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Office Leasing Tokyo – Q1/2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Offi ce Leasing Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information JAPAN Christian Mancini CEO, Asia Pacifi c (Ex Greater China) +81 3 6777 5150 [email protected] RESEARCH Tetsuya Kaneko Director, Head of Research Newer buildings driving rental growth & Consultancy, Japan +81 3 6777 5192 Strong demand, coupled with extremely low vacancy, is pushing up average [email protected] rents in the C5W. Yoshihiro Kanno • Grade A stock in Tokyo’s C5W is being snapped up by fi rms • While the outlook for 2019 seems stable, rental growth could Manager, Research & which are eager to expand or consolidate offi ces. Buildings slow or evaporate if an external shock emerges and weakens Consultancy, Japan +81 3 6777 5142 with large fl oor plates that can accommodate these needs demand. [email protected] are thus in high demand. Simon Smith • Average passing rents for Grade A offi ce space in the C5W Senior Director grew to JPY35,257 per tsubo1 per month, representing a gain “Average rents across the Asia Pacifi c +852 2842 4573 of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.6% year-on-year [email protected] (YoY). C5W have continued to Savills plc push higher in Q1/2019, with Savills is a leading global real • The average Grade A offi ce vacancy rate in the C5W hit 0.4% estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The in Q1/2019, dipping by 0.1 percentage points (ppts) QoQ and Shibuya seeing particularly company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled by 0.4ppts YoY. growth. It is a company that leads strong YoY growth. As the rather than follows, and now has over 600 offi ces and associates • Average passing rents for large-scale Grade B offi ce space throughout the Americas, Europe, volume of supply abates Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle rose to JPY26,827 per tsubo per month, growing by 1.7% East. This report is for general QoQ and 6.5% YoY. informative purposes only. It may somewhat this year, and pre- not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any • The average large-scale Grade B offi ce vacancy rate is now leasing is strong, rental growth contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior 0.4%, unchanged QoQ but 0.3ppts lower YoY. consent. Whilst every eff ort has seems likely to continue been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability • Top-line rents are growing strongly in Shibuya, where whatsoever for any direct or through 2019.” consequential loss arising from its vacancy is the tightest and the volume of new supply is large use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the compared to existing stock. SAVILLS RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written 1 1 tsubo = 3.306 sq m or 35.583 sq ft. permission from Savills Research. savills.co.jp/research 1 Offi ce Leasing GRADE A OFFICES sized businesses to larger corporations GRAPH 1: Offi ce Rents And Vacancy In Tokyo’s who are unable to fi nd space in the Grade A C5W*, 2011 to Q1/2019 Grade A offi ce rents rose 1.9% QoQ and 5.6% YoY in Q1/2019 to JPY35,257 per tsubo2.1 market. Since vacancy is currently slightly 4 3 Average Grade A Vacancy Average Grade B Vacancy Vacancy fell 0.1ppts QoQ to fi nish the tighter than in the Grade A market , and Average Grade A Rent Average Grade B Rent quarter at 0.4%, some 0.4ppts lower YoY. developers appear to be focusing on higher 40,000 14% Although business confi dence has tapered grade supply, this dynamic should remain for somewhat as of late, companies are still the time being and thus the outlook for rents 35,000 12% enjoying healthy profi ts and looking to is positive. 30,000 10% expand. According to the Nikkei, expansion GRADE A RENTS AND VACANCY VACANCY RATE VACANCY is currently the number one driver of offi ce 25,000 8% demand, closely followed by a desire to RATES BY WARD 20,000 consolidate offi ce locations. As a result, in Chiyoda 6% the absence of adequate vacancy in existing Chiyoda’s Grade A vacancy rate of 0.5% was 15,000 buildings, tenants are looking to secure space 0.2ppts tighter QoQ and 0.4ppts tighter 4% RENT (JPY / TSUBO) (JPY RENT 10,000 in buildings with large fl oor plates via the YoY. Grade A rents climbed by 1.0% QoQ pre-leasing market. Indeed, the majority of and 3.5% YoY to JPY41,819 per tsubo. Nippon 5,000 2% 2019 and 2020 supply is already pre-leased, Steel & Sumikin Metal Products will relocate 0 0% so the short-term outlook for rents appears its headquarters to Akihabara UDX in the Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 summer of 2019, leasing approximately 1,200 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 stable. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201819 tsubo for 450 employees. Improving business Source Savills Research & Consultancy LARGE-SCALE GRADE B OFFICES continuity measures and consolidating onto *Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shibuya, and Shinjuku Large-scale Grade B offi ce32rents rose 1.7% a single fl oor to streamline operations were QoQ and 6.5% YoY in Q1/2019, to JPY26,827 both cited as reasons for the move. Carl Zeiss per tsubo. Vacancy was unchanged QoQ (Japan) will relocate its headquarters from its GRAPH 2: Grade A Offi ce Rental Index By Ward, own building in Shinjuku to the Sumitomo 2011 to Q1/2019 but dipped 0.3ppts YoY to fi nish the quarter at 0.4%. Even as vacancy materialises Fudosan Kojimachi Building No. 4, taking Chiyoda Chuo Minato periodically, excess space is quickly swept approximately 880 tsubo. Shinjuku Shibuya Average up by strong demand. For example, Chuo 180 saw a pocket of vacancy open up at the Chuo 170 beginning of the quarter, raising the ward’s Chuo’s Grade A vacancy rate of 1.0% was 0.1ppts higher than last period but 0.4ppts 160 average vacancy rate to 1.5%. Glass City Harumi, the building responsible for this tighter YoY. Grade A rents grew 2.3% QoQ 150 uptick, was reported by the Nikkei to have and 6.3% YoY, to JPY33,283 per tsubo. 140 just 47% occupancy in January. However, it Sumitomo Life Insurance intends to relocate is now rumoured to have already fi lled most its Tokyo headquarters to the under- 130 of this space and, as a result, Chuo ended the construction Yaesu 2-Chome North District Q1/2012 = = 100 Q1/2012 120 quarter at 0.8% vacancy. Category I Urban Redevelopment Project 110 New completions in the large-scale Grade in FY2022, after purchasing approximately B market are scant, while such offi ces appeal seven fl oors. It will use fi ve of these for its 100 to a wide range of tenants, from medium- own offi ces, taking an estimated fl oor area 90 of 5,600 tsubo. In February 2019, Yamato 21 Throughout the report, “per tsubo” is shorthand for “per Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 tsubo per month”. System Development leased approximately 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 19 32 “Large-scale Grade B offi ce” refers to buildings with a GFA of 4,500 tsubo (15,000 sq m) and a building age of less 43 While both vacancies appear equal after rounding, large-scale Grade B vacancy was slightly tighter than Grade Source Savills Research & Consultancy than 25 years. Some buildings are included that do not fi t this defi nition. A at the end of Q1/2019. GRAPH 3: Grade A Offi ce Vacancy By Ward, TABLE 1: Major Tenant Relocations Q1/2019 Q4/2017 to Q1/2019 Q4/2017 Q1/2018 Q2/2018 Q3/2018 Q4/2018 Q1/2019 ORIGIN 5% Chiyoda Chuo Minato Shibuya Shinjuku Other 4% 6663 210 DESTINATION 3% 22 1 1 1 7Chiyoda 41 1 6Chuo 2% 1411310Minato 1% 1214Shibuya 2 2Shinjuku 0% 44Other Chiyoda Chuo Minato Shinjuku Shibuya Source Savills Research & Consultancy Source Nikkei RE, Savills Research & Consultancy savills.co.jp/research 2 Offi ce Leasing TABLE 2: Notable Offi ce Leasing Transactions, Q1/2019 BUSINESS FORMER/CURRENT APPROXIMATE SPACE COMPANY TYPE NEW LOCATION SECTOR LOCATION TSUBO SQ M Takeshiba Area Development Tokyo Shiodome Building SoftBank Group Telecom HQ relocation Project Offi ce Building 24,000 79,300 Minato-ku Minato-ku Yaesu 2-Chome North District Sumitomo Life Kowa Sumisei Tsukiji Building Financial HQ relocation Block A-1 5,600 18,500 Insurance Chuo-ku Chuo-ku Consumer Company owned building Waters Takeshiba Yakult Honsha Expansion 4,500 14,900 Discretionary Minato-ku Minato-ku Yotsuya Station Area Category I Asahi Mutual Life Asahi Seimei Otemachi Building Financial HQ relocation Urban Redevelopment Project 2,800 9,300 Insurance Chiyoda-ku Shinjuku-ku Harumi Island Triton Square Yamato System KR Toyosu Building Technology Expansion Offi ce Tower Z 2,400 7,900 Development Koto-ku Chuo-ku Source Nikkei RE, Savills Research & Consultancy MAP 1: Average Rents Per Tsubo In Selected Submarkets Q1/2019 ¥30.7 ¥32.4¥31.6 ¥47.0 ¥35.7 ¥25.1 ¥34.3 ¥33.8 ¥29.2 ¥37.7 Source Nikkei RE, Savills Research & Consultancy Grade A buildings, average passing rent + CAM per tsubo per month in thousand JPY.
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