Journal of Food Security, 2019, Vol. 7, No. 5, 159-169 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/jfs/7/5/2 Published by Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/jfs-7-5-2

Food Security in the Countries: Challenges and Prospects

Tarek Ben Hassen1,*, Hamid El Bilali2

1Department of International Affairs, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar 2International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM-Bari), Valenzano (Bari), Italy *Corresponding author: [email protected] Received August 06, 2019; Revised September 10, 2019; Accepted September 15, 2019 Abstract Food insecurity concerns are as old as humanity. Food security exists when all population, at all times, has access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. It is built on four pillars, namely food availability, food access, food utilisation, and stability. While it is widely admitted that food security increases with economic development, also rich countries in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, face specific challenges. Therefore, this review paper analyses the state, determinants and perspectives of food security in GCC region. Historically, food security was not an issue for the GCC states. In fact, GCC states are capital rich and have no foreign exchange limitation for food import. Consequently, due to their robust fiscal position resulting in high buying power, these countries, have been less vulnerable to price risk than other food importers; and able to bridge the shortfall in domestic production. As a result, in 2018, the six GCC members have been ranked as the most food secure in the Arab world and among the most food secure countries in the world. However, in the wake of the 2007–2008 global food crisis, food security became an ongoing challenge. The crisis exposed the high dependence of GCC countries on imports, limits of import-based food policies and the need to increase the local production. However, agriculture is limited by several natural conditions, such as scarce water resources and poor soils, and aquifers have been heavily exploited above the average natural recharge. Further, potentially, more critical to GCC food security is availability risk, which arises when an import-dependent country is not able to obtain food, even if it has sufficient funds to purchase it. The paper makes the case for promoting a productive and sustainable agriculture, with high resources use efficiency, to increase food security in the GCC. Keywords: food security, water security, food self-sufficiency, sustainable agriculture, GCC Cite This Article: Tarek Ben Hassen, and Hamid El Bilali, “Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Challenges and Prospects.” Journal of Food Security, vol. 7, no. 5 (2019): 159-169. doi: 10.12691/jfs-7-5-2.

Indeed, it is increasingly recognised that attaining food security is more complicated than just producing more 1. Introduction food, as the fundamental issue concerns access to nutritious and safe food [9-13]. The 1996 World Food The great challenge for the coming decades will be the Summit definition of food security is still widely used [14]. task of increasing food production to ensure food security It was officially reaffirmed in the 2009 Declaration of for a world population of 7.6 billion people, and expected the World Summit on Food Security [15,16], with the to be 9 million by 2050. Achieving a world without addition of social access to food: “Food security exists hunger and malnutrition is one of the aims of the 2030 when all people, at all times, have physical, social and Agenda for Sustainable Development. In fact, ensuring economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food for all meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an (Target 2.1) and eliminating all forms of malnutrition active and healthy life” [15]. Food security is built on (Target 2.2) are prominent targets of the second four pillars [4,17,18,19]: food availability (i.e. sufficient Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the 2030 Agenda quantities of food available on a consistent basis); (i.e. End hunger, achieve food security and improved food access (i.e. having sufficient resources to obtain nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture). Moreover, appropriate and nutritious foods); food use/utilisation (i.e. the achievement of SDG2 depends on and contributes to appropriate food use based on knowledge of basic the attainment of many other goals of the 2030 Agenda nutrition and care); and stability in food availability, and sustainable development as a whole [2]. access and utilization [20]. Food security concept has evolved and been expanded A recent report on the State of Food Security and over recent decades [3-8] with a change of focus from Nutrition in the World [2] shows that the number of increasing food production to improving food access. undernourished people has been growing and was

