used to call me names example, I used to condemn DAP and When I ask how he would describe – and I used to call them names – now now I am together with DAP... his feelings towards Mr Najib, his reply they are working with me.” And, he “I explain, but die-hard Umno is “I am terribly disappointed”. says, they chose him to be their leader. followers just cannot accept DAP.” He adds that he owes his own rise “It is a strange kind of acceptance, you Some friends now avoid him for fear in Umno and becoming prime minister see, but I got to get on well with them.” of repercussions in their businesses. to Mr Najib’s late father, Malaysia’s He shares that Anwar and his family While he understands where they are second prime minister, Tun Abdul Razak took a long time before they agreed to coming from, he is disappointed they Hussein. work with him. are “so easily frightened”. “I was very grateful to the father, and “It was very difficult for him first The opposition has other challenges, the father left a legacy which we are to accept me as the chairman of the like funding, and whether PH will be proud of because he concentrated on opposition, and then when my name allowed to be formally registered in developing the rural areas... So I thought was also put up for prime minister. It time for the election. Otherwise, the the son would be like that, but I was took a long time for him to decide, but opposition will have to contest under grossly disappointed.” eventually he realised, and people told individual party flags which he thinks Up to the last general election in him, there’s no way you can put anybody could lead to confusion. 2013, he supported Mr Najib. else and win over Malay support.” He brings up Mr Najib’s name no “I campaigned for him. I even went Pragmatism, I suppose, rules in fewer than 20 times during the course of on the stage to say that your choice is politics, even if it means gritting your our 90-minute meal. He seems genuinely between Anwar and Najib. Do you like teeth and sleeping with former enemies. convinced that the way the government Anwar? So I campaigned hard for him He puts a smooth – some might say has run up debt to cover its spending and regained the state of Kedah for him. unbelievable – gloss on things. will ruin Malaysia and make it “become But when I hear about the 1MDB, that “Whatever difference we have is like Greece”. He also complains that the is something I cannot accept.”

