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Soft Quarter Shadowed by New Projects

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Soft Quarter Shadowed by New Projects GREECE | EQUITY RESEARCH | INDUSTRIALS May 17, 2013 Q1 2013 REVIEW METKA Recommendation BUY Target Price €13.40 Soft quarter shadowed by new projects Prior Target Price €12.70 Closing Price (17/05) €12.50 Q1 2013 review - The EPC contractor reported a 21.5% decline in revenues in the Market Cap (mn) €649.4 first quarter to EUR134mn, reflecting tough comparables, weak contract execution on Greece and the delay in Syria, which had made a significant contribution during Expected Return 1.0% the same period last year. Apart from these expected trends, Turkey-related Expected Dividend (2014e) 6.2% Expected Total Return 7.2% payments came in lower than our expectations and as a result group sales stood 26% lower than our estimates. This does not trigger a downgrade of our 2013e METKA Share Price estimates however; recall that the two Turkish projects are up for completion in 13.00 H1 2013 and we expect that the revenue miss will be reversed in the coming quarter. Adjusting for Turkey, the results were broadly in line with our expectations. On a positive note, the mgt’s special measures in Syria started 11.00 delivering positive results and contract execution has resumed. EBITDA stood at EUR22.9mn, down 17.3% yoy and 24.3% lower than our forecasts reflecting the aforementioned revenue miss but on sustainably strong operating margins, which 9.00 were in line with our forecasts. Although there was no improvement in working capital, METKA reported positive operating cash flows of EUR14.3mn in the quarter compared to an outflow of EUR84.6mn last year. As a result, adjusted net 7.00 cash improved EUR15.6mn qoq standing at EUR105.6mn. Update on Iraqi project - The company has informed that it has received 5.00 notification from the Ministry of Electricity in Iraq that they have been awarded a May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 EUR1.0bn turnkey CCGT project in the area. The project relates to the construction Stock Data of a reported 1,642MW CCGT plant in al-Anbar, to be carried out during a period Reuters RIC MTKr.AT of 32 months. Following recent press reports, the company has also given notice Bloomberg Code METTK GA that it is negotiating with the Chinese state-controlled construction company SEPCO regarding a potential co-operation. Although given its track record, we have 52 Week High (adj.) €12.50 no reason to doubt METKA’s ability to complete the project in a successful and 52 Week Low (adj.) €5.55 timely fashion, given the size of the contract, the largest single project ever won by Abs. performance (1m) 5.9% the company, and the high execution risk due to geopolitical reasons, it does not Abs. performance (YTD) 22.4% surprise that METKA would seek a partnership as a means to reduce its risk. Whatever the company opts to do, we believe there is significant value stemming Number of shares 52.0mn from the award of the project but since many variables have yet to be determined Avg Trading Volume (qrt) 53.4k we do not yet include the project in our numbers. Est. 3yr EPS CAGR -1.8% Free Float 43% Estimates Revision & Valuation – We mildly upgrade our earnings forecasts to account for the recently awarded EUR92.8mn project in Algeria. We increase our Katerina Zaharopoulou target price to EUR13.40 per share from EUR12.70 previously, reflecting the Equity Analyst aforementioned mild earnings upgrade and a higher multiples valuation following Tel: +30 210 37 20 252 a re-rating of its global peers, while we retain our Buy recommendation on METKA, E-mail: [email protected] which is included in our Top Picks Portfolio. On our target price, the group trades at a 9.4x 2014e PE and a 3.9x EV/EBITDA multiple and offers a c. 11.1% cash flow John Kalantzis yield. Head of Research Tel: +30 210 37 20 118 Estimates EUR mn 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e E-mail: [email protected] Revenues 1,003.7 547.5 564.5 624.7 590.1 Head of Research EBITDA 161.4 92.7 95.9 105.5 99.5 Tel: +30 210 37 20 118 Net Profit 115.0 70.1 62.6 69.0 66.3 EPS 2.21 1.35 1.21 1.33 1.28 Sales DPS 0.75 0.25 0.77 0.62 0.63 Tel: +30 210 37 20 119 Valuation Trading 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e Tel: +30 210 37 20 140 P/E 5.6 9.3 10.4 9.4 9.8 EV/EBITDA 3.1 6.0 4.7 3.9 3.9 See Appendix for Analyst Certification and EBIT/Interest expense 11.5 7.0 7.9 8.7 9.7 important disclosures Yield 6.0% 2.0% 6.2% 5.0% 5.0% ROE 33.9% 18.9% 15.9% 16.1% 14.3% METKA May 17, 2013 Q1 2013 Review The EPC contractor