160 Journal of Food Security estimated to nearly 821 million in 2017 (17 million more vulnerable to price risk (i.e., the risk that food is available than in 2016), so around one out of every nine people in for import but the importing country may not be able to the world. The situation is worsening in South America afford to purchase a sufficient amount for its residents) and most of Africa. Conflicts and climate change are than other food importers; and able to bridge the shortfall among the key drivers behind the recent uptick in global in domestic production [25]. As a result, in 2018, the six hunger. Indeed, climate change threatens to erode and GCC members have been ranked as the most food secure reverse gains made in ending hunger and malnutrition. in the Arab world and among the most food secure Moreover, food insecurity contributes to overweight and countries in the world in the Global Food Security Index obesity and the three burdens of malnutrition (undernutrition, [26] 1 (Table 1). overweight/obesity and micronutrient deficiencies) coexist in many countries. Table 1. Ranking of the GCC countries in the Global Food security Index, 2018 Food insecurity and malnutrition are still relevant issues in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region [21]. In Country Global Rank Rank in the Arab world their discussion paper on “Food Security and Economic Qatar 22 1 Development in the and North Africa”, Kuwait 28 2 Breisinger et al. [22] put that “…the region’s longstanding challenges persist; yet taking immediate action is more Oman 29 3 urgent in light of the recent, global food, fuel, and UAE 31 4 financial crisis and projected severe impacts of climate 32 5 change”. While it is widely admitted that food insecurity decreases with economic development, also rich countries 41 6 in the region such as the Gulf Cooperation Council – GCC Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit [26]. – countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates - UAE) face specific However, GCC countries are food secure but not food challenges for achieving long-term, sustainable food self-sufficient. It is therefore clear that food security “does security. Therefore, the present review paper analyses the not equal self-sufficiency” [22]. Despite their wealth and state, determinants and perspectives of food security in affluence, these countries lack control over their food GCC not only in a changing climate but also unstable sources and are highly dependent on imports—thus lack global geopolitical context. food sovereignty [27]. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a group of six In fact, in the wake of the 2007–2008 global food crisis, Arab Middle East countries bordering the Gulf, covering food security became an ongoing challenge. Food security an area of 2,672,700 sq.km and with a total population of assumes particular political significance in the GCC approximately 56.65 million and combined GDP of for numerous reasons [28]. As highlighted by Lippman US$1.537trn in 2018. Enormous hydrocarbons reserves [29] “no product or commodity carries the immediacy (30% of the proven oil reserves and 22.2% of the proven or political sensitivity of food”. Since the GCC natural gas reserves of the world) compared with a modest countries rely heavily on food imports, which make them national populations, have made the region one of the vulnerable to price and supply shocks, the stability and wealthiest in the world. Oil, natural gas revenues and the availability dimensions of food security are petrochemical industries still form the main part of the critical issues. Three elements contribute to food national income and government revenues in GCC availability: domestic food production, distribution, and countries. GCC countries face numerous environmental food import [30]. Assessing food availability determines challenges and will have to reconcile the many conflicting food security. This assessment is particularly important priorities from economic diversification, water scarcity, for GCC countries, which are highly dependent on food security, desertification, environmental protection, food imports. Nevertheless, a country that has low and conservation to the impacts of climate change [23]. self-sufficiency and is highly dependent on food imports This paper is based mainly on secondary data from written can still be food secure as long as it is able to finance documents, governmental reports, websites, newspapers its food imports [27]. The 2007–2008 global food crisis articles, and reports from different sources such as the has exposed the high dependence of GCC states FAO; UNEP; United Nations System High Level Task on imports and the lack of clear food security policies. Force on Global Food Security (UN-HLTF); IFAD; The food crisis of 2007-2008 raised awareness of OECD, WFP; associated with a review of peer-reviewed the supply and price risks associated with a dependence on scientific literature dealing with food production, food the world market [31]. security and agricultural production in the GCC countries. As a matter of fact, the 2007–2008 food price crisis had acted as a wake-up call for the GCC countries regarding their vulnerability to food price and it will continue to 2. Food Security in GCC: A Critical have an impact over the next decade. During the 2007–08 Political Issue global food price crisis over 30 countries imposed export restrictions like , Russia, India, and Vietnam Historically, food security was not an issue for the GCC [28]. This had an immense psychological impact. “Gulf states. In fact, GCC states are capital rich and have no countries now face the specter that someday they might foreign exchange limitation for food import [24]. Consequently, due to their robust fiscal position resulting 1 The Global Food Security Index considers the core issues of in high buying power, these countries, have been less affordability, availability, and quality across a set of 113 countries.

Journal of Food Security 161 not be able to secure enough food imports at any price Table 2. GCC food import (USD billion) even if their pockets are lined with petrodollars. This has 2020 2011 2015 reinforced the impression that food security is too (estimate) important to be left to markets.” [32]. The region as a Bahrain 0.8 1.1 1.6 whole lacks adequate control over, and access to, its food Kuwait 2.5 3.6 5.3 sources and this dependency on external supply channels Oman 2.1 3.3 4.8 has been locally articulated as a lack of food sovereignty Qatar 1.3 2.1 3.3 [27]. The perception of Gulf countries is that their food Saudi Arabia 17.9 24.5 35.2 security is threatened [32]. Further, the main consequence of the 2007–2008 global food crisis is inflation. The UAE 3.8 5.5 8.4 increase in food prices after the 2007–2008 global food GCC Total 28.4 36.4 53.1 crisis has put significant inflationary pressure on the GCC Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit [39]. economies with consumer prices reaching double digits during 2008–09 [33]. Food price rises in the GCC thus contribute significantly to overall inflation. As a result of 3. Food Production in GCC: the food crisis, the GCC have witnessed an accelerated inflation rates for three years (2005-2007). About one Limiting Natural Factors third of GCC inflation during this period is imported Historically, food production was limited and based due to high food prices [34]. This inflation threats mostly on fishing, Bedouin animal husbandry, date the political stability of the region. In fact, food inflation farming and small-scale vegetable production. Since the can be the source of significant social unrest, as it GCC are located in one of the world’s most arid regions, hits lower income groups especially hard because where the climate is classified as a hot desert climate they have to spend a relatively high share of their (BWh) under the Köppen climate classification [40], disposable income on food [35]. Record-high world domestic food production has been constrained by food prices triggered protest and violent rioting in unfavorable agro-ecological conditions, such as scarce 48 countries in 2007/08 [36]. Riots of this sort have not water resources, high temperatures and poor soils. been reported in the Gulf, but there has been criticism Actually, only 19.5% of the total land area of the GCC [37]. In addition, access to affordable food is an important region, is agricultural land 3 (cropland and pastures), part of the social contract in the GCC countries [32]. while only 1% is arable (cropland) (Table 3) [41], Higher prices could lead to a greater demand for a say in which is much lower than the global average of 10.6%4 politics if the government should fail to mitigate the and lower than some countries: 16.6% in the USA, impact of food price inflation [35]. For example, in a rare 24.9 % in the United Kingdom, 12.7% in China and sign of political opposition, in 2007, a group of Saudi 52.6% in India. Furthermore, with progressive salinization Arabia Muslim clerics has issued a rare warning to and desertification processes in the entire GCC region, the the ruling government that it must take action to amount of arable land is projected to decrease even further curb rising inflation and warned that inflation could [42]. “have a negative impact on all levels, causing theft, cheating, armed robbery and resentment between rich Table 3. Indicators of land and water resources in the GCC and poor.”2 In fact, GCC populations are not uniformly

