Stephen Michael Kissler Postdoctoral Fellow – Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Address: 677 Huntington Ave, Boston MA 02115 (USA) Email: [email protected] Website: www.stephenkissler.com

Education PhD Applied Mathematics, University of Cambridge Mar 2018 Advisor: Julia R. Gog M.S. Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder May 2014 Advisor: D.M. Bortz B.S. Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder May 2013 Magna cum laude

Appointments Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Jan 2019-Present Grad Lab, Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease Junior Research Fellow, Queens’ College, University of Cambridge Oct 2017-Oct 2020

Awards Research Fellowship, Queens’ College, University of Cambridge Oct 2017 Provides three years of funding to conduct independent research in mathematics. Gates Cambridge Scholarship Spring 2014 Merit, leadership, and service-based award for full funding to complete PhD at the University of Cambridge. Institut Mittag-Leffler Fellowship Dec 2018 Awarded funding to attend the IML autumn 2018 research program on mathematical biology to study the mathematics of cancer. 65th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting as a Fellow of the Bayer Science Summer 2015 & Education Foundation One of 650 young scientists selected internationally to attend a week-long academic exchange with 70 Nobel Laureates in physics, chemistry, and medicine & physiology. Funding provided by the Bayer Science & Education Foundation. COMAP Mathematical and Statistical Modeling Contest Outstanding Spring 2012 Submission/MAA Award Placed in top 10 contestants out of 3,697 teams worldwide; special distinction given by the Mathematical Association of America. Outstanding Graduate, University of Colorado College of Engineering Spring 2014 Selected for outstanding achievement in research, service, and academics. Boettcher Scholar Spring 2009 Scholarship for full undergraduate university funding based on academic merit, service, and leadership. Awarded to 40 top Colorado students.

Preprints [1] S.M. Kissler*, J. Fauver*, C Mack*, ..., N Grubaugh, Y. Grad. Viral dynamics of SARS- CoV-2 infection and the predictive value of repeat testing. medRxiv (under review, *denotes equal contribution)

[2] S.M. Kissler*, J. Fauver*, C Mack*, ..., N Grubaugh, Y. Grad. Densely sampled viral trajectories suggest longer duration of acute infection with B.1.1.7 variant relative to non- B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. medRxiv (under review, *denotes equal contribution)

[3] J.A. Watson, S.M. Kissler, N. Day, Y. Grad, N.J. White. Optimal design for phase 2 studies of SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drugs. medRxiv (under review)

[4] S.M. Kissler, P. Klepac, M. Tang, J.R. Gog. Sparking "The BBC Four Pandemic": Leveraging citizen science and mobile phones to reveal interpersonal interactions relevant to the spread of disease. bioRxiv.

1 [5] P. Klepac, A.J. Kucharski, A.J.K. Conlan, S.M. Kissler, M. Tang, H. Fry, J.R. Gog. Contacts in context: large-scale setting-specific social mixing matrices from the BBC Pandemic project. medRxiv

Articles [1] S.M. Kissler, M. Klevens, M.L. Barnett, Y.H. Grad. Childhood respiratory outpatient visits correlate with socioeconomic status and drive geographic patterns in antibiotic prescribing. Journal of Infectious Diseases (accepted)

[2] S.M. Kissler*, M. Mitchell*, Y Grad. Reduction in antibiotic prescribing attainable with a gonococcal vaccine. Clinical Infectious Diseases (accepted, *denotes equal contribution)

[3] D.B. Larremore, B.K. Fosdick, K.M. Bubar, S. Zhang, S.M. Kissler, C.J.E. Metcalf, C.O. Buckee, Y.H. Grad. Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys. eLife, March 2021

[4] K.M. Bubar, K. Reinholt, S.M. Kissler, M. Lipsitch, S. Cobey, Y. Grad, D. Larremore. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science, eabe6959, Jan 2021

[5] C. Giannitsarou, S.M. Kissler, F. Toxvaerd. Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2. American Economic Review: Insights, 2021 (Forthcoming)

[6] S.M. Kissler*, N. Kishore*, M. Prabhu*, D. Goffman*, Y. Beilin*, R. Landau, C. Gyamfi- Bannerman, B.T. Bateman, J. Snyder, A.S. Razavi, D. Katz, J. Gal, A. Bianco, J. Stone, D. Larremore, C.O. Buckee, Y.H. Grad. Reductions in commuting mobility are correlated with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City. Nature Communications, August 2020 (*denotes equal contribution)

[7] S.M. Kissler*, C. Tedijanto*, E. Goldstein, Y.H. Grad, M. Lipsitch. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science, 368(6493):860-868, May 2020 (*denotes equal contribution)

