GAVILANGAVILAN JOINTJOINT COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY COLLEGECOLLEGE DISTRICTDISTRICT
2003-2030 DISTRICT GROWTH ANALYSIS
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September 08, 2004 2 2003-2030 Gavilan College District Growth Analysis
GAVILANGAVILAN JOINTCOMMUNITYJOINTCOMMUNITY COLLEGECOLLEGE DISTRICTDISTRICT 2003-2030 DISTRICT GROWTH ANALYSIS
Gavilan College Main Campus: Gilroy 5055 Santa Teresa Blvd. Gilroy, CA 95020
Hollister Briggs Building 365 Fourth Street Hollister, CA 95023
Morgan Hill Community and Cultural Center 17060 Monterey Street Morgan Hill, CA 95037
Gavilan College Aviation Campus - Hollister Airport 490 Skylane Drive Hollister, CA 95023
Dr. Steve Kinsella Superintendent-President Joseph Keeler Vice President, Administrative Services Sherrean Carr Vice President, Instructional Student Services
Terrence Willett Director of Research Nancy Bailey Administrative Assistant Suzanne Bulle Administrative Assistant
Gavilan College - Board of Trustees Laura Perry, Esq. Board President Elvira Robinson, Esq. Board Vice-President Tom Breen Board Clerk James De La Cruz Board Member Mark Dover Board Member Deb Smith Board Member Leonard Washington Board Member Jesse Sandow Student Trustee
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INTRODUCTION
Since its inception in 1919, Gavilan College has taken important steps to better serve its population. In 1964, 300 students attended Gavilan College and in 2003 nearly 5000 stu- dents attended Gavilan College. Although the student population has grown almost 17-fold, the following 30-years will present a bigger challenge as population will grow at a faster rate and the demand for higher education will escalate.
PURPOSE:
The following report will provide Gavilan College important information concerning the cur- rent and projected population and enrollment figures critical in identifying future campus locations.
METHODOLOGY:
The process of this investigation was dictated by the enrollment data collected by Gavilan College. The enrollment data is recorded by using the student’s zip code information. To facilitate the mapping of the enrollment data, the district map was divided by zip code area boundaries and was used throughout this investigation. The mapping of the enrollment fig- ures allows the district to understand the flow of students from different parts of the district. In addition, it helps determine the number of students coming from outside the district, bet- ter known as the “Free-Flow” phenomenon.
To achieve accurate Free-Flow results, all of the neighboring districts need to be included in the analysis. The results will provide an assessment of where students are attending or not attending school. Six neighboring colleges contributed their enrollment data for this analy- sis; San Jose Community College District, West Valley-Mission Community College District, Foothill/ De Anza Community College District, Cabrillo Community College District, Hartnell Community College District and Monterey Peninsula Community College District.
Current and projected population data was also mapped by zip code region to identify cur- rent population concentration areas and future population growth throughout the district. All population data and population projections were provided by the the Association of Bay Area Governments and the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments. Population is sep- arated into two age groups, 0-17 years of age and the adult population (18 and over.) The adult population will later be used to determine the participation rate of adults in Gavilan Community College Districts attending Gavilan College and other neighboring districts. Participation rates are important to determine what communities are served and under- served by the district.
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GEOGRAPHY The district is located at the southern part on the Santa Clara Valley and stretches south to the central region of San Benito County. Much of the district is in mountainous terrain, and there are only few areas were the population is con- centrated. The three major cities are; Hollister at the south, Gilroy near the center and Morgan Hills at the north. The 101 freeway is the only major north-to-south freeway, bisecting the northern part of the district. Smaller highways 156, 25 and 152 provide connections to the eastern communities of Hollister, Dunneville and others.
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IN-DISTRICT ENROLLMENT 83% of the 4922 district enrollment is coming from three major cities, Hollister, Gilroy and Morgan Hills.
