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Non-Traditional Threats and Maritime Domain Awareness in the Tri-Border Area of Southeast Asia the Coast Watch System of the Philippines

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Non-Traditional Threats and Maritime Domain Awareness in the Tri-Border Area of Southeast Asia the Coast Watch System of the Philippines CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occa- sional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. Non-Traditional Threats and Maritime Domain Awareness in the Tri-Border Area of Southeast Asia The Coast Watch System of the Philippines Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Library of Congress Control Number: 2012938098 ISBN: 978-0-8330-7066-1 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The tri-border area (TBA) between the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia has been identi- fied as a key hub of terrorist and related criminal activity in Southeast Asia. This geographical space is a well-known transit zone for weapons, explosives, and personnel, as well as a prin- cipal logistical corridor for local and transnational terrorist groups. The U.S. government has devoted considerable resources to promoting maritime security initiatives in this region and, through a variety of capacity-building efforts, has been at the forefront of underwriting initia- tives in each of the three countries. This approach has necessarily been country-specific, with an eye toward developing solutions that uniquely fit each nation. However, the ultimate goal has been to encourage cooperation and interoperability, both among the recipient states and with the United States. One of the most interesting collaborative initiatives is the evolving Coast Watch System (CWS) in the Philippines. Originally designed to improve maritime domain awareness in the Sulu and Celebes Seas, the concept has now been extended to cover the entire Philippine archipelago. This occasional paper analyzes the security environment in the TBA; evaluates the CWS and the challenges it has yet to overcome; and considers the prospects for an initiative to eventually form the basis of an integrated system of maritime security that would tie together the three states that converge in the TBA—Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. The main purpose of this document is to act as a building block to guide further work on how best to establish an effective and viable system of regional maritime security architec- ture in this sensitive but understudied part of the world. Further analysis on maritime domain awareness (MDA) efforts by Malaysia and Indonesia would usefully complement this study. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. The document should be of interest to the national security community, as well as academics, analysts, and informed members of the public interested in Southeast Asian security issues. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact informa- tion is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ..................................................................................................xiii CHAPTER ONE Geospatial and Demographic Characteristics of the Tri-Border Area ................................ 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 Characteristics of the Tri-Border Area ......................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Tri-Border Area Threat Assessment ......................................................................... 7 The Spectrum of Armed Nonstate Actors in the Tri-Border Area ......................................... 8 Regional Jihadists .............................................................................................. 8 Transnational Linkages ....................................................................................... 9 Domestic Terrorist/Criminal Networks—The Abu Sayyaf Group .....................................10 Major Insurgent Movements ................................................................................13 Historical Overview of the Moro Separatist Movement .................................................13 Current State of the Moro Insurgency .....................................................................14 Splinter MNLF Groups ......................................................................................16 Piracy and Sea Robbery ........................................................................................16 Current Security Situation and Prospects ....................................................................18 CHAPTER THREE The Philippines’ Coast Watch System .....................................................................21 The CWS Concept ..............................................................................................21 Assets ............................................................................................................ 24 Benefits of the CWS ........................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions .................................................................................................... 27 Future Outlook for the CWS ..................................................................................29 Bibliography ....................................................................................................31 v Figures 1.1. Tri-Border Area of Southeast Asia ................................................................ 2 1.2. Exclusive Economic Zone Boundaries of the Tri-Border Area ...............................
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