[8] J.A. Firth, J. Hellewell, P. Klepac, S.M. Kissler, A.J. Kucharski, L.G. Spurgin, CMMID COVID-19 working group. Combining fine-scale social contact data with epidemic modelling reveals interactions between contact tracing, quarantine, testing and physical distancing for controlling COVID-19. Nature Medicine, August 2020

[9] S.M. Kissler, R.M. Klevens, M.L. Barnett, Y.H. Grad. Distinguishing the roles of antibiotic stewardship and reductions in outpatient visits in generating a five-year decline in antibiotic prescribing. Clinical Infectious Diseases, March 2020

[10] S.M. Kissler, C. Viboud, L. Simonsen, O.N. Bjørnstad, B.T. Grenfell, J.R. Gog. Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data. J. Roy. Soc. Interface, 17:20190628, March 2020

[11] A.J. Kucharski, P. Klepac, A. Conlan, S.M. Kissler, M. Tang, H. Fry, J.R. Gog, J. Edmunds, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group. Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings. Lancet Infectious Diseases (accepted)

[12] A.L. Hicks, S.M. Kissler, T.D. Mortimer, K.C. Ma, G. Taiaroa, M. Ashcroft, D.A. Williamson, M. Lipsitch, Y.H. Grad. Targeted surveillance strategies for efficient detection of novel antibiotic resistance variants. eLife, 9:e56367, June 2020

2 [13] B. Nichols, S.M. Kissler. Ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. The Lancet HIV, March 2020

[14] A.L. Hicks, S.M. Kissler, M. Lipsitch, Y.H. Grad. Quantifying the surveillance required to sustain genetic marker-based antibiotic resistance diagnostics. PLOS Biology, 17(11): e3000547, Oct. 2019

[15] S. Lew-Levy, S.M. Kissler, A.H. Boyette, A.N. Crittenden, I.A. Mabullah, B.S. Hewlett. Who teaches children to forage? Exploring the primacy of child-to-child teaching among Hadza and BaYaka Hunter-Gatherers of Tanzania and Congo. Evolution and Human Behavior, in press, Aug. 2019

[16] S.M. Kissler, J.R. Gog, C. Viboud, V. Charu, O.N. Bjørnstad, L. Simonsen, B.T. Grenfell. Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States. Epidemics, 26:86-94, Oct. 2018

[17] B. Dalziel, S.M. Kissler, J. Gog, C. Viboud, O. Bjørnstad, J.E. Metcalf, B.T. Grenfell. Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities. Science, 362(6410):75-79, Oct. 2018

[18] P. Klepac, S.M. Kissler, J.R. Gog. Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic – the model behind the documentary. Epidemics, 24:49-59, Mar. 2018.

[19] V. Charu, S. Zeger, J.R. Gog, O.N. Bjørnstad, S.M. Kissler, L. Simonsen, B.T. Grenfell, C. Viboud. Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. PLOS Comp. Bio., 13(2):e1005382, Feb. 2017.

[20] S.M. Kissler, C. Cichowitz, S. Sankaranarayanan, D.M. Bortz. Determination of personalized diabetes treatment plans using a two-delay model. J. Theor. Biol., 359:101- 111, Oct. 2014.

Non-Refereed [1] V. Roy, D. Chokshi, S.M. Kissler, P. Singh. Making Hepatitis C a rare disease in the Publications United States. Health Affairs Blog, June 2016.

PhD Thesis Stephen M. Kissler. Geographic and demographic transmission patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States. PhD, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, March 2018.

Master’s Stephen M. Kissler. Determination of personalized diabetes treatment plans using a two Thesis delay model. M.S., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, May 2014.

Presentations Invited: Emory Theory and Modeling of Living Systems symposium on Jan 2020 SARS-CoV-2 modeling Talk: Preparing for Gen C: Training a new generation of epidemiologists to meet a new generation of public health crises Invited: COVID-19 Dynamics and Evolution Jul 2020 Talk: Geographic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence are predicted by reductions in commuting-style mobility Invited: Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists training session Jun 2020 Talk: Modeling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a shifting landscape Invited: Boston University Department of Epidemiology colloquium Jan 2019 Talk: Accounting for trends in antibiotic prescribing: better prescribing or less disease? Infectious Disease Dynamics Conference (Ambleside, UK) Sep 2019 Talk: Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of influenza outbreaks

