ODUMUNC 2021 Crisis Brief

Designated Survivor

ODU Model Society

constitutional and political disputes over the Introduction: The Succession legitimacy of the new president, and fears of 2 Problem further attack.

How would a major government deal with a catastrophe that suddenly killed most of its highest leaders? In the , this problem is addressed through the formal succession process. When writing the current US constitution in 1787, an initial line of succession was established, going from President to Vice- President. Congress was given the power to legislate on further steps in the process, should the office of Vice-President be vacant. The current law was laid out in the Presidential Succession Act of 1947.1 This placed the Speaker of the House and Senate president pro tempore in the line of succession, followed by Cabinet secretaries. One of the lessons of 11 September 2001 was the scale of a catastrophe could surpass the imaginations of 1787 and 1947.

Set in the year 2022, this simulation investigates what might happen in such circumstances today. It builds on ideas pioneered in the Netflix series ‘Designated Survivor’, written by David Guggenheim and directed by Paul McGuigan. Constitutional Issues That version, which premiered in 2016, starts after a fictional explosion destroyed the U.S. There are major concerns regarding the Capitol Building during the President’s annual constitutionality of having members of Congress speech. A relatively lower- in the line of succession.3 These uncertainties level official, the Secretary of Housing and regarding the succession process could cause Urban Development, is the Designated Survivor, chaos if the law has to be invoked. the highest-ranking official in line to be sworn as President. Guggenheim and McGuigan The US Constitution's Succession Clause— imagined this as the first step revealing Article II, Section 1, Clause 6—specifies that controversies over the line of succession,

1 ‘United States presidential line of succession’, https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/designated_survi Wikipedia, n.d., vor/s01 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_preside 3 Norman J. Ornstein, ‘It's : Who's in ntial_line_of_succession Charge Here?’ American Enterprise Institute, 9 2 ‘Designated Survivor: Season 1 (2016 - 2017)’ February 2004, https://www.aei.org/articles/its- Rotten Tomatoes, n.d., armageddon/

Designated Survivor

only an ‘Officer’ may be designated as a House and the President pro tempore of the Presidential successor:4 Senate—who are not ‘Officers’ (the word used in the US Constitution), and eligible to act as In Case of the Removal of the President from President under the Succession Clause.6 Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties The 1947 Act also is controversial because it of the said Office, the Same shall devolve on provides that an officer who is acting as the Vice President, and the Congress may by president due to the disability or failure to law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, qualify of an officer higher in the order of Resignation or Inability, both of the President succession does so only until the other officer's and Vice President, declaring what Officer disability or disqualification is removed. If this shall then act as President, and such Officer happens, the previously entitled officer can shall act accordingly, until the Disability be ‘bump’ the person then acting as president. removed, or a President shall be elected.5 Critics of the Act have argued that this provision violates ‘the Succession Clause, which says that Constitutional scholars from to an officer named by Congress shall 'act as the present day say that the term ‘Officer" refers President ... until the Disability be removed, or a to an ‘Officer of the United States’, a term that President shall be elected'.7 excludes members of Congress.

Be careful…

Succession is a noun meaning who or what comes next, and in what order. In a monarchy, it refers to what prince or princesses will follow the king or queen. In England, Prince Charles in next after Elizabeth II, and his eldest son, Prince

William, will follow him.

Secession is a noun meaning the act of seceding, or when a few states or provinces break away from the rest of the nation.

Some legal experts believe the 1947 Act is Lyndon B. Johnson on board Air Force One is sworn in as unconstitutional because it elevated two officials President following the assassination of John F. , in the line of succession-- the Speaker of the 22 November 1963

4 ‘Article Two of the United States Constitution’, 6 Jack Goldsmith and Ben Miller-Gootnick, ‘A Wikipedia, n.d., Presidential Succession Nightmare’, Lawfare, 25 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_U March 2020, nited_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_ https://www.lawfareblog.com/presidential- disability succession-nightmare ; Joel Goldstein, ‘Presidential 5 ‘Article II, Section, Clause 6,’ Constitution Succession Act of 1947’, C-Span, 6 October 2020, Annotated, n.d., https://www.c-span.org/classroom/document/?17228 https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article- 7 Brad Sherman, ‘Serious Flaws Exist in Our 2/section-1/clause-6/ Presidential Succession Laws’, , 31 January 2011, https://sherman.house.gov/media- center/opinion-editorials/serious-flaws-exist-in-our- presidential-succession-laws

