Cez Group: the Leader in Power Markets of Central and Southeastern Europe
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CEZ GROUP: THE LEADER IN POWER MARKETS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE Investment story, April 2019 AGENDA . Introduction, strategic priorities 1 . Traditional Generation 9 . Regulated and New Energy 18 . Financial performance 29 . Summary 35 . Backup 37 . Electricity market fundamentals 38 . Project of new nuclear in the Czech Republic 45 . EU ETS, derogation scheme in the CR 46 . Environmental, social and governance 48 . Regulation of distribution 52 . Renewables support schemes 56 . 2018 generation outlook 58 . Latest and historical financial results 59 1 CEZ GROUP RANKS AMONG THE TOP 10 LARGEST UTILITY COMPANIES IN EUROPE Top 10 European power utilities Top 10 European power utilities Number of customers in 2018, in millions Market capitalization in EUR bn, as of April 2, 2019 1 Enel 70.4 1 Enel 57.7 2 EDF 51.0 35.1 2 Iberdrola 3 Iberdrola 33.3 3 EDF 38.1 4 Innogy 22.0 4 Engie 32.9 5 E.ON 21.0 5 E.ON 22.0 6 Engie 20.6 6 Fortum 17.0 7 Vattenfall 11.0 7 Verbund 14.9 8 EDP 8.0 8 RWE 14.6 9 CEZ Group 6.9 9 EDP 13.0 10 EnBW 5.5 10 CEZ Group 11.2 2 Source: Bloomberg, Annual reports, companies’ websites and presentations CEZ GROUP IS AN INTERNATIONAL UTILITY WITH A STRONG POSITION IN CEE AND GROWING PRESENCE IN WESTERN EUROPE CEZ Group in the Czech Republic CEZ Group in Poland . Mining . Traditional Generation . Traditional Generation . Renewables . Renewables . ESCO, Sales . Distribution . ESCO, Sales CEZ Group in Romania . Renewables . Distribution CEZ Group in Germany . ESCO, Sales . Renewables . ESCO CEZ Group in Bulgaria (Sold, awaiting settlement) . Distribution CEZ Group in France . Sales . Renewables . Renewables CEZ Group in Turkey* CEZ Group in Slovakia . Distribution . ESCO . Sales . Traditional Generation . Renewables 3 *(50% stake in SEDAS through AkCez, 37.36% stake in Akenerji) CZECH REPUBLIC IS THE MOST IMPORTANT MARKET FOR CEZ GROUP, IT IS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED THERE Lignite mining Generation Transmisson Distribution Supply 28% 53% 17.5 TWh CEZ 67% 65% 20.9 million tons 58.8 TWh 36.0 TWh 100% 67.0 TWh 72% 47% 44.7 TWh Others 33% 35% 18.3 million tons 29.2 TWh 19.7 TWh . CEZ fully owns the . Other competitors . The Czech . Other competitors – largest Czech are individual IPPs transmission grid is E.ON, PRE (41% mining company owned and operated held by EnBW), (SD) covering 71% by CEPS, 100% Bohemia Energy, of CEZ’ s Lignite owned by the Czech Innogy, Centropol needs state Energy . Remaining 3 coal mining companies are privately owned 4 Source: CEZ, ERU, MPO, data for 2018 SEGMENTAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO EBITDA IN 2018 2018 EBITDA CZK 49.5bn ~45% Traditional Generation Regulated and New Energy 2018 EBITDA 55% 2018 EBITDA 22.2 27.3 4% Other * 1.9 Foreign 8% Generation 3.2 18% 12% Foreign Generation 16.6 Czech 75% 96% Distribution 72% 19.7 Czech Republic 82% Republic Mining 17% 3.8 Sales 16% 4.3 Segmental Geographical Segmental Geographical split (%) split (%) split (%) split (%) OPERATIONS TEAM DEVELOPMENT TEAM . The most effective use of our traditional assets . Ensuring future growth for CEZ based on ESCO . Proactively adjusting to the new energy environment activities, decentralized energy, distribution and . Generating sufficient cash flows to develop new renewables with focus on end customers activities and pay dividends to our shareholders . Acquisitions and organic growth in stable countries 5 *including eliminations KEY BUSINESS DRIVERS OF CEZ GROUP Traditional Generation Regulated and New Energy . Benefits from growing power . Benefits from RAB growth prices….. 10% increase by 2020 in Czech . Electricity price approx. 40% upside* distribution from the beginning of the year 2018 . Additions of renewables capacity . ….. as it is positively geared toward . Pipeline of 220 MW of wind parks in growing price of CO2 allowances France, 39 MW in Poland and projects . CEZ emission intensity 0.39 t/MWh is with potential up to 193 MW in well below 0.6 t/MWh intensity of Germany marginal coal plant . Acquisition of additional development projects in WE are in focus . Stable CAPEX . Upgrade of lignite fleet completed . Expansion of energy services . Current Capex mostly maintenance offering („ESCO“) related . Expected 2019 revenues of CZK 20bn through organic growth and acquisitions 6 *84% of CEZ 2019 production hedged at 35.8 EUR/MWh, EEX CAL2019 closed at 51.0 EUR/MWh on Dec 31, 2018 CEZ GROUP’S STRATEGY AIMS AT MAXIMISING CASH FLOW FROM ITS TRADITIONAL BUSINESS AND INCREASING PRESENCE IN RENEWABLES, ESCO AND DISTRIBUTED ENERGY THREE PILLARS OF CEZ GROUP’S STRATEGY I Strategy execution split between Operations and Development Be among the best in the operation Teams (including