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Company Update Strategy to Penetrate New Markets Pays Off

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Company Update Strategy to Penetrate New Markets Pays Off Metka Greece/ Basic Resources Company update Investment Research Reason: Estimates Revision 3 June 2013 Buy Strategy to penetrate new markets pays off Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 10.70 Despite the uncertain global economic environment, Metka’s strategy to closing price as of 31/05/2013 penetrate new markets in Africa and Middle East bears fruits, securing Target price: EUR 13.80 new EPC contracts that help replenish backlog. Metka’s attractive from Target Price: EUR 12.70 investment case remains intact due to: a) solid position in a broad region Reuters/Bloomberg MTKr.AT/METTK GA (SE Europe, Middle East, Africa) which is characterized by substantial Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 46,695,000 opportunities due to rising demand and high infrastructure needs, b) Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 488,890.88 increasing importance of natural gas as the fuel of choice for thermal Price high 12 mth (EUR) 12.70 power plants, c) strong balance sheet estimating a net cash position of Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.55 c.EUR 190m by the end of 2013 and c.EUR 260m by the end of 2014. In Abs. perf. 1 mth -7.2% this framework, we raise our target price to EUR 13.80 from EUR 12.70 Abs. perf. 3 mth -12.3% Abs. perf. 12 mth 82.9% previously, reiterating our Buy recommendation. Market capitalisation (EURm) 556 Metka’s backlog currently stands at around EUR 1.0bn, conservatively Current N° of shares (m) 52 excluding from our estimates the second awarded project in Syria with a budget of EUR 678m as opposed to the first project which is in an Free float 43% advanced phase. Metka recently announced that it had received the letter Key financials (EUR) 12/12 12/13e 12/14e of award from the Ministry of Electricity in Iraq for the development of a Sales (m) 548 546 558 1,642 MW CCGT power plant for a total amount of US 1,050 million with a EBITDA (m) 93 91 89 EBITDA margin 16.9% 16.7% 15.9% completion period of 32 months. As the signing of the project is pending, it EBIT (m) 88 87 84 is also not included in our estimates. The materialization of the above two EBIT margin 16.1% 15.9% 15.1% projects imply a significant upside to our medium-term estimates. Net Profit (adj.)(m) 70 67 66 ROCE 20.6% 20.4% 21.3% In our updated estimates, we have proceeded to the following changes: a) Net debt/(cash) (m) (90) (191) (261) we have incorporated two new energy contracts in Algeria with a total Net Debt Equity -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 Net Debt/EBITDA -1.0 -2.1 -2.9 budget of EUR 212m, b) we have assumed that the construction of the first Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) (39.7) (78.4) (26.9) power plant project in Syria (c.80% completed), which restarted in 1Q:13 EV/Sales 0.7 0.6 0.5 after being suspended for several months, will be completed in 2014, c) we EV/EBITDA 4.3 3.8 3.1 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.3 3.8 3.1 have fine-tuned our estimates with respect to the timeframe of the EV/EBIT 4.5 4.0 3.3 implementation of existing contracts in Jordan, Turkey and Iraq. For Syria P/E (adj.) 7.3 8.3 8.4 more specifically, we expect sales of EUR 50m in 2013 (EUR 20m was P/BV 1.4 1.4 1.2 recorded in 1Q:13) and EUR 96m in 2014. OpFCF yield 2.1% 21.8% 17.2% Dividend yield 2.3% 3.3% 6.0% Following our new estimates, we currently forecast for 2013 group sales EPS (adj.) 1.35 1.29 1.27 BVPS 6.79 7.67 8.59 and EBITDA of EUR 546m and EUR 91.4m respectively compared to EUR DPS 0.25 0.35 0.64 523m and EUR 87m previously. Net income is trimmed by 2% to EUR 58.6m due to the inclusion of a one-off EUR 8.5m deferred tax arising from the change of the corporate tax rate to 26% from 20%. The delivery of two CCGT power plants in Turkey during this summer is expected to boost 13 vvdsvdvsdy FCF generation enhancing net cash position by c.EUR 100m. Besides the 12 11 significant cash flow impact, we see the successful execution of these two 10 projects as a key milestone for the company. 