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The Ontario Reliability Outlook THE ONTARIO RELIABILITY OUTLOOK DECEMBER 2007 VOLUME 2 ISSUE 2 ABOVE: The IESO provides assessments of the reliability of Ontario’s electricity system through its 18-Month Outlook and Ontario Reliability Outlook. COVER: Ontario’s electricity system is monitored 24 hours a day, seven days a week from the IESO control room. CONTENTS 1 EXECUtivE SUMMarY 4 SUPPLY 9 TraNSMISSION 15 CONSErvatiON AND DEMAND MaNAGEMENT 18 ENHANciNG RELiabiLitY THROUGH MarKETS 20 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDatiONS The reliable supply of electricity is a cornerstone EXECUTIVE SUMMARY of Ontario’s economy. Ontario’s longer-term reliability picture is mance from generation and transmission positive. Generation, transmission and demand- facilities, increased demand management side initiatives necessary to maintain future efforts and more moderate weather. reliability have been identified and address the Through regular issues of the ORO, the areas of concern highlighted by the Independent IESO reports on progress of the inter-related Electricity System Operator (IESO) in previous generation, transmission and conservation issues of the Ontario Reliability Outlook (ORO). projects underway to meet future reliability Going forward, the focus will need to shift to requirements. Future Outlooks will also track ensuring that these projects are implemented the progress of the various projects identified in in time to meet needs as well as addressing the the Ontario Power Authority’s (OPA) Integrated integration and operational challenges of a Power System Plan (IPSP) and will assess their changing generation mix. impact on future reliability. Delays to the scheduled in-service dates for Phase One of the Goreway Generating Station in New Supply Being Introduced the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and unplanned Almost 4,000 MW of new gas-fired supply is outages at the Pickering Nuclear Station resulted expected to come into service over the next in more than 1,500 megawatts (MW) of sup- three years. This includes more than 1,000 MW ply being unavailable over the summer of 2007. at the Greenfield Energy Centre near Sarnia, Despite this, there was no major disruption 540 MW from the Portlands Energy Centre in in service as the IESO continued to reliably Toronto, 860 MW from the Sithe Goreway facil- operate the power system with strong perfor- ity in Brampton and 600 MW from the Halton THE ONtariO RELiabiLitY OUTLOOK 1 Hills Generating Station northeast of Milton. The IESO discussed operability matters with Approximately 630 MW of grid-connected wind the OPA throughout the preparation of the power is also expected to come into service IPSP. Following the publication of that plan, before the end of 2008. the IESO is undertaking an operability review, simulating future operating conditions under Four hundred and seventy five megawatts of the proposed supply portfolio to assess whether wind resources are currently installed in the there is enough operating flexibility to meet province and wind power is expected to take the ever-changing demand for electricity and on an increasingly significant presence in continue to operate the electricity system Ontario’s supply mix over the next decade. reliably. The IESO will release the findings This could present future operating challenges of the study during the first part of 2008. given the intermittent nature of wind and the fact that the highest levels of wind output do Transmission not often correlate with demand peaks. Since the publication of the last ORO, the IESO’s Wind Timely implementation of proposed transmission Integration Standing Committee has developed facilities remains a key component to addressing recommendations and implemented decisions future reliability needs and a major risk to the on operational and forecasting issues aimed at successful implementation of the IPSP. reducing barriers to the successful integration Over the next decade transmission enhance- of wind. Through collaboration, the IESO antici- ments, some of which are major and extensive, pates that wind-related issues will be resolved must be implemented in: in a timely manner. • Southwestern Ontario to deliver additional Operability of the Power System nuclear and wind supply from the Bruce area The IESO previously identified operability as • Northern Ontario (including the north-south the key parameter for future supply mix. Since transmission corridor) to enable the expansion that time, the OPA has submitted the IPSP to of hydroelectric capability and wind projects the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) for approval. • The GTA in order to improve reliability of Ontario’s future supply includes increased supply to Toronto – Canada’s largest city amounts of less flexible generation, resources • York Region, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge- that cannot as easily be ramped up to meet Guelph and Windsor-Essex to enhance the increasing load or reduced as demand drops adequacy of local load supply off. Flexibility is particularly important in the morning hours when significant increases in • South-central Ontario, to reconfigure the demand occur and in the late evening hours Cherrywood and Claireville stations to when demand quickly drops off. improve reliability at these critical facilities In addition to wind and solar generation, resources include new and refurbished nuclear, co-generation, and combined cycle gas generators that have high minimum loading points. 2 INDEPENDENT ELEctricitY SYSTEM OPEratOR The development of new transmission For residential and small business consumers, facilities in southwestern Ontario remains a Ontario’s Smart Metering Initiative can help high priority. These new facilities are needed enhance the reliability of the power system by to deliver the planned and future increases providing customers with the tools they need from the expected wind developments in to help shift their electricity use to off-peak that area and the expanded capacity of the hours. This shift in use would reduce the need Bruce nuclear station resulting from planned for expensive forms of generation to meet refurbishments. Reinforcements of existing demand. The initiative calls for smart meters facilities can increase transfer capability out of to be installed in homes and small businesses the Bruce nuclear complex in the short term but throughout the province by 2010. the new 500 kilovolt (kV) Bruce to Milton line As conservation and demand response proposed by Hydro One is needed to deliver measures become more prominent, the IESO the full capability of the Bruce refurbishment will closely monitor their contribution during and the expected new wind resources. peak demand in order to reliably and efficiently Until new transmission facilities are operable schedule resources and operate the system. in the identified areas, the IESO will need to operate existing facilities near their maximum Approvals Process capabilities, with little margin for unexpected The filing of the IPSP with the OEB represented events and requiring complex arrangements a major milestone in the program to address and procedures to do routine maintenance on Ontario’s supply needs over the next two critical facilities. A number of local transmission decades. However, as has been identified in initiatives are also needed to maintain local previous Outlooks, the IESO remains concerned reliability in areas throughout Ontario. about the uncertainty around the length of Transmission enhancements are required to approvals process, which presents risks to enable the replacement of the coal-fired stations the timely implementation of the planned with cleaner resources. generation and transmission projects. Substantial work is underway by a number Conservation and Demand Management of stakeholders, including the provincial Addressing Ontario’s supply challenge over government, to address the inefficiencies in the the next 20 years will not only require new current approvals process. Given the risks to generation and transmission facilities, but also reliability, there is an urgent need to implement achieving substantial load reduction through a comprehensive strategy for streamlining the electricity conservation. relevant regulatory approvals process. The Ontario government has set aggressive load Approvals process improvements should ensure reduction targets for the near future, targeting appropriate public review of infrastructure a 2,700 MW reduction in peak demand by 2010. proposals, while reducing the redundancy of While conservation measures are a cleaner the existing processes and ensuring reasonable way to help address Ontario’s supply needs, and defined timelines to allow the projects to be achieving this target may require fundamental implemented when needed. changes in the way electricity is used. THE ONtariO RELiabiLitY OUTLOOK 3 The Portlands Energy Centre in Toronto is currently SUppLY under construction. Progress continues to be made in the development as lower overall demand resulting from of new resources to meet Ontario’s electricity increased demand management efforts and supply needs. Delays in new generation projects more moderate weather. have underscored the importance of managing Looking ahead to the summer of 2008, the the integration of the new generation fleet into timely completion of Phase One of the Portlands the system with sufficient reserve margins to Energy Centre, as well as the continued avail- ensure reliability. ability of local autotransformers and generation from the Pickering nuclear units will be essential Immediate Reliability Concerns to maintaining
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