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Morning Comments Thursday, March 11, 2021 | daily publication Morning Comments Equity Market, Poland Research Department: Michał Marczak +48 22 438 24 01 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 Jakub Szkopek +48 22 438 24 03 Aleksandra Szklarczyk +48 22 438 24 04 Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05 Paweł Szpigiel +48 22 438 24 06 Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 Piotr Bogusz +48 22 438 24 08 Piotr Poniatowski +48 22 438 24 09 DJIA 32,297.0 +1.46% FTSE 100 6,725.6 -0.07% Copper (LME) 8,861.5 +0.93% S&P 500 3,898.8 +0.60% WIG20 2,003.6 +0.47% Crude Oil (Brent) 67.87 +1.42% NASDAQ 13,068.8 -0.04% BUX 43,579.4 +0.62% USD/PLN 3.8342 -0.09% DAX 14,540.3 +0.71% PX 1,070.9 +0.51% EUR/PLN 4.5738 +0.15% CAC 40 5,990.6 +1.11% PLBonds10 1.543 -0.030 EUR/USD 1.1929 +0.24% Company & Sector News ING BSK ING board recommends no dividend from 2020 Reduce – 2020-11-19 In market filling ING informed that board recommends to divide net profit from 2020 (PLN Target price: PLN 143.10 1337.6m) and unallocated profit from previous years (PLN 495.7m) into reserve capital in amount of PLN 675.4m, while leaving PLN 1157.9m unallocated. Up to now, we have assumed that ING will payout some minor dividend in 2021 (DY<2%), however it was rather symbolic. Leaving unallocated PLN 8.90 per share leaves hope for bigger future dividends. (M. Konarski, M. Lemańczyk) Oil&Gas US products’ and crude inventories still under Texas freeze impact EIA report showed that US domestic crude inventories increased by 13.8 mmboe, whereas market consensus stood at 2.5 mmboe. It was driven by higher net imports and lower refinery runs (utilization rate went up from 56% to 69.0% but still were below 5Y average at 87.0). Numbers are of course distorted by extreme weather conditions and are not a good proxy for coming weeks. Gasoline stocks decreased by 11.8 mmboe (expectations at -2.9 mmboe) and are 6% lower yoy. Diesel inventories dropped for the seventh straight week (-5.5 mmboe vs -2.9 mmboe drop expected). Gasoline consumption 4-weeks moving average dynamics yoy stood at - 11% with last week deliveries increasing by 7% whereas diesel consumption 4-weeks moving average indicates yoy increase by 3.1%. US crude production rebounded to 10.9 mb/d. Another massive products’ inventories drop supported refining stocks yesterday, however in our view DOE data are distorted by weather conditions and are not a good proxy for mid term. (K. Kliszcz) Tauron Tauron may consider purchase of some CEZ assets in Poland Suspended – 2020-12-08 Tauron took a decision to extend the analyses related to the Heat Line of Business to include the option of a potential acquisition of selected assets of ČEZ Group in Poland, with particular emphasis on ČEZ Chorzów. It was a quite quick journey from idea of selling heating unit to decision to expand the segment by acquisitions. Market is however waiting for any update on Polish utilities transition process and such statements are rather neutral. (K. Kliszcz) ▲ Asseco Poland Preliminary net income for 4Q2020 Buy – 2020-09-02 Asseco Poland released information on the estimated net result for Q4 2020, which amounted to ► Target price: PLN 80.70 PLN 133.9m. The consensus was PLN 108.4m, our forecast was PLN 107.6m. In this way, Asseco Poland would have a better than expected net result by 23.5% and 24.4%, respectively. Asseco Poland did not inform about any major one-off events previously, therefore we assume ▼ that the reported result is organically generated in major part and we expect a positive reaction to the result. The final value of the net result will be disclosed in the report on March 23, 2021. Additionally, we would like to point out that the net profit for 2020 is nearly 25% higher y/y. In our opinion, the market may now assume an increase of the dividend. If Asseco paid, let’s say, a 10% higher dividend, i.e. PLN 3.31, DYield would currently amount to 4.9%, what places Asseco Poland as a company with a very high dividend compared to the peer group. P/E’20 of ACP is 14,0x, materially lower than peers (median at 20.8x). (P. Szpigiel) Amica Risk of production stoppage in the absence of key materials Underweight – 2021-02-26 Rzeczpospolita informs that manufacturers of white goods have officially taken water in their mouths, but admit that there is a serious problem with stainless steel on the market. - Steel mills reduced or completely extinguished production, expecting a long crisis. Meanwhile, the downtime in the industry was very short and