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President: For example, this bumping provision could result in there being multiple acting presidents Ralph Nader (born 1934) is an American for a short period during a national crisis and it political activist, author, lecturer, lawyer, and could weaken the public legitimacy of former candidate for President of the United successors. According to Congressman Brad States, noted for his involvement in consumer Sherman, the bumping provision ‘…creates a protection, environmentalism and government game of musical chairs with the presidency and reform causes. would cause great instability. In a time of national crisis, the nation needs to know who its The son of Lebanese immigrants, Nader was president is.’8 educated at Princeton and Harvard. He first came to prominence in 1965 with the publication of the bestselling book Unsafe at Any Speed, an influential critique of the safety record of American automobile manufacturers. In the Characters 1970s, Nader established a number of advocacy and watchdog groups including the Public 1. President: Ralph Nader Interest Research Group, the Center for Auto Safety, and Public Citizen. 2. Vice President: Bernard Sanders

3. : Nikki Haley Nader's activism has been directly credited with 4. Chief of Staff: the passage of several landmark pieces of 5. Secretary of Defense: Paul Nakasone American consumer protection legislation including the Clean Water Act, the Freedom of 6. Secretary of Homeland Security: Jeh Information Act, the Consumer Product Safety Johnson Act, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the 7. Secretary of Treasury: Lael Brainard Whistleblower Protection Act, and the National 8. Attorney General: Sally Yates Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act.[citation 9. Secretary of Interior: needed] He has been repeatedly named to lists of the 100 Most Influential Americans, including 10. Secretary of Energy: those published by Life, Time, and The Atlantic. 11. Secretary of Commerce: described him as a life- 12. Secretary of Health and Human Services: long ‘dissident"’ Joseph A. Califano Jr. 13. Speaker of the House: Joe Kennedy III Nader made four bids to become President of the United States, running with the Green Party in 14. Secretary of Agriculture : Ann Veneman 1996 and 2000, the Reform Party in 2004, and as 15. Ambassador to the UN Jonathan Cohen an independent in 2008. In each campaign, Nader said he sought to highlight under-reported Note: Character biographies show their status as issues and a perceived need for electoral reform. of 1 January 2021, but their position in 2022, at He received nearly 3 million votes during his the start of this simulation. 2000 candidacy, but also stirred controversy over allegations that his campaign helped Republican candidate George W. Bush win a close election against Democratic candidate .

8 Ibid.

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civil rights movement. After settling in Vice President: Bernard Sanders in 1968, he ran unsuccessful third-party political campaigns in the early to mid-1970s. He was Bernard Sanders (born 1941) is an American elected mayor of Burlington in 1981 as an politician and United States senator from independent and was reelected three times. He Vermont since 2007. Before being elected to won election to the US House of Representatives Congress in 1991, he was mayor of Burlington, in 1990, representing Vermont's at-large Vermont. He is the longest-serving independent congressional district, later co-founding the in congressional history, although he has a close Congressional Progressive Caucus. He served as relationship with the Democratic Party, and a US Representative for 16 years before being caucused with House and Senate Democrats for elected to the Senate in 2006. Sanders was most of his congressional career. Sanders sought reelected to the Senate in 2012 and 2018. the Democratic Party nomination for president of the United States in 2016 and 2020, finishing in second place in both campaigns. Secretary of State: Nikki Haley

An advocate of social democratic and Nikki Haley (born Nimrata Randhawa in 1972) progressive policies, Sanders is known for his is an American politician, diplomat, clothing opposition to economic inequality and executive and author who served as governor of neoliberalism. On domestic policy, he supports from 2011 to 2017 and US labor rights, universal and single-payer ambassador to the United Nations from 2017-18. healthcare, paid parental leave, tuition-free tertiary education, and an ambitious Green New Haley was the first female governor of South Deal to create jobs addressing . Carolina, the youngest governor in the country On foreign policy, he supports reducing military and the second governor of Indian descent. She spending, pursuing more diplomacy and was the first Asian-American female governor, international cooperation, and putting greater and in 2017 became the first Indian-American in emphasis on labor rights and environmental a presidential cabinet.[ concerns when negotiating international trade agreements. Sanders describes himself as a Haley was born in Bamberg, South Carolina, democratic socialist, supports workplace and studied accountancy at . democracy, and has praised elements of the First elected to the South Carolina House of Nordic model. Some commentators have Representatives in 2004, she served three terms. described his as aligned with the New In 2010, during her third term, she was elected Deal policies of President Franklin Roosevelt governor of South Carolina and won re-election and left-wing populism. Sanders has been in 2014. After serving in an acting capacity and credited with influencing a leftward shift in the later formally confirmed as US Ambassador to Democratic Party since his 2016 presidential the UN, she stepped down on 31 December campaign. 2018.

