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Autonomous Horizons The Way Forward A vision for Air Force senior leaders of the potential for autonomous systems, and a general framework for the science and technology community to advance the state of the art Dr. Greg L. Zacharias Chief Scientist of the United States Air Force 2015–2018 The second volume in a series introduced by: Autonomous Horizons: Autonomy in the Air Force – A Path to the Future, Volume 1: Human Autonomy Teaming (AF/ST TR 15-01) March 2019 Air University Press Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Maxwell AFB, Alabama Chief of Staff, US Air Force Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gen David L. Goldfein Names: Zacharias, Greg, author. | Air University (U.S.). Press, publisher. Commander, Air Education and Training | United States. Department of Defense. United States Air Force. Command Title: Autonomous horizons : the way forward / by Dr. Greg L. Zacha- Lt Gen Steven L. Kwast rias. Description: First edition. | Maxwell Air Force Base, AL : AU Press, 2019. “Chief Scientist for the United States Air Force.” | Commander and President, Air University Lt Gen Anthony J. Cotton “January 2019.” |Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2018061682 | ISBN 9781585662876 Commander, Curtis E. LeMay Center for Subjects: LCSH: Aeronautics, Military—Research—United States. | Doctrine Development and Education United States. Air Force—Automation. | Artificial intelligence— Maj Gen Michael D. Rothstein Military applications—United States. | Intelligent control systems. | Autonomic computing—United States. Director, Air University Press Lt Col Darin M. Gregg Classification: LCC UG643 .Z33 2019 | DDC 358.407—dc23 | SUDOC D 301.26/6: AU 8/2 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018061682 Project Editor Donna Budjenska Published by Air University Press in March 2019 Cover and Book Design and Illustrations Daniel Armstrong Composition and Prepress Production Nedra Looney Print Preparation and Distribution Diane Clark MSgt Ericka Gilliam Disclaimer Autonomous Horizons: The Way Forward is a product of the Office Air University Press 600 Chennault Circle, Bldg 1405 of the US Air Force Chief Scientist (AF/ST). Opinions, conclu- Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6026 sions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely http://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of AUPress/ Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ release, distribution unlimited. AirUnivPress and Twitter: https://twitter.com/aupress Air University Press Contents List of Illustrations . v List of Tables . ix List of Abbreviations and Acronyms . xi Foreword . xvii Acknowledgments . xix Executive Summary . xxi 1 Introduction ...................................... 1 1.1 Motivation and Benefits . 2 1.2 Definitions and Summary of Past Studies . 12 1.3 Operational Challenges and Behavioral Implications 16 1.4 Development Challenges and Opportunities . 24 1.5 Future Vision ................................. 34 1.6 Outline ...................................... 39 2 Properties for Proficiency . 43 2.1 Situated Agency ............................... 43 2.2 Adaptive Cognition............................ 49 2.3 Multiagent Emergence ......................... 61 2.4 Experiential Learning .......................... 69 3 Tenets of Trust . 77 3.1 Cognitive Congruence and Transparency ......... 84 3.2 Situation Awareness ........................... 88 3.3 Human-Systems Integration .................... 97 3.4 Human-System Teaming and Training ........... 107 4 Convergence of Communities . 117 4.1 Robotics and Cybernetics....................... 119 4.2 Cognitive Psychology and the Neurosciences...... 121 4.3 Symbolic Logic and Subsymbolic Logic .......... 128 4.4 Basis of a Common Framework . 138 iv │ AUTONOMOUS HORIZONS 5 Framework and Functions . 141 5.1 Considerations for a Framework................. 142 5.2 Example Framework .......................... 144 5.3 Component Functions ......................... 146 5.4 Functions not Represented in the Example Framework ................................... 188 6 Recommendations ................................. 195 6.1 Behavioral Objectives . 198 6.2 Architectures and Technologies ................. 204 6.3 Challenge Problems............................ 209 6.4 Development Processes ........................ 220 6.5 Organizational Structures ...................... 228 6.6 Knowledge Platform . 236 6.7 Summary of Recommendations ................. 241 6.8 Closing Comments ............................ 245 Appendix A Review of Past Studies .............................. 249 B Frequently Asked Questions......................... 269 C Sensor Processing and Fusion . 