DOCSLIB.ORG

Ontario Wholesale Electricity Market Price Forecast Ontario Energy Board

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Ontario Wholesale Electricity Market Price Forecast Ontario Energy Board Ontario Wholesale Electricity Market Price Forecast For the Period May 1, 2008 through October 31, 2009 Presented to Ontario Energy Board April 11, 2008 Navigant Consulting Inc. One Adelaide Street East, 26th Floor Toronto, Ontario M5C 2V9 www.navigantconsulting.com NOTICE OF CONFIDENTIALITY Copyright This report is protected by copyright. Any copying, reproduction, performance or publication in any form outside the client organization without the express written consent of Navigant Consulting Inc. is prohibited. No Warranties or Representations Some of the assumptions used in the preparation of this wholesale electricity market price forecast, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, inevitably will not materialize as forecasted as unanticipated events and circumstances occur subsequent to the date of the forecast. Accordingly, actual electricity market prices will vary from the electricity market price forecast and the variations may be material. There is no representation that our Ontario electricity market price forecast will be realized. Important factors that could cause actual electricity market prices to vary from the forecast are disclosed throughout the report. Notice of Confidentiality EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant Consulting or NCI) was retained by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB or the Board) to provide an independent market price forecast for the Ontario wholesale electricity market. This wholesale electricity price forecast will be used, as one of a number of inputs, to set the price for eligible consumers under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP). Navigant Consulting used ProSym to develop our hourly Ontario electricity price (HOEP) forecast. Navigant Consulting’s Ontario ProSym database reflects the Ontario hourly load shape, all committed new entrant generation, best available information regarding the operating profile of Ontario’s hydroelectric generation (baseload and peaking resources), and operating characteristics and fuel prices for Ontario’s thermal generation. The sources of our assumptions are reviewed in detail in Chapter 3 of this report. The table below presents the results of our base case market price forecast produced by ProSym. The on-peak and off-peak prices presented are simple averages, i.e., not load weighted. Table ES-1: HOEP Forecast ($ CAD per MWh) Term Quarter Calendar Period On-Peak Off-Peak Average Term Average Q1 May 08 - Jul 08 $81.39 $33.64 $56.38 Q2 Aug 08 - Oct 08 $92.29 $34.41 $61.97 Q3 Nov 08 - Jan 09 $95.65 $34.82 $63.78 RPP Year Q4 Feb 09 - April 09 $87.41 $36.34 $60.66 $60.72 Q1 May 09 - Jul 09 $76.69 $32.36 $53.47 Other Q2 Aug 09 - Oct 09 $78.08 $32.18 $54.04 $53.73 Source: NCI Notes 1) The prices reflect an exchange rate of $1.00 CAD to $0.980 USD 2) On-peak hours include the hours ending at 8 a.m. through 11 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST) on working weekdays and off-peak hours include all other hours. Executive Summary i TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................I 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Contents of This Report.........................................................................................................1 2. PRICE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................2 2.1 Overview of the Forecasting Model ....................................................................................2 2.2 Treatment of “OPG Regulated Assets” in the Model Specification................................4 2.3 Recognizing Market Pricing Volatility................................................................................4 3. SHORT-TERM FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................6 3.1 Primary Assumptions and Data Sources............................................................................6 3.1.1 Demand Forecast............................................................................................................................6 3.1.2 Supply Assumptions......................................................................................................................7 3.1.3 Outages..........................................................................................................................................8 3.1.4 Offer Strategies ..............................................................................................................................8 3.1.5 Price Responsive Load....................................................................................................................9 3.1.6 Transmission Capabilities and Constraints...................................................................................9 3.1.7 Fuel Prices....................................................................................................................................10 3.1.8 Coal Prices ...................................................................................................................................12 3.1.9 Hydro Resources ..........................................................................................................................12 4. REVIEW OF FORECAST RESULTS .....................................................................................................13 5. ASSESSMENT OF FORECAST RISKS.................................................................................................16 5.1 Load