) ) wealthy: the poorest 10 per cent or so may spend 3 3

30–50 per cent of their income on food – a rate more typical of a developing country [37]. Reports indicate land, Annual internal internal of total land land of total resources freshwater freshwater freshwater freshwater around 20 per cent of the population in Saudi Arabia live Renewable (billion m (billion (billion m (billion area (2014) area area (2016) area withdrawals Agricultural Arable land, % on less than $12,000 a year [38]. Price risk constitutes a land total of % major threat to the food security of these households, Bahrain 11 2.1 0.0040 0.3574 especially in smaller Gulf States such as Qatar and Kuwait, where the blue collar expatriate workforce forms a Kuwait 9 0.4 0.0 0.9 majority of the population and this could develop into a Oman 5 0.2 1.40 1.32 serious issue [35]. Qatar 6 1.2 0.06 0.44 In the future, growing population, rising income levels Saudi Arabia 81 1.6 2 24 and change in consumption habits result in continuing growth in consumption levels in the GCC countries. Per UAE 5 0.6 0.15 4.00 capita consumption in the region is low compared to that GCC average 19.5 1% in developed economies and is expected to increase at a Source: OECD and FAO [41]. relatively higher rate [33]. In 2018, the total population of the GCC region was 56.65 million from 41.7 million in 2010 and 25.8 million in 2005 and is likely to increase 3 Agricultural land refers to the share of land area that is arable, under further in future. Meanwhile, GCC food import demand is permanent crops, and under permanent pastures. Land under permanent forecast to hit $53.1 billion by 2020, up from US$28.4 crops is land cultivated with crops that occupy the land for long periods and need not be replanted after each harvest. Arable land refers to land billion in 2011 (Table 2) [39]. under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. 2 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/2821312/Clerics-tell- http://www.fao.org/faoterm/viewentry/en/?entryId=162552. Saudi-rulers-to-curb-inflation.html 4 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.ZS

