Tokyo – Q4/2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Offi ce Leasing Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information JAPAN Christian Mancini CEO, Asia Pacifi c (Ex Greater China) +81 3 6777 5150 [email protected] RESEARCH Tetsuya Kaneko Director, Head of Research Offi ce rents on an upward path & Consultancy, Japan +81 3 6777 5192 Rents have reached high levels following fervent growth in the C5W, [email protected] especially in the Grade A market, whilst vacancy remains air-tight. Matthew D’Elia Manager, Research & • Against a backdrop of limited availability, competition for space • Fundamentals in the offi ce market remain strong. With Consultancy, Japan in the Grade A market was fi erce in Q4/2019. Rents over both most of the supply expected over the shorter term close to +81 3 6777 5179 the quarter and year saw the greatest change since 2014, while or already completed, rent growth should persist for now, [email protected] vacancy remained at rock bottom. albeit at a fl at to moderate level. Simon Smith Senior Director • Average passing rents for Grade A offi ce space in the C5W Asia Pacifi c grew 2.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 8.0% year-on-year +852 2842 4573 (YoY) to JPY37,373 per tsubo1 per month. “ Rental growth in the offi ce [email protected] sector this quarter, and over Savills plc • The average Grade A offi ce vacancy rate in the C5W Savills is a leading global real the year, has been impressive, estate service provider listed on remained at around 0.2% over the quarter in Q4/2019, while the London Stock Exchange. The rates contracted 0.3ppts YoY. company established in 1855, has beating initial expectations. a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has • Average passing rents for large-scale Grade B offi ce space Growth should be fl at to over 600 offi ces and associates rose to JPY28,178 per tsubo per month, growing by 1.0% throughout the Americas, Europe, moderate going forward, Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle QoQ and 6.8% YoY. East. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may however.” not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may • The average large-scale Grade B offi ce vacancy rate stands at it be used as a basis for any SAVILLS RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY contract, prospectus, agreement 0.1% following a decline of 0.1ppts QoQ and 0.5ppts YoY. or other document without prior consent. Whilst every eff ort has been made to ensure its accuracy, • Shibuya has reinvented itself as the go-to location for Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or technology fi rms specialising in internet-related services, and consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly rents in the offi ce sector have responded accordingly. copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. 1 1 tsubo = 3.306 sq m or 35.583 sq ft. savills.co.jp/research 1 Offi ce Leasing GRADE A OFFICES 7%, having been around 15% at the start of GRAPH 1: Offi ce Rents And Vacancy In Tokyo’s the year. Vacancy in this ward remains the C5W*, 2011 to Q4/2019 Despite continued uncertainty regarding the global economic environment, it seems that highest in the submarket at 0.6%, despite a Average Grade A Vacancy Average Grade B Vacancy the momentum is still with Grade A offi ce 0.2ppts QoQ and 0.1ppts YoY contraction. Average Grade A Rent Average Grade B Rent rents, as evidenced by the increase of 2.7% The ward is not entirely without appeal 40,000 16% QoQ and 8.0% YoY to JPY37,373 per tsubo21 to traditional technology companies, however. For example, it has been reported 35,000 14% in Q4/2019 – the fastest rates of growth in fi ve years. Shibuya continues to carry the that Dell Japan and EMC Japan, both part 30,000 12% day as technology companies, unperturbed of Dell Technologies, will relocate their VACANCY RATE VACANCY headquarters to Otemachi One Tower in 25,000 10% by the level of passing rents in the ward, remain in the hunt for offi ce space. It also 2021/22, leasing around 7,800 tsubo across 20,000 8% appears landlords in Marunouchi, Chiyoda seven fl oors. have jumped on the bandwagon by trying to 15,000 6% woo these global tech players to the area, in Chuo RENT (JPY / TSUBO) (JPY RENT 10,000 4% the hope of increasing rents further, as well It appears there is no longer any