Forecast Risk ...............................................................................................................16 5.2 Fuel Price Forecast Risk.......................................................................................................16 5.3 Generator Availability Price Risks.....................................................................................20 Table of Contents ii LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES List of Figures Figure 1: Historic Distribution of Hourly HOEP.........................................................................................14 Figure 2: Historic Distribution of Monthly Average HOEP ......................................................................15 Figure 3: Historical May 2008 Futures Prices (US$/MMBtu)....................................................................18 Figure 4: Historical May 2008 Futures Central Appalachian Coal and Henry Hub Gas Prices (US$/MMBtu) ..................................................................................................................................................19 Figure 5: Comparison of Monthly Average HOEP with ±20% Change in Henry Hub Gas Price........20 List of Tables Table 1: Forecast Monthly Energy Consumption and Peak Demand ........................................................7 Table 2: Major Generation Capacity Additions .............................................................................................8 Table 3: Ontario Interconnection Limits .......................................................................................................10 Table 4: Natural Gas and Fuel Oil Prices (US$/MMBtu)...........................................................................11 Table 5: Ontario Delivered Coal Price Outlook (US$/MMBtu) ................................................................12 Table 6: HOEP Forecast (CAD $ per MWh) .................................................................................................13 Table 7: Comparison of Historical Nuclear Capacity Factors with Forecast Values..............................20 Table of Contents iii 1. INTRODUCTION Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant Consulting or NCI) was retained by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB or the Board) to provide an independent market price forecast for the Ontario wholesale electricity market. This wholesale electricity price forecast will be used, among other inputs, to set the price for eligible consumers under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP). This report presents the results of our forecast of the Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) for the period from May 1, 2008 through October 31, 2009 and describes the major economic and energy market assumptions and inputs for the forecast, as well the source of information. In addition, given that this forecast is based on a specific set of assumptions, the report also evaluates major risk factors in the forecast. This forecast of the HOEP will be used along with the following to establish the price for the RPP: o the regulated rate for Ontario Power Generation’s (OPG’s) prescribed assets, o the cost of non-utility generation (NUG) contracts administered by the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation, o the cost of renewable energy supply (RES) and clean energy supply (CES) contracts administered by the Ontario Power Authority (OPA), o the cost of renewable energy standard offer program (RESOP) contracts administered by the Ontario Power Authority, and o the cost of the “Early Mover” and Bruce Power contracts administered by the OPA. In addition this forecast will be used to determine the estimated value of the OPG non- prescribed asset rebate (OPG Rebate or ONPA Rebate) as part of the RPP price. 1.1 Contents of This Report This report contains five chapters. The first is this Introduction. The second reviews the forecasting methodology,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Bdstaff SUB OPG 20071121
    Ontario Energy Board Commission de l’énergie P.O. Box 2319 de l’Ontari o 27th. Floor C.P. 2319 2300 Yonge Street 27e étage Toronto ON M4P 1E4 2300, rue Yonge Telephone: 416-481-1967 Toronto ON M4P 1E4 Facsimile: 416-440-7656 Téléphone: 416-481-1967 Toll free: 1-888-632-6273 Télécopieur: 416-440-7656 Numéro sans frais: 1-888-632-6273 By E-mail November 21, 2007 Ms. Kirsten Walli Board Secretary Ontario Energy Board P.O. Box 2319, 27th Floor Toronto, ON M4P 1E4 Dear Ms. Walli: Re: Ontario Power Generation Inc. Reliability Must-Run Agreement for 2007-08 for Lennox Generating Station Board File No. EB-2007-0715 In accordance with Procedural Order No. 1, please find enclosed Board staff’s submission with respect to Ontario Power Generation Inc.’s application and evidence. Yours truly, Original signed by Keith C. Ritchie Project Advisor - Applications Enclosures cc: Ontario Power Generation Inc. Intervenors of Record Submissions of Board Staff on the Application by Ontario Power Generation Inc. for Approval of a Reliability Must-run Agreement for the Lennox Generating Station Board File No.: EB-2007-0715 The following submissions of Board staff are made further to the Board’s October 16, 2007 Procedural Order No. 1 in relation to an application by Ontario Power Generation Inc. (“OPG”) for approval of a reliability must-run agreement (the “2007-08 RMR Contract”) for the Lennox Generating Station (“Lennox”). Board staff’s submissions are focused on the issue of the term of future reliability must-run agreements that may be entered into between OPG and the Independent Electricity System Operator (the “IESO”) in relation to Lennox.
