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Distribution of the Egyptian Reptiles Under Current and Future Climates

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Distribution of the Egyptian Reptiles Under Current and Future Climates distribution of thE Egyptian rEptilEs undEr currEnt and futurE climatEs By: Ahmed El-Gabbas Supervisor: Dr. Francis Gilbert A thesis presented to the School of Biology, The University of Nottingham in partial fulllment of the requirements for the degree of Master by Research (Conservation Biology). The University of Nottingham, School of Biology, September, 2012 https://elgabbas.github.io/ Abstract Climate change has caused range shifts and extinctions of many species in the past. In this study, the effects of climate change on Egyptian reptiles, as a representative of the Egyptian fauna, was investigated for the first time using species distribution models, relatively new tools now used in a variety of fields from conservation planning to the assessment of species’ responses to climate change. In this study, the Maxent algorithm was used to model the current and future distributions of 75 terrestrial reptile species from Egypt. The modelled distribution for current conditions for each species was projected into the future for three time slices (2020, 2050 and 2080) using two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) from four global circulation models (CCCma, CSIRO, HadCM3 and NIES99) and under two assumptions of dispersal ability (unlimited dispersal and no dispersal). This produced a total of 48 projections for each species. Current and future species richness patterns were determined from the results using the average response across the different global circulation models to represent a consensus view. For each species, possible changes in range were calculated and used to assess future threat status. A national Red Data listing for the Egyptian reptiles was determined to show which species require more conservation measures. Zonation software was used for conservation prioritization to show which areas require more protection under current and future climates, and to assess the effectiveness of Egypt’s Protected Areas network to conserve reptiles. Climate change is predicted to vary in its effects spatially, with some areas characterized by increased species richness while others show declines. Future range changes are predicted to vary among species and among different future projections, from the loss of the entire range (Tarentola mindiae and Hemidactylus robustus) to large gains in range (Hemidactylus flaviviridis). No species was predicted to lose its entire currently suitable range under all scenarios. Tarentola mindiae and Hemidactylus robustus were predicted to become extinct from Egypt in the future in at least one future projection. Another eight species were predicted to lose more than 80% of their current distribution in the future. According to IUCN guidelines and II criteria, under current conditions, three species were classified as nationally Endangered and 24 species as Vulnerable. Although Protected Areas have greater conservation value compared to unprotected areas, Egypt’s Protected-Areas network seems to be inadequate to conserve Egyptian reptiles. My results suggest the need to construct new Protected Areas in a variety of places across northern Egypt from between Mersa Matruh and Sallum to the Gebel El-Hallal area in northern Sinai. Some Protected Areas require stricter protection in the future to counter the threats derived from climate change. Keywords: Climate Change; Conservation prioritization; Egyptian herpetofauna; Egyptian reptiles; Maxent; Species Distribution Modelling; Species extinctions; Species range change; Species richness; Species Turnover; Zonation. III Acknowledgement First of all, I sincerely thank Allah Almighty for giving me strength and ability to complete this study. I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Francis Gilbert, for his great support, advice and mentorship throughout this study. I am particularly grateful to him and Prof. Samy Zalat (Suez Canal University, Egypt) for their enthusiasm, encouragement and guidance through the past several years since working under their supervision at the BioMAP project. This thesis would not have been completed without their support. Many thanks are given for: Dr. Tim Newbold (UNEP-WCMC and Microsoft Research Fellow) for introducing GIS and Species Distribution Modelling for me, giving me a chance to join his PhD fieldwork in Egypt and for sharing his field records; Dr. Sherif Baha El Din for providing his valuable database records of the Egyptian herpetofauna; Dr. Moustafa Fouda (former director of the Nature Conservation Sector, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency) for his support throughout my work with BioMAP project and Nature Conservation Sector; Mindy Baha El Din for providing valuable information on the current status of the Egyptian tortoise; Abdelwahab Afefe and Mahmoud Boghdady (Nature Conservation Sector) for providing me of the coordinates of the latest declared Protected Areas (Mount Kamel Meteor and El-Wahat El- Bahreya); BioMAP former staff and Nature Conservation Sector team; and all the scientists and volunteers who contributed data to the databases used. This research study is sponsored by Chevening Scholarships. I am indebted to British Council in Egypt and the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office for their generous support throughout my stay in Britain. Finally, I would like to thank my parents and sisters for their continuous support, encouragement and patience. IV “Dedicated to the soul of Prof. Mohamed El Kassas, the outstanding Egyptian naturalist and doyen of wildlife conservation in Egypt, who passed away earlier this year.” V Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................... II Acknowledgement ...................................................................................... IV List of Tables................................................................................................ VIII List of Figures ............................................................................................. IX List of Acronyms ......................................................................................... XII Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Issues about the data required for distribution models .................... 3 The choice of model algorithms ........................................................ 6 Assessing model performance .......................................................... 7 Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) .............................................. 13 Climate change and biodiversity ....................................................... 18 Relevance to Egypt ............................................................................. 21 Aim of study ....................................................................................... 24 Methods ...................................................................................................... 25 Study area – Egypt ............................................................................ 25 Study species – Egyptian reptiles ..................................................... 25 Environmental predictor variables ..................................................... 27 Species distribution modelling ........................................................... 39 Comparisons across species ............................................................ 42 Area prioritization for conservation .................................................... 46 Results ........................................................................................................ 50 Model performance ............................................................................ 50 Most influential environmental variables ........................................... 50 Species richness ................................................................................ 51 Species Gains and Losses ................................................................ 55 Species Turnover ............................................................................... 58 Range Changes ................................................................................. 59 Reptile species classifications ........................................................... 65 Reptile records in Protected Areas ................................................... 66 Area prioritization for conservation .................................................... 67 VI Discussion .................................................................................................. 106 Model performance ............................................................................. 106 Variables contributing to the models ................................................. 107 Species richness and turnover ........................................................... 109 Range Changes & important species for conservation ..................... 112 Area prioritization for conservation & Protected Areas coverage ..... 121 The limitations of projecting into the future ....................................... 126 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 127 References ................................................................................................... 131 Appendices .................................................................................................. 148 VII List of Tables Table 1: The confusion matrix .....................................................................
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