Lecture Notes in Energy

Volume 61 Lecture Notes in Energy (LNE) is a series that reports on new developments in the study of energy: from science and engineering to the analysis of energy policy. The series’ scope includes but is not limited to, renewable and green energy, nuclear, fossil fuels and carbon capture, energy systems, energy storage and harvesting, batteries and fuel cells, power systems, energy efficiency, energy in buildings, energy policy, as well as energy-related topics in economics, management and transportation. Books published in LNE are original and timely and bridge between advanced textbooks and the forefront of research. Readers of LNE include postgraduate students and non-specialist researchers wishing to gain an accessible introduction to a field of research as well as professionals and researchers with a need for an up-to-date reference book on a well-defined topic. The series publishes single and multi-authored volumes as well as advanced textbooks.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8874 Daniel Scholten Editor

The Geopolitics of Renewables

With contributions by David Criekemans Thijs van de Graaf Thomas Sattich Susann Handke Marloes Dignum Rick Bosman Antonella Battaglini Kanika Chawla Duncan Freeman Nadejda Komendantova Fritz Reusswig Sagatom Saha Varun Sivaram Karen Smith Stegen

123 Editor Daniel Scholten Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands

ISSN 2195-1284 ISSN 2195-1292 (electronic) Lecture Notes in Energy ISBN 978-3-319-67854-2 ISBN 978-3-319-67855-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67855-9

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017958737

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements

The Geopolitics of Renewables is the first volume to specifically explore the implications for interstate energy relations of a transition towards renewable energy; a novel topic that will undoubtedly garner more attention in the coming decades. It represents the culmination of the collaboration among a growing community of researchers drawn to this surprising gap in the literature. It is safe to say that without their enthusiasm and support, it would have proved too daunting to make this new phenomenon accessible and understandable to readers. I would therefore like to take this opportunity to thank all those that contributed to its realization. The origins of the volume can be traced back as far as Spring 2011 when I was thinking about life after my dissertation and decided to merge my interests in renewable energy and international relations. While scribbling down some first ideas, googling the topic highlighted its true novelty: only the conference paper by David Criekemans explicitly addressed it. After meeting him in the beautiful city of Antwerp enthusiasm struck me. This was later reinforced at the first workshop on the geopolitics of renewables in Delmenhorst, Germany, in December 2011, organized by Karen Smith Stegen. While I was horribly unprepared, not having a paper to back me up, it introduced me to Rick Bosman, got me thinking on how to tackle the conceptual and practical void of this new topic, and led to the organi- zation of a workshop together with David Criekemans at the political science day in 2012. While ideas were piling up, not much was put on paper due to the birth of my son and other priorities at Delft. Getting impatient and frustrated, I called Rick Bosman at the end of 2012, leading to a first conference paper in May 2013, and some short popular pieces by the end of Summer that year. These would lay the groundwork for the publication of “the geopolitics of renewables” in Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2016. The last few years, bits and pieces of renewables’ geopolitical impact have gotten more academic attention and there is a noticeable increase in interest by policy makers in the energy security implications of renewable energy technologies. Still, publications on the topic have remained scarce. It became time for someone to take this challenge on. After inviting David, Karen, Thijs, Varun, Sagatom,

v vi Acknowledgements

Thomas, Duncan, Kanika, Rick, Marloes, and Susann, the team to write a volume was largely assembled by the end of September 2016 and the general contours of the volume had taken shape. A hick-up in the process was Rick’s leave of absence due to personal circumstances, which led to the inclusion of Fritz, Nadejda, and Antonella’s chapter, the latter of which I met at the workshop on the geopolitics of renewables in March 2017 in Berlin. Fortunately, Rick was back in time to help out with the conclusion. Now, with the publication of the book, I can only express my utmost gratitude to all contributors for realizing this volume. Their willingness to incorporate my remarks, their occasional stubbornness in this regard, and their ability to deliver past deadlines prove that I had the privilege to work with true academics. In all, I very much look forward to continue working with them on this thrilling topic. Finally, I wish to acknowledge Springer for their interest and proactive approach in contacting me. It gave me the push I needed to take this challenge on. I also thank my colleagues at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management for giving me the opportunity to pursue a topic that is not exactly the core business of a technical university. Lastly, thanks go to the EUCERS staff at King’s College for allowing me to finish this volume during my time in London. Contents

