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Calgary Office Market Report

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First Quarter 2019 / Office Market Report Calgary Quick Stats Calgary office market sees best to slightly positive results are being seen. positive absorption trend in over Calgary remains set back from the strong three years economy seen prior to 2015, but the market 22.6% doesn’t appear to be getting any worse for Calgary Overall Vacancy Stability and even a bit of improvement over the time being. last year. As of first quarter 2019 the overall Calgary’s overall employment has fully Calgary office market has recorded is third recovered from the losses incurred over consecutive quarter of positive absorption, the course of the downturn. In May 2015 25.3% something the market hasn’t seen since Calgary’s employment peaked at 826,000 Downtown Vacancy 2014. This positive trend carried through to people before beginning its downward the Downtown office market, which also slide through the downturn. As of February saw its third consecutive quarter of positive 2019, Calgary’s employment is 849,300 absorption, a trend not seen in that market 19.5% people, a new peak value and 23,300 people segment in seven years. The last time this Beltline Vacancy above that pre-downturn peak. In terms type of trend was seen in the Downtown of the unemployment rate, recovery does market was the first three quarters of not occur in a straight line, but the general 2012, seven years ago, when the market trend for the last year has been pretty flat. was finishing a run of twelve consecutive 17.1% The unemployment rate for February 2019 quarters of positive absorption. Suburban North Vacancy increased to 7.6%, from 7.3% in January Often considered a solid indicator of 2019, but is down from 7.8% 12 months business confidence in Calgary, the Annual ago in January 2018. The main reason for 18.7% Calgary Stampede Rangeland Derby Tarp the unemployment rate not decreasing Auction was held on March 21st. The 2019 as employment rises, is that more people Suburban South Vacancy total was $3.285 million, up just slightly from are entering the labour force than there the 2018 total of $3.243 million. Just as with are jobs being created. Additionally, those the office vacancy levels in the city, stable jobs being created are not office-based continued on page 3 Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Calgary First Quarter / Office Market Report QUARTERLY UNDER QUARTERLY AVERAGE VACANCY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION NEW SUPPLY ASKING NET (SF) (SF) (SF) RENTAL RATES (SF) Q1 2019: 25.3% 28,000 0 460,000 $4 - $36 Downtown Q1 2018: 25.6% 169,000 460,000 0 $4 - $36 Q1 2017: 23.9% 3,000 1,860,000 0 $4 - $36 Q1 2019: 19.5% -12,000 0 0 $5 - $24 Beltline Q1 2018: 18.5% -29,000 28,000 36,000 $5 - $26 Q1 2017: 16.4% -48,000 66,000 0 $6 - $30 Q1 2019: 17.1% 76,000 0 0 $6 - $26 Suburban North Q1 2018: 17.7% -22,000 181,000 0 $6 - $30 Q1 2017: 19.0% -322,000 273,000 0 $8 - $28 Q1 2019: 18.7% 48,000 138,000 0 $6 - $29 Suburban South Q1 2018: 21.8% 93,000 31,000 0 $6 - $30 Q1 2017: 24.3% 51,000 231,000 0 $10 - $30 Q1 2019: 22.6% 140,000 138,000 460,000 Overall Q1 2018: 23.2% 212,000 700,000 36,000 Q1 2017: 22.5% -317,000 2,430,000 0 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT (PEOPLE) LABOUR FORCE (PEOPLE 15 +) 9.4% (February 2017) 818,600 (February 2017) 903,500 (February 2017) 8.0% (February 2018) 843,000 (February 2018) 916,400 (February 2018) 7.6% (February 2019) 849,300 (February 2019) 918,900 (February 2019) Source: Statistics Canada WTI SPOT PRICE ($US/BARREL) WCS SPOT PRICE ($US/BARREL) DIFFERENTIAL ($US/BARREL) $11.93 $62.01 (March 17, 2017) $36.41 (March 17, 2017) (March 17, 2017) $48.34 (March 19, 2018) $35.13 (March 19, 2018) $26.88 (March 19, 2018) $59.09 (March 18, 2019) $49.33 (March 18, 2019) $9.76 (March 18, 2019) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg GDP GROWTH FORECAST CANADA-US EXCHANGE RATE FLAMES STANDINGS 2.0% (2017) (March 21, 2017) 41 28 4 (March 21, 2017) (2018) (March 22, 2018) (March 22, 2018) 4.4% 2.3% 35 30 10 (2019) (March 21, 2019) (March 21, 2019) $0.7485 $0.7747 $0.7482 46 21loss 7 win OTL Source: Conference Board of Canada, Bank of Canada, Wikipedia Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com 3 will beslow. leasing activity inthefirst halfof2019 It policy. that isanticipated resulting thepoliticalspectrum to and will result looking seeingwhatchanges forward to happen in2019,somecompaniesare election setto andfederal provincial botha With office spacedecisions. regarding approach a wait-and-see taking companiesare many Right now, full). pipelinesare (existing transportation limited to