COMPANY ANALYSIS 1 March 2018 Summary THQ Nordic (THQNO.ST) List: Power-up! Market Cap: 11,190 MSEK The company had an immense release schedule with loads of Industry: Gaming new content during the quarter. The reported numbers beat CEO: Lars Wingefors Chairman: Kicki Wallje-Lund our estimates. Even though that THQ Nordic produced a record quarter, the thing stole the spotlight was the announcement of the acquisition of Koch Media; we get into OMXS 30 THQ Nordic detail about the acquired company in this research update. 160 The acquisition is a prime example of THQ Nordic’s 140 acquisition strategy. We believe that the market is yet to fully 120 100 grasp the underlying value and cash flow generating 80 capabilities of THQ Nordic’s growing IP portfolio, which was 60 enhanced significantly by the acquirement. 40 20 We raised our Base-case valuation to 140 SEK per share 0 28-Feb 29-May 27-Aug 25-Nov 23-Feb based on a Back-Of-The-Envelope assessment on the same day as the acquisition. Following a more in-depth analysis, we increase our fair value estimate further to 168 SEK per share. We argue that the new addition to the Group was acquired at a low price and that the long-term possibilities following the purchase are vast. Redeye Rating (0 – 10 points) Management Ownership Profit outlook Profitability Financial strength 8.0 points 9.0 points 7.0 points 6.0 points 8.0 points Key Financials 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Share information Revenue, MSEK 302 508 3,666 3,909 4,300 Share price (SEK) 141.0 Growth 42% 68% 622% 7% 10% Number of shares (m) 79.4 EBITDA 132 273 929 1,009 1,212 Market Cap (MSEK) 11,190 EBITDA margin 44% 54% 25% 26% 28% Net cash (MSEK) 255 EBIT 95 188 616 696 849 Free float (%) 50 % EBIT margin 31% 37% 17% 18% 20% Daily turnover (’000) 60 Pre-tax earnings 93 182 616 696 849 Net earnings 72 139 480 543 662 Net margin 24% 27% 13% 14% 15% Analysts: Kristoffer Lindstrom 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E [email protected] Dividend/Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E EPS adj. 1.00 1.75 6.05 6.85 8.34 P/E adj. 33.0 77.0 23.3 20.6 16.9 Tomas Otterbeck EV/S 7.4 19.9 3.0 2.7 2.3 [email protected] EV/EBITDA 16.9 37.0 11.8 10.5 8.1 Important information: All information regarding limitation of liability and potential conflicts of interest can be found at the end of the report. Redeye, Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr, Box 7141, 103 87 Stockholm. Tel +46 8-545 013 30. E-post: [email protected] THQ Nordic Redeye Rating: Background and definitions The aim of a Redeye Rating is to help investors identify high-quality companies with attractive valuation. Company Qualities The aim of Company Qualities is to provide a well-structured and clear profile of a company’s qualities (or operating risk) – its chances of surviving and its potential for achieving long-term stable profit growth. We categorize a company’s qualities on a ten-point scale based on five valuation keys; 1 – Management, 2 – Ownership, 3 – Profit Outlook, 4 – Profitability and 5 – Financial Strength. Each valuation key is assessed based a number of quantitative and qualitative key factors that are weighted differently according to how important they are deemed to be. Each key factor is allocated a number of points based on its rating. The assessment of each valuation key is based on the total number of points for these individual factors. The rating scale ranges from 0 to +10 points. The overall rating for each valuation key is indicated by the size of the bar shown in the chart. The relative size of the bars therefore reflects the rating distribution between the different valuation keys. Management Our Management rating represents an assessment of the ability of the board of directors and management to manage the company in the best interests of the shareholders. A good board and management can make a mediocre business concept profitable, while a poor board and management can even lead a strong company into crisis. The factors used to assess a company’s management are: 1 – Execution, 2 – Capital allocation, 3 – Communication, 4 – Experience, 5 – Leadership and 6 – Integrity. Ownership Our Ownership rating represents an assessment of the ownership exercised for longer-term value creation. Owner commitment and expertise are key to a company’s stability and the board’s ability to take action. Companies with a dispersed ownership structure without a clear controlling shareholder have historically performed worse than the market index over time. The factors used to assess Ownership are: 1 – Ownership structure, 2 – Owner commitment, 3 – Institutional ownership, 4 – Abuse of power, 5 – Reputation, and 6 – Financial sustainability. Profit Outlook Our Profit Outlook rating represents an assessment