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In addition, the majority of soils in the GCC countries As a result, this lack of freshwater is an obvious are fragile, sandy, poorly developed; and low in organic constraint to development of conventional agriculture in matter and water retention capacity [43,44,45] (Box 1), this region [51] and GCC states do not have a comparative and over 95 per cent of land on the Arabian peninsula is advantage in field crop production. High maximum subject to some form of desertification [28]. temperatures limit yields for many crops, while rainfall is well below that required for rain-fed cereal production [28] Box 1. Soil types in Kuwait (e.g. wheat requires around 600–650 mm per year in hot Soils in Kuwait are sandy and poorly developed, low in climates) [52]. organic matter and water retention capacity, high level of In the future, in the GCC, the climate change through salts and poor soil forming reaction. Aridsols (70.8 %) and rise in temperature, decline in rainfall and increase in Entisols (29.2 %) are the main soil orders of Kuwait [43]. evapotranspiration will further affect agriculture and food The top horizon of the soil has sandy or sandy loam production in an already exceedingly dry area [24]. texture since these soils are developed mostly from Climate change projections expect the entire region to whitish calcareous sandstones or gravelly sand that is become hotter and drier in the future, with a reduction of cemented with lime. A hard pan layer locally known as precipitation [53] (Table 5). The analysis cautions that the “gatch” is found at various depths, which restricts root dual drivers of climate change and population growth will penetration and deep-water percolation leading to the combine to put further stress on scarce water resources formation of local water tables. Filtration rate of the desert and affect food security [42]. For example, climate change soil is normally very high ranging from 15 to 100 cm h- is expected to reduce frequencies of winter low [44,45]. temperatures, which affect production of certain traditional fruit trees in ancient cropping systems, mostly in the high-mountain region in Oman [54]. However, the main issue regarding agriculture in the GCC is water. Food and water are inextricably linked [46]. Table 5. Climate change impact on farming systems in the GCC Water security is often framed as a component or subset of region food security [47,48,49]. Due to the hot climate, coupled Exposure: Expected 5 Farming Sensitivity: Likely impact on with low rainfall and high evaporation rates (greater than climate change-related system farming systems 3,000 mm/year), water is an extremely scarce resource in events the GCC. Further, surface water is almost nonexistent [40]. More water stress The GCC region is the poorest region in the world in Increased demand for irrigation Increased temperatures water resources, in absolute and per capita terms, mainly and water transfer Reduced supply of caused by the region’s arid climate and the high Reduced yields when Irrigated surface irrigation water population growth [50]. With regards to rainfall, in 2014, temperatures are too high Dwindling of Salinisation due to reduced all of the GCC countries were listed among the 15 groundwater recharge countries receiving the least amount of rainfall globally leaching [21]. In fact, the GCC have one of the lowest per capita Reduction in cropping intensity freshwater availability in the world6, estimated in 2017, at A very vulnerable system, Increase in aridity 82.55 m3 compared to a world average of about 6,500 m3. where desertification may Greater risk of drought reduce carrying capacity All the GCC countries are considered in absolute water Pastoral Reduced water for significantly scarcity situation, defined as less than 500 m3 per capita livestock and fodder Non-farm activities, exit from per annum of renewable water resources (Table 4)7. farming

Table 4. Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita in GCC Source: Bucchignani et al. [53]. Countries in 2017 2007 2012 2017 Bahrain 112 89.23 77.7 4. Food Production in GCC: Unsuccessful Kuwait 7.99 5.889 4.83 Past Experiences Oman 525.7 404 302 Qatar 48.74 27.49 21.98 Since the 1970 and following the US threat of a food Saudi Arabia 95.04 82.51 72.86 embargo against OPEC countries in response to the first UAE 24.82 16.85 15.96 oil price shock [28], GCC states adopted several policies

8 to increase the local food production to realize the highest Source: Aquastat . possible level of self-sufficiency. Despite some success to increase food production, especially in the case of Saudi 5 In the GCC, the annual precipitation (P) is less than two thirds of the Arabia, those policies result on serious environmental potential evapotranspiration-PET (evaporation from soil plus damages (Box 2). Due to low rainfall, attempts to increase transpiration by plants) [24]. local production was based on irrigation and have resulted 6 Total per-capita internally available renewable water is defined as “the in heavy depletion of the non-renewable water resources. sum of internal renewable water resources and external actual renewable water resources”. Since the 1970, GCC governments provided generous 7 To provide water for their populations despite low levels of freshwater subsidies to ensure future food supplies [39], resulting in resources, GCC countries rely on desalination. Desalination provides the expansion of food production. Artificially cheap water majority of potable water (more than 70%), and a large percentage of has enabled the development of water-intensive crops total water usage including industry, irrigation, municipal drinking water, and other uses [25]. (E.g. wheat in Saudi Arabia) in a region that has no 8 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang=en. natural advantage in producing these crops [55,56,57].