capabilities the inability accessmarkets to due WTIWCS and wasUS$59.09perbarrel 18,2019, ofMarch As the program. hasstartedgovernment easingoffof beennoticedandthe benefits have Intermediate (WTI). such,short As term Texas West from itreceives differential the reducing has seenimprovement, Select Canadian (WCS)Western for atthestart effect into of2019,theprice production curtailment went program oil Since theAlberta Government’s support services industry sectors. and manufacturing, andadministrative in thetransportation andwarehousing, incurred have jobincreases significant most The 2016. agoinNovember years two over of 10.3%whichwasrecorded rate thepeakunemployment is below 2014,but inNovember 4.4% recorded of thelow distantfrom remains rate downturn. Calgary’s unemployment the sametypes ofjobslostduring the replaced andhaven’t employment page1 continued from Calgary | Partnership. Performance. OVERALL OFFICE OFFICE OVERALL 22.6% VACANCY RATE VACANCY result of oversupply and and ofoversupply result was US$49.33 per was US$49.33per differential is a direct isadirect differential barrel, resulting in in resulting barrel, barrel. The The barrel. price below US$10 per US$10per below just a differential Calgary Overall WTI Spot Price ($/BBL) been market, somethingthathasn’t Calgary theoverall absorption office for quarter consecutive the third ofpositive (sf) feet square is This beingabsorbed. the firstquarter of2019,with140,000 market in bepositive continuedto Calgary theoverall Absorption office for ago. 65%two years from ashift incomparison availability, overall 75%ofCalgary’s which represents thelandlord), directlyfrom available asheadleasespace(space available (msf) feet 13.1millionsquare currently Calgary entire officemarket, is there the ago infirstquarter 2018.Across 12months 23.2%recorded from is down 22.3%infourth from quarter 2018,and 22.5% during thefirstquarter of2019 vacancy to overall increased The rate $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 1 1 1 1 ABSORPTION $ 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (DEMAND) Jan 02, 2007 May 02, 2007 Sep 02, 2007 Jan 02, 2008 2019 Stampede Chuckwagon Canvas Auction vs 2019 StampedeChuckwagon Auction vs Canvas May 02, 2008 Sep 02, 2008 P r VACANCY (SUPPLY) Jan 02, 2009 i c e WTI DailySpotPrice May 02, 2009 Sep 02, 2009 o f Jan 02, 2010 West Texas Intermediate (WTI)Texas West O May 02, 2010 i l Sep 02, 2010 v W Jan 02, 2011 s T RENTAL I R RATES S May 02, 2011 p a o n t Sep 02, 2011 P g r i c Jan 02, 2012 e May 02, 2012 e l Sep 02, 2012 a n Jan 02, 2013 d R a D May 02, 2013 C S n o o g u m e e Sep 02, 2013 r c p l Rangeland Auction Derby Canvas a e r i l further broken down within the specific further withinthe specific brokendown numbersare These $14.43psf. average andclassCbuildings $16.38psf, average classBbuildings $17.89psf, average classAbuildings $23.34psf, average ClassAAbuildings city. theentire across (psf) foot square allbuildingclasses, for $17.09per and operatingcostsaverage taxes Quoted thetimebeing. stable for askingremaining are Average rents 2019. absorption negative infirstquarter while theBeltline officesubmarket saw absorption positive infirstquarter 2019 Suburban North officemarkets saw Suburbanthe Downton, South and seen sincetheendof2014.Each markets have seen slight increases in in markets seenslightincreases have downturn, whilethesuburban office office market thecourseof over intheDowntown been decreasing assessmentshave Average divergence. officeproperties seeinga for are It isimportant thatassessments note to ofcity area sections inthisreport. later n : e b U d Jan 02, 2014 d . S D b y . y e May 02, 2014 E : First Quarter /OfficeFirst Market Report n r A T b e v y Sep 02, 2014 r i a g s C y o r a n Jan 02, 2015 I n n p Y f v o o a r u May 02, 2015 m s A n A a g t u Sep 02, 2015 u i o c n t c i o Jan 02, 2016 A n d t m May 02, 2016 i o i n i s Sep 02, 2016 n t r a t i Jan 02, 2017 T o n o , May 02, 2017 C t a avisonyoung.com l a Sep 02, 2017 g a l r y Jan 02, 2018 S t a May 02, 2018 m p e Sep 02, 2018 d e Jan 02, 2019 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 0 0 , , , , , , , , 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 , , , , , , , , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rangeland Derby Tarp Auction Total Calgary First Quarter / Office Market Report continued from page 3 average assessments. It will be worth combined with the high vacancy rate Overall Calgary Office Vacancy watching The City of Calgary work is continuing to pressure landlords Rates through their tax review as there has to make some tough decisions about been dialogue about the consequences repositioning their buildings.
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