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AXIA Research AXIA Research Bloomberg <AXVA> Greece-Daily Note April 13, 2018 Headlines Athens General Index Macroeconomic News According to press, EuroWorking Group (EWG) officials told the Greek government that the draft growth strategy it presented for the day after Greece’s exit from the adjustment program, needs to be more precise in specific areas and to clearly account for the associated costs on the budget. According to Kathimerini, in parallel to the EWG meeting yesterday, there was also a Washington Group meeting yesterday. Debt relief and reforms will be the focus in today’s meeting between the Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz in Berlin. ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January 2018 came to 20.6% compared to the upward revised 23.2% in January 2017 and 20.8% in December 2017. According to ELSTAT, total building activity in Jan’18 on the basis of issued permits increased close daily % Ytd % by 18.0% y-o-y, by 45.8% in volume terms while increased by 45.2% in surface terms. For the Athens General 806.08 0.85% 0.46% Market Turnover (EURm) 60.847 21.35% rolling 12-month period, building permits are up 9.2% (+20.7% surface, +23.5% volume). Market Cap (EURbn) 55.507 Market Cap / GDP* 29.67% Additional Headlines *2016 th ECB’s Governing Council on April 11 lowered the ELA ceiling for Greek banks by EUR 1.9bn to FTSE ASE movers (last trading day) EUR 14.7bn TOP Aegean Airlines announced that traffic volumes in 1Q18 increased by 12%. Volumes were Bank of Greece A.E. 4.86% driven by a 16.0% y-o-y increase in international passengers (1.1m), while domestic passengers Grivalia Properties REIC 3.95% ELLAKTOR SA 3.92% increased by 9.0% y-o-y (0.99m). The company importantly managed to improve its load factor Eurobank Ergasias S.A. 3.01% by 440bps to stand at 81.2% vs. 76.8% in 1Q17. The first quarter is the historically seasonally Piraeus Bank S.A. 2.97% weaker one for Aegean, with 1Q17 net losses amounting to EUR 35.8m. Given the recent data BOTTOM we would expect Aegean to manage to contain bottom line losses in 1Q18 and pave the way Aegean Airlines S.A. -0.98% for a new record year. Thessaloniki Water Supply -0.82% Marfin& Sewerage Investment Co. S.A. Group -0.80% According to press INTRAKAT is interested in the revamp of the lignite unit in Amuntaio. The NationalHoldings BankS.A. of Greece -0.73% proposal will reportedly include apart for the environmental upgrade of the unit, investments AlphaS.A. Bank A.E. -0.61% in RES in the area and a joint operation of the unit will PPC including long term bilateral contracts with industries. Recall that Mytilineos, Gek Terna and Copelouzos Group have submitted similar proposals. Amuntaio is one pf PPC’s oldest lignite units and has a finite FTSE ASE Ratios* operating lifetime due to environmental restrictions. Given the rally in emission (CO2) prices FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 over the previous months (currently at EUR 13-14/tn) we are cautious for any investment P/E 14.9 11.4 12.1 decision in the unit. EV/EBITDA 8.5 7.5 7.0 P/BV 1.3 1.3 1.2 Hellenic Petroleum announced that the Greek State following the lapse of the office term of EV/Sales 2.8 2.6 2.1 the current BoD will propose as Chairman of the BoD and CEO Mr Efstathios Tsotsoros, Dividend yield 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% replacing Mr Grigoris Stergioulis as CEO. *S&P Capital IQ According to Naftemporiki, Attica Department Stores (Folli Follie owns 45.9%) posted an 11.8% y-o-y top line growth in Q1:18. Growth was driven by higher tourism (assisted also by the timing of the Easter this year), as tax-free sales grew by 33% y-o-y during the period. Please continue overleaf…. Weekly calendar Friday, April 13: CPI/HICP (March), Import Price Index in Industry (Feb) MiFID II Research - Have you agreed to your access? Contact us now Axia Ventures Group - 4 Vas. Sofias Ave., 10674 Athens Greece, Tel: +30 210 7414400, Fax: +30 210 7414449, Web: www.axiavg.com Please refer to the last page for disclosures and analyst certification AXIA Research Greek Economy – EU asks for more precision on the growth plan / IMF states its views on the debt relief mechanism Fact: According to press, EuroWorking Group (EWG) officials told the Greek government that the draft growth strategy it presented for the day after Greece’s exit from the adjustment program, needs to be more precise in specific areas and to clearly account for the associated costs on the budget. According to Kathimerini, in parallel to the EWG meeting yesterday, there