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Box 2. Rangeland deterioration in Saudi Arabia percent in Kuwait [50]. In average, in the GCC, 85% of Today, rangelands throughout Saudi Arabia are declining water is used for agriculture. According to FAO [58], in both condition and productivity. The political, economic countries are in a critical condition if they use more than and cultural evolution which have occurred in Saudi 40 percent of their renewable water resources for agriculture Arabia over the last half of the 20th century have upset the and could be defined as water-stressed if they extract more balance between the nomadic people and the desert than 20 percent of these resources. Based on this definition environment. For centuries, the nomadic people have GCC countries could be defined as water-stressed, because developed a sustainable use through regulations to control their current abstraction rates from their renewable water rangeland use (Hema system). However, in 1953 the resources for agriculture greatly overshoot the defined government abolished the old nomadic hema system limits (Table 7). leading to open access to all rangelands, thus uncontrolled Table 7. Pressure on water resources: water withdrawal and use in livestock grazing [55]. In the 1970, the Saudi government agriculture gave agriculture a high priority in order to increase the Agriculture Agriculture local food production to realize self-sufficiency. From the Total Water share of total share of total Withdrawals mid-1970s into the 1990s, Saudi agriculture was booming, withdrawals renewable water (Million ³) reaching its peak of production in 1993 [56]. From 1980 * (%) resources (%) to 1985, the agricultural sector grew at an astonishing rate, Bahrain 357.4 44.54 137.2 at an average of eight percent annually [55]. Using oil Kuwait 913.2 53.87 2460 revenues, the government established generous subsidies Oman 1321 88.42 83.43 and interest-free credit to facilitate this growth. Lands Qatar 444 59.01 451.7 were distributed free to citizens to cultivate [57]. Within Saudi Arabia 23670 88 867.91 twenty years, farmland went from 150000 hectares in UAE 3998 82.84 2208 1975 to over 1.6 million hectares in 1995. To meet the GCC average 30703.6 85.41 629.15 enormous demand for red meat, the government instituted a program of financial incentives for sheep and camel Source: Sadik [50]. producers. This program encouraged flocks expansion and the total population of sheep in the country increased by Since 85% the water used in irrigation is groundwater, many folds, which put pressure on rangelands. In 1980, aquifers have been heavily exploited above the average the government replaced the financial incentive program natural recharge, thus increasing water and soil salinity. by a grain subsidy program. Likewise, high subsidies for For instance, in 2016, in Qatar, the groundwater consumption 3 feed grain resulted in livestock population densities many rate (319 million m /year) was higher than the recharge 3 times higher than the carrying capacity of the land. Rangeland rate from natural renewable resources (217 million m /year), 3 conversion into agriculture area or farmland is another which represents a yearly depletion rate of 102 million m /year cause of the present poor status of the rangelands [55]. [59]. Using groundwater resources beyond their natural replenishment rates is rapidly depleting aquifer reserves, Further, agriculture is based mostly on open field that had taken millions of years to accumulate and degrading irrigation methods with a low water use efficiency water quality due to seawater intrusion [60], which is a (WUE)9 resulting in high losses from evaporation. The common issue in the GCC region. In many cases, average efficiency ratio in the GCC is 54.80% compared overexploitation of the limited natural resources (water to 76.46% in and 71.69% in Tunisia (Table 6). and land) has hazardous effects due mostly to inadequate policies and interventions [61,62] (Box 3). Table 6. Irrigation efficiency ratio in the GCC in 2014 Box 3. The socio-economic and environmental cost of Dammam Irrigation Water aquifer overexploitation in Bahrain Water Withdrawal for Efficiency

Requirement, Agriculture, Ratio (%) Groundwater in the Dammam aquifer is the only natural 3 3 Million m /Yr Million m /Yr source of freshwater in Bahrain. Since the early 1970, Bahrain 40 159 25.16 rapid population growth urbanization and expansion of Kuwait 119 492 24.19 irrigated agriculture, boosted water demand. As a result, Oman 721 1,168 61.73 the Dammam aquifer has been heavily exploited above the Qatar 76 262 29.01 average natural recharge, thus increasing water salinity Saudi Arabia 11,599 20,830 55.68 due to seawater intrusion. In addition, this overexploitation UAE 1,815 3,312 54.80 increased soil salinity and results on socio-economic and GCC average 14,370 26,223 54.80 environments problems. As groundwater used for irrigation Source: Sadik [50]. has became more saline, soil become less productive, which have eventually lead to a loss of cultivable land and Immense pressure has been exerted on the scarce water forced the abandonment of traditional agricultural areas. resources, including non-renewable fossil groundwater, as Cultivated area dropped from about 65 square kilometers reflected in the high rates of water withdrawals for to 41 square kilometers in the late 1970s. Groundwater agriculture, averaging about 630 percent of total renewable depletion has also damaged wetlands and biodiversity. water resources in GCC countries, reaching about 2,460 The drying of all natural springs and their surrounding environments has destroyed wildlife habitats, eliminated animal species and compromised the ecosystem and its 9 The ratio between effective water use and actual water withdrawal. It tourism investment potential [60,61,62]. characterizes, in a specific process, how effective is the use of water.