30 Lunch with Sumiko

IS schedule in the run-up doing. Is power important to you, I ask. “I’m angry because of the things he to the election has been “Power is important because with does, which I feel is destroying this punishing. it, you can do a lot of things,” he says. country.” He travels up and “When I was prime minister, I knew His wife, Dr Siti Hasmah Mohd down the country for I had power. There were things that Ali, 91, is often by his side. He says Hevents, continues to blog and is active nobody could do and they came to me. they quarrelled quite a lot in their on Facebook. He writes out his posts I said, ‘Well, this is a good thing, you early days. But being a person who and they are uploaded for him. Before can do it.’ “doesn’t succumb to emotion much”, he our lunch, he had filmed a Facebook “So that is what power is meant for. evaluated the situation and concluded Live session where he gave a policy talk Not to enrich yourself. Not to bully that tolerance was key to a happy on education. people and that kind of thing. I don’t marriage. “In the end, I had to put up Most of his night events start late. think that was right.” with the things that she does, as much “Malay audience, they come out His critics, I think, would have a view as she has to accept my way of doing after 9pm. on this. things.” “They always make me the last Does he have any regrets of that I wonder who his closest friends speaker, which means sometimes I’ll period when he had that power? He are. He says there is “a person who is be speaking at about 12.” says that working with the opposition quite unknown, not a politician, but In February, he was hospitalised for a has opened his eyes to their “grouses” he gives me a lot of information about chest infection. This has been practically about him. what’s happening on the ground”. He cured, but he has a chronic cough which is comfortable with him and treats him stems from a bout of pneumonia in WHAT POWER like a confidant. 1999. MEANS TO HIM Is he an old friend? “Well, he’s not so He believes he has the most support Power is important because old,” he says, amused at the question. from Malaysians who had lived through with it, you can do a lot of “I don’t find people my age anymore the 1980s and 1990s when he was things. When I was prime for friends, you see.” PM and who saw how the country minister, I knew I had power. Singapore does not appear to figure progressed. “They knew what happened. much in his mind and he doesn’t They can make comparisons.” There were things that mention it until I raise it. As to where he will contest, he claims nobody could do and they He talks with fondness about his he has not made up his mind, although came to me. I said, ‘Well, classmates from the King Edward VII pundits say it will likely be in Langkawi. this is a good thing, you can College of Medicine, but also remembers Wherever he says he will contest, do it.’ So that is what power how there was a distance then between “Najib comes along with a lot of gifts”, is meant for. Not to enrich big-city Singapore and kampung-bred he laughs. “People are grateful to me. yourself. Not to bully people students from Malaysia. They say because you come here, then and that kind of thing. He also hasn’t forgotten how, as we are getting all this.” a student taking a taxi to the female More seriously, his decision will be “There were occasions when I was hostel, the driver drove him to the based on winning. perhaps a bit harsh on people, and I kitchen there because he was Malay. “I cannot afford to lose. I will have could have asserted more authority “Some things hurt me, but that to choose the best constituency where over the police, for example. But I just doesn’t mean that I hold any grudge I could win.” couldn’t insist on things.” against Singapore. But I have to maintain He sees Johor as the main He repeats the well-used example of Malaysia’s position. Of course Singapore battleground because it is an important how he had told the police chief not to has done extremely well. And I believe Umno stronghold. The opposition will use handcuffs when arresting Anwar. that we can do just as well. We have the have difficulty breaking into that state, “But they had their SOP, and that meant same kind of people.” he admits. wearing balaclava and breaking doors We’ve come to the end of the meal. He rates the opposition’s chances as and holding guns. It gave me a very Shannon Teoh, The Straits Times’ “50-50”. Most observers say it is much bad image... The public thinks I asked Malaysia bureau chief who was also at less than that, given PH’s antagonistic them to do those things. But it was not the lunch, and I thank him for his time. factions and the high possibility of my decision.’’ He is gracious and thanks us, too. three-cornered fights. He spends the next 15 minutes with An online poll in December found ITH so much going the crowd outside. that Mr Najib’s integrity and the 1MDB on in this late stage He wears a bemused smile as they scandal – issues Dr Mahathir has been of his life, I am curi- jostle to pose for photos with him. banging on about – were the least of the ous what makes him Some, including a TV personality respondents’ concerns, at 3 per cent and happy. His answer passing by, pledge their support in the 2 per cent respectively. Wsurprises me. “It is when I am among election. You sense he is realistic about the friends who have the same views as His energy doesn’t flag. Over the next opposition’s chances. “If we fail, well, myself. I feel happy then.” few days, I see on his Facebook page we have to accept it,” he says. “But I’ll His family, of course, also gives him that he has kept up a packed schedule. be very sad indeed.” happiness, he says. Dr Mahathir is geared up for battle If the people cannot replace Mr Najib, He has seven children and 18 and as he says at lunch: “For the next “they must learn that they should care grandchildren. 100 days, they have already drawn up for the country more than just personal Might his anger with Mr Najib be my programme.” gains”. something that is eating away at him? It I wonder if the desire for power again can’t be healthy, I think to myself. “No, [email protected]  is the motivation behind what he is it’s not that kind of anger,” he corrects. Twitter @STsumikotan 31 Asia Watch

Vikram Khanna Associate Editor Malaysia’s GST a victim of populist politics The new Malaysian government’s decision to bring GST down to zero from June 1 is an easy decision to make – but making up for its lost revenue will be tough