reported a 21.5% decline in revenues in the first quarter to EUR134mn, reflecting tough comparables, weak contract execution on Greece and the delay in Syria, which had made a significant contribution during the same period last year. Apart from these expected trends, Turkey-related payments came in lower than our expectations and as a result group sales stood 26% lower than our estimates. This does not trigger a downgrade of our 2013e estimates however; recall that the two Turkish projects are up for completion in H1 2013 and we expect that the revenue miss will be reversed in the coming quarter. Adjusting for Turkey, the results were broadly in line with our expectations. On a positive note, the mgt’s special measures in Syria started delivering positive results and contract execution has resumed. Syria-related revenues reached EUR20.5mn in Q1 vs. EUR93.1mn last year (we factored no Syria-related revenues in Q1). Recall that following a 6- month freeze in operations for safety reasons, the mgt took special measures and resumed activities at the Deir Ali plant during Q1. It has established an office in Lebanon (2 ½ hour drive from Damascus) and mgt now has remote control in many operations and is proceeding “in a very specific way and with a lot of extra measures”. The project is a couple of months away from the 1st fire and only a few months away of delivering power to the grid. EBITDA stood at EUR22.9mn, down 17.3% yoy and 24.3% lower than our forecasts reflecting the aforementioned revenue miss but on sustainably strong operating margins, which were in line with our forecasts. Although there was no improvement in working capital compared to the previous quarter due to the acceleration of payments relating to the two Turkish projects, METKA reported positive operating cash flows of EUR14.3mn in the quarter compared to an outflow of EUR84.6mn last year. As a result, adjusted net cash improved EUR15.6mn qoq standing at EUR105.6mn. In terms of net cash position, recall that METKA participates in the group’s cash pooling and through its subsidiary Mytilineos Financial Partners, has proceeded with an investment in corporate bonds totaling EUR34.2mn (vs. EUR41.3mn in Q4 2012).Although classified under IFRS as a receivable from connected parties, we treat this as a cash equivalent. We expect that both working capital and the group’s net cash position will improve substantially by year-end upon successful delivery of the two Turkish projects in H1 and a forecasted partial collection of receivables. We also expect that METKA will continue to participate in the group’s cash pooling, albeit at lower levels. METKA | Quarterly Highlights EUR mn Q1 2013 Q1 2012 yoy% Eurobank est. Actual vs. Eurobank Sales 134.0 170.7 -21. 5% 180.5 - 25.8% EBITDA 22.9 27.7 -17.3% 30.3 - 24.3% EBITDA margin 17.1% 16.2% 88 bps 16.8% 32 bps EBT 19. 4 24.4 -20.6% 26.9 - 28.0% Net profits 16.1 23.5 -31.6% 19.9 -18.9% OCF 14.3 -84.6 116.9% FCF 6.8 -11.5 159.4% Net Debt / (Cash) - adjusted * -105.6 -69.2 52.4% Net Debt / (Cash) - reported -74.4 -69.2 7.4% Sourc e: Eurobank Equities Research 2 METKA May 17, 2013 METKA wins USD1.0bn project in Iraq In an official filing, the company informed that a consortium of METKA S.A. and its subsidiary METKA Overseas have received notification from the Ministry of Electricity in Iraq that they have been awarded a EUR1.0bn turnkey CCGT project in the area. The project relates to the construction of a reported 1,642MW CCGT plant in al-Anbar and will be carried out during a period of 32 months. According to press reports, apart from METKA, Italian Saipem, South Korean Hyundai Engineering, Turkish Gama and a consortium consisting of Italian Techint Engineering and Turkish Calik were in the shortlist to win the project. This is quite a positive development for METKA, confirming the company’s solid track record and competitiveness in international large scale tenders. It also alleviates the looming backlog replenishment risk, even under the worst case scenario (suspension of the Deir-Ali project in Syria). The project represents almost 50% of current backlog and assuming METKA undertakes the construction of the project, it would bring the company’s year-end backlog to EUR1.9bn on our estimates, close to the EUR2.0-2.2bn peak levels experienced in 2009 - 2010. Following recent press reports, the company has also given notice that it is negotiating with the Chinese state-controlled construction company SEPCO (SEPCOIII Electric Power Construction Corporation) regarding a potential co-operation for the recently awarded project.
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