1 The Geopolitics of Renewables—An Introduction and Expectations ...... 1 Daniel Scholten

Part I The Emerging Global Energy Game; Winners and Losers 2 Geopolitics of the Renewable Energy Game and Its Potential Impact upon Global Power Relations ...... 37 David Criekemans 3 Redrawing the Geopolitical Map: International Relations and Renewable Energies ...... 75 Karen Smith Stegen 4 Battling for a Shrinking Market: Oil Producers, the Renewables Revolution, and the Risk of Stranded Assets ...... 97 Thijs Van de Graaf

Part II Regional and Bilateral Energy Relations of Established and Rising Powers 5 The Geopolitical Implications of a Clean Energy Future from the Perspective of the ...... 125 Varun Sivaram and Sagatom Saha 6 The International Reverberations of Germany’s Energiewende; Geoeconomics in the EU’s Geo-Energy Space ...... 163 Thomas Sattich 7 China and Renewables: The Priority of Economics over Geopolitics ...... 187 Duncan Freeman

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8 Drivers, Apparatus, and Implications of India’s Renewable Energy Ambitions ...... 203 Kanika Chawla

Part III Infrastructure Developments and Governance Responses 9 New Governance Challenges and Conflicts of the Energy Transition: Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission as Contested Socio-technical Options ...... 231 Fritz Reusswig, Nadejda Komendantova and Antonella Battaglini 10 Connecting Visions of a Future Renewable Energy Grid ...... 257 Marloes Dignum 11 Renewables and the Core of the Energy Union: How the Pentalateral Forum Facilitates the Energy Transition in Western Europe ...... 277 Susann Handke

Part IV Conclusion 12 The Strategic Realities of the Emerging Energy Game—Conclusion and Reflection ...... 307 Daniel Scholten and Rick Bosman Index ...... 329 Editor and Contributors

About the Editor

Daniel Scholten is Assistant Professor at the faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology. He specializes in the geopolitics of renewables and the gover- nance of renewable energy systems. His research and teaching combines engineering insights on renewable energy systems with institutional economics, political science, and international relations to identify, interpret, and address the societal implications of a transition to renewable energy. He has published in such journals as Technical Forecasting and Social Change, Energy, Energies, Energy Research and Social Science, Journal of Common Market Studies, Sustainability, and European Review. In the past, Dr. Scholten has been an affiliated research fellow at the Energy Programme Asia of the International Institute for Asian Studies in Leiden and a lecturer of International Political Economy at Webster University Leiden. In addition, he was the managing editor of the international journal Competition and Regulation in Network Industries between 2011 and 2016. He defended his dissertation on the organizational requirements of future energy systems at the TU Delft in 2012 and holds degrees in Political Science (Radboud University, 2003) and International and European Relations (University of Amsterdam, 2006, with distinction).

Contributors

Antonella Battaglini is a scientist and a social entrepreneur who combines knowledge, technology and human power in politically practical ways, aimed at producing a sustainable electricity future for Europe. She is Initiator and Chief Executive Officer of the Renewables Grid Initiative (RGI). RGI was born in 2009, when NGOs and TSOs from across Europe came together to promote transparent, environmentally sensitive grid development to enable the further steady growth of renewable energy and the energy transition. Antonella is currently a member of the European Commission’s expert group on electricity interconnection targets and has previously been an expert member of the (WEF)’s 2014–2016 Global Agenda Council on the Future of Electricity. In 2015, she was named one of Tällberg’s 2015 five Global Leaders for her commitment to a sustainable energy future and combating climate change. She is also a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ix x Editor and Contributors

(PIK) where she leads the SuperSmart Grid (SSG) process, a concept she developed together with her team to reconcile different approaches to the system integration of renewables. Rick Bosman is Ph.D. researcher and advisor at the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Rick’s work focusses on the energy transition, both in the Netherlands and abroad. Particularly, he is interested in how (incumbent) actors deal with transformative change. His work is published in peer-reviewed academic journals, such as Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Sustainability and Environmental Innovation and Sustainability Transitions. Next to his scientific work, Rick advises high-level decision makers, including the Finnish Ministries of Economic Affairs and Employment, Agriculture and Forestry, and the Environment on their joint Bioeconomy Strategy; The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transition; and Dutch parliament on the effects of Germany’s Energiewende. Furthermore, Rick is ini- tiator of the post-academic masterclass “Accelerating the Energy Transition” and he regularly takes part in public debate through writing for popular media such as the Financial Times and Energy Post and giving public lectures. Rick holds a Bachelor degree in Environmental Sciences from Utrecht University (NL) and a Master degree in Renewable Energy Management from University of Freiburg (GER). Before starting his Ph.D., Rick gained work expe- rience in the (renewable) energy sector at the Netherlands Embassies in Australia and Germany and with the Clingendael International Energy Programme in The Hague. Kanika Chawla is a Senior Program Lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), India. As Senior Program Lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) (one of South Asia’s leading think-tanks), Ms Chawla manages CEEW’s work on renewable energy policy, finance, and jobs and skills. Her current responsibilities include: analyzing financial risks affecting renewable energy investments in India; changing market conditions and tax regimes and their impact on renewable energy; managing CEEW’s periodic surveys on RE jobs; and convening a high-level working group on renewable energy finance (comprising investors, developers and manufacturers). Prior to her association with CEEW she has worked at the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the twenty-first Century (REN 21) Secretariat in Paris. Kanika specialized in international cooperation and sustainable energy policy and resear- ched energy policy issues in developing countries around the world with a specific focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency and gender. She has also worked with GIZ on sustainability reporting. Kanika holds an M.Sc. in Economics and Development Economics from the University of Nottingham and an undergraduate honors degree in Economics from Miranda House, University of Delhi. She is fluent in English and Hindi and speaks basic French. Editor and Contributors xi