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Meanwhile, agriculture water consumption is climate-related yield shocks in 2030. As a result, disproportionate to the value created by the sector. Despite agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain the government support to increase local agriculture volatile in the future, which could result in export production through financial assistance and subsidies, the restrictions and speculation [67]. contribution of agriculture to total economic added-value Secondly, in the future, international markets are expected or the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is quite negligible, to remain tight and thin as production growth lags demand around 0.8% on average (less than 1 % in Bahrain, Qatar, and stock-to-use ratios struggle to recover, leaving global Kuwait and UAE; 1.3 % and 1.9 % in Oman and Saudi supply vulnerable to destabilizing weather events such as Arabia respectively) [63]; e.g. in Qatar, the agricultural droughts or heat-waves in key producer regions. Volatility sector consumes 40% of total water resources and the will be further amplified by biofuel mandates, which limit production meets only 10% of the national food demand. exports of food commodities, create inelastic demand and In addition, the agricultural sector contribution to GDP is depress stock-to-use ratios further [28]. “Expert opinion only 0.13% and it employs 1.3% of the labor force [64]. suggests that this will continue to be the case as the factors that led to elevated costs in the first place have not been adequately dealt with. Bio-fuel production programs 5. Food Security in GCC: Limits and continue to be encouraged in major grain-producing Drawbacks of Import-based Food countries; global grain reserves have not been sufficiently enhanced in the intervening years; and food supplies Policies have not kept pace with the increasing demands arising out of higher per capita incomes and changing In order to bridge the gap between food production and consumption patterns in certain parts of the developing food consumption, the GCC states rely heavily on food world.” [27]. Consequently, observers uniformly agree imports. These countries remain largely net importers of that given its heavy reliance on external food supplies, the food, especially with respect to cereals, the main staple GCC and the Middle East in general are particularly food commodity in the region (Table 8). susceptible to fluctuations in both price and availability of global food stocks [27]. GCC countries are highly Table 8. Food self-sufficiency ratio in GCC countries vulnerable to fluctuations in international commodity Total Food (%) Cereals (%) markets and supply risks, such as the one that occurred in 2005 2012 2005 2014 2007-2008, because they are highly dependent on food Bahrain 12.96 14.6 0.00 0.00 imports. Kuwait 28.38 15.6 3.88 3.84 In fact, potentially more critical to GCC food security is Oman 45.21 32.5 1.17 2.30 availability risk, which arises when an import-dependent Qatar 12.18 9.6 3.12 0.42 country is not able to obtain food, even if it has Saudi Arabia 44.52 30.1 26.75 4.58 sufficient funds to purchase it [25]. “A number of Gulf UAE 21.13 21.2 0.85 2.05 countries were on the market for food at a time when GCC average 37.40 26.5 20.25 2.19% prices had gone up, and some exporting countries had put up export bans, especially for rice—creating a Source: Compiled by the authors from FAOSTAT data. nervousness that even if they could afford it, they couldn’t Even food products made locally rely heavily on get it.” [39]. foreign imports. In fact, in certain cases – the growing Box 4. The GCC, strategic choke points [28] dairy industry in Saudi Arabia, for example – it is not clear that domestic production reduces a country’s Transiting Suez Canal dependence on food imports, since animal feed must be 7.5 million tons of wheat and coarse grains are shipped imported [25]. GCC food security rests on international from North America, South America and Europe, and 4.6 trade, leaving countries exposed to price risk (relating to million tons from the Black Sea. This represents 81% of volatility of import prices) and supply risk (relating to total imports of these commodities to the GCC. import disruption) [28]. Furthermore, the future of food Transiting Bab Al Mandab supply in this region is challenged by several factors. 5.8 million tons of imports of wheat and coarse grains Firstly, the impacts of climate change could significantly from North America, South America, Europe and the affect agriculture production through yield reductions [65]. Black Sea are shipped on from Suez to Kuwait, UAE, Climate change will also lead to an increase in the Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and eastern ports in Saudi Arabia. frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as This represents 39% of total imports of these commodities droughts, floods and heat-waves, increasing the risk of to the GCC. yield shocks in key producer countries and concomitant Transiting Strait of Hormuz price spikes [66]. For example, the International Centre 5.2 million tons of wheat and coarse grains from North for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) projects that crop yields America, South America, Europe and the Black Sea are will fall by more than 10% for a quarter of major crops by shipped on through the Strait of Hormuz to Kuwait, the 2030 and decline at similar rates for more than half of UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and eastern ports in Saudi Arabia. crops beyond 2050 10 . Willenbockel [66] estimates a This represents 35% of total imports of these commodities potential short-term price increase of up to 33% for to the GCC. wheat, 140% for corn and 26% for rice in response to 2.5 million tons of rice from South and Southeast Asia (81% of total rice imports).

10 https://ciat.cgiar.org/what-we-do/climate-smart-agriculture/ 0.7 million tons of wheat from Australia.