9 8 Going forward, management has disclosed that they are bidding for new 7 6 energy projects in various countries setting as priority the maintenance of 5 Απρ 12 Μαϊ 12 Ιουν 12 Ιουλ 12 Αυγ 12 Σεπ 12 Οκτ 12 Νοε 12 Δεκ 12 Ιαν 13 Φεβ 13 Μαρ 13 Απρ 13 Μαϊ 13 the high margin. In addition, Metka’s intention to capitalize on its know-how Source: Factset METKA FTSE Athex 25 (Rebased) on CCGT power plants by expanding to the O&M field, represents an Shareholders: Mytilineos 57%; opportunity for the company to add a new stable source of revenue. Analyst(s): Vassilis Roumantzis +30 210 8173 394 [email protected] For company description please see summary table footnote Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Metka New contracts retain backlog at satisfactory levels In our updated estimates, we have proceeded to the following changes: a) we have incorporated two new energy contracts in Algeria with a total budget of EUR 212m, b) we have assumed that the construction of the power plant project in Syria (c.80% completed), which restarted in 1Q:13 after being suspended for several months, will be completed in 2014, c) we have fine-tuned our estimates with respect to the timeframe of the implementation of existing contracts in Jordan, Turkey and Iraq. Metka recently announced that it had received the letter of award from the Ministry of Electricity in Iraq for the development of a 1,642 MW CCGT power plant in western province of al-Anbar for a total amount of US 1,050 million with a completion period of 32 months. The contract is not signed yesterday as Metka is looking for the optimal way to minimize the risk of the specific project given the difficult operational environment in Iraq. In this framework, we have not included this project in our estimates for signed contracts. In addition, we continue to adopt a conservative stance with respect to the second awarded 724 MW plant in Syria, with a budget of EUR 678m, excluding it also from our estimates. Below we provide details of Metka’s key project included in backlog (excluding the second project in Iraq and the second project in Syria) which currently stands at approximately EUR 1.0bn: a) PEEGT (Syria): 700 MW CCGT power plant in Syria assigned by the Syrian government to Metka/Ansaldo partnership. Following the suspension of the project during last summer, Metka is gradually resuming operations already recording in 1Q:13 revenues of EUR 20m. We currently assume that contribution to 2013 revenues will be about EUR 50m and that the remaining amount of EUR 96m will show in 2014 numbers. Obviously, if conditions in the country deteriorate, the project could be delayed beyond 2014. b) RWE-Turcas (Turkey): 775 MW CCGT power plant in Turkey with RWE & Turcas Guney Elektrik Uretim, a JV of German utility RWE and locally-based energy company Turcas Petrol. We note that in the above JV, RWE holds 70% share and Turcas 30%. The total investment sum amounts to approximately EUR 500m. This project is well on track and is expected to be delivered during this summer. c) OMV (Turkey): 870 MW CCGT plant in Samsun in Turkey. Metka and Power Projects (Metka’s 100% local subsidiary) have been awarded a contract by BORASCO (100% subsidiary of OMV Power International GmbH) for the construction and supply of equipment for a total budget of the project about EUR 475m. This project is also expected to be completed during this summer. d) Republic of Iraq: 1,250 MW power plant in Shat-Al-Basra for a budget of USD 349m. The key equipment will be supplied by GE. As the project has been delayed, we currently assume that it will be completed one year later, in 2015. e) Algeria: Following a small-scale project awarded in 2012, Metka has won two new projects in Algeria through its subsidiary in Turkey with a total contract value of EUR 212m. The first project (EUR 120m) would be carried out on a fast-track schedule before this summer, while the second project (awarded in May with a contract value of EUR 93m) is expected to be completed in about 3 years from now. f) Jordan: Metka has been awarded two contracts in Jordan from Samra Electric Power: The first project concerns a USD 155m contract to increase the capacity of plant in Jordan by 143 MW and will be carried out within 28 months, while the second energy project with a contract value of USD 104m will be carried out on a fast-track basis, with commercial operation expected at the end of June 2013. Page 2 Metka Below we show the breakdown of Metka’s estimated revenues in the period 2013-2016: Table 1: Our turnover forecasts for 2013-2016 EUR m 2013 2014 2015 2016 Large-scale energy projects Signed contracts 451 276 186 22 SEPCO (Jordan ) Project 1 45 50 24 SEPCO (Jordan ) Project 2 40 PEEGT (Syria) Project 1 50 96 OMV (Turkey) 97 RWE-Turcas (Turkey) 57 Iraq Project 1 35 90 131 Algeria Project 1 7 Algeria Project 2 120 0 Algeria Project 3 0 40 30 22 New contracts 0 200 300 500 Total Revenues from large-scale energy projects 451 476 486 522 Percentage of total revenues 82.6% 85.3% 85.1% 86.7% Other small projects 60 47 50 45 Defence projects 15 15 15 15 Subsidiaries 20 20 20 20 Total Metka Revenues 546.2 557.7 570.6 602.0 Source: IBG estimates 2013 EPS slightly lowered on one-off deferred tax The gradual restart of operations in Syria and the new fast-track project in Algeria have counterbalanced delays in Iraq, raising our 2013 sales modestly by 4.3% to EUR 546m.
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