David Criekemans is Assistant Professor in International Politics at the University of Antwerp (Belgium), Assistant Professor in International Relations at the University College Roosevelt in Middelburg (the Netherlands) (part of Utrecht University), and Lecturer in Geopolitics at the Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies (Switzerland). David Criekemans is also since 2015 a Visiting Professor at Blanquerna, Ramon Lull University in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain). He defended his Ph.D. in 2005 on the history of geopolitical thought and its relation to International Relations, published by Garant/Maklu in the Netherlands. Since then, Dr. Criekemans has been working on various topics of geopolitical analysis, among others he has conducted several in-depth studies on the Geopolitics of Energy: EU-Russian energy relations and the geopolitics of renewable energy. Marloes Dignum studied Innovation Sciences in Eindhoven university of tech- nology and holds a Ph.D. from the same university. Her Ph.D. research centered on the shaping capabilities of large technological visions in societal and institutional change processes, focusing on hydrogen as a potential alternative to fossil fuel. She worked a postdoctoral researcher at Delft University of Technology in the fields of transition studies and responsible innovation. Her postdoctoral work focused on the energy domain and included analysis on the public acceptance of new energy technologies, institutional and procedural development of new energy systems, public values and participatory decision making, collaboration and scaling energy sustainability. Since March 2017, she works as a researcher on urban innovation at The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). In this position, her research focuses on urban innovation and experimentation in relation to transitions. Duncan Freeman is Research Fellow at the EU-China Research Centre of the EU International Relations and Diplomacy Department, College of Europe, Bruges, where he carries out research focused around the current development of the EU-China relationship. Dr. Freeman taught and carried out research on China’s economic and policy developments, as well as on EU-China relations, at the Brussels Diplomatic Academy and at the Brussels Academy for China and European Studies, both at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB). He holds a BA in Politics and Modern History from the University of Manchester, an M.Sc. in Chinese Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, a Postgraduate Diploma in Economic Principles from the University of London and a Ph.D. from the VUB. Dr. Freeman previously lived and worked in Beijing and Hong Kong for a total of 17 years and is fluent in Chinese. During his time in Hong Kong, he was the editor and publisher of several leading publications on the Chinese legal and tax systems for business. Susann Handke is an external Ph.D. candidate at the Erasmus School of Law, Rotterdam, Netherlands. Her research focuses on the UN climate change regime and domestic legislation to guide the decarbonization of the electricity sector in the European Union, the United States, and China. In the past, she conducted research on the geopolitics of energy at the Clingendael International Energy Programme, The Hague. Susann holds master’s degrees in international and EU law, Dutch xii Editor and Contributors constitutional and administrative law, and Sinology. She is also a research associate at the International Institute for Asian Studies, Centre for Governance and Regulation, Leiden. Nadejda Komendantova is a senior research scholar at ETH Zurich as well as the coordinator of Governance in Transition Theme at the Risk and Resilience Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Her research interests include participatory and multi-risk governance of climate change miti- gation and adaptation, based on the understanding of views and risk perceptions of involved stakeholders, of governance structures, market and civil society as well as social institutions and political processes towards more adaptive and inclusive governance approach, which is central to the science-policy interface. Fritz Reusswig is a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the deputy head of the department “Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods”. He is a sociologist and philosopher by training (Ph.D. at Goethe University of Frankfurt am Main, Habilitation Thesis at Potsdam University). He is working on climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for cities, on the public discourse on climate change and nature protection, and on renewable energy conflicts. Fritz is teaching environmental sociology at the Humboldt University of Berlin. Sagatom Saha is a visiting fellow at the DiXi Group, a think tank in Kyiv focused on the politics of energy reform. He was recently the research associate for energy and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations where he helped direct the Council’s Program on Energy Security and Climate Change. Saha’s work has a number of prominent publications appearing in Defense One, Foreign Affairs, Fortune, The National Interest, and World Politics Review. He holds a bachelor’sin international studies and business administration from American University. Thomas Sattich is affiliated with the University of Stavanger, Norway. His research focuses on the European politics of energy. Having been based in Brussels for 5 years, Dr. Sattich has first-hand experience with EU-level energy politics and the diverse set of EU energy policies. His main focus lies on energy infrastructure, particularly electricity grids, international flows of energy, and the integration of renewables. Analyzing, converting, and visualizing energy data are among his favorite activities. Beyond, Thomas Sattich is interested in the overlap between energy and industrial policy as well as the energy relations between European and non-European countries. In this context, the relationship between European and Chinese energy policy is one of the subjects Thomas Sattich is working on. Varun Sivaram is the Philip D. Reed fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, a fellow at ’s Center for Global Energy Policy, and a board member for ’s Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy. He is the author of the upcoming book, Taming the Sun (MIT University Press, February 2018). Editor and Contributors xiii