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.5%
20%
3% 40%
.5%
2% 33.3%
.5%
.2%
IN-DISTRICT ENROLLMENT BREAKDOWN The current in-district enrollment is broken down as follows: Paicines .2%, Tres Pinos .5%, Hollister 33.3%, San Juan Bautista 2%, Aromas .5%, Gilroy 40%, San Martin 3%, Morgan Hills 20%, Coyote Valley/ San Jose Areas .5%.
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OVERALL FREE - FLOW The free-flow with six adjacent districts shows a net loss of 2,248 students to the adjacent districts. The biggest loss is to the northern districts of San Jose-Evergreen C.C.D., West Valley Mission C.C.D. and Foothill/ De Anza C.C.D. The district also loses 235 students to Hartnell C.C.D. and 105 students to Monterey Peninsula C.C.D. Refer to page 9 for a detail Free-Flow breakdown by district and region. Location of free-flow data was not done for the neighboring district to the east because of the sparse population and mountainous terrain. September 08, 2004 8 2003-2030 Gavilan College District Growth Analysis
FREE - FLOW BREAKDOWN
OVERALL FREE - FLOW BREAKDOWN GILROY OUT OF DISTRICT FREE-FLOW
College # of Students Hartnell College 87 Students Monterey Peninsula College 15 Students Cabrillo College 56 Students Foothill College 84 Students West Valley College 64 Students De Anza College 67 Students Mission College 90 Students San Jose City College 54 Students Evergreen Valley College 101 Students
Total Number of Students 618 Students * Refer to map on page 10
HOLLISTER OUT OF DISTRICT FREE-FLOW MORGAN HILL OUT OF DISTRICT FREE-FLOW
College # of Students College # of Students Hartnell College 169 Students Hartnell College 31 Students Monterey Peninsula College 68 Students Monterey Peninsula College 5 Students Cabrillo College 98 Students Cabrillo College 17 Students Foothill College 43 Students Foothill College 201 Students West Valley College 36 Students West Valley College 232 Students De Anza College 55 Students De Anza College 77 Students Mission College 18 Students Mission College 70 Students San Jose City College 28 Students San Jose City College 67 Students Evergreen Valley College 52 Students Evergreen Valley College 133 Students
Total Number of Students 567 Students Total Number of Students 833 Students * Refer to map on page 11 * Refer to map on page 12
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GILROY FREE - FLOW Gilroy has a total student enrollment of 2,367 students attending Gavillan College or the six out of district colleges. About 26% or 618 students from Gilroy attend colleges outside the district.
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HOLLISTER FREE - FLOW Hollister has a total student enrollment of 2009 students attending either Gavilan College or the six out-of-district col- leges. 28% or 567 students attend colleges outside the district.
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MORGAN HILLS FREE - FLOW Morgan Hills has a total student enrollment of 1734 students attending either Gavilan College or the six out-of-district colleges. 48% or 833 students attend colleges outside the district.
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2002 TOTAL POPULATION BY ZIP CODE The map above shows the most recent available existing total population distribution by zip code. While, population data is normally recorded by census tract, it is necessary to convert the data to zip code in order to correlate with the enrollment data and recorded by zip code. It should be noted that converting from census tract to zip code is not entire- ly accurate because census tract boundaries do not necessarily coincide with zip code boundaries.
