BELARUS IN FOCUS:
ANNUAL REVIEW 2020
AND FORECAST FOR 2021 SUMMARY FORECAST FOR 2021
The collapse of the ruling regime will remain likely through 2021
The power bloc will retain significant influence in domestic politics
Political organisations are likely to enter new alliances and attempt to engage in dialogue with the ruling elites as civil society is expected to become more financially secure and viable
The political crisis in relations between Belarus and the West will worsen in 2021
Russia may try to trade its influence in Belarus for the alleviation of Western sanctions; if not, it is likely to continue moderate support for Lukashenka
2 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 CONTENTS
The Ruling Elite...... 4
Security...... 8
Civil Society and Political Parties...... 12
Belarus–West relations...... 18
Belarus–Russia relations...... 21
COLOR KEY
THE SITUATION HAS DETERIORATED
THE SITUATION HAS NOT CHANGED
THE SITUATION HAS IMPROVED
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 3 THE RULING ELITE
2020: THE STATE LOST TOUCH WITH SOCIETY AND RESUMED FINANCIAL INTERVENTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
By Zmicier Kuchlej In 2020, the ruling class faced the most severe challenges of the last 20 years, including the coronavirus outbreak, the presidential election and mass rallies opposing the official results. The existing political system failed to address these issues, and the ruling class was forced to revert to 20th-century governance practices. The mobilisation of a militarized governance style was unable to arrest the weakening of the state and further reduced popular support for public institutions. However, the incumbent ruler and his clique managed to buy time and indefinitely delay any transition process.
4 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 Lukashenka‘s coronavirus rhetoric and lack of action to address this challenge frustrated the Education and Health ministries‘ operations, negatively affecting their public image. In the first weeks after the presidential election, IN THE FIRST the ruling elite‘s monolith of power fractured WEEKS AFTER THE and amid ever diminishing popular support PRESIDENTIAL for public institutions, the Belarusian state ELECTION, THE machine is weakening. RULING ELITE'S MONOLITH Lukashenka has lost his previous support OF POWER among most social groups. Loyalty to him is at FRACTURED a historic low, yet he retains power and control AND AMID EVER over the ruling elites, the security forces and DIMINISHING the edifice of power he created. Loyalty among POPULAR public servants is also gradually eroding, and SUPPORT many have already resigned from the civil FOR PUBLIC service. INSTITUTIONS, THE BELARUSIAN Simultaneously, the political weight of the STATE MACHINE IS security forces has peaked and liberals in WEAKENING the government have lost influence. The National Bank remains the last stronghold of technocrats but retains political disengagement.
The public sector‘s lobbying for state subsidies and investment, including for loss-making public enterprises, has succeeded. The current government‘s primary preoccupation is retaining control over the labour movement and preserving public sector jobs.
Small and medium-sized businesses receive minimal, if any, state aid. Before and after the presidential election, the state increased financial pressure on the private sector, demonstrating high electoral and protest mobilisation capacity. Simultaneously, the
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 5 leadership remained committed to an informal pact with large loyal businesses with no political ambitions.
BY THE END In the spring of 2020, the education system OF 2020, was disoriented due to the coronavirus THERE WERE outbreak. For several weeks, the authorities 160 POLITICAL lost control over the education sector, and PRISONERS despite significant pressure from Lukashenka, IN BELARUS around 40% of parents refused to take their FACING CRIMINAL children to schools. CHARGES AND OVER 32,000 The authorities‘ inconsistent response firstly CASES OF to the coronavirus challenge, and then to ADMINISTRATIVE post-election rallies, has prompted doctors to ARRESTS take a pro-active opposing stance regarding state actions while continuing to fight in the frontlines of the coronavirus outbreak. In the spring, Civil Society organised substantial support for doctors to help them to address these challenges.
Towards the end of 2020, the cost of protest activity gradually increased. After August 9, the hefty fines previously imposed upon rally participants were replaced with harsh crackdowns, arrests, torture, dismissals, and academic expulsions. The actions of security forces resulted in several killings. By the end of 2020, there were 160 political prisoners in Belarus facing criminal charges and over 32,000 cases of administrative arrests.