Dr. Sivaram was previously senior advisor for energy and water policy to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, strategic advisor on energy policy to the office of Governor , and a consultant at McKinsey & Company. Forbes named him one of its 30 under 30 in law and policy, and Grist named him one of its top 50 leaders in sustainability. He holds a Ph.D. in condensed matter physics from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. Karen Smith Stegen is a professor of political science and the coordinator of the International Relations: Politics and History (IRPH) undergraduate program at Jacobs University, located in Bremen, Germany. In addition to her Ph.D. in political science (Northwestern University), she holds an International MBA (Moore School, University of South Carolina). Her interest in geopolitics and energy stems from her 6-year experience working for an international energy company. In 2011, Dr. Smith Stegen organized the first-ever workshop specifically examining the geopolitics of renewable energies, which drew attendees from around the world. Many of her publications focus on energy and international relations and appear in peer-reviewed journals such as Energy Policy, Energy, and the Journal of Transatlantic Studies. Dr. Smith Stegen is also a featured speaker at conferences and workshops. Thijs Van de Graaf is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Ghent University, Belgium. His research and teaching cover global energy politics and international relations. Thijs is coeditor of The Palgrave Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy (Palgrave, 2016), Rising Powers and Multilateral Institutions (Palgrave, 2015), author of The Politics and Institutions of Global Energy Governance (Palgrave, 2013) and coauthor of Global Energy Governance in a Multipolar World (Ashgate, 2010). In 2011, he was a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. Thijs is the coordinator of REFRACT, a research network on fragmentation and complexity in global governance. He sits on the editorial boards of Energy Research and Social Science (Elsevier), International Environmental Agreements (Springer) and Palgrave Communications (Nature Publishing Group). Abbreviations

AC Alternating Current ACER Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators ADB Asian Development Bank AGE7 Advisory Group for Energy AT&C Aggregate Technical & Commercial BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance BOO Build, Own, and Operate scheme BP British Petroleum BRI Belt and Road Initiative BYD Build Your Dreams CACR Central Asia and Caspian Region CAN Climate Action Network CAPEX Capital Expenditures CBDR Common But Differentiated Responsibility CCS Carbon Capture and Storage (technology) CDM Clean Development Mechanism CdTe-cells Cadmium Telluride cells CEM Climate and Energy Model CENTCOM US Central Command CERC Clean Energy Research Center CIEP Clingendael International Energy Program CIGS-cells Copper Indium Gallium Selenide cells CO2 Carbon Dioxide CSEM Swiss Centre for Electronics and Microtechnology CSP Concentrated Solar Power CTCN UNFCCC’s Climate Technology Centre and Network DAD Decide–Announce–Defend DC Direct Current DERs Distributed Energy Resources DfiD UK Department of International Development

xv xvi Abbreviations

DG-TREN Directorate-General Transport and Energy DII Desertec Industrial Initiative DISCOM Distribution Company DOE Department of Energy DSO Distribution System Operator EC European Commission EEG Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (Germany) EIA Energy Information Administration ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity EP European Parliament ERGEG European Regulators’ Group for Electricity and Gas EU European Union EVs Electric Vehicles FDR Franklin Delano Roosevelt GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GIB Green Investment Bank GIS Geographic Information System GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (German Development Fund) GW(h) Gigawatt (hours) HEU Highly Enriched Uranium HVDC High-Voltage Direct Current IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICT Information and Communication Technology IEA International Energy Agency IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IOC International Oil Company IoT Internet-of-Things IPE International Political Economy IPI Iran–Pakistan–India IPO Initial Public Offering IPR Intellectual Property Rights IR International Relations IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency IS Islamic State ISA International Solar Alliance KfW German Government Development Bank KM Kilometer KW(h) Kilowatt (hours) LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LWRs Light Water Reactors MENA Middle East and North Africa Abbreviations xvii