Sanders was born into a working-class Jewish Chief of Staff: John Kerry family and raised in the borough of . He attended Brooklyn College John Kerry (born 1943) is an American before graduating from the University of politician and diplomat who served as US in 1964. While a student, he was an Senator and later as Secretary of State from active protest organizer for the Congress of 2013-17. An attorney and former naval officer, Racial Equality as well as for the Student Kerry first drew public attention as a decorated Nonviolent Coordinating Committee during the Vietnam veteran turned anti-war activist. He

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went on to serve as a prosecutor and as climate change on behalf of the United States. Governor of , before Kerry served as Secretary of State until the end serving as US Senator from Massachusetts from of the Obama administration in January 2017, 1985 to 2013. A member of the Democratic when he retired from government service. Party, he was the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2004 On 23 November 2020, President-elect Joe election, which he lost to incumbent President Biden announced that Kerry will serve as the George W. Bush. U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate in the Biden administration. From 1968-69, during the , he served in . While serving as the Secretary of Defense: Paul Nakasone commanding officer of a Swift boat, Kerry sustained three wounds in combat with the Viet Paul Miki Nakasone (born 1963) is a four-star Cong, earning three Medals. Kerry general in the US Army who previously served was awarded the Medal and the as the Commander of United States Cyber for valorous conduct in Command. Nakasone has held command and separate military engagements. Kerry returned to staff positions across all levels of the Army with the United States and became an outspoken assignments in the United States, the Republic opponent of the Vietnam War. He gained of Korea, , and . national recognition as an anti-war activist, serving as a spokesperson for the Vietnam He concurrently serves as the Director of the Veterans Against the War organization. , and as Chief of the Central Security Service. Previously, he served Kerry was elected Lieutenant Governor of as the Commander of the Massachusetts in 1982. In 1984, Kerry was Cyber Command. Nakasone took command of elected to the . As a the United States Second Army and Cyber member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Command in October 2016,[6] until the Second Relations, he led a series of hearings Army's inactivation in March 2017. In May investigating narcotics trafficking in Latin 2018, he became head of the National Security America, which exposed aspects of the – Agency, the Central Security Service, and the Contra affair. He was reelected to additional United States Cyber Command. terms in 1990, 1996, 2002 and 2008. Secretary of Homeland Security: Kerry won the Democratic party presidential nomination in 2004. Kerry lost the Electoral Jeh Charles Johnson ( born 1957) is an College and the popular vote by narrow margins, American lawyer and former government winning 251 electors to Bush's 286 and 48.3% official. He was United States Secretary of of the popular vote to Bush's 50.7%. Kerry Homeland Security from 2013 to 2017. remained in the Senate and chaired the Committee on Foreign Relations from 2009 to From 2009 to 2012, Johnson was the general 2013. In January 2013, he was nominated by counsel of the Department of Defense during the President to be Secretary of first years of the Obama administration. Before State. Kerry initiated the 2013–2014 Israeli– joining the Obama administration, he was a Palestinian peace talks and negotiated landmark federal prosecutor, the general counsel of the agreements restricting the nuclear program of Department of the Air Force, and an attorney in Iran, including the 2013 and private practice. the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In 2015, Kerry signed the on