oil-related revenues, which accounted for 40 per cent of total revenues in 2009. But oil prices have been extremely volatile, going from US$145 a barrel in July 2008 to US$30 by the end of that year, then back to more than US$100 in October 2010 and down again to US$32 in early 2016. If Malaysia is to build a sustainable fiscal position and maintain public spending at reasonable levels, it needs to diversify its sources of revenue. Moreover, Malaysia’s direct tax base is narrow. Less than 15 per cent of working-age Malaysians pay income tax. Malaysia has about 1.7 million undocumented foreign workers who also pay no tax, as well as some 350,000 residents who commute to Singapore to work. Malaysia set its GST at 6 per cent, which is one of the lowest rates in the n May 16, Malaysia’s Fi- had it. Although long delayed – Malaysia world and the second lowest in Asean, nance Ministry announced had originally planned to introduce after Myanmar’s. To protect the poor, that the country’s goods the tax in 2011, but was thwarted by it also exempted or zero-rated many and services tax (GST) will political resistance – it was a pragmatic essentials, including basic food items, be reduced from 6 per cent and far-sighted move. medicine, public transport, the cheapest Oto zero from June 1. This decision, driven The GST (also known as the value- grade of petrol and diesel. more by populist politics than by sound added tax or VAT) has long been Despite its incomplete coverage, the economics, could have serious implica- regarded by economists as the most GST has worked well for Malaysia. In tions for Malaysia’s fiscal position and comprehensive, transparent, fair and 2017, it accounted for about 18 per economic future. It will also limit the efficient form of consumption tax. In cent of revenue or 3 per cent of gross ability of the new Pakatan Harapan gov- the case of Malaysia, the International domestic product (GDP), compared ernment to push ahead with what seems Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank with 8 per cent of revenue or 1.6 per otherwise a progressive and inclusive and the developed nations’ group cent of GDP delivered by the sales and agenda. Organisation for Economic Cooperation service tax (SST) in 2014, the last year Malaysia was a late adopter of the and Development endorsed the case of its operation. It had been in force GST, which came into force in the for the GST. since the 1970s. country only in April 2015, by which The case was compelling. Malaysia has Malaysia’s government has indicated time more than 160 countries already traditionally been heavily dependent on that it wants to revert to the SST, but has

32 Asia Watch not said when it will do so. Whenever it COSTS OF ABOLITION consumer. So there will be many goods is, the result will be a loss of revenue to and services for which the consumer will the tune of RM25 billion (S$8.5 billion) The costs to Malaysia from the have to pay more, not less, with the SST to RM30 billion per year. This is because abolition of GST will not be confined compared with the GST. the GST is far superior at generating to the revenue losses arising each year revenue than the archaic SST. from the difference in the tax yield from OPTICAL ILLUSION the GST compared with the SST. The losses will also extend to the One reason for the perception that BETTER THAN SST forgone projects that would have been the GST raises living costs is an optical There are two main reasons for this. financed by the higher revenues that illusion: GST is transparent and clearly First, the GST is more broad-based, the GST generated, and which Malaysia stated in invoices, whereas the SST being levied on value-added at multiple would no longer be able to afford. These is hidden to consumers. While they stages of the supply chain. The more would include schools, hospitals, roads actually pay it, many of them don’t narrowly based sales tax is levied at and other public services as well as realise they are doing so. a single stage, while the service tax is programmes to subsidise the poor, such Another reason – and here, charged at the point of sale of a few as the 1Malaysia People’s Shop (KR1M), consumers’ complaints are justified – is selected services. a chain of stores selling necessities at that some unscrupulous businesses raised The GST is also more efficient, with prices 30 to 50 per cent lower than prices when the GST was introduced by fewer leakages. It is self-policing because regular stores. more than their additional tax liability, it enables businesses to claim input Malaysia might also have to raise blaming the GST for the increase. credits, which will require compliance user charges for its MRT and LRT transit Malaysia had put in place a Price along the entire chain of businesses to rail systems, which have been kept low Control and Anti-Profiteering Act which it applies, and which can be easily thanks partly to the additional revenue before it introduced the GST, which was cross-checked by the tax authorities. The from the GST. aimed at preventing such abuses. Under the Act, consumers had the right to SST can be more easily evaded – for While today’s relatively high example, by companies under-declaring complain about unjustified price hikes, their sales. oil prices, at close to US$80 but many didn’t know about the Act, So far the Malaysian government has per barrel, will provide which was also not properly enforced. not come up with any alternative way of Malaysia with some fiscal The price increases that occurred replacing the revenue that will be lost cushion in the short term, were not caused by the GST, but by by the abolition of the GST. This would oil-based revenues are, as profiteering – which could happen with have negative implications for Malaysia’s seen in the last decade, the SST as well, which, if it is 10 per cent fiscal position as well as national debt, fickle and volatile. Malaysia as before, will be higher than the GST. which Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng cannot depend on them for says exceeds RM1 trillion, or 80 per the long term. GST AS SCAPEGOAT cent of GDP. Credit rating agencies Unfortunately, the GST also became Moody’s and Fitch have already warned While today’s relatively high oil a scapegoat for other issues such as that the abolition of GST will be “credit prices, at close to US$80 per barrel, the financial scandals relating to, for negative” for Malaysia. will provide Malaysia with some fiscal example, palm oil producer Felda In an attempt to reassure investors, cushion in the short term, oil-based Global Ventures and 1MDB. In some Ms Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Malaysia’s former revenues are, as seen in the last decade, voters’ minds, the issues came to be central bank governor who is on the fickle and volatile. Malaysia cannot linked: the GST was viewed as a means new government’s council of economic depend on them for the long term. After to recoup revenues that were lost to advisers, told about 180 fund managers the GST is abolished, the government Malaysia because of mismanagement at a meeting in Kuala Lumpur on May will eventually need to come up with and corruption. What was essentially an 15 that Malaysia’s fiscal position would new taxes – either on income or economically sound tax became tainted be improved by controlling expenditure. capital gains, or higher user charges. and politicised. “There will be a re-prioritising of The negative impact on the economy of It was not easy for Malaysia to enact projects, efforts to increase efficiency these taxes should also be factored into the GST, which took years of political of the government and efforts to reduce the cost of abolishing the GST. persuasion. Putting the enabling tax wastage of the public sector,” she said. As part of the justification for the administration in place was also a However, leaving aside the fact that abolition, the Malaysian government painstaking exercise. Businesses too Malaysia could do all this even without suggested that the cost of living would went through a difficult period setting abolishing the GST, the cutbacks fall. However, it is far from clear that up systems and processes to comply in expenditure will hurt Malaysia’s this would happen if the SST replaces with the new tax. But once in place, economy by lowering economic activity the GST. the GST has delivered for Malaysia as and creating unnecessary job losses. First, many essential goods and no other tax has done. It was one of This is why the IMF and the World services are not subject to GST, so their the best fiscal measures the country has Bank, among other institutions, have prices are unlikely to fall. ever enacted. always recommended that Malaysia Second, as the SST does not permit Abolishing it is relatively easy. But should improve its fiscal position businesses to claim input credits, they now comes the hard part: The new through revenue increases rather than would pass embedded taxes down the government has the unenviable task of expenditure cuts. In fact, in its 2018 supply chain. The final seller would add managing Malaysia’s finances without review of Malaysia’s economy, the IMF a margin to prices that already have the GST – and without an alternative had recommended that to secure its taxes embedded (a phenomenon called revenue measure that can match it. fiscal position, Malaysia needs to raise tax cascading) – all of which would its GST rate and eliminate exemptions. eventually be passed on to the end [email protected] 