    [Show full text]
  • OPA Sub Appl Evid 20090305
    Updated: March 5, 2009 EB-2008-0312 Table of Contents Page 1 of 2 ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY 2009 REVENUE REQUIREMENT SUBMISSION TABLE OF CONTENTS Description Exhibit Schedule Tab A – ADMINISTRATION A 1 1 Submission A 2 1 2009-2011 Business Plan A 3 1 CECO Annual Report 2008 A 4 1 Supplement to CECO Annual Report 2007 dated May 2008 A 5 1 2007 Annual Report A 6 1 Organizational Charts A 7 1 List of Directives and Letters from the Minister of Energy & Infrastructure 2 Directives from the Minister of Energy & Infrastructure (February 25, 2008 to September 17, 2008) 3 Directives from the Minister of Energy & Infrastructure (December 19, 2008 to January 23, 2009) B – STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES B 1 1 Strategic Objective 1 Plan for an adequate, reliable and sustainable system that integrates conservation, generation and transmission B 2 1 Strategic Objective 2 Plan, procure and manage conservation resources to meet the requirements identified in the IPSP and promote sustainable conservation practices that contribute to a culture of conservation B 3 1 Strategic Objective 3 Plan and design procurement processes and enter into procurement contracts for generation resources to meet the requirements identified in the IPSP and to embed “best-in-class” contracting practices that support investment in necessary infrastructure and contribute to a sustainable electricity system Updated: March 5, 2009 EB-2008-0312 Table of Contents Page 2 of 2 Description Exhibit Schedule Tab B 4 1 Strategic Objective 4 Identify and assess barriers to the development of economically
    [Show full text]
  • NATURAL GAS-FIRED RESOURCES 1.0 INTRODUCTION the Purpose
    EB-2007-0707 Exhibit D Tab 8 Schedule 1 Page 1 of 30 1 NATURAL GAS-FIRED RESOURCES 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION 3 The purpose of this exhibit is to describe how natural gas-fired resources are used in the 4 Plan. 5 2.0 SUPPLY MIX DIRECTIVE 6 Q. What does the Supply Mix Directive (the “Directive”) state with respect to natural 7 gas-fired resources? 8 A. The Directive states the following: “Maintain the ability to use natural gas capacity at 9 peak times and pursue applications that allow high efficiency and high value use of the 10 fuel”. 11 Q. Which natural gas-fired applications were considered by the OPA in developing 12 the IPSP? 13 A. The OPA considered the following natural gas applications for generating electricity: 1 14 x New generation located close to loads, of various technologies (simple cycle, 2 3 4 15 combined cycle, combined heat and power and fuel cells ); 16 x Continued operation of, or extension to, current facilities, some under contract to the 17 Ontario Electricity Finance Corporation (“OEFC”) or the OPA, and the Lennox 5 18 generating station; and 19 x Conversion of some of the coal-fired generating units to operate on natural gas. 1Simple cycle gas turbines (SCGT) produce electricity from the combustion of natural gas to drive a turbine generator. This is a single-stage process. 2 Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) produce electricity from the combustion of natural gas to drive a turbine generator, with the heat produced in this process producing steam that drives a second turbine generator, and thereby produces additional electricity.
    [Show full text]
  • IESO ORO March07 03.Indd
    THE ONTARIO RELIABILITY OUTLOOK MARCH 2007 VOLUME 2 ISSUE 1 ABOVE: IESO Control Room COVER: Melancthon Wind Project, one of Ontario’s new commercial wind farms. CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 SUPPLY 9 TRANSMISSION 13 CONSERVATION AND DEMAND MANAGEMENT 16 INTERCONNECTED MARKETS 19 OTHER CONCERNS 20 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Transmission towers at sunset. Image courtesy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY of Hydro One. The province’s future electricity reliability the completion of planned supply facilities picture has improved significantly as a result of or in meeting conservation and demand decisions and actions taken since the release of management (CDM) targets. the previous Ontario Reliability Outlook by the The IESO also implemented a number of new Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) market mechanisms designed to address in June, 2006. reliability issues that had surfaced in the About 7,000 megawatts (MW) of new or summer of 2005. These included the Day Ahead refurbished generation has been contracted Commitment Process (DACP), intertie failure to come into service by 2011. The new supply charges and the Emergency Load Reduction will address previously identified concerns in Program (ELRP). Overall, these initiatives specific areas such as Toronto and the western resulted in greater certainty of generator part of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and availability, fewer transaction failures and will contribute to overall improved resource additional flexibility for the IESO in managing adequacy for the province. the reliability of the system. The decision to have the Ontario Power Consultation is underway with a number of Authority (OPA) and the IESO jointly develop stakeholders related to overall system and a coal transition plan to meet the government’s local reliability needs.