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16% 13% 20% 15000 5% 7% 9434%
23% 8% 8% 19%
12% 21%
13% 2% 12%
29% 23% 2% 17%
10%
-2% 36% -5% 2010 TOTAL POPULATION BY ZIP CODE According to population forecasts by ABAG and AMBAG, Gavilan Community College District will have six of the fastest growing communities in the Santa Clara County, Santa Cruz County and San Benito County between 2003 and 2010. Hollister, Gilroy, Morgan Hills, San Juan Bautista and Coyote Valley will increase by over 17%-23% and Coyote Valley is expected to increase its population by 15,000 people. Adult population in 2010 is estimated to be 72.71% of the population, which will influence the enrollment figures in the next section of this study. September 08, 2004 14 2003-2030 Gavilan College District Growth Analysis
20% 20% 22%
70000 8% 18% 44025%
31%
9% 10% 30%
21% 28%
23% 6% 23%
46% 34% 4% 30%
19%
-2% 52% 30% 2020 TOTAL POPULATION BY ZIP CODE The population projections for 2020 show a consistent growth pattern in the communities of Hollister, San Juan Bautista, Gilroy and Morgan Hills. The four communities will increase 28-34% between 2003 and 2020, and about 23,778 people between the year 2010 and 2020. Coyote Valley growth figures are not derived from ABAG data, but rather the published eventual build-out population of 80,000. For purposes of this study. its 2020 population is estimat- ed slightly lower at 70,000. Adult population in 2020 is estimated to be 70.58% of the population. September 08, 2004 15 2003-2030 Gavilan College District Growth Analysis
34% 22% 24%
80000 8% 23% 50314%
43%
13% 10% 32%
34% 30%
24% 11% 28%
54% 42% 16% 37%
29%
0% 72% 76% 2030 TOTAL POPULATION BY ZIP CODE The population projections for 2030 show a significant rise in Morgan Hill and San Juan Bautista. The cities of Gonzalez and Salinas in Hartnell C.C.D. will also experience a large population increase. Coyote Valley is expected to ireach its build-out of 80,000. Adult population in 2020 is estimated to be 70.50% of the population.
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PARTICIPATION RATES & FUTURE ENROLLMENTS
The California Post-Secondary Education Commission (CPEC) defines participation rates as “enrollment divided by the adult population multiplied by 1000.” The result is usually expressed as a number per 1000 adults. In this report a per- centage is used instead. A 50:1,000 participation rate is expressed as 5%.
Gavilan College has good overall participation rates ranging from 5.48% to 6.86%, when one counts the enrollment to all seven colleges in this analysis. The participation rates within the district are much lower between 2.85% and 4.84%. As reflected on the free-flow analysis, 26 to 48% of students from the three major cities are attending colleges outside the district.
The population projections on pages 14-16, are predicting significant growth in those cities which will put more pres- sure on the existing institutions and on developing new ones. Areas near San Jose and Salinas are also expected to grow significantly in the following decades. This way, in turn, will cause overcrowding at several of these colleges in the north and south, potentially squeezing out Gavilan CCD students who presently travel out-of-district. That in turn presents significant enrollment growth fro Gavilan CCD campuses and centers.
The following charts provide enrollment figures from each of the Gavilan Community College District zip code areas. The enrollment figures were derived from the 2003 overall participation rates, and were applied to the adult population projections to find the expected number of students from each area. The results show an increase of 2015 students from 2003 to the year 2010, 3315 students from 2010 to the year 2020 and 1403 students from 2020 to the year 2030. Much of this increase is due to the Coyote Valley development, which will contribute 398 students by 2010, 2533 stu- dents by 2020 and 6281 students by 2030. The data suggests there will be no loss in the participation rates from the 2003 figures of 5.48%-6.86%. The maps on pages 19 to 21 provide a graphic analysis of the projected enrollments.