In the second half of 2020, the state changed legislation and law enforcement practice several times, essentially placing the security forces outside the law. In the election aftermath, the incumbent ruler delegated some punitive functions to civil servants
6 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 (housing and utility services, education and social security officials) for use against some parents, IT workers and larger social and territorial groups.
FORECASTS FOR 2021
Security officials are likely to retain the level of influence and repression and the ruling elite would not engage in a dialogue with the opposition on ultimatum terms
Budgetary intervention in the public sector of the economy will maintain current employment levels
The gap between the ruling elite and society will widen further; the regime support base will continue to narrow and erode
The gap between the ruling elite and society will widen further; the regime support base will continue to narrow and erode
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 7 SECURITY
2020: A YEAR OF SECURITY LOSSES
By Andrei Parotnikau 2020 was a challenging year for national security and defence. For the first time in many years, the ratio of gains to losses was persistently negative. The participation of all law enforcement agencies in the suppression of protests, the deteriorating financial situation in military industry, the involvement of law enforcement agency heads in anti- Western propaganda, and Lukashenka‘s appeal to Putin for military support have compromised Belarus‘ reputation as an independent voice on international security issues.
The financial situation in the military-industrial complex has become more complicated. Although Goskomvoenprom [the State Military Industry Committee] does not disclose specific performance indicators, indirect evidence points to a deterioration in
8 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 financial performance. It appears that every fifth rouble of the military industry wage bill is financed by bank loans (from March to October this share increased 6.6% to 21.1%). The excessive concentration of defence products remains an issue: the three largest companies provide over 70% of industrial output within Goskomvoenprom (25 enterprises, 22 manufacturers). The EU sanctions against several leading Belarusian military industry enterprises will also harm their performance. Protest rally against Practically all law enforcement agencies, Lukashenka, including the army, border guards and the 30 August 2020. Ministry of Emergency Situations, were Minsk, Belarus Homoatrox
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 9 Homoatrox
Protest rally against involved in the regime‘s punitive campaign Lukashenka, against widespread protests. Amid reduced 30 August 2020. popular support for public institutions, the Minsk, Belarus involvement of previously apolitical security institutions in assisting the Lukashenka regime has damaged their reputation with the people.
High-ranking military officials directly participated in the crackdown on the protest movement and engaged in the propaganda campaign against the protests. This narrative included accusations against the West of planning military aggression against Belarus and allegations of subversive activities against Minsk directed at Ukraine. These repressions and the aggressive rhetoric of officialdom have voided all of the recent years‘ modest successes towards building a regional
10 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 security dialogue. The fact that the Western threat is just a propaganda tool is evidenced by the absence of any significant national defence funding increase. REPRESSIONS Lukashenka’s appeal to the Kremlin requesting AND THE assistance in suppressing popular protests AGGRESSIVE and the scale of Russian participation in RHETORIC OF the “Slavic Brotherhood” exercises have OFFICIALDOM cancelled out any perception of Minsk as HAVE VOIDED ALL an independent player in the international OF THE RECENT security arena. However, despite this, there YEARS' MODEST are no direct signs of deepening cooperation SUCCESSES between Minsk and Moscow. TOWARDS BUILDING A REGIONAL SECURITY DIALOGUE
FORECASTS FOR 2021
The power bloc will retain significant influence in domestic politics
The Belarusian authorities will continue attempts to involve Moscow in their confrontation with the Belarusian society
Belarus’ political weight in addressing regional security issues will reduce
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 11 CIVIL SOCIETY AND POLITICAL PARTIES
2020: CIVIL SOCIETY COMPENSATES FOR STATE FAILURES, AS POLITICAL ORGANISATIONS ENGAGE SOCIETY IN TRANSFORMATION
By Zmicier Kuchlej The state response to the coronavirus outbreak and other incumbent authorities‘ policy failures created new opportunities for Civil Society and political organisations in 2020. Civil society has provided support in areas where the state did not act efficiently: healthcare, education and assistance to victims of state repression. New political forces, representing previously inactive social groups, set the election and post- election agendas. For the first time in Belarus‘ modern history, citizens and emigrants launched hugely successful fundraising for political and public projects.