setting of Quantitative goals until 2020) of conventional electricity generation and proactively respond to the Operations Team – additional CZK 3 bn EBITDA by 2020* challenges of the 21st century . Cost reductions and efficiency increase in support services . Power Generation and Mining optimization II . Strengthening position in the Heat market Offer a wide range of products and services to customers, which Development Team - additional CZK 6 bn EBITDA by address their energy needs 2020* . Acquisitions and Development in Renewable Generation, ESCO and distribution in Western and Central Europe III . Acquisition potential up to CEZ Group´s leverage of 3x Net Strengthen and consolidate our Debt / EBITDA position in the region of Central and Western Europe, especially in . Optimization of Distribution operations and Sales to retail Renewables . Venture-type investments in Energy related areas in Europe 7 * EBITDA improvement upon the Business plan (from Sept 2015) for 2020 CEZ IS COMMITTED TO GENERATE CARBON NEUTRAL POWER BY 2050, WITH 50% REDUCTION IN INSTALLED COAL CAPACITY BY 2025 Coal fired power plants will be gradually closed Expected development of installed capacity in coal (GW) . Coal fired power plants currently represent 46% of capacity and 44% of generation volume in 2018 and their revenues 7.8 GW 3.9 GW are less than 30% of total . Coal fired capacity will more than half from 7.8 GW in 2016 Hard to 3.9 GW by 2025 2.8 coal New/ CEZ is expanding its footprint in renewables, not 1.6 upgraded lignite planning any new coal fired power plants 1.0 . CEZ’s strategy focuses on power generation capacity growth in renewables expanding its currently running 1700 3.4 2.2 Lignite MW renewable generation capacity (half of which built in 0.7 the last decade) 2016 2025 Coal extracted is mainly used in own power plants . CEZ Group produced 20.9 mil tones of coal, out of which only 28% is sold externally . Share of coal mining and related activities (except power generation) on CEZ group’s revenues is 2% only CEZ Group has reduced CO2 emissions by 43% since 2007 . In 2018 CEZ generated more than half of its electricity at zero-emission facilities . CEZ Group made a commitment to generate carbon neutral electricity before 2050 8 AGENDA . Introduction, strategic priorities 1 . Traditional Generation 9 . Regulated and New Energy 18 . Financial performance 29 . Summary 35 . Backup 37 . Electricity market fundamentals 38 . Project of new nuclear in the Czech Republic 45 . EU ETS, derogation scheme in the CR 46 . Environmental, social and governance 48 . Regulation of distribution 52 . Renewables support schemes 56 . 2018 generation outlook 58 . Latest and historical financial results 59 9 CEZ GROUP OPERATES LOW COST GENERATION FLEET Installed capacity and generation (2018) 14,960 MW 63.1 TWh 3% CCGT 940 1.9 . Coal power plants are using mostly 4.2 lignite from CEZ’s own mine 1,557 7% Hard coal (71% of lignite needs sourced internally, remaining volume through long-term 23.6 supply contracts) Lignite / 5,314 37% . Nuclear plants have very low Brown coal operational costs 4,290 Nuclear 29.9 47% Hydro* and CEZ has a long-term competitive 2,858 renewables 6% advantage of low and relatively stable 3.5 generation costs Installed Generation, Share on capacity gross generation 10 * Hydro 1,985 MW, out of which 1,170 MW in pumped-storage hydro CEZ GROUP COMPLETED UPGRADE OF ITS LIGNITE FLEET, GOING FORWARD MAINTENANCE CAPEX ONLY CAPEX development CZK bn EUR bn 90 Upgrade of Other 80 the lignite fleet Mining 70 Distribution Generation 60 50 Total CAPEX during 2019-2023 40 (in CZK bn): 164.3 Generation–traditional* 65.4 30 Generation – new** 5.4 energy 20 Distribution *** 63.0 10 Mining 15.8 Other (including sales) 14.7 0 *Substantial increase in 2019 primarily given by investments in Melnik (supply of heat to Prague) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2019F ** primarily French and Polish wind farms *** of which CZK 7.6 bn outside Czech Rep. 11 Exchange rate EUR/CZK = 25.7 LOW COST AND UPGRADED GENERATION PORTFOLIO IS A GREAT ADVANTAGE IN THE CURRENT PRICE ENVIRONMENT Development of electricity price Cash fuel costs by technology (year-ahead baseload, €/MWh) (€/MWh) 60 55 Current electricity 50 price 45 New / refurbished 40 power plants 35 44 44 30 28-29 25 20 7 Nuclear* Own lignite** Hard Coal*** CCGT**** Czech Republic Germany Drivers of electricity price . hard coal prices being mainly driven by levels of Chinese coal imports and shale gas discoveries in the US . carbon prices rising due to implementation of MSR in 2019 and increase of switching costs . growing capacity of subsidized renewables . stagnating electricity demand * Nuclear fuel costs + CZK55/MWh payment for fuel storage ** Cash cost of extracting own lignite, 42/39.5% efficiency, 11,5 GJ/t calorific value, carbon 12 at 21.5 EUR/t,