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RETHINKING ENERGY SOLUTIONS This Work Is Licensed Under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International License Transformations within reach: Pathways to a sustainable and resilient world RETHINKING ENERGY SOLUTIONS This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International License. For any commercial use please contact: [email protected] Available at: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16820 First published in January 2021. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the International Science Council have no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet web sites referred to in this publication and do not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. The views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, its National Member Organizations, or the International Science Council and its members, or any other organizations supporting their work. Cover illustration assets: © Pavlo Syvak | Dreamstime Cover design: © Adam Islaam | IIASA Transformations within reach: Pathways to a sustainable and resilient world Rethinking energy solutions Lead Authors Behnam Zakeri, Katsia Paulavets, Leonardo Barreto-Gomez, and Luis Gomez Echeverri Contributing Authors Shonali Pachauri, Joeri Rogelj, Felix Creutzig, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, David Victor, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Caroline Zimm, Sarah Alexander, Morgan Bazilian, Steffen Fritz, Dolf Gielen, Harish Hande, David McCollum, Clay Nesler, Michaela Rossini, Varun Sivaram, and Leena Srivastava covid19.iiasa.ac.at/isc 2 Table of contents About the authors ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 6 Rethinking energy solutions: ........................................................................................... 8 1 Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Systems .............................................................................................. 8 1.1 COVID-19 and vulnerabilities in energy systems ............................................................................ 8 1.2 Pandemic and opportunities for sustainable energy transitions ..................................................... 10 2 Transition to a Resilient and Sustainable Energy System: Rationale and Enablers ................................. 12 2.1 Diverting support and investments from fossil fuel to clean energy ............................................... 13 2.2 Cities as a driving force for the energy transition ......................................................................... 13 2.3 Digitalization and digital divide ................................................................................................... 16 2.4 Advancing energy efficiency and decentralized renewable energy ................................................. 17 2.5 Harnessing the power of collective responsible behavior .............................................................. 20 2.6 Science and innovation .............................................................................................................. 21 2.7 Ensuring a just energy transition ................................................................................................ 23 3 Areas for Policy Intervention ............................................................................................................. 25 3.1 Reimagining consumption: Circular and sharing economy and citizen engagement ........................ 25 3.2 Reinventing urban space, infrastructure, and mobility .................................................................. 29 3.3 Advancing the role of decentralized and resilient energy systems including energy efficiency.......... 32 References ............................................................................................................................................. 37 Participants of the consultation meetings .................................................................................................. 50 covid19.iiasa.ac.at/isc 3 About the authors Lead Authors: Behnam Zakeri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Katsia Paulavets, International Science Council (ISC), France Leonardo Barreto-Gomez, Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), Austria Luis Gomez Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Contributing authors: Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Joeri Rogelj, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, and Imperial College London, UK Felix Creutzig, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Hungary David Victor, UC San Diego, USA Benigna Boza-Kiss, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Caroline Zimm, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Sarah Alexander, SELCO Foundation, India Morgan Bazilian, Payne Institute/ Colorado School of Mine, USA Steffen Fritz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Dolf Gielen, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre, Germany Harish Hande, SELCO Foundation, India David McCollum, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), USA Clay Nesler, Alliance to Save Energy, USA Michaela Rossini, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Varun Sivaram, ReNew Power, India Leena Srivastava, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria covid19.iiasa.ac.at/isc 4 Acknowledgments This report is a joint effort between IIASA and ISC. We appreciate the continued support from the two institutions, especially Leena Srivastava (IIASA) and Flavia Schlegel (ISC). We would like to sincerely thank Hans Olav Ibrekk, Policy Director of Section for Energy, Climate, and Food Security, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Co-Facilitator of the SDG7 Technical Advisory Group, as the Chair of the Sustainable Energy Theme. We would also like to thank Keywan Riahi, Director, Energy Program, IIASA, who served as an Advisor to the energy team. We demonstrate our sincere appreciation to all participants in three consultative meetings for their valuable comments and contributions on which this report is based (see the list of participants on page 50). The views represented in this report is not the official position of IIASA and ISC, nor represents the views of supporting organizations. The team also sincerely acknowledges the assistance of Anastasia Aldelina Lijadi (IIASA) for the administrative and logistic support throughout the project. In addition, we would like to express our sincere appreciation for the support of the IIASA communications team, Adam Islaam, Philippa Baumgartner, and Ansa Heyl in the finalization of this report, as well as the editing and formatting services provided by Kathryn Platzer and Ingrid Teply-Baubinder. covid19.iiasa.ac.at/isc 5 Executive Summary The COVID-19 pandemic has caused multiple disruptions to the global economy, and the energy sector is no exception. Among the key developments taking place in the energy sector over the last months have been: a drastic fall in energy demand due to reductions in economic activities and traveling; lifestyle changes; reduced oil prices; disruptions in the supply chain of energy technologies; and a decline in energy investments. The COVID-19 crisis has also exacerbated global inequality in access to basic energy services, with the most devastating impacts falling on vulnerable groups and the urban poor. As a result of reduced energy demand, energy-related carbon emissions are expected to fall in 2020. However, most of the reductions observed in energy consumption, carbon emissions, and air pollution in 2020 are likely to be short-lived if no systemic changes take place in the economic, transport, or energy sectors. The long-term impacts of the pandemic on human well-being, the economy, and the environment, in addition to the energy sector, are still uncertain, raising questions and concerns as to how the post-COVID-19 recovery will advance or undermine efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to meet the Paris Agreement pledges on climate change. Decisions made today will either accelerate the transition toward a more sustainable and resilient energy system or slow it down. Choices made concerning the energy system will also increase or decrease vulnerability in other key systems, such as health, food, cities, etc. It is thus important for recovery efforts and stimulus packages in the wake of COVID-19 to avoid the emission rebounds that would arise from a return to business-as-usual energy use. However, the latest data show that the recovery packages of the G20+ countries benefit fossil fuels more than clean energy. This trend has to be reversed. Policy signals should be given to stimulate a reallocation of investments toward clean energy projects, otherwise the world will lock itself into an insecure and high- carbon energy future which would significantly jeopardize the achievement of the SDGs and climate neutrality goals. To meet the global goal of the temperature limit "well below 2 degrees," global emissions
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