    [Show full text]
  • Regulated Price Plan
    Regulated Price Plan Price Report November 1, 2012 to October 31, 2013 Ontario Energy Board October 17, 2012 Executive Summary This report contains the electricity commodity prices under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP) for the period November 1, 2012 through October 31, 2013. The prices were developed using the methodology described in the Regulated Price Plan Manual (RPP Manual). In accordance with the applicable regulation, the Board must forecast the cost of supplying RPP consumers and ensure that RPP prices reflect this cost. RPP prices are reviewed by the Board every six months to determine if they need to be adjusted. In broad terms, the methodology used to develop RPP prices has two essential steps: 1. Forecasting the total RPP supply cost for 12 months, and 2. Establishing prices to recover the forecast RPP supply cost from RPP consumers over the 12-month period. The calculation of the total RPP electricity supply cost involves several separate forecasts, including forecasts of: o the hourly market price of electricity; o the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers; o the electricity supplied by those assets of Ontario Power Generation (OPG) whose price is regulated; o the costs related to the contracts signed by non-utility generators (NUGs) with the former Ontario Hydro and the costs associated with certain OPG coal facilities1; o the costs of the supply contracts, and conservation and demand management (CDM) initiatives of the Ontario Power Authority (OPA); and o the net variance account balance (as of October 31, 2012) carried by the OPA. The market-based price for electricity used by RPP consumers reflects both the hourly market price of electricity and the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers.
    [Show full text]
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Various Methods of Power Generation in Ontario
    GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH VARIOUS METHODS OF POWER GENERATION IN ONTARIO October 2016 Prepared For: Ontario Power Generation Inc. 700 University Avenue Toronto, Ontario M5G 1Z5 6605 Hurontario Street , Suite 500, Mississauga, Ontario ▪ L5T 0A3 Tel: 905-364-7800 ▪ Fax: 905-364-7816 ▪ www.intrinsik.com DISCLAIMER Intrinsik Corp. (hereafter referred to as Intrinsik) provided this report to Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG) solely for the purpose stated in the report. Intrinsik does not accept any responsibility for the use of this report for any purpose other than as specifically intended by OPG. Intrinsik does not have, and does not accept, any responsibility or duty of care whether based in negligence or otherwise, in relation to the use of this report in whole or in part by any third party. Any alternate use, including that by a third party, or any reliance on or decision made based on this report, are the sole responsibility of the alternative user or third party. Intrinsik does not accept responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions based on this report. Intrinsik makes no representation, warranty or condition with respect to this report or the information contained herein other than that it has exercised reasonable skill, care and diligence in accordance with accepted practice and usual standards of thoroughness and competence for the profession of toxicology and environmental science to assess and evaluate information acquired during the preparation of this report. Any information or facts provided by others, and referred to or utilized in the preparation of this report, is believed to be accurate without any independent verification or confirmation by Intrinsik.
    [Show full text]
  • Renewable Energy
    Regulated Price Plan Price Report May 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015 Ontario Energy Board April 16, 2014 Executive Summary This report contains the electricity commodity prices under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP) for the period May 1, 2014 through April 30, 2015. The prices were developed using the methodology described in the Regulated Price Plan Manual (RPP Manual). In accordance with the applicable regulation, the Board must forecast the cost of supplying RPP consumers and ensure that RPP prices reflect this cost. RPP prices are reviewed by the Board every six months to determine if they need to be adjusted. In broad terms, the methodology used to develop RPP prices has two essential steps: 1. Forecasting the total RPP supply cost for 12 months, and 2. Establishing prices to recover the forecast RPP supply cost from RPP consumers over the 12-month period. The calculation of the total RPP electricity supply cost involves several separate forecasts, including forecasts of: o the hourly market price of electricity; o the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers; o the electricity supplied by those assets of Ontario Power Generation (OPG) whose price is regulated; o the costs related to the contracts signed by non-utility generators (NUGs) with the former Ontario Hydro and the costs associated with certain OPG coal facilities1; o the costs of the supply contracts, and conservation and demand management (CDM) initiatives of the Ontario Power Authority (OPA); and o the net variance account balance (as of April 30, 2014) carried by the OPA. The market-based price for electricity used by RPP consumers reflects both the hourly market price of electricity and the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers.
