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Investment Perspectives Analyser Greek Equities Company news & views Equity Research May 20, 2011 3Q11 Results Review Companies Mentioned Jumbo 3Q11 results were a positive surprise, as reported figures came in above our estimates. Specifically, revenue of €82.5million -19.5% y-o-y was recorded (AFe Jumbo €79.1million), EBITDA was reported at €17.7million -23% y-o-y (AFe €15.6million) and Net Income of €10.3million -31% y-o-y (AFe €9.0million). The recorded double digit declines are attributable to the later Easter season this year – impacting 4th quarter 2011E performance vs. 3rd quarter last year – and therefore direct comparison is not meaningful. Management announced the sales rate for the first 10 months of the year at -0.29% y-o-y vs. 5.5% top line decline in 9M11 figures; underlining that weak revenue is mainly due to the seasonal effect from Easter and will be reversed in the final quarter. The stronger sales figures vs. our estimate points to a less severe decline in like-for-like rates we believe. We have incorporated a high single digit decline (-8/9%) and the actual figure is most probably in the mid to high single digit range (-6/7%) on our calculations. A further positive was the solid gross margin, which grew c. 3 percentage points y-o-y (61.3% vs. 58.4%) despite the absorption of VAT hikes. This phenomenon is in part explained by the late Easter season, which is associated with branded product sales (which in turn have lower gross margins vs. non branded). The exclusion of significant branded products from 3Q11 revenue boosts its gross margin vs. 3Q10 which included a large percentage of such products. The above explain the difference in EBITDA vs. our estimates, with the margin declining c. Analysts 100bps y-o-y (21.4% vs. 22.4%). Domestic operations account for c. 72% of EBITDA, with Cyprus & Bulgaria accounting for 23% & 5% respectively. Manousos Stathoudakis +30 210 367 7543 Free Cash Flow generation stood at €50million in 9M11 vs. €72million in 9M10; with the Nikos Lianeris, CFA group maintaining a net cash position of €6million +30 210 367 7534 Management reiterated their sales rate target for the year (-1%/0%) and their network Antonis Diapoulis rollout for FY12 (3 stores in Greece & 3 in Bulgaria). +30 210 367 7532 Eleanor Green, CFA Following the release of 3Q11 figures we see upside risk to our gross margin and EBITDA +30 210 367 7546 estimates for 4Q11E – our estimates are in line with management revenue targets. We remain neutral on the shares however due to the Group’s significant dependence on the Angelos Chorafas domestic consumer market which continues to head south. +30 210 367 7535 Nikos Katsenos Eleanor Green, CFA +30 210 3677 546 +30 210 367 7547 [email protected] Alpha Finance does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Consequently, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report Alpha Finance Equity Research Analyser Jumbo 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 9M10 4Q10E FY10E 1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11E 9M11E 3Q11A 9M11A 4Q11 FY11E Sales 116.5 175.5 102.5 394.5 92.8 487.3 116.5 173.7 79.1 369.2 82.5 372.7 113.0 482.3 Change 8.4% 4.2% 27.2% 10.6% -16.5% 4.2% 0.0% -1.0% -22.9% -6.4% -19.5% -5.5% 21.8% -1.0% Gross Profit 59.6 97.8 59.8 217.3 59.2 276.5 57.8 95.5 46.7 200.0 50.6 203.9 65.8 265.8 Margin 51.2% 55.7% 58.4% 55.1% 63.8% 56.7% 49.7% 54.9% 59.1% 54.2% 61.3% 54.7% 58.3% 55.1% Other income 0.5 0.8 0.7 2.0 0.7 2.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 2.7 Administration costs -5.4 -6.4 -3.0 -14.8 -3.1 -17.9 -5.1 -8.4 -2.0 -15.5 -1.4 -14.9 -2.6 -18.1 S&G Costs -27.8 -34.8 -34.6 -97.1 -19.4 -116.6 -28.9 -36.6 -29.8 -95.4 -32.1 -97.6 -29.4 -124.8 Total OPEX -33.2 -41.2 -37.5 -112.0 -22.6 -134.5 -33.6 -44.2 -31.8 -109.6 -33.5 -112.6 -33.4 -142.9 EBITDA 26.9 57.4 23.0 107.3 37.4 144.7 24.3 51.3 15.6 91.1 17.7 93.2 33.2 125.6 Change 8.9% 6.4% 12.0% 8.2% -7.5% 3.6% -10.0% -10.7% -32.1% -15.1% -23.1% -13.2% -11.2% -13.2% Margin 23.1% 32.7% 22.4% 27.2% 40.2% 29.7% 20.8% 29.5% 19.7% 24.7% 21.4% 25.0% 29.4% 26.1% Depreciation -3.0 -3.0 -3.4 -9.4 -3.5 -12.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.1 -11.5 -3.9 -11.3 -4.1 -15.6 EBIT 23.9 54.4 19.5 97.9 33.9 131.8 20.8 47.4 11.5 79.6 13.7 81.9 29.1 110.1 Financial expense -1.3 -0.3 -0.2 -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.7 0.2 0.2 1.1 EBT 22.6 54.1 19.4 96.1 33.6 129.7 21.1 47.9 11.6 80.6 13.0 82.0 29.3 111.2 Change 10.9% Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Effective tax rate 22.1% 41.2% 22.9% 33.0% 55.7% 38.9% 21.2% 22.1% 22.5% 21.9% 20.8% 21.6% 52.7% 29.7% Tax Paid -5.0 -22.3 -4.4 -31.7 -18.8 -50.5 -4.5 -10.6 -2.6 -17.6 -2.7 -17.7 -15.4 -33.1 Net profit 17.8 31.8 14.9 64.4 14.9 79.2 16.6 37.3 9.0 62.9 10.3 64.3 15.2 78.1 Change 13.0% -19.9% 18.4% -5.4% -46.5% -17.3% -6.4% 17.4% -39.9% -2.2% -30.7% -0.1% 2.1% -1.4% Source: company & AFe Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix, starting on page 3 Alpha Finance Equity Research DISCLOSURE APPENDIX ALPHA FINANCE INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. (‘Alpha Finance’) Headquarters: 5, Merlin Street, GR – 106 71 Athens, www.alphafinance.gr T +30-210-367 7400, F +30-210-331 1193, [email protected] Ministry of Development, S.A. Registration Number: 19420/06/B/89/01 Regulated by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, License No. 42/13.04.1989 Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) undersigned and responsible for the preparation of this report certify (-ies) that a) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their (his/her) personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers mentioned in this report and b) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Analysts receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, productivity, experience, individual reputation, competitive factors and feedback from clients. Company specific regulatory disclosures Disclosure checklist for companies mentioned & other price data information Reuters Rating PricePrice date/time Disclosure Aegean Airlines AGNr.AT Neutral €1.96 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Alpha Bank ACBr.AT Restricted (G) €3.52 Official close @ 18 May 2011 4 ATE Bank AGBr.AT Non Rated €0.53 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Athens Medical AMCr.AT Underperform €0.41 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none J&P Avax AVAr.AT Under review €1.03 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Jumbo (Babyland) BABr.AT Neutral €5.19 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none S&B Industrial Minerals BARr.AT Under review €4.57 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Bank of Cyprus BOCr.AT Neutral €2.21 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Piraeus Bank BOPr.AT Neutral €1.04 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Corinth Pipeworks CORr.AT Under review €1.06 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none PPC DEHr.AT Outperform €10.30 Official close @ 18 May 2011 3 Eurobank EFG EFGr.AT Neutral €3.34 Official close @ 18 May 2011 3 Euromedica EMDr.AT Underperform €0.46 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none EFG Properties EUPr.AT Outperform €5.92 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Athens Water EYDr.AT Neutral €5.09 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Folli Follie HDFr.AT Neutral €11.50 Official close @ 18 May 2011 2 Forthnet FORr.AT Neutral €0.44 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Frigoglass FRIr.AT Neutral €10.90 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Hellenic Postbank GPSr.AT Non Rated €2.80 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Halcor HAL.AT Not rated €0.78 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Ellaktor HELr.AT Under review €2.60 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Hellenic Petroleum HEPr.AT Neutral €7.13 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Heracles HERr.AT Not rated €4.25 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Coca Cola Hellenic HLBr.AT Neutral €17.39 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Gek HRMr.AT Under review €2.01 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Hygeia HYGr.AT Not rated €0.43 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Iaso IASr.AT Neutral €1.15 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Intralot INLr.AT Neutral €2.22 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Lamda Development LMDr.AT Under Review €3.90 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Motor Oil MORr.AT Outperform €8.56 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Marfin Popular Bank MRBr.AT Neutral €0.70 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Marfin Investment Group MRFr.AT Not rated €0.59 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Metka MTKr.AT Outperform €8.44 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Mytilineos MYTr.AT Outperform €5.19 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none National Bank NBGr.AT Neutral €4.76 Official close @ 18 May 2011 3 PPA (OLP) OLPr.AT Outperform €15.00 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none TPA (OLTH) OLTr.AT Not rated €13.70 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Opap OPAr.AT Neutral €13.38 Official close @ 18 May 2011 3 OTE OTEr.AT Outperform €7.03 Official close @ 18 May 2011 3 Sidenor SID.AT Under review €2.75 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Sprider SPDr.AT Underperform €0.51 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Sarantis SRSr.AT Neutral €3.31 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Terna Energy TENr.AT Outperform €3.05 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Titan TTNr.AT Neutral €17.06 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Thessalonica Water TWSr.AT Under Review €4.70 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Elval VAL.AT Not rated €1.34 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none Viohalco VIO.AT Not rated €3.88 Official close @ 18 May 2011 none B.
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