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February 2013, Except for North West, Northern Free State and North-Eastern Parts of the Northern Cape Where It Was Below Normal (Figure 4)

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February 2013, Except for North West, Northern Free State and North-Eastern Parts of the Northern Cape Where It Was Below Normal (Figure 4) National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2013 Autumn/Winter season Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management 07 DAFF 2013 28 March 2013 In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information. I. CURRENT CONDITIONS Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Early Warning Unit, CCDM 1 In January near normal to below normal rainfall was received except in the northern parts of Limpopo, eastern Mpumalanga and north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal where it was above normal (Figure 1). Rainfall decreased in February resulting in below normal over many areas with patches of above normal in some places (Figure 2). For the first ten days of March the below normal rainfall trend continued in most areas but above normal in parts of Limpopo (Figure 3). Near normal to above normal rainfall was received for the season July 2012 to February 2013, except for North West, northern Free State and north-eastern parts of the Northern Cape where it was below normal (Figure 4). NDVI difference map for February 2013 compared to long-term mean While there is a very positive response in vegetation activity over the north eastern parts of the country due to the very heavy rain during January, vegetation activity over the rest of the country is mostly near normal, but below normal over much of North West and adjascent areas. II. CONDITIONS IN THE PROVINCES DURING FEBRUARY 2013 Eastern Cape Near normal to below normal rainfall was received. Parts of Cacadu region reported poor to fair veld conditions but good in some areas in Amathole and Alfred Nzo. Cultivated pastures are also in good condition. Livestock is in fair to good condition. Dryland maize production is reported to be in good condition. There are high prospects of a good harvest although the volumes are likely to be lower than for 2012. Planting of some winter and perennial crops is underway in some regions. Livestock farmers have been cutting crops planted for the production of feed. Parts of Cacadu, Amathole, OR Tambo and Alfred Nzo regions reported damages caused by thunderstorms. In the Cacadu region such incidents have caused damages to deciduous fruit; and maize in other areas. There had been reports of tick borne diseases outbreak, but the Veterinary Services has attended to it. The average level of dams has slightly decreased from 83% in 2012 to 82% in 2013. Free State Below normal rainfall was received. Due to lack of rainfall in most areas crops (maize and sunflower) are under moisture stress and have reached a Permanent Wilting Point therefore yield Early Warning Unit, CCDM 2 in these areas will be adversely affected. This has resulted in a mild summer drought especially in central and southern parts. Natural veld and livestock are in reasonable to good condition mainly in the eastern and southern parts. The average level of dams has decreased compared to the previous year (86% in 2013; 88% in 2012). Gauteng The province received below normal rainfall. Veld conditions are fair in some areas but in the western parts grass growth stunted due to improper stocking rate. Overall livestock is in good condition. Farmers in the eastern region started harvesting summer crops. The average level of dams has slightly decreased to 91% in 2013 as compared to 96% in 2012 during the same period. KwaZulu-Natal Below normal rainfall was received in the north-eastern parts and the coastal strip south of Durban. Heat units were reported to be above average in Umzinyathi, UThukela and Amajuba, average in the central parts and coastal areas and below average in the southern parts. Crops are reported to be in good condition, mainly soybean and maize, with early planted maize beginning to dry out. However, farmers in Umzinyathi who planted their maize from late November onwards are not expecting good crop due to lack of rainfall. Livestock and veld are reportedly in good condition in most parts with farmers reporting sufficient bulk going into winter. There is however a concern about fuel load ahead of the fire season. Cattle were killed by lightning in UMgungundlovu and damage to maize and soya due hail was reported in UThukela and Umzinyathi. The level of dams has increased as compared to the previous year (90% in 2013; 79% in 2012). Limpopo Below normal rainfall was received, whereas normal rainfall was received in some areas of Thohoyandou/Thulamela