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BELARUS IN FOCUS: ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 SUMMARY FORECAST FOR 2021 The collapse of the ruling regime will remain likely through 2021 The power bloc will retain significant influence in domestic politics Political organisations are likely to enter new alliances and attempt to engage in dialogue with the ruling elites as civil society is expected to become more financially secure and viable The political crisis in relations between Belarus and the West will worsen in 2021 Russia may try to trade its influence in Belarus for the alleviation of Western sanctions; if not, it is likely to continue moderate support for Lukashenka 2 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 CONTENTS The Ruling Elite ....................................................................4 Security ...................................................................................8 Civil Society and Political Parties ...............................12 Belarus–West relations ...................................................18 Belarus–Russia relations ..............................................21 COLOR KEY THE SITUATION HAS DETERIORATED THE SITUATION HAS NOT CHANGED THE SITUATION HAS IMPROVED BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 3 THE RULING ELITE 2020: THE STATE LOST TOUCH WITH SOCIETY AND RESUMED FINANCIAL INTERVENTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR By Zmicier Kuchlej In 2020, the ruling class faced the most severe challenges of the last 20 years, including the coronavirus outbreak, the presidential election and mass rallies opposing the official results. The existing political system failed to address these issues, and the ruling class was forced to revert to 20th-century governance practices. The mobilisation of a militarized governance style was unable to arrest the weakening of the state and further reduced popular support for public institutions. However, the incumbent ruler and his clique managed to buy time and indefinitely delay any transition process. 4 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 Lukashenka‘s coronavirus rhetoric and lack of action to address this challenge frustrated the Education and Health ministries‘ operations, negatively affecting their public image. In the first weeks after the presidential election, IN THE FIRST the ruling elite‘s monolith of power fractured WEEKS AFTER THE and amid ever diminishing popular support PRESIDENTIAL for public institutions, the Belarusian state ELECTION, THE machine is weakening. RULING ELITE'S MONOLITH Lukashenka has lost his previous support OF POWER among most social groups. Loyalty to him is at FRACTURED a historic low, yet he retains power and control AND AMID EVER over the ruling elites, the security forces and DIMINISHING the edifice of power he created. Loyalty among POPULAR public servants is also gradually eroding, and SUPPORT many have already resigned from the civil FOR PUBLIC service. INSTITUTIONS, THE BELARUSIAN Simultaneously, the political weight of the STATE MACHINE IS security forces has peaked and liberals in WEAKENING the government have lost influence. The National Bank remains the last stronghold of technocrats but retains political disengagement. The public sector‘s lobbying for state subsidies and investment, including for loss-making public enterprises, has succeeded. The current government‘s primary preoccupation is retaining control over the labour movement and preserving public sector jobs. Small and medium-sized businesses receive minimal, if any, state aid. Before and after the presidential election, the state increased financial pressure on the private sector, demonstrating high electoral and protest mobilisation capacity. Simultaneously, the BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 5 leadership remained committed to an informal pact with large loyal businesses with no political ambitions. BY THE END In the spring of 2020, the education system OF 2020, was disoriented due to the coronavirus THERE WERE outbreak. For several weeks, the authorities 160 POLITICAL lost control over the education sector, and PRISONERS despite significant pressure from Lukashenka, IN BELARUS around 40% of parents refused to take their FACING CRIMINAL children to schools. CHARGES AND OVER 32,000 The authorities‘ inconsistent response firstly CASES OF to the coronavirus challenge, and then to ADMINISTRATIVE post-election rallies, has prompted doctors to ARRESTS take a pro-active opposing stance regarding state actions while continuing to fight in the frontlines of the coronavirus outbreak. In the spring, Civil Society organised substantial support for doctors to help them to address these challenges. Towards the end of 2020, the cost of protest activity gradually increased. After August 9, the hefty fines previously imposed upon rally participants were replaced with harsh crackdowns, arrests, torture, dismissals, and academic expulsions. The actions of security forces resulted in several killings. By the end of 2020, there were 160 political prisoners in Belarus facing criminal charges and over 32,000 cases of administrative arrests. In the second half of 2020, the state changed legislation and law enforcement practice several times, essentially placing the security forces outside the law. In the election aftermath, the incumbent ruler delegated some punitive functions to civil servants 6 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 (housing and utility services, education and social security officials) for use against some parents, IT workers and larger social and territorial groups. FORECASTS FOR 2021 Security officials are likely to retain the level of influence and repression and the ruling elite would not engage in a dialogue with the opposition on ultimatum terms Budgetary intervention in the public sector of the economy will maintain current employment levels The gap between the ruling elite and society will widen further; the regime support base will continue to narrow and erode The gap between the ruling elite and society will widen further; the regime support base will continue to narrow and erode BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 7 SECURITY 2020: A YEAR OF SECURITY LOSSES By Andrei Parotnikau 2020 was a challenging year for national security and defence. For the first time in many years, the ratio of gains to losses was persistently negative. The participation of all law enforcement agencies in the suppression of protests, the deteriorating financial situation in military industry, the involvement of law enforcement agency heads in anti- Western propaganda, and Lukashenka‘s appeal to Putin for military support have compromised Belarus‘ reputation as an independent voice on international security issues. The financial situation in the military-industrial complex has become more complicated. Although Goskomvoenprom [the State Military Industry Committee] does not disclose specific performance indicators, indirect evidence points to a deterioration in 8 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 financial performance. It appears that every fifth rouble of the military industry wage bill is financed by bank loans (from March to October this share increased 6.6% to 21.1%). The excessive concentration of defence products remains an issue: the three largest companies provide over 70% of industrial output within Goskomvoenprom (25 enterprises, 22 manufacturers). The EU sanctions against several leading Belarusian military industry enterprises will also harm their performance. Protest rally against Practically all law enforcement agencies, Lukashenka, including the army, border guards and the 30 August 2020. Ministry of Emergency Situations, were Minsk, Belarus Homoatrox BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 9 Homoatrox Protest rally against involved in the regime‘s punitive campaign Lukashenka, against widespread protests. Amid reduced 30 August 2020. popular support for public institutions, the Minsk, Belarus involvement of previously apolitical security institutions in assisting the Lukashenka regime has damaged their reputation with the people. High-ranking military officials directly participated in the crackdown on the protest movement and engaged in the propaganda campaign against the protests. This narrative included accusations against the West of planning military aggression against Belarus and allegations of subversive activities against Minsk directed at Ukraine. These repressions and the aggressive rhetoric of officialdom have voided all of the recent years‘ modest successes towards building a regional 10 BELARUS IN FOCUS ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 AND FORECAST FOR 2021 security dialogue. The fact that the Western threat is just a propaganda tool is evidenced by the absence of any significant national defence funding increase. REPRESSIONS Lukashenka’s appeal to the Kremlin requesting AND THE assistance in suppressing popular protests AGGRESSIVE and the scale of Russian participation in RHETORIC OF the “Slavic Brotherhood” exercises have OFFICIALDOM cancelled out any perception of Minsk as HAVE VOIDED ALL an independent player in the international OF THE RECENT security arena. However, despite this, there YEARS' MODEST are no direct signs of deepening cooperation SUCCESSES between Minsk and Moscow. TOWARDS BUILDING A REGIONAL SECURITY DIALOGUE FORECASTS FOR 2021 The power bloc will retain significant influence in domestic politics The Belarusian authorities will continue attempts to involve Moscow in their confrontation with
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