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Q3 2019 Point of View Downtown/Beltline Office Market

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Q3 2019 Point of View Downtown/Beltline Office Market Q3 2019 Point of View Downtown/Beltline Office Market An Insight into the Calgary Office Market Q3 2019 Point of View Table of Contents 1. Market Overview 2. Market Forecast 3. New Developments 4. Additional Graphs and Tables 5. Appendices A: Class AA Office Vacancy B: Class A Office Vacancy C: Class B Office Vacancy D: Class C Office Vacancy E: Beltline Office Vacancy F: Kensington Office Vacancy G: Inglewood Office Vacancy H: Mission Office Vacancy I: Class AA Parking & Operating Costs J: Class A Parking & Operating Costs K: Class B Parking & Operating Costs L: Class C Parking & Operating Costs M: Beltline Parking & Operating Costs Secure Energy recently completed a new transaction in Brookfield Place - East Brookfield Place - East Q2 2019 Point of View Market Overview Downtown Office Market What will be required to really move the market is significant absorption to the tune Downtown Supply of +1M square feet and we don’t forecast 43,839,998 sf this type of growth in the foreseeable future. Well, here we are – five years into this 20.15% we have seen an increase in occupied “downturn”. To be frank, it has proven difficult Class AA space of 1.6M square feet. This is to write anything new about the market given significant, especially considering we have it has been range-bound for so long. Class AA added 1.5M sf of Class AA inventory over this Downtown Vacancy vacancy sits at 17.24%, Class A 24.07%, Class time. With this positive absorption, Class AA B 37.44% and Class C 28.58%. Absorption for vacancy is now down to 17.24%. The overall 24.05% the third quarter of 2019 was negative 33,560 market remains relatively stagnant, but the flight square feet, which, on the heels of two quarters to quality is real and we expect it will continue of positive absorption to kick off the year, brings – especially so for high quality built out space in the year-to-date tally to 369,255 square feet. premium buildings. With this level of absorption, it appears we will Given the nuances of different segments of end the year with positive absorption at a level the market, we’ve decided to put ourselves in Downtown Avg Net Rent higher than what we’ve seen in the last five a typical tenant’s shoes for varying sizes and years. explain where the opportunity in the market is, $16.01/sf Although we could be looking at positive why that is such, and how much leverage typical absorption, it’s a marginal amount and the tenants have for a range of requirements in the market will remain range-bound, having market. For the purposes of taking a walk in a bounced around between 24% to 26% since tenant’s shoes, we’ve assumed the following 2016. To put this level of absorption into requirements in the Calgary downtown perspective, if we finish the year flat through Less than 5,000 square feet Q3 2019 Downtown Q4, vacancy will decrease by ~0.9%. If we call (Companies up to ~20 people): Absorption a balanced market 10% vacancy, we are over 15 years away from balance at this pace. What Although the overall market is 24.05% vacant, -33,560 sf will be required to really move the market is this size of requirement comes with it’s significant absorption to the tune of +1M square Total # of Vacancies 1,000-5,000 sf feet and we don’t forecast this type of growth in 200 the foreseeable future. 150 The market is stuck at a very high level of 100 vacancy but that is not to say there have not 50 been shifts in the market based on size of - vacancy and class of building. As an example, AA A B C since Class AA vacancy peaked in Q4 2016 at Headlease Sublease Q3 2019 Point of View Total % Vacancy Current Downtown Vacancy Occupied vs Vacancy Vacancy continues to hover in the range 17.24% fo 24-26%. Despite the high vacancy, and 28.58% depending on a tenant’s size range, there are some opportunities that still exist in the market. 24.07% 37.44% Occupied Vacant AA A B C 75.00% Sublease Vacancy Index AA = 51.93% The bulk of sublease options available are still 60.00% found in the Class AA sector but has dropped slightly since last quarter, indicating either 45.00% quality sublease space is being subleased or remaining subleases available are expiring and rolling back to a headlease availability. 