33 Trade Watch

Goh Sui Noi China Bureau Chief Trade row could spur China to deepen reforms

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: ZAO BAO Beijing has moved to Another, Buwuzhengyeziren, wrote: “Some of these measures, like the “How is it that in the trade war with lowering of car tariffs, should have lower import tariffs US imperialists the Chinese people are taken place long ago,” noted economist and quicken the pace possibly becoming the biggest winners.” Yuan Gangming. From lowering import tariffs to He said the overly high tariffs on of opening up quickening the pace of opening up in car imports have led not only to more some sectors to the pledge to better expensive cars but also to inertia in the t seems counter-intuitive, but protect intellectual property, Mr Trump’s automotive industry. some Chinese are applauding US tough trade policy has unintentionally However, he added, China still imposes President Donald Trump’s move caused China to take actions beneficial high tariffs on apparel, footwear and head- to pressure China to increase its to its economy, Chinese analysts said. gear in which it was highly competitive. import of US goods. ISome are calling Mr Trump a “really good person” and that’s because US pressure has led China to reduce tariffs on many products, from cancer drugs and cars to consumables such as cosmet- ics and apparel, and washing machines. News assistant Miao Lina, 47, who looked up new prices of cosmetics after the latest round of tariff cuts announced late May, said happily: “There’s no need to go to Japan to buy cosmetics any more.” Netizen Touzizhedaqi posted on Sina Weibo: “The tariff reductions that we have asked for every day to no avail happened immediately after Trump threatened to increase tariffs. Trump is a really good person.” ST ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG

34 Trade Watch

That China was lowering tariffs on China-US economic ties these products only now showed that it had been slow and late in adjusting its US$ billion 600 policy, said Professor Yuan. Chinese exports to US* “The coercive pressure (of the 506 483 500 US exports to China* 468 463 Americans) has caused us to adjust and 426 440 to reform,” he said. 399 Sino-US trade tension has escalated 400 365 321 338 since Mr Trump took office last year 296 and threatened to slap punitive tariffs 300 to reduce a huge trade deficit the US has with China. He also accuses the Chinese 200 of stealing US intellectual property. 122 124 116 116 130 92 104 111 This year, the threat of a trade war 100 63 70 70 loomed as Mr Trump imposed tariffs on aluminium and steel in March and an- 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 nounced tariffs on US$50 billion (S$67 billion) worth of Chinese imports in April. NOTE: *Figures are rounded up China responded strongly, announc- ing its own commensurate tariffs on US imports. But it also acted to ward off TRADE HIGHLIGHTS a trade war. In 2017, US exports included In April, it announced tariff reduc- tions on cancer drugs. In May, it an- nounced tariff cuts for cars and, on May Boeing jets and Soya beans other aviation 30, cuts on consumables even as the US equipment, said it would go ahead with imposing valued at US$12.4b tariffs on Chinese goods. Top leaders including President Xi US$16.3b Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang also pledged better protection for intellectual property rights and to speed up the open- ing of financial and insurance sectors to foreign players, among other things. Their pledges are important. Mr William Zarit, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said recently China’s opening up measures “may actually happen because we heard from the very top of Chinese leadership”. New and Economist Hu Xingdou said the used cars US$10.5b lowering of tariffs was good for China as it made foreign goods more affordable to its people and would also stimulate US also bought many goods from China including consumption and help China transition from an export-driven economy to one led by consumption. Better intellectual property protec- tion would spur local innovation as peo- ple would be more willing to invest in it. Opening up its financial and insurance sectors would make them more com- petitive and resilient to risks, he added. He thought this current crisis could push China to “go on the road of really Clothing US$24.1b being a market economy”, adding that a market-driven development model was better for China than one driven by state-owned firms. “China has often been able to turn Mobile phones crisis into opportunity. So long as it deepens reforms, this crisis will be an Toys and US$70.4b games US$26.8b opportunity,” he said. Source: AFP PHOTOS: BLOOMBERG, AFP, ONEPLUS 2, REUTERS STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS [email protected] 

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PHOTO: REUTERS Zipping out to the shops

very week, Ms Cha Huilan takes an unconventional route to the market. The mother of two, living in a Chinese mountain village Ecut off by a raging river, dangles from a harness hooked to a zip line every time she crosses its violent rapids and jagged rocks to buy medicine for her mother. Stay informed on the Trump-Kim summit and Using a boat is out of the question for the villagers of Lazimi, which lacks get regular updates on happenings in the region. proper roads and bridges. The rocks and foaming waters of the river Nu – which means “angry” in Chinese – make it too The Straits Times’ weekly newsletter on Asia gives readers highlights of its dangerous to risk. correspondents’ reportage from across the region. The ST Asia Report newsletter “If they built a bridge, that would is part of the newspaper’s efforts to ramp up its coverage of developments be nice, but for now, we can’t get over PHOTO: REUTERS there,” says Ms Cha, who has come across Asia and globally. to see the zip line as just another over the river is 20km away from the western province of Yunnan. inconvenience, even if her two-year-old mountainside village. People estimate that 20 to 30 has to cling on for dear life on every The villagers have applied their own hamlets in the region still rely on zip visit to the Saturday market. ingenuity in building the zip lines, lines as their primary means across To sign up, please visit Most villagers, who are members of inclined downhill and relying mostly the river, although they are not always the Lisu ethnic group, also zip across on gravity, to cross the river Nu, which reliable as they become slippery when every Sunday for mass services at snakes from Tibet along China’s border it rains. readsph.com/free nearby churches. The nearest bridge with Myanmar through the south- REUTERS 

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