12 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 Homoatrox
In 2020 Civil Society organised the most Protest rally against successful fundraising campaign in the Lukashenka, history of modern Belarus. This started with 16 August 2020. a fundraiser to help doctors and victims of Minsk, Belarus COVID-19 and gradually gained strength and expanded its scope. In the wake of the presidential election, fundraising initiatives helped victims of repression and supported a range of public initiatives, repeatedly breaking fundraising records.
Early in 2020, conventional opposition political organisations, including the United Civil Party (UCP), the Belarusian Popular Front, Belarusian Christian Democracy (BCD), the “For Freedom Movement”, and the Belarusian Social Democratic Party “Hramada” (BSDG), tried to form a national agenda for the primaries long before the presidential election was announced. The primaries were never completed due to the emergence of new
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 13 public figures with presidential ambitions from outside of the usual opposition. Despite their relative popularity and public interest, the primaries did not result in a “single candidate THREE WOMEN, nomination.” SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA, Participants in the primaries lost influence on VERANIKA the political agenda, however, the UCP and TSEPKALA (THE BCD joined the headquarters of the new SPOUSES OF wave of candidates at an early stage of the TSIKHANOUSKI campaign and thus remained in the political AND TSEPKALA process. RESPECTIVELY) AND MARIA Andrei Dzmitryeu from “Tell the Truth”, KOLESNIKOVA Siarhei Cherechen from the BSDG and self- (FROM nominated ex-MP Hanna Kanapatskaya tried to BABARYKA'S strengthen their support base via participation TEAM) MERGED in the presidential election. Newly emerged ELECTORAL candidates eclipsed them; however, former HEADQUARTERS presidential candidate Andrei Dzmitryeu AND BECAME continues to build political capital. THE SYMBOL OF CHANGE Mikalai Statkevich, leader of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party Narodnaya Hramada (Belarus has three different Social Democratic parties) initially implemented a strategy of nominating over 30 protest candidates, including vlogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski. Mikalai Statkevich and Siarhei Tsikhanouski were arrested in the wake of the campaign; therefore, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Siarhei‘s wife, applied for and was registered as a candidate with the support by activists from the Statkevich team.
The election and post-election agendas were formed by new political organisations representing previously inactive sections of the electorate, mainly from the private sector:
14 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 Homoatrox
Viktar Babaryka, Valery Tsepkala, and Siarhei Protest rally against Tsikhanouski all announced presidential Lukashenka, ambitions. The authorities regarded them as 16 August 2020. a serious threat and refused to register any of Minsk, Belarus them, arresting Babaryka and Tsikhanouski.
Three women, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Veranika Tsepkala (the spouses of Tsikhanouski and Tsepkala respectively) and Maria Kolesnikova (from Babaryka‘s team) merged electoral headquarters and became the symbol of change. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya then rallied the entire protest electorate and mobilised a mass voter turnout, incidentally demonstrating that the electoral system was only designed for some 3 million people (or less than 50% of voters).
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 15 This massive mobilisation of voters to observe the electoral process led to some polling stations commissioners being unable to falsify the results, showing that Tsikhanouskaya THE RIGGED scored significantly more than Lukashenka. ELECTION ON The Golos platform, where more than 1.2 AUGUST 9 AND million voters registered, recorded her victory. POLICE VIOLENCE AGAINST The rigged election on August 9 and police PROTESTERS violence against protesters on August 9-11 ON AUGUST inspired a sustained protest movement, 9-11 INSPIRED involving at least 300k-500k new activists A SUSTAINED across the country. In the first weeks after PROTEST the election, the demonstrators controlled MOVEMENT, the central squares and streets of the capital, INVOLVING AT large cities and even regional centres. By the LEAST 300K-500K end of October, after harsh repression by NEW ACTIVISTS the authorities, the protests transformed into ACROSS THE dispersed demonstrations and other forms COUNTRY of activity, yet did not abate despite the cold weather.