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As of 2020, Johnson is a partner at the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison and a Trump dismissed Yates for insubordination on member of the boards of directors of Lockheed 30 January after she instructed the Justice Martin and U.S. Steel. Department not to make legal arguments defending , which Secretary of Treasury: Lael Brainard temporarily banned the admission of refugees and barred travel from certain Muslim-majority Lael Brainard (born 1962) is an American countries (later to include North Korea) on who has served on the Federal grounds that terrorists were using the U.S. Reserve Board of Governors since 2014. She refugee resettlement program to enter the previously served as the United States Under country. The ban was politically labeled as a Secretary of the Treasury for International Muslim ban. Rather than defend it, Yates stated Affairs from 2010 to 2013. She is a member of the order was neither defensible in court nor the Democratic Party. consistent with the Constitution.[ Though large portions of the order were initially blocked by The daughter of an American diplomat, Brainard federal courts, the Supreme Court ultimately was born in Hamburg and spent her childhood in upheld a revised version East and Poland. She graduated from Wesleyan University in 1983 and received a Following her dismissal, Yates returned to PhD from in 1989 as a private legal practice. She is considered a National Science Foundation Fellow. She was a candidate for Attorney General in a Biden professor at the Massachusetts Institute of administration. Technology for six years before joining the Clinton administration as an economic advisor Secretary of Interior: Tom Udall in 1997. She then worked as a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution from 2001 to 2009. Thomas (born 1948) is an American politician serving as the senior US Brainard was nominated by Barack Obama to Senator from , a seat he was first serve as the Under Secretary of the Treasury for elected to in 2008. A member of the Democratic International Affairs at the Department of the Party, he served in the House of Representatives Treasury, where she served 2010-13. Brainard for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district was nominated to the Fed board in 2014, and from 1999 to 2009 and was the Attorney confirmed by a 61–31 vote in the U.S. Senate. General of New Mexico from 1991 to 1999. Her 14-year term began four days later when she was sworn in by Fed chair . A member of the Udall family, he is the son of Stewart Udall, the nephew of , and the Attorney General: Sally Yates cousin of . He is the dean of New Mexico's congressional delegation. In 2019, Sally Quillian Yates (born Sally Caroline Udall announced that he would not seek a third Quillian in 1960) is an American lawyer. From term in the 2020 election, making him the only 2010 to 2015, she was United States Attorney Democratic senator to announce his retirement for the Northern District of Georgia. In 2015, in that election cycle. she was appointed United States Deputy Attorney General by President Barack Obama. Secretary of Energy: Rick Perry Following the inauguration of President and the departure of Attorney General James Richard ‘Rick’ Perry (born 1950) is an , in 2017 Yates served as Acting American politician who served as US Secretary Attorney General for 10 days. of Energy from 2017-19 and as Governor of

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Texas from 2000-15. Perry also ran Secretary of Commerce: Penny Pritzker unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in the 2012 Penny Sue Pritzker (born 1959) is an American and 2016 elections. billionaire businesswoman, entrepreneur, and civic leader. President Barack Obama nominated Born into a family of cotton farmers in Haskell, Pritzker as US Secretary of Commerce. Texas, Perry graduated from Texas A&M University in 1972 and entered into the US Air She worked her way up through the Pritzker Force, achieving the rank of captain. Perry was a family business, eventually being appointed as Democratic member of the Texas House of one of three successors to her uncle, Jay Representatives from 1985 to 1991. In 1989, Pritzker. She is the founder of PSP Partners, PSP Perry switched to the Republican Party, and was Capital Partners and Pritzker Realty Group and elected Governor of Texas in 2000. Perry was co-founder of Artemis Real Estate Partners and re-elected Governor three times, becoming the Inspired Capital. She also serves on the board of longest-serving Governor in Texas history. and is chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As of As Governor, Perry identified as a staunch September 2020, Forbes estimated her net worth conservative, enacting conservative fiscal at $2.7 billion. In 2009, Forbes named Pritzker policies, restrictions on and expanded one of the 100 most powerful women in the gun rights. Long considered a potential world. presidential candidate, Perry officially announced his candidacy for the 2012 Before entering government service, Pritzker Republican nomination for President in August had been involved in many Chicago 2011. Perry initially performed well in polling organizations, including the Chicago Board of and showed strong fundraising prowess, leading Education, Museum of Contemporary Art, to him being considered a serious contender for Chicago, and her own foundation, the Pritzker the nomination, however his support declined Traubert Family Foundation. Pritzker was an following poor performances in debates and early supporter of Obama's presidential early primaries and he withdrew from the race in candidacy, having been a friend of the Obama January 2012. family since their time in Chicago. Her brother, J. B. Pritzker, is the Governor of . Perry declined to run for re-election to a fourth term as Governor and left office in 2015, Secretary of Health and Human Services: launching a second presidential campaign Joseph A. Califano Jr. shortly after. Perry's second presidential campaign failed to garner substantial polling Joseph Anthony Califano Jr. (born 1931) is a support, fundraising or media attention, leading former US Secretary of Health, Education, and to him withdrawing from the race after only Welfare and the founder and chairman of The three months. Perry was later appointed by National Center on Addiction and Substance President Donald Trump as Secretary of Energy Abuse at Columbia University (CASA and he was confirmed by the United States Columbia), an evidence-based research Senate in a 62-37 vote on March 2, 2017. Perry organization. resigned as Secretary of Energy at the end of the 2019. He is one of two living former Secretaries of Health, Education, and Welfare (the other is his predecessor, Forrest David Mathews).