    [Show full text]
  • Ontario Power Authority Ipsp and East-West Tie Consultation Documents May 9, 2012
    Filed: May 9, 2012, EB-2011-0140, OPA Consultation Activities Record, Page 1 of 774 (Table of Contents) ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY IPSP AND EAST-WEST TIE CONSULTATION DOCUMENTS MAY 9, 2012 SECTION DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION & PAGE # 001 IPSP Introduction Letters Sent by the Letters sent by the OPA to 132 First Nation communities and 21 p. 3 OPA to EWT List Communities (May Métis communities identified by the Ministry of Energy. Included 10, 2011) here are only the letters sent to the communities identified by the Ministry of Energy in its May 31, 2011 direction regarding the East‐ West Tie consultations. 002 IPSP Planning and Consultation Guide This 94‐page document was prepared by the OPA to provide a p. 39 general overview of the proposed Integrated Power System Plan. It was attached to each May 10, 2011 letter sent to First Nations and Métis communities. 003 Summary of Mail Receipts for IPSP This document summarizes the delivery status of the IPSP p. 133 Introduction Letters Sent by the OPA Introduction Letters sent by the OPA to EWT List Communities sent by registered mail. 004 Registered Mail Delivery These documents are the print‐outs regarding the delivery status p. 135 Confirmations for IPSP Introduction of the IPSP Introduction Letters of May 10, 2011 sent by the OPA. Letters of May 10, 2011 005 Canada Post Registered Mail Tracking Registered mail tracking stickers issued by Canada Post. p. 149 Stickers for May 10, 2011 OPA IPSP Letters to EWT First Nations and Métis 006 East‐West Tie Consultation Direction Letter from the Ministry of Energy delegating procedural aspects p.
    [Show full text]
  • 3.05 Electricity Power System Planning
    Chapter 3 Ministry of Energy Section 3.05 Electricity Power System Planning 1.0 Background 1.2 Key Players Involved The entities involved in power system planning in Ontario include the Ministry of Energy (Ministry), 1.1 What Is Electricity Power the Independent Electricity System Operator System Planning? (IESO), the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), Ontario Electricity power system planning involves man- Power Generation (OPG), Hydro One, a major aging the long-term demand for electricity and transmitter and distributor (see Section 3.06 of deciding how to meet that demand through vari- this year’s Annual Report for our audit of Hydro ous generation, conservation and transmission One’s Management of Electricity Transmission solutions: and Distribution Assets), four other small licenced Generation—Ontario has a diverse mix of transmitters and approximately 70 local distribu- Chapter 3 • VFM Section 3.05 • energy sources (called the “supply mix”) tion companies. Figure 1 shows the key roles and including nuclear, hydropower, natural gas, responsibilities of each. wind, solar and bioenergy. The Ministry and the IESO are the key players in • Conservation—Ontario encourages consum- power system planning at the provincial level. Their ers to reduce or shift consumption away from plans aim to ensure adequate supply, bulk transmis- peak times and to use energy more efficiently, sion planning and interaction with local distribu- with the intent to avoid the need for increased tion companies. Under the Electricity Act, 1998, the electricity generation and to avoid or defer the Minister has the authority to issue directives (which need for significant investment in new electri- require cabinet approval) on the supply mix, and city infrastructure.