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Box 5. Dealing with Disruption: The Qatar Blockade 6.1. Foreign Agro-investments In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt cut off diplomatic relations with Qatar and impose an air, After the 2007-2008 food crises, GCC countries sea, and land blockade. Prior to the blockade, Saudi pursued a strategy of purchasing or leasing farmland Arabia and UAE accounted for 27.4% of Qatar’s total abroad with the aim of exporting at least some of the crops value of food products. Meanwhile, about 80% of Qatar’s produced there back to the purchasing country [25] in food imports passed through a neighboring country, with order to ensure privileged bilateral access to food 40% coming through the Saudi border and 60% of dairy production [32]. Since then, these countries acquired lands products imported by Qatar coming from Saudi Arabia in Africa and Australia, among other places, invest in and the UAE. In response to the blockade, Qatar has existing agricultural business and export the produce back adopted a range of strategies to ensure its food security: to the purchasing country, so that it can maintain control arranging alternative trading routes and food supply chain over the food supply chain. Today, GCC countries are the with new partners, most notably Iran, Oman, Turkey and biggest regional investors in agricultural land abroad [25]. ; and upgrading its ports to prepare for additional However, these investments are risky. Many of the land shipping with the expanding of the new Hamad port. The deals have been in parts of Africa already suffering from blockade showed the limits of import-based food policies food insecurity. From the point of view of the land-owned and the need to increase the local production in Qatar. country, exporting crops could worsen existing food Since then the Qatari agriculture sector has been under insecurity and poverty, and may cause political unrest. growing pressure to increase the local food production and Given persistent undernourishment for many in Africa, to realize the highest possible level of self-sufficiency. public perception and tolerance of foreign landholders on the continent may deteriorate, especially as African food Thirdly, one particularly salient factor contributing to imports themselves increase [25]. To preempt such availability risk for the GCC is the fact that the majority of criticism, Qatar for example, has put foreign agro-projects food imports passes through one of three maritime on hold until land rights issues have been sorted out in a chokepoints [25,28] (Box 4), especially for strategic mutually beneficial way. State-owned Hassad Food commodity such as wheat. In fact, GCC states are among announced that it would aim to invest in existing agro- the most exposed to potential food security risks caused companies rather than acquire land rights and building up by maritime chokepoints. Import routes are particularly farming operations from scratch. The Arab Authority for vulnerable to disruption or closure in the event of Agricultural Investment and Development chose a similar instability within the wider Middle East and North Africa approach when launching a $2 billion fund in October 2009 [32]. Another obstacle is the growing resistance of (MENA) region [28] (Box 5). local populations to the agro deals, due to food and water Furthermore, in recent years, in response to shortages of local residents, the transfer of the lands into a international sanctions, Iran has periodically threatened to commodity aimed at serving foreigners and the loss of close the Strait of Hormuz. Any conflict in the Hormuz lands that belonged to the farmers’ families for Strait will disrupt food shipments and would have a generations. What is considered as legitimate land devastating impact on GCC’s food security particularly acquisitions and agro-investments by the investors is for states that are entirely reliant on ports within the perceived as illegal land grabbing by the locals and as a : Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar [28]. While 80% sort of neo-colonialism [69]. In most parts of sub-Saharan or more of wheat imports to five of the six GCC countries Africa, acquiring sizeable farms has proved very difficult passed through at least one chokepoint, the likelihood of and controversial, in particular when the investment leads availability risk differs substantially across the countries. to community displacement from productive land [70]. With access to both the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, In addition, the countries targeted for investment face Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are less vulnerable to many challenges, among them underdeveloped infrastructure, import food disruption in case of conflict in Hormuz Strait corruption, political instability, as has been the case with than Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Sudan, and a lack of skilled labor [32]. Owing to the Qatar are the most vulnerable GCC countries to a chokepoint generally poor agricultural infrastructure in many target disruption. About 80% of Qatar’s wheat imports and destinations, and because few support services can be nearly all of Bahrain’s and Kuwait’s passed through the provided by local sub-contractors, the investor has to Strait of Hormuz, and there are no alternative maritime establish the entire system required for successful farm routes from the Arabian Sea to the Arabian Gulf [25,28]. operation: e.g. farm machinery cannot be rented, expatriate staff has to be recruited because management for large 6. Achieving Food Security in GCC States: farm operations cannot be hired locally, and processing facilities have to be established [70]. For example, in A Combination of Strategies is Needed Ethiopia, investors have encountered difficulty transporting agricultural machinery and skilled labor to the most According to FAO [68] “A food security strategy that remote areas of the landlocked country 11 . As a result, relies on a combination of increased productivity and numerous foreign agricultural land acquisitions have not general openness to trade will be more effective than a been as successful as predicted. For example, in Ethiopia, strategy that relies primarily on the closure of borders.” In only 35 per cent of the leased land has been developed and fact, faced with a high potential for import disruptions, the the Ethiopian government has cancelled seven leases after GCC may find it helpful to focus on four different sets of strategies. 11 https://ig.ft.com/sites/land-rush-investment/ethiopia/