was also a Washington Group meeting yesterday. Debt relief and reforms will be the focus in today’s meeting between the Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz in Berlin. Assessment: Regarding the growth strategy presented, Naftemporiki reports that all parties involved agree with the general aims of the plan but the institutions want to make sure that the Greek government does not enter into a spending mode after the country’s exit from the program and that does not backtrack on the reforms. The growth plan is expected to be finalized in the coming days and the aim is to be approved at the April 27 Eurogroup. According to Kathimerini, the Washington Group meeting yesterday, convened to discuss Greek debt relief, was attended by ESM’s Klaus Regling, officials from the EU, the ECB, Germany, France, Italy and Spain and also by the IMF’s EU Director Poul Thomsen. According to the report, Poul Thomsen noted the conditions under which the IMF could participate in the program. Specifically, according to the report, the IMF want the “French mechanism” (the debt relief mechanism suggested by the French government) to be independent of any conditionalities and to apply automatically. Any conditionalities can be attached to other debt relief measures, i.e. the return of the ANFAs and SMP to Greece (a total of EUR4-5bn in the coming years). This view is shared by France, Italy and Spain but on the other hand, reportedly, Germany, Austria and The Netherlands feel that there have to be conditionalities since they are worried that the Greek government backtracks on reforms. Apart from the debt relief the IMF wants an agreement for the level of the primary surplus targets after 2023 (the IMF wants the target to be reduced to 1.5% of GDP after 2022, while the EU suggests 2.1%). Finally, there is still disagreement between the IMF and the EU over the interest rates of the debt (issue of new debt) that there will be applied in the projections over the medium term (IMF forecasts high interest rates). Further discussions will take place at the IMF’s Spring meeting next week, while the intention is to have further progress in the April 27 Eurogroup. AXIA Research Page 2 AXIA Research Corporate & Macro Calendar Macros Release Event For the month of date Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Mar'18 4/13/2018 Import Price Index in Industry Feb'18 4/13/2018 Motor Vehicle Circulation Licences Mar'18 4/13/2018 National Consumer Price Index Mar'18 4/13/2018 Turnover Index in Industry Feb'18 4/19/2018 Fiscal Data (1st notification) 2014-2017 4/23/2018 Material Costs Index for New Residential Buildings Mar'18 4/25/2018 Quarterly Non-Financial Accounts of General Government 4Q:17 4/25/2018 Work Categories Price Indices and Construction Costs Indices for New Residential Buildings 1Q:18 4/25/2018 Quarterly Non-Financial Accounts of Institutional Sectors 4Q:17 4/27/2018 Producer Price Index in Industry Mar'18 4/30/2018 Statistics on International Trade in Goods broken down by invoicing currency FY:17 4/30/2018 Turnover Index in Retail Trade Feb'18 4/30/2018 Corporates THRACE PLASTICS HOLDING AND COMMERCIAL S.A. (PLAT) Q4:17 results 4/19/2018 NBG PANGAEA R.E.I.C. (PANGAEA) GM 4/23/2018 BRIQ PROPERTIES REIC (BRIQ) Dividend Cut 4/24/2018 AUTOHELLAS S.A. (OTOEL) GM 4/25/2018 BRIQ PROPERTIES REIC (BRIQ) Dividend Holders 4/25/2018 GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS S.A. (OPAP) GM 4/25/2018 MERMEREN KOMBINAT A.D. PRILEP (MERKO) GM 4/25/2018 Folli Follie Q4:17 results 4/26/2018 BRIQ PROPERTIES REIC (BRIQ) Dividend Payment Date 4/30/2018 AXIA Research Page 3 Disclosures General information This research report was prepared by AXIA Ventures Group Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of Cyprus (referred to herein, together with its subsidiary companies and affiliates, collectively, as “AXIA”) which is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (authorisation number 086/07). AXIA is authorized to provide investment services in the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Greece and in Portugal pursuant to its permissions under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and may also provide similar services in other countries, inside or outside of the European Union, subject to the applicable provisions. AXIA Ventures Group Limited is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.), and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In the U.S., this research report is intended solely for persons who meet the definition of “major U.S.
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