    [Show full text]
  • (MAS) RH-001-2013 Tariff Proposals Application Transcanada 1.14
    Market Area Shippers (MAS) TransCanada 1.14 RH-001-2013 Tariff Proposals Application Response to Information Request IR No. TransCanada 1.14 Topic: Reference: (i) Written Evidence of Henning, page 5, lines 17-19 and page 6, lines 18-20. Preamble: At the referenced portion of the evidence, Mr. Henning states, “These include a 2010 report commissioned by the Ontario Energy Board Staff that examined North American natural gas markets” and “ICF’s analysis, presented in various reports filed with the Ontario Energy Board and with the Régie de l’énergie demonstrated that acquiring supplies through Dawn…” Request: (a) Please provide a copy of each of the referenced reports. Response: (a) See TCPL 1.14 Attachments 1, 2, and 3 August 16, 2013 Page 1 of 1 EB-2012-0433 Schedule 4-7 Page 1 of 36 Impact of Changing Supply Dynamics on the Ontario Natural Gas Market Prepared by: ICF International 9300 Lee Highway Fairfax, VA USA ICF Contacts January 30, 2013 Bruce Henning [email protected] 703-218-2739 Prepared under Direction of Counsel Michael Sloan Prepared for: [email protected] (703)218-2758 Torys LLP 79 Wellington Street W #3000 Toronto, Ontario Briana Adams EB-2012-0433 Schedule 4-7 Page 2 of 36 Warranties and Representations. ICF endeavors to provide information and projections consistent with standard practices in a professional manner. ICF MAKES NO WARRANTIES, HOWEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED (INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY WARRANTIES OR MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE), AS TO THIS MATERIAL. Specifically but without limitation, ICF makes no warranty or guarantee regarding the accuracy of any forecasts, estimates, or analyses, or that such work products will be accepted by any legal or regulatory body.
    [Show full text]
  • Integrated Assessment of Water Use and Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Canada’S Electricity Generation and Oil and Gas Sectors
    Integrated assessment of water use and greenhouse gas footprints of Canada’s electricity generation and oil and gas sectors by Ankit Gupta A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Alberta © Ankit Gupta, 2020 Abstract The energy sector is responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, water withdrawal, and water consumption. There are strong dependences between energy production and water use, and the adoption of more clean energy production technologies will affect water use. Such technological changes are not well understood. There is very little research assessing the water use associated with clean energy pathways in the energy sector. The objective of this research is to understand and evaluate the water-use impacts of Canada’s renewable energy transition. This research developed an integrated energy-water model to assess clean energy scenarios and the resulting technology penetration, water use, and cumulative and marginal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement costs. The energy sectors considered in this work are the oil and gas sector and the electricity generation sector. The Canadian Water Evaluation and Planning model (WEAP-Canada) was developed and integrated with the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP-Canada) system model to determine integrated water-greenhouse gas footprints for the electricity generation sector and the oil and gas sector for the years 2005-2050. This research develops integrated water-greenhouse gas footprints for future electricity generation mix pathways in Canada with a focus on deep decarbonization. The LEAP model of Canada’s electricity system was developed by using technology system capacity requirements, technology capacity addition, and technology and economic inputs to provide electricity generation technology capacities and generation, system costs, and GHG emissions.
    [Show full text]
  • Ontario Market Assessment
    Regulated Price Plan Price Report November 1, 2013 to October 31, 2014 Ontario Energy Board October 17, 2013 Executive Summary This report contains the electricity commodity prices under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP) for the period November 1, 2013 through October 31, 2014. The prices were developed using the methodology described in the Regulated Price Plan Manual (RPP Manual). In accordance with the applicable regulation, the Board must forecast the cost of supplying RPP consumers and ensure that RPP prices reflect this cost. RPP prices are reviewed by the Board every six months to determine if they need to be adjusted. In broad terms, the methodology used to develop RPP prices has two essential steps: 1. Forecasting the total RPP supply cost for 12 months, and 2. Establishing prices to recover the forecast RPP supply cost from RPP consumers over the 12-month period. The calculation of the total RPP electricity supply cost involves several separate forecasts, including forecasts of: o the hourly market price of electricity; o the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers; o the electricity supplied by those assets of Ontario Power Generation (OPG) whose price is regulated; o the costs related to the contracts signed by non-utility generators (NUGs) with the former Ontario Hydro and the costs associated with certain OPG coal facilities1; o the costs of the supply contracts, and conservation and demand management (CDM) initiatives of the Ontario Power Authority (OPA); and o the net variance account balance (as of October 31, 2013) carried by the OPA. The market-based price for electricity used by RPP consumers reflects both the hourly market price of electricity and the electricity consumption pattern of RPP consumers.
    [Show full text]