District. Both veld and livestock conditions have improved due to the rainfall received at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, seasonal rivers are flowing in most districts. Earth dams are reported to have more water as compared to last year. The average level of dams has increased to 97% in 2013 as compared to 82% of 2012 during the same period. Mpumalanga The province received near normal to above normal rainfall with patches of below normal in the west. Summer crops especially beans are ready for harvest and farmers have started bailing their planted pasture in preparation for overwintering of livestock. Horticultural crops and sugarcane are doing well in the Lowveld. The veld and livestock are in good condition. Fruit flies on horticultural crops were reported in the Bushbuckridge municipality. There were reports of Red water in the Gert Sibande District and Veterinary Health acted swiftly in controlling it. The level of dams has slightly decreased as compared to the previous year during the same time (91% in 2013; 92% in 2012). Northern Cape NIL REPORT. North West Generally near normal to below normal rainfall was received. Currently there are no crop production activities due to below normal rainfall. Veld conditions are still poor in some parts of the province due to drought and infestation of Armyworms. The livestock condition is fair to good. In general the level of dams has decreased significantly as compared to last year during the same period (69% in 2013; 81% in 2012). Early Warning Unit, CCDM 3 Western Cape Normal to above normal rains fell in the southern and south-western coastal areas. The northern parts, especially northern areas of Matzikama and the Central Karoo experienced below normal rains. Temporary relief from drought was felt in some areas as a result of the rains. Isolated cases of summer rainfall resulted in some instances of flood damage on farms causing washouts and damage to fences. The level of dams is at 63% in 2013 which is higher than 51% of 2012 during the same period. III. AGRICULTURAL MARKETS Major grain commodities According to FNB Agri-Weekly both yellow and white maize prices moved modestly higher on Rand weakness, and gains on international markets prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term with weather playing a critical role in determining further direction. Wheat prices eased marginally lower. It is expected that domestic prices will trend sideways to lower in the short term due to weakness on international markets. Oilseeds traded on the JSE higher on Rand weakness and better international prices. Weather will be critical for price direction. Good conditions will enhance crop development, further raising yields. Domestic prices per Safex (R/t) Futures prices as at (2013/03/19) Commodity 2013/03 2013/05 2013/07 2013/09 2013/12 White maize R2400.00/t R2358.00/t R2372.00/t R2406.00/t R2438.00/t Yellow maize R2338.00/t R2328.00/t R2309.00/t R2328.00/t R2369.00/t Wheat R3387.00/t R3428.00/t R3469.00/t R3461.00/t R3296.00/t Sunflower R5225.00/t R5270.00/t R5373.00/t R5416.00/t R5430.00/t Soybeans R4726.00/t R4703.00/t R4773.00/t R4803.00/t R4903.00/t Sorghum N/a N/a N/a R2560.00/t N/a SAGIS weekly bulletin: 2013/03/22 Livestock domestic markets According to FNB Agri-Weekly Beef market came under pressure as demand slipped during midmonth. Further pressure came from increased supplies due to drought conditions in some areas. Weaner calf prices continued to weaken under pressure due to increased volumes and weaker demand. The beef market is expected to rebound on improved seasonal demand during the Easter period. The lamb and mutton markets remained under pressure and trended mostly lower for most categories. It is expected that the trend will rebound due to improved demand during the Easter period. The pork and bacorner prices were down across most categories due to lack of demand. The broiler market retained the uptrend. Prices are expected to maintain the current momentum in the short to medium term. Early Warning Unit, CCDM 4 Producer prices for selected livestock commodities Beef Mutton Pork Poultry Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds (R/kg) 28.50 41.77 18.92 20.11 Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds 22.04 33.29 16.80 18.15 (R/kg) Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) 28.51 43.12 18.06 14.32 (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) 20.70 25.45 17.38 14.76 Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) 15.28 19.13 FNB AgriCommodities: 2013/03/08 NB: Users are advised that these are just indicative prices therefore it is imperative that clients investigate their own individual basis value when marketing their products (livestock and grain).
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