now there is a shortage of raw material everywhere - says one of the manufacturers of household appliances. The problem is already visible and so far there is no chance of calming down the situation. - For the first time, we are talking about a scenario where plants can stop production due to a lack of components. Potentially negative. We believe that due to raw materials inflation (steel, components, transport) the company results will contract in 2021 year. The company will probably announce increase in CAPEX and marketing expenses in 2021 year. (J. Szkopek) Cognor Increased involvement by the President of the Management Board Buy – 2021-03-05 Cognor announced that it had received information from the attorney of the President of the Target price: PLN 3.19 Management Board, Przemysław Owockowski, about the acquisition by PS Holdco Spółka z o.o. - a subsidiary of Mr. Przemysław Sztukowski on 4 and 5 March 2021 in total 4.7 mln shares of the Company. The purchase is related to the conversion of bonds into shares at the price of PLN 1.61. (J. Szkopek) Copper Copper rises on U.S. stimulus cheer, Chile supply threat Copper prices rose on Thursday as the United States moved to pass a $1.9-trillion stimulus bill, while a potential strike in top producer Chile threatened supply. workers at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile voted to reject the company's latest contract offer, paving the way for a strike and threatening the already fragile mine supply of the metal. Positive for KGHM, which stood under pressure in recent weeks. For more information please visit link. (J. Szkopek) Zinc Global zinc demand to outpace production growth in 2021, narrowing surplus The global zinc surplus is likely to shrink in 2021 as demand growth outpaces any increase in production, according to Russian copper and zinc producer UGMK. UGMK said China will still need to import more zinc concentrate as domestic extraction of the raw material declines. Last year's figures suggest world zinc supply was in surplus by 620,000 mt, but that is likely to shrink to 470,000 mt in 2021, according to UGMK. UGMK put zinc prices over 2021-2025 in the region of $2,500-$2,900/mt. Positive for Stalprodukt. For more information please visit link. (J. Szkopek) CD Projekt The strategy will be published by the end of March 2021 Hold – 2021-03-02 ▪ According to an interview given by the CEO of CD Projekt, the company's strategy is to be Target price: PLN 232.00 published by the end of March 2021. During the presentation, the board will comment on the release of Cyberpunk 2077, talk about plans for 2021 and beyond. ▪ The board does not know if the release of Patch 1.2 for Cyberpunk 2077 will bring the game back to Sony's store. ▪ On the occasion of the release of 2020 results, the Board will give an update on Cyberpunk 2077 sales figures. ▪ CD Projekt's stock price has fallen significantly over the past month. The publication of the strategy may be an event that some investors may want to discount positively in the short term. (P. Bogusz) Movie Games Today at 18:00 will be the release of the game Lust From Beyond ▪ The game Lust From Beyond is currently ranked #38 on the Steam Global Wishlist (+2 W/W). According to the latest information, the wishlist for the game is 185,000 players. ▪ The number of followers for the game is 22,960 (+227 D/D). ▪ PlayWay holds 33,43% stake in Movie Games. ▪ The game has a high wishlist, nevertheless the horror genre is selling slightly worse than other genres. This is one of the two major releases from Movie Games in 2021, the other major release being Alaskan Truck Simulator. Cross-promotion with other PLW Group titles has been planned for Lust From Beyond, which should support sales. (P. Bogusz) 2 Quarterly Earnings Results Eurocash Adjusted results below our expectations Buy – 2020-07-02 ▪ Eurocash delivered headline 2020 Q4 EBITDA figure (including IFRS 16) above our Target price: PLN 19.90 expectations on recognition of one-offs related to Frisco shares valuation (PLN 44m) and settlement of VAT deposit (PLN 43.5m). The balance on other operating activities amounted to PLN 43.5m in Q4 2020 vs. PLN 8m in Q4 2019. Q4 2020 results adjusted for one-offs are below our expectations. ▪ Sales revenue for Q4 2020 was up 0.5% y/y which stems from increase y/y in projekty, which offset sales decrease y/y in retail (sales decrease y/y in Inmedio and own Supermarkets) and wholesale (sales decrease in C&C Distribution and Food Service, which offset sales increase y/ y in Tobacco).
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