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He has been Adjunct Professor of Public Health nomination in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate (Health Policy and Management) at Columbia election. University Medical School (Department of Psychiatry) and School of Public Health and is a Secretary of Agriculture : Ann Veneman member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences. Ann Margaret Veneman (born 1949) is the former executive director of UNICEF, serving Speaker of the House: Joe Kennedy III from 2005-10. Previously, Veneman was the US Secretary of Agriculture, the first, and to date Joseph Patrick Kennedy III (born 1980) is an the only, woman to hold that position. Veneman American lawyer and politician serving as the served as USDA Secretary from 2001 to 2005, U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 4th leaving to become the fifth executive director of congressional district since 2013. A member of UNICEF. the Democratic Party, he represents a district that extends from 's western suburbs to A lawyer, Veneman has practiced law in the state's South Coast. He worked as an Washington, DC and California, including being assistant district attorney in the Cape and Islands a deputy public defender. She has also served in and Middlesex County, Massachusetts, offices other high level positions in US federal and state before his election to Congress. government, including being appointed California's Secretary of Food and Agriculture, A member of the , he is a son of serving from 1995 to 1999. U.S. Representative Joseph P. Kennedy II, a grandson of U.S. Senator and U.S. Attorney Veneman serves as a co-leader of the Nutrition General Robert F. Kennedy, a grandnephew of and Physical Activity Initiative at the Bipartisan U.S. President John F. Kennedy and U.S. Policy Center. Senator , and a great-grandson of U.S. Ambassador to the Joseph Ambassador to the UN Jonathan Cohen P. Kennedy Sr. Jonathan Cohen is the director of the Open Born in Boston, Kennedy was raised in the area Society Public Health Program where he with his twin brother, Matthew Rauch Kennedy. oversees grant making and advocacy to improve After graduating from with social inclusion in public health policy and a bachelor's degree, he spent two years in the practice. as a member of the Peace A Canadian lawyer, Cohen joined the Open Corps before earning a at Harvard Society Foundations in 2006 as director of the Law School in 2009. Law and Health Initiative where he oversaw legal and litigation in over 15 countries. He He resigned from his role as assistant district then served as deputy director of the Public attorney in early 2012 to run for the U.S. House Health Program from 2012 to 2016. He is a of Representatives seat held by the retiring former member and co-chair of UNAIDS . Kennedy was sworn into office in Reference Group on HIV/AIDS and Human January 2013 and sits on the House Committee Rights. on Energy and Commerce. From 2002 to 2006, Cohen was a researcher In 2020, rather than run for reelection to his with the HIV/AIDS and Human Rights Program House seat, Kennedy unsuccessfully challenged at Human Rights Watch, conducting Senator for the Democratic investigations of police misconduct against criminalized populations, restrictions on

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sexuality education and access to condoms, violence and discrimination against orphans of Cohen has degrees from Yale College, the HIV, and trafficking of children into forced University of Cambridge, and the University of labor. He has served on the scientific committee Toronto Faculty of Law. He has served as a law of two International AIDS Conferences and is clerk at the Supreme Court of and as co- co-editor of Health and Human Rights: A editor-in-chief of the University of Toronto Resource Guide. Faculty of Law Review.

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Bibliography

‘Article II, Section, Clause 6,’ Constitution Annotated, n.d., https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/section-1/clause-6/ ‘Article Two of the United States Constitution’, Wikipedia, n.d., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_ disability

‘Designated Survivor: Season 1 (2016 - 2017)’ Rotten Tomatoes, n.d., https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/designated_survivor/s01

Jack Goldsmith and Ben Miller-Gootnick, ‘A Presidential Succession Nightmare’, Lawfare, 25 March 2020, https://www.lawfareblog.com/presidential-succession-nightmare ;

Joel Goldstein, ‘Presidential Succession Act of 1947’, C-Span, 6 October 2020, https://www.c- span.org/classroom/document/?17228

Norman J. Ornstein, ‘It's Armageddon: Who's in Charge Here?’ American Enterprise Institute, 9 February 2004, https://www.aei.org/articles/its-armageddon/

Brad Sherman, ‘Serious Flaws Exist in Our Presidential Succession Laws’, Roll Call, 31 January 2011, https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/opinion-editorials/serious-flaws-exist-in-our-presidential- succession-laws

‘United States presidential line of succession’, Wikipedia, n.d., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

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