166 Journal of Food Security investors failed to deliver on their promises12. In addition, self-sufficiency, it involves many potential risks [42]. the food commodity crash in the second half of 2008 Firstly, stockpiling is expensive due to the risk of spoilage reduced the urgency for agricultural investments [32]. [25], particularly due to post-harvest insect pests and grain Further, challenges exist even in countries and regions that pathogens and the need to cycle the stock periodically. are food secure such as [71] (Box 6). Secondly, ensuring safe grain storage requires technologies that leave no residues on the stored grain that may harm Box 6.Almarai agro-investment in California the consumer and demand environmental conditions such In 2015, Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Co, the largest dairy as low temperature and low oxygen, which will make it company in the Gulf, bought 1,700 acres (688 hectares) of energy intensive in the climates of the GCC states [42]. land in Blythe (California) to supply its business with Given the difficulties of domestic production, stockpiling alfalfa hay. Almarai, which already owns land in Arizona, will likely remain an important strategy for GCC countries said the purchase was part of efforts to secure high-quality in the future. Oman, for example, announced in 2018 hay from outside Saudi Arabia, in line with Saudi plans to develop an agricultural bulk terminal in Salalah government policy. In fact, Saudi Arabia is phasing out with a storage capacity of 60,000 tons of grain reserves, the growing of crops and fodder because of the strain such and handling equipment capable of handling 15,000 MT cultivation places on scarce water resources. The of grain per day; designed to serve as a trading hub for the cultivation of green fodder will end in 2019. Each month, region and to store grain for the country13. Almarai loads the alfalfa on to hulking metal shipping containers destined to arrive 24 days later. 6.3. Innovation in Agriculture: Towards Today, the company owns 15,000 acres – 16% of the Sustainable Food Production entire irrigated valley. However, the land is part of a region that has senior rights to Colorado River water. The third set of strategies – which will become critical The1877 water claim, now owned by the Palo Verde if multiple trade routes are simultaneously disrupted – is Irrigation District, ensures that Blythe has “unquantified to increase the potential for domestic production [25]. water rights for beneficial use”. The Palo Verde Irrigation However, as explained above, past GCC experience to District is not allowed to sell the water to farmers. Blythe increase local food production resulted in serious farmers are thus only charged to cover the water district’s environmental damages and heavy drainage of the non- overhead – $77 an acre a year. In Blythe, no matter how renewable water resources with little productive results. much he uses, a farmer gets his water for a cheap, flat rate. Consequently, there is, hence, a need for a transition Some local stakeholders have raised concerns that these towards sustainable food systems that ensure food and rights will allow Almarai to cultivate thirsty crops there nutrition security [72,73]. In fact, in arid and semi-arid despite periodic droughts in California. When Almarai countries, such as the Gulf region, where natural resources first began purchasing land in the western US, in 2015, are scarce, there is a need for strategies to produce more environmentalists, and many average citizens, were food with less land and water. GCC’s agriculture is based outraged. “Saudi Hay Farm in Arizona Tests State’s on traditional irrigation methods with a low use efficiency Supply of Groundwater,” said an NPR article in and aquifers have been heavily exploited above the November of 2015. “Saudi Arabia is Outsourcing average natural recharge. In this context, new technologies its Drought to California,” wrote Gizmodo [71]. and innovative practices such as hydroponics, greenhouses, modern irrigation systems (e.g. drip irrigation), and Finally, another issue related to foreign agro- appropriate crops that would suit the local climatic investments, is that they do not guarantee food security in conditions, can be used to increase the productivity and times of crisis. In case of food crises, there is the risk that the sustainability of agriculture systems [74,75], within a the host country may renege on a contract or restrict positive enabling environment supported by efficient exports. While the WTO outlaws curbs on industrial policies [76]. Hence, water shortage in GCC countries exports, it allows for agricultural export restrictions in the requires developing new technologies and methods of case of domestic food security concerns. It would be irrigation that can be helpful to utilize this precious input hardly conceivable to enforce delivery of food items from in an effective way [77]. In addition, there is also a need to distressed countries [32]. carry out practices of irrigation water management to achieve high water use efficiency and to increase the 6.2. Stockpiling productivity of existing water resources and also to produce more food with less water [78]. This necessitates Recognizing the unreliability of imports and in order to innovative and sustainable research and an appropriate be less susceptible to price fluctuations, since 2007-2008, transfer of technologies [79]. Further, another issue related GCC states invested in strategic reserves to ensure to agriculture innovation is the adoption and integration of supplies for domestic consumption. Stockpiling can new technologies (cf. innovations) into agricultural provide GCC governments with a degree of insurance production. Low adoption rates of new and potentially against price and supply risks [28]. In fact, stockpiling can beneficial agricultural technologies in many countries strengthen purchasing power by signaling to sellers that continues to contribute to food insecurity and low countries have alternative sources of supply, militating agricultural productivity [80]. Another solution related to against price gouging [28]. While stockpiling is a water is to increase the use of wastewater. Many GCC more efficient strategy than the pursuit of an alleged

13 https://www.omanobserver.om/new-agriculture-bulk-facility-set-up- 12 https://ig.ft.com/sites/land-rush-investment/ethiopia/ in-salalah/.

Journal of Food Security 167 countries use treated wastewater to irrigate certain types of food production is an opportunity for a systemic crops. While Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reuse about 50% of and holistic approach of innovation that considers the their total wastewater, Bahrain and Qatar only reuse several aspects of food production, including agricultural about 10-15%. Public perception and stigma represent a production, economic development, environmental considerable hurdle in expanding the use of this strategy sustainability, and institutions, taking into account at the [25]. same time all the elements, their interconnections and related effects. A more system-oriented understanding of 6.4. Reducing Food Waste how innovation occurs is critical to promoting dynamism in agriculture and, ultimately, to enhancing agri-food Ironically, another issue related to food security in the productivity and sustainability in GCC countries. GCC is food waste. 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