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Research & Forecast Report Accelerating success. CALGARY DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET Third Quarter 2018 Market Overview value proposition offered by the downtown office market and its landlords. Most notable would be The downtown Calgary office market continued to Parkland Fuel Corporation’s recent lease of 116,000 show signs of modest improvement over the summer square feet in BP Centre for their headquarters months and for the third straight quarter the market consolidation and relocation from northeast Calgary. experienced positive absorption. Total absorption in There are currently other significant sized suburban the downtown office market was 278,385 square tenants that are reviewing moves downtown which feet through the third quarter of 2018, which is the will have a positive impact on this market moving strongest quarterly performance Colliers has tracked forward. since early 2014. Even with the addition TELUS Sky to the downtown inventory (461,000 SF), the overall Market Trends vacancy rate remained virtually unchanged at 26.82%. This brings a welcome end to the latest Tenant movements out of the Class B market development cycle that has delivered over 4.6 million accelerated over the quarter resulting in the vacancy square feet to this market over the past five years. rate climb to 42.3%, up from 38.0% the previous The year-to-date total absorption is now at 573,766 quarter. There is currently more than 3.5 million square feet which is in line with Colliers long-term square feet of vacant space in the Class B market absorption averages. versus 2.9 million a year ago. By contrast, the Class AA market has seen its vacancy rate steadily drop Strengthening demand has been bolstered by over the year and now sits at 20.42% while year-to- suburban tenants who have taken advantage of the date absorption in Class AA has reached a notable 720,383 square feet. Breakdown of Downtown Calgary Office Vacancy By Class Headlease & Sublease Comparison BUILDING CLASS TOTAL INVENTORY HEADLEASE AVAILABILITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY TOTAL AVAILABILITY Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018 % Q3 2018 % AA 16,395,629 16,856,813 989,210 1,342,962 2,589,083 2,098,409 3,578,293 21.82% 3,441,371 20.42% A 13,738,290 13,738,290 1,954,879 2,061,784 1,142,313 950,398 3,097,192 22.54% 3,012,182 21.93% B 8,355,996 8,290,285 2,948,185 3,386,519 223,978 117,279 3,172,163 37.96% 3,503,798 42.26% C 5,329,279 5,329,279 1,711,126 1,724,054 183,385 177,842 1,894,511 35.55% 1,901,896 35.69% Total 43,819,194 44,214,667 7,603,400 8,515,319 4,138,759 3,343,928 11,742,159 26.80% 11,859,247 26.82% Q3 2018 Absorption: 278,385 SF Source: Colliers Research Q3 2018 1 Research & Forecast Report | Third Quarter 2018 | Calgary Downtown | Colliers International Another trend that accelerated over the past quarter was the continuing shift toward headlease vacancy Summary Statistics in the market. In the third quarter of 2018 headlease Downtown Office Market Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Trend space represented approximately 71.8% of all vacancy, up a full 7% from the previous quarter. OFFICE INVENTORY 43,819,194 44,214,667 With this change toward more landlord control of NET ABSORPTION 113,962 278,385 vacant space Colliers has noticed more consistency in pricing, overall offering and modest firming of VACANCY RATE 26.80% 26.82% expectations. Colliers is also continuing to see AVERAGE ASKING NET RENT $14.00 $14.00 landlords looking to make substantial capital (‘A’ CLASS BUILDINGS) investments in aging office assets to better position AVERAGE ADDITIONAL RENT $20.50 $20.50 them within the leasing market. The most recent (‘A’ CLASS BUILDINGS) example of this is Slate Asset Management’s plan to put significant capital into the redevelopment of Stephen Avenue Place (the former Scotia Centre). Total Inventory & Occupied Space Calgary Downtown Oce 50 45 Q3 2014 OCCUPIED SPACE 37,333,600 SF Q3 2009 OCCUPIED SPACE 40 31,123,546 SF Q3 2018 OCCUPIED SPACE Q1 2007 32,355,420 SF OCCUPIED SPACE 33,214,742 SF (MILLIONS) SQUARE FEET SQUARE 35 30 Forecast per Year *Absorption: 500,000 SF 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: CMN Calgary Inc. OCCUPIED SPACE TOTAL INVENTORY 2 Research & Forecast Report | Third Quarter 2018 | Calgary Downtown | Colliers International Economic Outlook The Canadian oil and gas industry continues to face bbl./day. LNG Canada’s positive final investment significant