of a company’s potential to achieve long-term stable profit growth. Over the long-term, the share price roughly mirrors the company’s earnings trend. A company that does not grow may be a good short-term investment, but is usually unwise in the long term. The factors used to assess Profit Outlook are: 1 – Business model, 2 – Sale potential, 3 – Market growth, 4 – Market position, and 5 – Competitiveness. Profitability Our Profitability rating represents an assessment of how effective a company has historically utilised its capital to generate profit. Companies cannot survive if they are not profitable. The assessment of how profitable a company has been is based on a number of key ratios and criteria over a period of up to the past five years: 1 – Return on total assets (ROA), 2 – Return on equity (ROE), 3 – Net profit margin, 4 – Free cash flow, and 5 – Operating profit margin or EBIT. Financial Strength Our Financial Strength rating represents an assessment of a company’s ability to pay in the short and long term. The core of a company’s financial strength is its balance sheet and cash flow. Even the greatest potential is of no benefit unless the balance sheet can cope with funding growth. The assessment of a company’s financial strength is based on a number of key ratios and criteria: 1 – Times-interest-coverage ratio, 2 – Debt-to-equity ratio, 3 – Quick ratio, 4 – Current ratio, 5 – Sales turnover, 6 – Capital needs, 7 – Cyclicality, and 8 – Forthcoming binary events. Company analysis 2 THQ Nordic Index A major deal ................................................................................................ 4 Q4 a record quarter! .................................................................................. 4 We raise our valuation further ..................................................................... 5 The acquisition of Koch Media...................................................................... 6 Games division .......................................................................................... 8 Key franchises: ....................................................................................... 8 Confirmed releases 2018 .......................................................................... 11 Projections for the Games division........................................................... 12 Partner Publishing – stable busniess ........................................................... 13 Film –cash generation .............................................................................. 14 Cost estimates, a look on the pro forma ..................................................... 15 Next quarter ........................................................................................... 16 Full year projections for Group .................................................................. 17 Investment case ......................................................................................... 18 A large part of the asset value is still untapped ............................................ 18 Focus on long-term value and buying cheap ................................................ 19 Counterarguments (Bear-points) ............................................................. 19 Valuation ................................................................................................... 20 Peer valuation ......................................................................................... 21 Scenario analysis ..................................................................................... 22 Bear-case ............................................................................................ 22 Bull-case .............................................................................................. 23 Company analysis 3 THQ Nordic A major deal The company had an immense release scheme with loads of new content during quarter, and the reported numbers beat our estimate both on the sales and profit level. Even though that THQ Nordic produced a record quarter, the thing stole the spotlight was the announcement of the acquisition of Koch Media. In this research update we will: Briefly discuss about the quarterly outcome Describe Koch Media business Get into detail about our updated projections Discuss about changes to our valuation Q4 a record quarter! Estimates vs Outcome THQ Nordic 2016- 2017- 2017E- Diff % MSEK Q4 Q4 Q4 Net sales 128 255 230 11% of which New releases 47 190 175 of which Catalog 82 65 55 EBITDA 59 156 138 13% EBIT 48 102 94 8% Revenue growth 30% 99% 79% EBITDA margin 46% 61% 60% EBIT margin 38% 40% 41% Source: Redeye Research As discussed earlier the release schedule during the period was a massive one with no less than 11 new products that came to market, 9 of which was