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Risk Analysts Are Getting It Wrong in Pakistan. Fears of an Islamic State, Or Loose Nukes

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Risk Analysts Are Getting It Wrong in Pakistan. Fears of an Islamic State, Or Loose Nukes THEWORLDTODAY.ORG FEBRUARY 2008 PAKISTAN PAGE 7 CHAIR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND TERRORISM STUDIES, KING’S COLLEGE LONDON. THIS IS BASED ON HIS ANATOL LIEVEN LATEST BOOK, Ethical Realism: A Vision For America’s Role In The World, Vintage Books, CO-AUTHORED WITH JOHN HULSMAN Real and Imagınary Rısks Risk analysts are getting it wrong in Pakistan. Fears of an Islamic state, or loose nukes – the capture of the nation’s arsenal by extremists – will only come about if the west makes policy mistakes. Instead, long-term issues like climate change and population growth are the real threats. AKISTAN IS A FASCINATING BUT rather, they could only happen as a result of US disturbing example of risk military intervention in Pakistan. We need to assessment by the western turn our risk analysis of Pakistan on its head media and policymakers, and assess it, above all, in terms of US policy. pespecially when it comes to Meanwhile other, far greater long-term developments in the Muslim threats to its viability as an organised state world. There is an enormous amount of public and society are completely ignored, not and private discussion of the supposed extreme just by the media and policymakers, but by dangers stemming from Pakistan – sometimes most area specialists. These relate above all described, as by the United States nuclear to the potentially catastrophic coming together, proliferation expert Joe Cirincione – as ‘the several decades in the future, of population most dangerous place on earth’. growth and the effects of climate change Fears are concentrated on the twin threats of on water supplies. Islamist revolution and of the state losing The fact that the greatest short-term risk of control of its nuclear deterrent to terrorists. In geopolitical disaster in Pakistan comes from US fact, these eventualities are very unlikely; or intervention means the effects of western MOHAMMAD ZUBAIR/AP/PA PHOTOS THEWORLDTODAY.ORG FEBRUARY 2008 PAGE 8 misinterpretation and exaggeration of risks inroads and taken over large areas. in that country contribute directly to increasing Elsewhere in Pakistan, the extremists those very risks, by making the likelihood are nowhere near achieving this – and when of a US attack greater. they have tried, as in the attempt to turn The western media’s portrayal of the short- the Red Mosque in Islamabad into an armed term dangers in Pakistan also encapsulates a base, they have sooner or later been crushed whole set of wider problems in reporting and by the military. They obviously pose a real analysis: an obsession with attention-grabbing threat of terrorism, as former Prime headlines; an indifference to careful research and Minister Benazir Bhutto learned to her cost – the gathering of facts; and an inability or but while they can attack the state they unwillingness on the part of analysts and cannot overthrow it. journalists to think themselves into the shoes of political and military actors from other cultures – even when these are as close to traditional NUKES ARE SECURE western thinking, as are most Pakistani generals. By the same token, there is no chance that Islamist extremists will be able to seize control of the country’s nuclear forces, let alone that REVOLUTION THAT they will be given them by the military. To NEVER WAS believe this is to misunderstand the entire To take the two perceived threats: successful character of the army, and the purpose for Islamist revolution anywhere in the Sunni which it developed those weapons in the first Muslim world should be seen as unlikely, for the place. Military history demonstrates the simple and logical reason that it has never strength of its corporate identity and internal occurred. The country that came closest to it in discipline; coups have without exception been modern times was Algeria in the early 1990s, carried out by the high command, not by but that was via the ballot box. Even there the mutinies of junior officers. Islamists were crushed by the military, although The strength of the army’s collective identity with a hideous price in blood and atrocity. is demonstrated, among other things, by the Everywhere else, Islamist revolutionaries radically different characters and personal have so far been either defeated, or – in Turkey cultures of the country’s various military – have dropped their revolutionary agenda. The leaders and chiefs of staff. Ayub Khan, who only major Muslim country which has was President in the 1960s, was a secular experienced a successful Islamist revolution is aristocrat; General Zia ul Haq, who seized Iran – and its combination of Shiism and power a decade later was a deeply religious nationalism make it very different from any lower middle class Punjabi; General Pervez Sunni majority country. Musharraf is an educated Mohajir from