The Tsikhanouskaya team – Tsikhanouskaya herself was forced to relocate to Lithuania on August 9-10, maintains close contacts with new protest activists. During the first days of her forced emigration, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya initiated the Coordination Council to represent the protest movement in a dialogue regarding the transfer of power from the Lukashenka regime. The Coordination Council Board was comprised of participants in the primaries, intellectuals, and a labour movement representative. Lukashenka launched a criminal investigation on charges of attempted, unconstitutional seizure of power and incrementally arrested or forced into exile members of the Coordination Council board. The members who have found
16 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 themselves abroad are coordinating civic projects in Belarus with Tsikhanouskaya‘s team.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Coordination Council shape Western capitals‘ agendas concerning Belarus and lobby for a gradual increase of sanctions pressure on the ruling class.
FORECASTS FOR 2021
Political organisations are likely to enter new alliances and attempt to engage in dialogue with the ruling elites
The majority of political organisations are likely to retain the ultimatum agenda demanding the transfer of power from Lukashenka and new elections
Civil society is likely to become more financially independent and viable, discovering new ways to raise funds through the diaspora and other fundraising initiatives
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 17 BELARUS– WEST RELATIONS
2020: BELARUSIAN OFFICIALDOM AND THE WEST ARE ENEMIES AGAIN
By Dzianis Melyantsou In 2020, Belarus‘ relations with the West divided into ‚before‘ and ‚after‘ the presidential election. ‚Before‘ there some normalisation of relations with both the European Union and the United States of America. ‚After‘ the allegations of rigged elections supported by evidence and the unprecedented scale of state repression against the people, abruptly ended this process, putting Belarus back to square one in relations with the West.
2020 started with a breakthrough in relations with the West - US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo‘s visit to Minsk and agreements on the supply of American oil to the Belarusian market. The parties had come close to restoring ambassadorial level diplomatic relations.
18 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 Belarus‘ relations with the EU also had a positive dynamic. The lengthy and painful process of preparing agreements on visa facilitation and readmission had come to an end. On July 1, the agreements entered into force, and the cost of a Schengen visa for Belarusians dropped to 35 euros. The intensity of high-level contacts between Belarus and the EU member states continued to grow. Several highest level visits to the EU were planned but never materialised due to the coronavirus outbreak, which also affected the intensity of Belarus‘ other international Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya contacts. Simultaneously, issues on the in the European Belarus-West agenda changed dramatically, Parliament, 16 December primarily focusing on discussions of short and 2020. Brussels, Belgium Image by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's official Telegram channel. Telegram official Image by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 19 medium-term responses to the pandemic challenges.
The presidential election and the harsh THE crackdown on peaceful rallies by the PRESIDENTIAL Belarusian authorities abruptly curtailed ELECTION AND the trend towards normalising relations and THE HARSH returned Belarus to a state of isolation; the CRACKDOWN EU and the US imposed sanctions against ON PEACEFUL Belarusian officials several legal entities and RALLIES BY THE business people. For the first time in modern BELARUSIAN Belarusian history, with the support of Russia, AUTHORITIES Minsk introduced reciprocal sanctions ABRUPTLY against the European Union and reduced CURTAILED THE its level of participation in several bilateral TREND TOWARDS and multilateral forums. By the end of 2020, NORMALISING Belarusian officialdom and Western countries RELATIONS found themselves in a state of deep political AND RETURNED crisis, which is likely to continue to deteriorate BELARUS TO in 2021 as the EU and the United States A STATE OF introduce new sanctions. ISOLATION
FORECASTS FOR 2021
Belarus’ relations with the EU and the US will [continue to] deteriorate
The independence of Belarus’ foreign policy will be curtailed
20 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 BELARUS– RUSSIA RELATIONS
2020: BELARUS AND RUSSIA RELATIONS INCREASINGLY LOOK LIKE INTERNAL, NOT INTERNATIONAL
In 2020, Russian conflict continued to grow By Anatol Pankouski until the elections and the clampdown on the first wave of protests. After this, Belarus abandoned the Western foreign policy, becoming decisively dependent on Russia. However, the ruling clique‘s methods have been so toxic that even the Kremlin hesitates to provide pro-active support.
For Belarus and Russia, 2020 began with the largest conflict in the history of bilateral relations regarding Russian oil supply. For the first four months, the parties operated without a general agreement on oil due to the Belarusian side‘s disagreement with Russian tax policy.