headwinds but there are perhaps more decision on the Kitimat LNG export terminal is very notes of optimism in the air. Unusually wide welcome news within the energy industry. While differentials between WCS and WTI have persisted this recent announcement won’t have much near and Alberta oil throughout the third quarter was term impact on the downtown office market, it selling for US$30-US$35 per barrel less than world certainly is a positive nonetheless. With approval of prices. While WCS (US$/bbl.) has increased 26.1 % this project, both regulatory and financially, overall from a year ago it has unfortunately not matched the confidence will boost and start freeing up the much 41.7% increase in WTI (Aug, 2017 - Aug, 2018). needed capital flows into the Canadian oil and gas There is hope that these differentials will moderate industry and the Alberta economy. as refining capacity comes back on stream and oil-by-rail continues to increase toward 400,000 Composition of Headlease Vacancy January 1st 2013 - September 30th 2018 AS AT SEPTEMBER 30TH 2018 AA 1,342,962 SF 7.97% 40 AS AT APRIL 30TH 2015 A 2,061,784 SF 15.01% AS AT JANUARY 1ST 2013 AA 237,118 SF 1.66% B 3,386,519 SF 40.85% AA 53,948 SF 0.40% A 858,280 SF 6.46% C 1,724,054 SF 32.35% 35 A 250,693 SF 1.89% B 838,990 SF 9.70% B 341,519 SF 3.91% C 559,604 SF 13.24% C 395,149 SF 8.33% 30 25 20 15 Headlease Vacancy Rate Headlease Vacancy 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 BUILDING CLASS AA A B C 3 Research & Forecast Report | Third Quarter 2018 | Calgary Downtown | Colliers International Notable Transactions Company Building Address Approx. Area (SF) 1. Parkland Fuels Ltd BP Centre 240 - 4th Avenue SW 116,000 SF 2.* Telus F1RST Tower 411 - 1st Street SE 85,000 SF Livingston Place - 3. MLT Aikins 222 - 3rd Avenue SW 32,000 SF South Tower Eighth Avenue Place - 4.* Packers Plus 525 - 8th Avenue SW 24,000 SF East Tower Sun Life Plaza - East 5. Aviva Insurance 112 - 4th Avenue SW 15,000 SF Tower *Transactions that Colliers was involved in. Historical & Projected Vacancy 2010-2019 New Oce Development, Annual Absorption & Vacancy Rates DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET 3,000,000 30% 26.82% 2,500,000 Q3 2018 26.60% 24.80% 2,000,000 Q4 2016 25% 25.47% 1,500,000 1,000,000 20% 18.11% RATE VACANCY 500,000 Q4 2015 15.22% 0 15% -500,000 12.70% 11.97% SQUARE FEET SQUARE -1,000,000 10% Q3 2018 Absorption 8.52% 278,385 SF -1,500,000 Q4 2014 7.27% Q4 2013 -2,000,000 5% 4.49% Q4 2011 3.68% FORECAST -2,500,000 Q4 2012 -3,000,000 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NEW OFFICE HISTORICAL & VACANCY RATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED ABSORPTION 4 Research & Forecast Report | Third Quarter 2018 | Calgary Downtown | Colliers International 9 STREET NW Development Cycle GLENWOODMANOR Centennial Place East & West BOW RIVER DISCOVERY Development(s) HILL 310-314 CALGARY DOWNTOWN MAP 321 NW ST 10 Eighth Avenue Place - East Tower 10 ST NW 1 AVENUE NE BROKEN PLATE RIVER RUN CONDO’S HILL LEGEND HOUSE 2,260,688 SF 301 HOLLY Square Footage 10 ST NW PARK 233 YARD 2010 MEMORIAL DRIVE NW PRINCE'S ISLAND ESTATES UNDER CONSTRUCTION COMMERICAL YEOMAN'S MARSH ROAD NE 500 HOLLY Annual Absorption 1,871,708 SF EAU CLAIRE POINT PEACE BRIDGE FUTURE/POTENTIAL COMMERICAL SITE THE PRINCETON 10 STREET NW STREET 10 WATERFRONT MANOR EAU CLAIRE CONDOS COMMERCIAL HOWIE HELIPORT YMCA MEREDITH BLDG CENTRE STREET BRIDGE STREET CENTRE ST VLADIMIR'S 211 EAU CLAIRE MARKET UNDER CONSTRUCTION RESIDENTIAL UKRAINIAN 10 ST NW MEMORIAL DRIVE NE ORTHODOX 130- 148 10 ST NW ST 10 148 130- CHURCH BARCLAY PARADE BARCLAY CAFE Development(s) No New Developments THE EAU CLAIRE AVENUE SW 1886 BOW RIVER P CONCORD RIVERFRONT AVE SW FUTURE/POTENTIAL RESIDENTIAL SITE MEREDITH ROAD NE MILL BARLEY 1 AVENUE SW RESIDENTIAL MILLENIUM SIEN LOK PARK 205 Square Footage N/A CALGARY SHERATON JOEY TOWER CHINATOWN EAU CLAIRE CENTRE SENIOR’S 2011 TOMATOES EAU CLAIRE P P P RIVERFRONT KENSINGTON NW ST 10 126 - 106 APTS BOW GATE LA CAILLE CLAIRE COVERED SURFACE PARKING BOWSIDE RESTAURANT ESTATES JOE P BLDG MANOR PHILLIPS LA CAILLE 116 140 P N.W. LRT BRIDGE 2,823,902 SF CAILLE LA Annual Absorption CONDOS CENTRE 2 AVE SW AVE 2 CENTRE 2 AVE SW HONG KONG UNITED ON THE PARKE THE ON CHURCH + 15 WALKWAY HARMONIOUS BROADVIEW PLAZA 2 AVENUE SW 2 AVENUE SW DAQING AVENUE SW 2 AVENUE SW FUTURE +15 WALKWAY CHOW EAU CLAIRE THE POINT 735 CENTENNIAL PLACE NG BLOCK 123 119 CILTURAL CENTRE CILTURAL LOOKOUT CHINESE CALGARY REST.
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