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Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council by Shira Efron, Charles Fromm, Bill Gelfeld, Shanthi Nataraj and Chase Sova

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Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council by Shira Efron, Charles Fromm, Bill Gelfeld, Shanthi Nataraj and Chase Sova Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council By Shira Efron, Charles Fromm, Bill Gelfeld, Shanthi Nataraj and Chase Sova December 2018 Image: Shazrul Edwan/Shutterstock Credits Authors: Shira Efron (RAND Corporation), Charles Fromm (emerge85), Bill Gelfeld (Pardee RAND Graduate School, Universidad San Francisco de Quito), Shanthi Nataraj (RAND Corporation), Chase Sova (independent consultant) Editing: Joseph Dana, Karla Green, Rick Twelves Design: K&i Production: Karla Green, Rick Twelves Funding: This project was conducted by a team of researchers from emerge85 and the RAND Corporation. emerge85 is dedicated to advancing innovative, The RAND Corporation is a research organization technology-driven solutions to the world’s most that develops solutions to public policy challenges pressing challenges. We identify opportunities, to help make communities throughout the world convene visionaries, and provide a platform for safer and more secure, healthier and more partners focused on inclusive growth. Funding for prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and this project was provided by The Delma Institute committed to the public interest. Within RAND, and the Johns Hopkins Paul H. Nitze School of this research was conducted by the Center for Advanced International Studies. Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP) and supported by philanthropic contributions. CMEPP brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across RAND to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. Visit www.rand.org/cmepp for more information. Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 2 Table of Contents Summary 5 1. Overview of Food Security in the GCC 7 1.1. Food-Energy-Water Index 7 1.2. Import Dependence 11 2. Food Security Strategies in the GCC 15 2.1. Strategies for Encouraging Domestic Agricultural Production 15 2.2. Strategies to Maintain a Supply of Food Imports 17 2.3. Dealing with Disruption: The Qatar Blockade 19 3. Scenario Analysis 24 3.1. High Risk of Supply Disruption 25 3.2. Low Risk of Supply Disruption 26 4. Conclusion 28 Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 3 Source: Haffizzuddin/Shutterstock - A storekeeper in Taif, Saudi Arabia, waits for customers. Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 4 Summary Natural conditions have made domestic food production an ongoing challenge for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Over the past few decades, these countries have been able to leverage their substantial economic resources to address these challenges, largely through food imports. Given their fiscal strength, the GCC countries’ main food security challenge will not likely be due to an increase in the price of food, but rather a natural or man-made disruption that blocks one or more of the countries’ access to food imports. In this report by a team of researchers from emerge85 and the RAND Corporation, we characterize the food security status of GCC countries and document the predominant strategies they have taken to increase domestic food production or to facilitate access to food imports. We then consider these strategies in the context of two different scenarios: one with a high likelihood of import disruption, and one with a low likelihood of such disruption. Our analysis suggests that with a high risk of disruption, continued investment in emergency stockpiles, the establishment of a diverse portfolio of trading routes and partners, and an investment in increased domestic agriculture – particularly in improved water management – could enhance food security for GCC countries. With a low risk of disruption, these countries will likely be able to afford food imports, as long as they can continue to export oil and gas. That said, as sustained high food prices may strain national budgets or make food less accessible for some parts of the population, financial tools to hedge against the risk of an increase in price may be valuable. Source: TommoT/Shutterstock - High-resolution satellite image of irrigated agriculture and dried-out river beds in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 5 Image: Sabino Parente/Shutterstock PART 1 Overview of Food Security in the GCC We begin with an overview of the current food security situation in the GCC, viewed through the lens of food, energy, and water security and utilizing RAND’s Food, Energy, and Water (FEW) Index. We then consider the implications of one particular characteristic of GCC food security: its dependence on imported food. 1.1. Food-Energy-Water Index Food security cannot be adequately examined without reference to the complex interactions between the food, water, and energy sectors. Numerous studies have described the important