2003 PARTICIPATION AND ENROLLMENT 2010 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS City Name Enrollment Total Partici- City Name # of % Increase pation Rate (%) Students Between 2003-2010 Coyote 19 6.87 % Coyote 577 6,310 % Morgan Hill 1,734 5.48 % Morgan Hill 2,218 28 % San Martin 235 5.83 % San Martin 274 17 % Gilroy 2,367 6.55 % Gilroy 2,999 27 % Hollister 2,009 5.69 % Hollister 2,290 14 % Aromas 170 13.82 % Aromas 173 02 % San Juan Bautista 135 3.88 % San Juan Bautista 154 14 % Paicines 13 4.92 % Paicines 12 -05 % Total Number of 6682 Total Number of 8,697 27 % Students Students by 2010 * Refer to map on page 18 * Refer to map on page 19 2020 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2030 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS City Name # of % Increase City Name # of % Increase Students Between 2003-2020 Students Between 2003-2030 Coyote 2,692 29,815 % Coyote 3,077 34,088 % Morgan Hill 2,547 47 % Morgan Hill 3,083 78 % San Martin 279 19 % San Martin 280 19 % Gilroy 3,405 44 % Gilroy 3,506 48 % Hollister 2,710 35 % Hollister 3,020 50 % Aromas 181 06 % Aromas 190 12 % San Juan Bautista 179 33 % San Juan Bautista 205 52 % Paicines 19 42 % Paicines 54 312 % Total Number of 12,012 74 % Total Number of 13,415 93 % Students by 2020 Students by 2030 * Refer to map on page 20 * Refer to map on page 21 September 08, 2004 17 2003-2030 Gavilan College District Growth Analysis
2003 TOTAL PARTICIPATION RATES Currently , Gavilan CCD participation rates are higher on average near the Gavilan College campus and tend to decrease as a function of distance away from it. This is common throughout the State. Out-of-district participation rates (where population data was available) are similar with only few areas to the north significantly higher. This sug- gests that Gavilan CCD students are well served, either by attending in-district campuses or by travelling out-of-district.
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2010 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Using the 2003 participation rates and the projected 2010 population figures, (discounted to adult population,) the future enrollment derived from within the district can be calculated. It shows a potential enrollment of 8,697 students. Interestingly it is equality distributed between the 3 primary cities. It suggests the need for not only a north presence in the Morgan Hills-Coyote Valley area, but also a south presence in Hollister.
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2020 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS By 2020, predicted enrollment in the north will exceed the center and south district areas. The presence of new cen- ters or campus in the north and south should improve participation rates to the current rate near Gavilan College at 6.55. This may increase the estimated enrollment rates in north to 6051 students and in the south to 3629 students or a combined 1073 additional students.
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2030 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS By 2030, predicted enrollment will remain greatest in the north area, though beginning to level out. Enrollment in the south area will catch up with enrollment in the central area. This may increase the estimated enrollment rates in north to 7079 students and in the south to 4085 students or a combined 1073 additional students.
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CONCLUSIONS
1. Gavilan Community College District has significant enrollment growth potential in the coming 25 years.
2. If the district maintains its present participation rates, district-wide enrollments should increase from 4,922 in 2003 to 13,415 by 2030.
3. If the district improves its average participation to rate the current level in the Gilroy area of 6.55% (65.5 : 1000), it would further increase district-wide enrollment to 14,670 students.
4. However, to achieve the above enrollment projections, the district will need to address its significant enrollment losses by free-flow. If the free-flow losses are not addressed, the above two enrollment scenarios will be reduced by roughly 31%.
5. Free-flow losses might be in part from low critical mass of the present Gavilan College campus. Its small size may inhibit scheduling choices and program diversity. There may be physical issues behind the losses, including lack of air conditioning, which discourages afternoon classes.
6. The analysis of the 3 main district areas (north, central and south), justifies an earlier need for an additional campus in the north and than in the south – possibly as early as 2015.
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GAVILANGAVILAN JOINTCOMMUNITYJOINTCOMMUNITY COLLEGECOLLEGE DISTRICTDISTRICT APPENDIX
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2003 GAVILAN COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 CABRILLO COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 DE ANZA COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 EVERGREEN VALLEY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 FOOTHILL COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 HARTNELL COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 MISSION COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 MONTEREY PENINSULA COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 SAN JOSE CITY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 WEST VALLEY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
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2003 IN-COMING FREE-FLOW
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2003 IN-COMING FREE-FLOW
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2003 TOTAL PARTICIPATION RATE PER ZIP CODE AREA
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2003 IN-DISTRICT PARTICIPATION RATES
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20-minute service area
20-minute service area
20-minute service area
20-minute service area
DRIVING TIMES & SERVICE AREAS
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