MI Mission Innovation MLF Multilateral Fund under the Montreal Protocol MLP Multilevel Perspective MoU Memorandum of Understanding MS Member States MTOE Million Tons of Oil Equivalent MW(h) Megawatt (hours) NAFTA North America Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NEO New Energy Outlook NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIMBY Not In My Back Yard NPS New Policies Scenario NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NSS Nuclear Security Summit OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries OPEX Operational Expenditures OTSO Offshore Transmission System Operator PACE Partnership to Advance Clean Energy PPA Power Purchase Agreements PV Photovoltaic R&D Research and Development RD&D Research, Development and Demonstration RES Renewable Energy Sources RPO Renewable Purchase Obligations SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems SMR Small Modular Reactor SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve StrEG Stromeinspeisungsgesetz (Germany) TAPI Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India TFEU Lisbon Treaty TRANSCO Transmission Company TSO Transmission System Operator TW(h) Terawatt(hours) UAE United Arab Emirates UHVDC Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Current UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US United States xviii Abbreviations

WB World Bank WEO World Energy Outlook WTO World Trade Organization WVS World Values Survey WWF World Wildlife Fund WWII World War II List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 Framework of analysis—the core relationship and its context ...... 17 Fig. 1.2 The geopolitics of renewables and fossil fuels...... 25 Fig. 2.1 The North Sea offshore grid initiative ...... 47 Fig. 2.2 Renewable energy potential versus how much of it is captured by current technologies ...... 55 Fig. 2.3 Solar power potential and solar irradiance (1) ...... 56 Fig. 2.4 Solar power potential and solar irradiance (2) ...... 56 Fig. 2.5 Wind power potential in the world ...... 58 Fig. 2.6 Wind power potential in Europe ...... 59 Fig. 2.7 Households using biomass fuel (%)...... 60 Fig. 2.8 Usage of biomass in households ...... 60 Fig. 2.9 Potential countries have with regard to biofuels ...... 62 Fig. 2.10 Overview of the world’s lithium supply ...... 66 Fig. 3.1 Deserts and electricity demand centers, with HVDC lines and number of transit countries ...... 89 Fig. 4.1 The declining oil intensity of global economic growth, 1975–2014 ...... 101 Fig. 4.2 Comparing levels of oil demand displaced by EVs across projections ...... 103 Fig. 4.3 World oil demand and price across three IEA scenarios ...... 103 Fig. 4.4 How much oil is unburnable in a 2 °C scenario before 2050? ...... 104 Fig. 5.1 Russian exports of nuclear power plants (2015) ...... 138 Fig. 5.2 Electricity imports and exports between Canada and the United States (2015) ...... 142 Fig. 5.3 Total clean energy manufacturing value added by country (2014) ...... 150 Fig. 6.1 Net transfer and surplus capacities in the EU’s geo-energy space (winter 2009/2010)...... 173

xix xx List of Figures

Fig. 6.2 Calculated per area generation of intermittent electricity (wind, solar, tidal) (MWh/km2)...... 176 Fig. 6.3 Germany’s position in the EU’s geo-energy space—share of German electricity in neighboring systems ...... 177 Fig. 9.1 Idealized matrix of the electricity system transition from fossil to renewables (vertical axis) and from centralized to decentralized system structures (horizontal axis) ...... 235 Fig. 10.1 An example of a distributed system...... 263 Fig. 10.2 Offshore wind energy in the Netherlands (MWh): realized and projected ...... 268 Fig. 10.3 Representation radial grid (left) and meshed grid (right) ...... 269 List of Tables

Table 2.1 Total capital investment in clean tech ...... 51 Table 3.1 Geopolitical winners and laggards with (R + P + H)/3 ...... 86 Table 3.2 Geopolitical winners and laggards with (R + P + 2H)/3 ...... 87 Table 3.3 World estimated mined production of critical materials (SETIS material information systems) ...... 91 Table 4.1 Key indicators of top 20 oil exporters ...... 108 Table 9.1 Facet of governance and typical conflicts ...... 239

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