279 D Human-Systems Integration Project Example ......... 291 E Toolsets and Datasets ............................... 297 F Example Challenge Problems........................ 307 G Example Technical Integration Experiments.......... 317 H Autonomous System Vignette . 321 I Test and Evaluation of Autonomous Systems .......... 323 References . 327 Illustrations Figure 1.1 DOD Framework-to-Solution space under the Third Offset Strategy............................................ 3 1.2 Air Force Future Operating Concept—19 implications ... 5 1.3 Autonomy could transform many Air Force missions .... 8 1.4 Antiaccess/Area-Denial (A2/AD) operational space . 10 1.5 Autonomy behaviors and task, peer, and cognitive flexibilities ......................................... 12 1.6 Relationships among AS proficiency, trust, and flexibility .......................................... 24 1.7 Multiple streams of research and development leading to a common framework for ASs . 27 1.8 Example architectural pattern for AS development . 30 1.9a Today’s platform-centric view of the Air Force .......... 37 1.9b Tomorrow’s information-centric view of the Air Force ... 38 2.1a Situated agent with a human teammate . 46 2.1b Situated agent with multiple human teammates and agents ............................................. 47 2.1c Situated agent implementing the SAA paradigm . 49 2.2 Braitenberg’s vehicle “Love” .......................... 65 2.3 Waves of artificial intelligence ........................ 72 2.4 Expert Systems TurboTax® ........................... 73 2.5 Example of second wave of AI: deep learning ........... 74 2.6 The need for explainable AI . 75 3.1 (a) Benign commercial environment; (b) adversarial defense environment ....................................... 77 vi │ AUTONOMOUS HORIZONS 3.2 Trust-reliability space and quadrants of appropriate and inappropriate trust .................................. 80 3.3 (a) A case where a lack of situation awareness has comical consequences.; (b) a case where a lack of situation awareness has potential fatal consequences. ...................... 89 3.4 Example perceptual-cycle model ...................... 90 3.5 Example Human Information Processing Model ........ 91 3.6 Model of situation awareness in dynamic decision making ............................................ 92 3.7 SA is critical to human-autonomy teaming . 94 3.8 SA stages for both humans and AS and their components ........................................ 95 3.9 Infinite regression of two teammates’ internal models of one another ...................................... 96 3.10 Modified automation taxonomy....................... 101 4.1 Multiple streams of research and development leading to a common framework for autonomous systems ......... 119 4.2 Neuron ............................................ 125 4.3 Broca’s and Wernicke’s Areas . 125 4.4 Columnar organization of visual receptive fields......... 127 5.1 Example autonomous systems framework . 145 5.2 Example processing chain for multiple sensors . 152 5.3 CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) ................................ 158 5.4 Tasks and outputs for each of the six components of the CRISP-DM model ............................. 160 6.1 Relationship between autonomous system proficiency, trust, and flexibility ................................. 203 ILLUSTRATIONS │ vii 6.2 Example architectural pattern for AS development....... 208 6.3 DOD Autonomy Community of Interest: challenge areas .............................................. 211 6.4 Framework for AS development process................ 223 6.5a Wargaming of concepts .............................. 223 6.5b Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis . 224 6.5c Prototyping and experimentation . 225 6.6 A series of technical integration experiments ........... 226 6.7 Autonomy Capabilities Team with a flatarchy organizational structure.............................. 231 6.8 Pathfinder between ACT, AFRL TDs, and AFOSR . 233 6.9 Knowledge Platform components . 238 6.10 Knowledge Platform core . 239 D.1 Three HMIs to specify play and unmanned vehicle type with mouse or touch ............................ 292 D.2 AS-generated plans.................................. 293 D.3 Map showing Play Workbook and proposed vehicle and route on the map.................................... 293 D.4 Active Play Table HMI............................... 295 D.5 Play Quality Matrix ................................. 295 G.1 A series of technical integration experiments ........... 317 Tables 2.1 Clusters of attributes associated with dual-process theories of cognition ................................ 59 5.1 Example list of toolsets and datasets for the toolsets and
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