Elissa Miller
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Pressure Points: Assessing Vulnerability to Protests in Tunisia Introduction proximity to government services of Tatouine; Skhira and Sidi Ali Ben worship and government services defined as schools, libraries, and Aoun in the central governorates of was gathered from crowdsourced, Observers often refer to Tunisia as police stations. The data was Sfax and Sidi Bouzid respectively; open-source data, it is possible that the single success story of the Arab gathered from publicly available and Ezzouhar in the governorate of not all locations were included in Spring. This obscures the major OpenStreetMap data. Protests are Tunis, near the capital. With the the datasets. This may have been challenges Tunisia faces more than more likely to occur as average exception of Ezzouhour, all are exacerbated by the limited access to eight years after its revolution. proximity to places of worship that located in areas that have witnessed Tunisia’s south and border areas Those residing in the interior serve a gathering function anti-government protests over with Algeria and Libya. Finally, the continue to face marginalization (mosques) decreases. Meanwhile, socioeconomic grievances in the weighting and scaling of the data, compared to those in coastal areas. vulnerability to protests increases as last five years. The fact that as well as the decision to use As a result, Tunisia has witnessed average proximity to services delegations in the south have less manual breaks in determining several waves of protests over increases and access to public goods proximity to mosques as potential proximity based on walkability, persistently poor socioeconomic declines. The distances of each protest gathering places compared likely impacted the results. conditions since the first post- pixel from mosques and services revolutionary polls in 2014. were calculated, averaged, and Demographics of Most Vulnerable Delegations Tunisia is scheduled to hold its next scored within delegation round of general elections in boundaries. November 2019. The government is Lastly, protest data from the Armed likely to continue to contend with Conflict Location and Event Data protests in the preceding months as Project was used to determine the citizens express frustration over the density of protests by delegation socioeconomic state of affairs. As from 2015-2018, the three years such, this project aimed to identify between the general elections. which areas in Tunisia are most Protests are more likely to take vulnerable to protest. place in areas that have experienced incidents of political violence in the Methodology past. This project used specific criteria to All indicators were scored using a determine which of Tunisia’s 268 scale of 1 (lowest vulnerability to delegations (administrative level 2) protest) to 5 (highest vulnerability). to the north does not appear to are most vulnerable to protests. The Breaks in the data were determined Cartographer: Elissa Miller significantly reduce the demographic and socioeconomic manually for each dataset based on The Fletcher School of Law and vulnerability of those delegations. indicators include the rate of male mean and standard deviation. The Diplomacy unemployment, the percentage of data was then added together in a This project had several limitations. Course: DHP P207: GIS for males aged 15-29 years-old, and the weighted formal, with more First, the lack of consistent census International Applications rate of unmarried males. The emphasis on demographic and data was a challenge. The dataset Date: May 5, 2019 (Spring 2019) former two datasets were taken for the rate of unmarried males was Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 32N socioeconomic indicators, to Results southwest governorate of Gafsa; from Tunisia’s 2014 census results, produce an overall vulnerability taken from Tunisia’s 2004 census, Data Sources: Database of Global while the latter was taken from The results of this analysis show Majel Belabbes in the southwest as that data was not available in the Administrative Areas (GADM), score (maximum of 30). These that the eleven delegations with the governorate of Kasserine; Faouar in Tunisia’s 2004 census results. scores were then averaged and most recent 2014 census. Therefore, Humanitarian Data Exchange, highest vulnerability to protest are the southwest governorate of Kebili, OpenStreetMap, Tunisia National Additional indicators used included manually classified into a final scale data on male unemployment and largely located in Tunisia’s south Tamaghza in the Southwest male youth was gathered from Institute of Statistics, average proximity to places of of lowest to highest vulnerability. Armed Conflict Location & worship, namely mosques, in each and southwest: Metlaoui, Oum governorate of Tozeur, Dhbi and separate census results. Second, Larais, and Redeyef in the Remada in the southern governorate Event Data Project delegation, as well as average because the data on places of (ACLED), ESRI Places of Worship Government Services Past Protests Male Unemployment Male Youth Unmarried Males .