India. In Pakistan, every election result and All, however, were first and foremost shaped by opinion poll has demonstrated extremely their military service and loyalty. Chatham House limited Islamist support. Fifteen per cent of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were developed is organising a the vote was the Islamist parties’ combined by successive governments, from Prime conference on total at the last elections, ten per cent is the Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s on, historical norm. You cannot carry out a not for ‘Islamic’ purposes, but as the last line of the New Politics revolution with such a small base, at least as defence against a vastly militarily superior of the Global long as the other state and political forces – India, which was working on its own nuclear Economy: A and especially the military – retain any degree weapons. The same logic led NATO to World Without of determination and coherence. prioritise nuclear forces during the Cold War Rules on March Only in the Pashtun areas of the North with the Soviet Union. West Frontier Province and northern AQ Khan, who led the Pakistani 10 and 11. Baluchistan has the Jamiat-e-Ulema party programme, and secretly acquired the Professor emerged – perhaps temporarily – as the largest, necessary international technology and Anatol Lieven and that is very much the result of Pakistani supplies, is not an Islamist but a secular will speak at Pashtun’s ethnic sympathy for the nationalist. As for the idea that the military this annual real or perceived sufferings of their brother would give away its nuclear weapons to Afghan Pashtuns, and for the Taliban terrorists, or allow them to be seized by force, conference on struggle. In the Pashtun areas, and especially this is an absurd fantasy. As a Pakistani political risk. the wild, indirectly governed tribal frontier, general put it to me, ‘Do you think we’d cut Email conferences@ Islamist extremists really have made serious off our own crown jewels?’ chathamhouse.org.uk | INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THEWORLDTODAY.ORG FEBRUARY 2008 PAGE 9 international and Indian hope it will develop as TOUGH RESPONSE a prosperous democracy would be swept away – By the same token, however, the military along, perhaps, with India itself. would fight hard if the US attempted to seize The ‘war’ on terror is also now being spoken those weapons. As for a major and prolonged of by western leaders, including US President US military incursion into the tribal areas to George Bush and British Prime Minister crush Taliban support, Musharraf himself Gordon Brown, and by military staffs, as a warned in January that this would bring a conflict that will last for decades. The British tough Pakistani military response. Defence Secretary, Des Browne, has talked of a If the Pakistani high command failed to British military presence in Afghanistan order this, then in the continuing for thirty years or more. If this is so, view of friends with then two generations down the line, when an close links to the existential water crisis risks kicking in, Pakistan military, there will still be critical to western security, will still would indeed be a contain Islamist extremists – and will still strong likelihood of possess nuclear weapons. military units mutinying to go to fight the Americans DANGEROUS POLITICAL themselves. At that point, of ANIMAL course, military-backed Islamist The western failure to address the threat of revolution and loss of control over nuclear water shortages also deprives aid donors of the weapons would come a giant step closer – but chance to kill two birds with one stone in their the immediate precipitant would be US action. approach to Pakistan. At present, far too much aid is either frittered away on small unconnected projects or going to try to improve education. CLIMATE THREATS These are perfectly laudable aims, but they As for the much greater long-term threat ignore a critical political factor, observed in the from climate change and water shortage – set case of Al Qaeda and many previous out in a sober but frightening World Bank Communist movements: better education can report of 2004 - the objection can obviously be actually be counter-productive if not made that since these threats will only come to accompanied by measures intended to create full fruition some two generations in the future, large numbers of new jobs. There is no more they are not worth bothering about now. At the dangerous a political animal than the very least, it may be argued, the danger is so far unemployed or disappointed graduate. A beyond the normal timeframe of government massive programme of repairing and extending planning as to make international responses Pakistan’s water infrastructure to reduce the impossible. This is seriously mistaken. present appaling level of waste would create In the first place, national and international numerous jobs for unskilled labourers, as well action to limit climate change is intended to be as middle class engineers.
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