In April, the list of conflict issues with Russia expanded: in addition to the oil issue disputes arose over the price of gas supplies (which,
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 21 against the background of a drop in spot prices, turned out to be unreasonably high for Belarus), tension over trade barriers, terms of the Russian loan for construction of the THE RULING Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant and sharp CLIQUE'S divergence in anti-covid policies, which led to METHODS HAVE the closure of the Belarusian-Russian border BEEN SO TOXIC for the movement of people. THAT EVEN THE KREMLIN Moreover, during the Belarus election HESITATES TO campaign, Belarusian officialdom alleged PROVIDE PRO- that Russia was encroaching on Belarusian ACTIVE SUPPORT sovereignty and acting as an incubator of “puppeteers” directly interfering in the internal political process. Belarusian propaganda claimed that the opposition contenders were agents of Russia and aimed at destroying Belarusian statehood in the interests of the Russian ruling class.
After the facts of torture and humiliation in Belarusian remand prisons and the deaths of protesters became known on August 12 (also thanks to Russian journalists), Lukashenka began urgently seeking Putin‘s support and official rhetoric pivoted from anti-Russian to strongly anti-Western. The Kremlin recognised Lukashenka‘s victory immediately, but for about a month afterwards was in no hurry to offer support. However, on September 14, at a meeting in Sochi, Putin promised Lukashenka a $ 1.5 billion loan, media assistance (to replace Belarusian propagandists who quit state media outlets in protest) and, upon additional request, assistance from troops and/or police forces.
Simultaneously, Putin approved the plan of constitutional reforms presented by Lukashenka
22 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 kremlin.ru
purported to facilitate national reconciliation. It appeared that constitutional reform and Aliaksandr Lukashenka decentralisation of power were the necessary and Vladimir Putin, preconditions of Russian support. However, 14 September 2020. despite numerous statements by Russian Sochi, Russia dignitaries about the expected frameworks and timing of changes to the Belarusian constitution, Lukashenka, as the number of arrests grew and public protests became less massive, became less and less willing to address this issue. As a result, Lukashenka has stopped talking about the constitutional reform until the end of the year.
Russian support was limited but sufficient. In 2020, two tranches of a $500 million Russian loan were received and Russian propaganda propped up Lukashenka. The oil and gas agreements for 2021 were concluded on the terms of 2020 (Belarus, however, regards them as not fraternal).
It is significant that in 2020 the collapse of the post-Soviet imperial complex pivoting
BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 23 around Russia received additional impetus, and Belarus turned out to be only a part of this process. In the autumn, there was another revolution in Kyrgyzstan, a war in Nagorno- IT IS SIGNIFICANT Karabakh which allowed Turkey to consolidate THAT IN 2020 influence in the region, elections in Moldova, THE COLLAPSE won by pro-European candidate Maria Sandu, OF THE POST- and finally, lengthy protests in Khabarovsk. SOVIET IMPERIAL Additionally, there was an unsuccessful attempt COMPLEX to assassinate Navalny, which undermined PIVOTING AROUND the Russian special services‘ reputation for RUSSIA RECEIVED omnipotence. Aside from Russia‘s internal ADDITIONAL processes, in all these cases in the post- IMPETUS, AND Soviet space, Russia responded reluctantly BELARUS TURNED demonstrating an unwillingness to reciprocate OUT TO BE ONLY loyalty with money, military intervention or A PART OF THIS political authority. This is also true for Belarus; PROCESS current support for Lukashenka did not exceed the usual assistance in quiet years.
FORECASTS FOR 2021
The relatively low-key involvement of the Kremlin in Belarusian affairs is likely to continue
Russia may try to trade its influence in Belarus for the alleviation of Western sanctions as she did with Armenia during the Karabakh war
If not, Russia is likely to continue to support Lukashenka to a limited extent
24 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 AUTHORS: Zmicier Kuchlej, Andrei Parotnikau, Dzianis Melyantsou, Anatol Pankouski
IMAGES BY Homoatrox (wikimedia.org under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license), Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's official Telegram channel, kremlin.ru