Lecture Notes in Energy Volume 61 Lecture Notes in Energy (LNE) is a series that reports on new developments in the study of energy: from science and engineering to the analysis of energy policy. The series’ scope includes but is not limited to, renewable and green energy, nuclear, fossil fuels and carbon capture, energy systems, energy storage and harvesting, batteries and fuel cells, power systems, energy efficiency, energy in buildings, energy policy, as well as energy-related topics in economics, management and transportation. Books published in LNE are original and timely and bridge between advanced textbooks and the forefront of research. Readers of LNE include postgraduate students and non-specialist researchers wishing to gain an accessible introduction to a field of research as well as professionals and researchers with a need for an up-to-date reference book on a well-defined topic. The series publishes single and multi-authored volumes as well as advanced textbooks. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8874 Daniel Scholten Editor The Geopolitics of Renewables With contributions by David Criekemans Thijs van de Graaf Thomas Sattich Susann Handke Marloes Dignum Rick Bosman Antonella Battaglini Kanika Chawla Duncan Freeman Nadejda Komendantova Fritz Reusswig Sagatom Saha Varun Sivaram Karen Smith Stegen 123 Editor Daniel Scholten Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands ISSN 2195-1284 ISSN 2195-1292 (electronic) Lecture Notes in Energy ISBN 978-3-319-67854-2 ISBN 978-3-319-67855-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67855-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017958737 © Springer International Publishing AG 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements The Geopolitics of Renewables is the first volume to specifically explore the implications for interstate energy relations of a transition towards renewable energy; a novel topic that will undoubtedly garner more attention in the coming decades. It represents the culmination of the collaboration among a growing community of researchers drawn to this surprising gap in the literature. It is safe to say that without their enthusiasm and support, it would have proved too daunting to make this new phenomenon accessible and understandable to readers. I would therefore like to take this opportunity to thank all those that contributed to its realization. The origins of the volume can be traced back as far as Spring 2011 when I was thinking about life after my dissertation and decided to merge my interests in renewable energy and international relations. While scribbling down some first ideas, googling the topic highlighted its true novelty: only the conference paper by David Criekemans explicitly addressed it. After meeting him in the beautiful city of Antwerp enthusiasm struck me. This was later reinforced at the first workshop on the geopolitics of renewables in Delmenhorst, Germany, in December 2011, organized by Karen Smith Stegen. While I was horribly unprepared, not having a paper to back me up, it introduced me to Rick Bosman, got me thinking on how to tackle the conceptual and practical void of this new topic, and led to the organi- zation of a workshop together with David Criekemans at the political science day in 2012. While ideas were piling up, not much was put on paper due to the birth of my son and other priorities at Delft. Getting impatient and frustrated, I called Rick Bosman at the end of 2012, leading to a first conference paper in May 2013, and some short popular pieces by the end of Summer that year. These would lay the groundwork for the publication of “the geopolitics of renewables” in Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2016. The last few years, bits and pieces of renewables’ geopolitical impact have gotten more academic attention and there is a noticeable increase in interest by policy makers in the energy security implications of renewable energy technologies. Still, publications on the topic have remained scarce. It became time for someone to take this challenge on. After inviting David, Karen, Thijs, Varun, Sagatom, v vi Acknowledgements Thomas, Duncan, Kanika, Rick, Marloes, and Susann, the team to write a volume was largely assembled by the end of September 2016 and the general contours of the volume had taken shape. A hick-up in the process was Rick’s leave of absence due to personal circumstances, which led to the inclusion of Fritz, Nadejda, and Antonella’s chapter, the latter of which I met at the workshop on the geopolitics of renewables in March 2017 in Berlin. Fortunately, Rick was back in time to help out with the conclusion. Now, with the publication of the book, I can only express my utmost gratitude to all contributors for realizing this volume. Their willingness to incorporate my remarks, their occasional stubbornness in this regard, and their ability to deliver past deadlines prove that I had the privilege to work with true academics. In all, I very much look forward to continue working with them on this thrilling topic. Finally, I wish to acknowledge Springer for their interest and proactive approach in contacting me. It gave me the push I needed to take this challenge on. I also thank my colleagues at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management for giving me the opportunity to pursue a topic that is not exactly the core business of a technical university. Lastly, thanks go to the EUCERS staff at King’s College for allowing me to finish this volume during my time in London. Contents 1 The Geopolitics of Renewables—An Introduction and Expectations ....................................... 1 Daniel Scholten Part I The Emerging Global Energy Game; Winners and Losers 2 Geopolitics of the Renewable Energy Game and Its Potential Impact upon Global Power Relations ....................... 37 David Criekemans 3 Redrawing the Geopolitical Map: International Relations and Renewable Energies .................................... 75 Karen Smith Stegen 4 Battling for a Shrinking Market: Oil Producers, the Renewables Revolution, and the Risk of Stranded Assets .................. 97 Thijs Van de Graaf Part II Regional and Bilateral Energy Relations of Established and Rising Powers 5 The Geopolitical Implications of a Clean Energy Future from the Perspective of the United States .................... 125 Varun Sivaram and Sagatom Saha 6 The International Reverberations of Germany’s Energiewende; Geoeconomics in the EU’s Geo-Energy Space ................. 163 Thomas Sattich 7 China and Renewables: The Priority of Economics over Geopolitics ....................................... 187 Duncan Freeman vii viii Contents 8 Drivers, Apparatus, and Implications of India’s Renewable Energy Ambitions ............................. 203 Kanika Chawla Part III Infrastructure Developments and Governance Responses 9 New Governance Challenges and Conflicts of the Energy Transition: Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission as Contested Socio-technical Options ......... 231 Fritz Reusswig, Nadejda Komendantova and Antonella Battaglini 10 Connecting Visions of a Future Renewable Energy Grid ........ 257 Marloes Dignum 11 Renewables and the Core of the Energy Union: How the Pentalateral Forum Facilitates the Energy Transition in Western Europe ..................................... 277 Susann Handke Part IV Conclusion 12 The Strategic Realities of the Emerging Energy Game—Conclusion and Reflection ......................... 307 Daniel Scholten and Rick Bosman Index ...................................................... 329 Editor and Contributors About the Editor Daniel Scholten is Assistant Professor at the faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology. He specializes in the geopolitics of renewables and the gover- nance of renewable energy systems. His research and teaching combines engineering insights on renewable energy systems with institutional economics, political science, and international relations to identify, interpret, and address the societal implications of a transition to renewable energy. He has published in such journals