3 Invited: Probability and Biological Evolution, Centre International de Jun 2018 Rencontres Mathématiques (Marseille-Luminy, France) Talk: Human mobility and strain dynamics 6th International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics Dec 2017 (Sitges, Spain) Talk: Contrasting the geographic transmission of seasonal and pandemic influenza in the United States using a gravity-based model Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Nov 2017 Disease Dynamics (Boston, MA, USA) Talk: Making sense of the geographic transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza Next Generation Informatics for Global Health (Hong Kong) Jul 2017 Talk: Contrasting the geographic transmission patterns of three recent influenza outbreaks in the United States Cambridge Infectious Diseases Meeting of Minds (Cambridge, UK) Feb 2017 Talk: Seasonal variation in the transmission of influenza Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Conference on the Jul 2016 Life Sciences (Boston, MA, USA) Talk: Identifying hubs of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States National Institutes of Health Fogarty International Center, Div. of Dec 2015 International Epidemiology and Population Studies (Bethesda, MD, USA) Talk: Identifying hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States 5th International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics Dec 2015 (Clearwater, FL, USA) Talk: Spatiotemporal patterns in age structure in the 2009 influenza pandemic in the US RAPIDD Workshop on Gravity Models, Disease Spread, and Spatial Sep 2015 Scales (Cambridge, UK) Talk: 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States: Fitting fine-scale data Public Health@Cambridge Showcase (Cambridge, UK) Jun 2015 Talk: How to outrun a pandemic, in three easy steps London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (London, UK) Apr 2015 Talk: New insights into the spatial spread of influenza in the United States Selected Press WUSA Verify “Ask the Experts” panel March 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2s3B27mk28 This is the future of the pandemic (New York Times) May 2020 Siobhan Roberts, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/ coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html Our pandemic summer (The Atlantic) Apr 2020 Ed Yong, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/ pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/ Interview with Don Lemon on SARS-CoV-2 projections (CNN) Apr 2020 How the pandemic will end (The Atlantic) Mar 2020 Ed Yong, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/ how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ Four small cities may have played an outsize role in spreading Dec 2018 deadly flu (Science) Erin Garcia de Jesus, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/ four-small-cities-may-have-played-outsize-role-spreading-deadly-flu Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic (BBC Four) Mar 2018 http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1

4 Teaching Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health: Teaching fellow – Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Spring 2020 (EPI260) Guest lecturer – Introduction to Clinical Epidemiology (EPI 208) Fall 2020 Guest lecturer – Introduction to Infectious Disease Dynamics (EPI 501) Spring 2021 Brandeis University: Guest lecturer – Introduction to Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Spring 2021 Population Health (HSSP 100B) University of Cambridge: Supervisor – Mathematical Biology (Part II) Lent 2015-2018 Guest lecturer – Social Networks and Behavioural Ecology (Part II) Michaelmas 2017 University of Colorado: Guest lecturer – Technology, Cybersecurity, and Policy seminar Fall 2020 (CYBR 5000) Course Assistant – Matrix Methods (APPM 3310) Fall 2010 Course Assistant – Applied Analysis (APPM 4440) Fall 2012

Outreach Pandemic: Coronavirus Edition podcast Mar 2020-Present Produced a weekly podcast discussing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Sutton Trust Summer School Jul 2016, 2017 Led a lecture and activity on disease modelling for university-bound UK mathematics students Cambridge Science Festival Maths Open Day Mar 2015 Led an epidemic simulation activity for students between the ages of 8 and 12 Cambridge Maths Circle Outreach Day Oct 2014 Oversaw various math activity stations for local students between ages 5 and 18

Skills Foreign Languages Advanced: Spanish; Intermediate: Italian, American Sign Computer Languages Advanced: Mathematica, MATLAB, R; Intermediate: C++, Python, SQL, SAS

Mentoring Rotating student project Spring 2020 Effect of a gonococcal vaccine on antibiotic prescribing in the United States Summer project on human mobility Summer 2016 Oversaw an 8-week independent undergraduate research project. Engineering Honors Program Mentor Aug 2010-May 2014 Developed curriculum for ‘Critical Encounters’, a literature and philosophy course for new engineering students. I also tutored, planned cultural events, and provided personal support within a residential academic community. Global Engineering Program Mentor Aug 2013-May 2014 I assisted with Spanish language instruction and provided academic and personal support for 40 undergraduate students Service Harvard T.H. Chan Postdoctoral Association IID Representative, Jan 2019-present Mental Health Initiative coordinator Queens’ College undergraduate admissions interviews Autumn 2017 Worms and Bugs Seminars co-organizer Oct 2015-Dec 2018 King’s College Graduate Society Treasurer Jan 2015-Oct 2016 Gates Cambridge Orientation Committee Treasurer Jun-Oct 2016 King’s College Charitable Giving Stewardship Committee, Graduate Jul 2015-Jul 2016

5 Representative Engineering Excellence Fund Board Member/Chair Aug 2011-May 2013 Oversaw an annual budget of $500,000 and allocated funds to University of Colorado College of Engineering projects. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Chapter Co-President, Aug 2010-May 2014 University of Colorado Boulder

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