links among these three resources. For example, energy is used in the conveyance, treatment, and distribution of water. Energy production, in turn, requires substantial quantities of water. Moreover, the production of biofuels affects food markets and requires water inputs. Food production requires access to both water and energy for each step across the value chain for irrigation, cooling, processing, and transport, for example. RAND’s FEW Index is a composite measure combining country scores for food, energy, and water into a single score for overall resource vulnerability. Each measure is itself a composite score of sub-factors for availability – the extent to which a population is provided adequate resources to support its needs for a particular resource – and accessibility – the distribution of a particular resource across society. The score for water also includes a measure of adaptive capacity, or a nation’s ability to provide resources over time and in response to disruptions. Table 1: GCC FEW Index Scores Food Energy Water Water FEW FOOD Food ENERGY Energy WATER Water Country Accessi- Accessi- Accessi- Adaptive Score SUB-INDEX Availability SUB-INDEX Availability SUB-INDEX Availability bility bility bility Capability Bahrain 0.45 0.90 0.96 0.84 0.26 1.00 1.00 0.02 Kuwait 0.39 0.64 0.47 0.87 0.92 0.96 0.88 0.10 0.99 1.00 0.00 Oman 0.54 0.60 0.43 0.83 0.88 0.96 0.80 0.30 0.95 0.41 0.07 Qatar 0.57 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.17 0.99 1.00 0.01 Saudi 0.51 0.61 0.42 0.87 0.89 0.96 0.83 0.25 0.98 0.93 0.02 Arabia UAE 0.45 0.70 0.58 0.85 0.91 0.96 0.85 0.14 0.99 0.92 0.00 GCC 0.47 0.64 0.49 0.86 0.90 0.96 0.85 0.20 0.98 0.88 0.02 Average Source: Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water Index, accessed 2018. Note: Overall indices are not available for Bahrain or Qatar given that a food availability index for these countries was not determined given data limitations. Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 7 Figure 1: GCC FEW Overview Kuwait: 0.39 Bahrain: N/A Qatar: N/A Saudi Arabia: 0.51 UAE: 0.45 Oman: 0.54 FEW Index Score 0 1 Source: Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water Index, accessed 2018 The FEW Index ranges from 0.0 (lowest security) to 1.0 (highest security). It is important to recognize that the FEW Index values are calculated based on the entire population of the country. This fact is particularly salient in GCC countries, where the share of expatriates in the total population ranges from more than 30% in Saudi Arabia to more than 80% in Qatar and the UAE. Table 1 shows each sub-factor as well as the overall measure for the GCC countries, and Figure 1 illustrates the overall FEW indices. The FEW Index in GCC countries ranges from 0.39 (Kuwait) to 0.54 (Oman), close to the middle of the full range. These scores result from a mid-level food sub-index, a high energy sub-index, and a low water sub-index. The food sub-index generally falls into the mid-to-high range (0.6 to 0.7). GCC countries generally have high scores for food availability, which is based on the dietary food supply. Scores for food accessibility – which take into account the share of dietary food supply from non-starchy foods, as well as the overall price level – are near the middle of the range (0.42 to 0.58). Not surprisingly, all of the GCC countries score high in terms of the energy sub-index, which is based largely on electricity consumption and access to electricity and modern fuels. Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 8 The low scores for the GCC in the water sub-index are almost entirely driven by adaptive capacity. This measure captures total per-capita internally available renewable water, which is defined as “the sum of internal renewable water resources and external actual renewable water resources”, and is based on UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) measures of total water resources per capita (Table 2). Geographical drivers of water scarcity (e.g., low precipitation and sandy soils with limited water-holding capacity) have been exacerbated by increasing per-capita water consumption, coupled with continued population growth. Kuwait and the UAE have the lowest renewable water resources and the lowest adaptive capacity scores. In contrast, Oman has the highest per-capita amount of renewable water resources per year and the highest water adaptive capacity score among the GCC countries. This is a result of fresh groundwater stored in several aquifers as well as natural springs that benefit from precipitation and recharge, especially in mountainous areas. Table 2: Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita in GCC Countries, 2015 GCC Country Total renewable water resources per capita (m3/inhabitants/year) Bahrain 84.24 Kuwait 5.14 Oman 311.70 Qatar 25.95 Saudi Arabia 76.09 UAE 16.38 GCC Average 86.58 Source: FAO AQUASTAT, 2015 Food Security in the Gulf Cooperation Council - December 2018 9 To provide water for their populations despite low levels of freshwater resources, GCC countries rely on desalination.
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