30.00% A = 16.67% 15.00% te C = 9.92% Ra y nc B = 5.59% ca Va 0.00% Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Class AA Class A Class B Class C Comparative Vacancy 45.00% 40.00% Vacancy remains at it’s highest for over two 35.00% decades and likely will remain here without sustained growth in oil and natural gas. 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% % 5.00% cy acan V 0.00% Class AA Class A Class B Class C Q3 2019 Point of View 600 Historical Downtown Absorption 400 Absorption has dropped marginally this 200 quarter; year-to-date absorption is at 369,265 square feet. The market will likely finish the 0 year off with positive absorption for the first time since 2017. (200) ) sf 00's (0 (400) on pti or Abs (600) Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Class A/AA (353,265) 397,05972,310 (167,350) 224,141 182,591195,865 77,601 19,599 Class B (11,534)(25,370)(31,381)(147,531) (40,016) (31,449) 127,279 (9,428)(12,487) Class C (52,035) 45,43121,461 (52,905) 20,843 (94,539) 10,533 965 (40,672) Quarterly Absorption (416,834) 417,12062,390 (367,786) 204,968 56,603333,677 69,138 (33,560) All Classes Asking Net Rental Rates $50.00 As vacancy rates remain high, rental rates $45.00 slowly fall as sublandlords and landlords try to $40.00 entice tenants in the market to consider their $35.00 options. $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 r sf $10.00 pe ate $5.00 R et N $- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD Class AA Class A Class B Class C Historical Operating Costs $25 Operating costs will not change for the remainder of the year. It remains to be seen if $20 operating costs will continue to fall slightly in the wake of how property taxes are handled $15 by They City. $10 $5 sf per st Co $0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 Class AA $21.23 $22.60$23.58 $23.67 $22.79 $22.86 $22.75 Class A $18.76 $20.25$21.54 $21.51 $20.77 $20.27 $18.78 Class B $16.22 $18.44$19.38 $18.96 $17.79 $16.82 $16.43 Class C $14.50 $16.07$16.74 $16.94 $16.89 $16.46 $16.39 Q3 2019 Point of View challenges given: a) those looking for high quality space is on the head lease side. Landlords are completing show are faced with few opportunities, especially in the sublease suites as well to try and appeal to users who are willing to market, and b) most of the demand in the market the last move into low-mid quality buildings, but are after an upgrade number of years has been in this size range so the low in their premises. There is a lot of activity and leasing, but hanging fruit has been picked. it’s generally a game of “musical chairs” as there is limited growth, and in some cases net contraction, associated with To put more meat on the bone for tenants of this size, most transactions happening. there are a grand total of 24 subleases available in the market (only eight of which are in the Class AA/A sector). 10,001 – 20,000 square feet By contrast, there are 313 head lease opportunities in this (Companies between ~40 – 80 people) size range. Lopsided, to say the least, and 77% of the head leases are located in B and C Class buildings where (not Total # of Vacancies 10,001-20,000 sf surprisingly) the most aggressive deals in this size range can 80 be achieved. To help encourage activity, many landlords, 60 particularly in the A and B Class markets, are completing “show suites” on some of their more problematic vacancies, 40 as demand for these remains high and as such they don’t 20 last long. We expect this trend to continue into the next couple of years given tenants love the new office smell and - AA A B C landlords can move product they many not otherwise be Headlease Sublease able to. 5,001 – 10,000 square feet This segment of the market has almost as many vacancies (Companies between ~20 – 40 people): as 5,000 – 10,000 sf (172 total), but there is a drastic drop in active tenants of this size range given; a) there are fewer Total # of Vacancies 5,001-10,000 sf 80 of them and b) the lead times associated with their real estate processes are longer (call it 6-12 months in advance 60 of their natural expiry dates). This size range, along with 40 the next segment we will dive into (being 20,001 – 50,000 sf) is the choice sector of the market for tenants.
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