vacancy as tenant diversifi cation. Vacancy, already in Chuo following a 0.1ppts QoQ decline, 5,000 2% at air-tight levels, unsurprisingly remained while over the year, the ward was home 0 0% fairly fl at over the quarter. During the year, to the biggest change in Grade A vacancy, Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 however, the C5W Grade A offi ce market with a 0.9ppts compression. Change is on 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 experienced a 0.3ppts reduction, falling to the horizon for Museum Tower Kyobashi, Source Savills Research & Consultancy 0.2% – the lowest level this decade. with over 2,500 tsubo reportedly leased by *Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shibuya, and Shinjuku four new tenants, including Eneos Frontier, LARGE-SCALE GRADE B OFFICES who leased two fl oors totalling around 800 Not wanting to be left out, large-scale Grade GRAPH 2: Grade A Offi ce Rental Index By Ward, tsubo in November 2019. Grade A rents in B offi ce32rents also experienced solid gains 2011 to Q4/2019 Chuo grew 2.0% QoQ and a solid 8.2% YoY in Q4/2019. Average passing rents now stand – the most in fi ve years. Following another Chiyoda Chuo Minato at JPY28,178 per tsubo, having increased quarter of positive growth, this ward has Shinjuku Shibuya Average by 1.0% QoQ and 6.8% YoY. As per the 190 now witnessed the longest streak of growth Grade A market, Shibuya was again the top 180 performer over the year. Vacancy stands in the submarket, dating back to Q3/2012. 170 at 0.1% after a slight tightening of 0.1ppts Minato 160 QoQ and 0.5ppts YoY – mostly driven by the 2.0ppts contraction in Chuo. With large Minato has the second highest Grade 150 developers focused on the Grade A sector, A vacancy at 0.2%, despite a 0.3ppts 140 the Grade B market continues to benefi t contraction over the year. Over the quarter, 130 from tight supply. This trend is expected vacancy held fl at. Changes in Grade A rent, Q1/2012 = = 100 Q1/2012 120 to continue given the variation in rents, on the other hand, were more noticeable, meaning these two markets do not directly with growth of 2.3% QoQ and 6.4% YoY 110 compete. Nonetheless, as the tenant pool – representing an expansion in growth 100 for these assets is dominated by smaller, every year since 2016. Rents now stand at 90 less fi nancially able companies, an ongoing JPY34,167, a level not seen since Q1/2009. Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 concern is their resilience when this That said, this ward still lags in terms of 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 property upswing does inevitably come to post-2008 recovery, with rents over 30% Source Savills Research & Consultancy an end. Given current economic conditions, below peaks, suggesting potential upside however, such a downturn appears unlikely going forward, especially with projects such to manifest soon. as the Toranomon-Azabudai Project, slated GRAPH 3: Grade A Offi ce Vacancy By Ward, for 2023. The biggest move announced this Q3/2018 to Q4/2019 GRADE A RENTS AND VACANCY quarter is the Suntory Group’s relocation RATES BY WARD Q3/2018 Q4/2018 Q1/2019 Q2/2019 Q3/2019 Q4/2019 Chiyoda into msb Tamachi Station Tower North in 1.25% the spring of 2021. The fi rm is reportedly Grade A Offi ces in Chiyoda have historically commanded the highest rents, and this leasing around 7,000 tsubo, citing improved synergy following the consolidation of 1.00% remains the case in Q4/2019 following growth of 2.5% QoQ and 4.4% YoY to offi ces as a key factor in the move. JPY43,216 per tsubo. There are reports of 0.75% instances whereby prime offi ces next to Shibuya Tokyo station have asked for rents north The Shibuya market was abuzz with activity of JPY60,000 per tsubo. That said, the as the competition for space intensifi ed. The 0.50% ward’s position at the top is under threat. result has been a signifi cant jump in passing The emergence of Shibuya as the go-to rents over the quarter, and an even more location for cash-rich internet-related impressive increase over the year. Rents now 0.25% technology companies has seen the spread stand at JPY40,381 per tsubo, having grown between these top two wards narrow to 4.0% QoQ and 13.9% YoY. In fact, rents have 21 Throughout the report, “per tsubo” is shorthand for “per exceeded JPY40,000 for the fi rst time since 0.00% tsubo per month”.