February 2013, Except for North West, Northern Free State and North-Eastern Parts of the Northern Cape Where It Was Below Normal (Figure 4)

National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2013 Autumn/Winter season Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management 07 DAFF 2013

28 March 2013

In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information.

I. CURRENT CONDITIONS

Figure 1 Figure 2

Figure 3 Figure 4

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 1 In January near normal to below normal rainfall was received except in the northern parts of Limpopo, eastern Mpumalanga and north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal where it was above normal (Figure 1). Rainfall decreased in February resulting in below normal over many areas with patches of above normal in some places (Figure 2). For the first ten days of March the below normal rainfall trend continued in most areas but above normal in parts of Limpopo (Figure 3). Near normal to above normal rainfall was received for the season July 2012 to February 2013, except for North West, northern Free State and north-eastern parts of the Northern Cape where it was below normal (Figure 4).

NDVI difference map for February 2013 compared to long-term mean

While there is a very positive response in vegetation activity over the north eastern parts of the country due to the very heavy rain during January, vegetation activity over the rest of the country is mostly near normal, but below normal over much of North West and adjascent areas.

II. CONDITIONS IN THE PROVINCES DURING FEBRUARY 2013

Eastern Cape Near normal to below normal rainfall was received. Parts of Cacadu region reported poor to fair veld conditions but good in some areas in Amathole and Alfred Nzo. Cultivated pastures are also in good condition. Livestock is in fair to good condition. Dryland maize production is reported to be in good condition. There are high prospects of a good harvest although the volumes are likely to be lower than for 2012. Planting of some winter and perennial crops is underway in some regions. Livestock farmers have been cutting crops planted for the production of feed. Parts of Cacadu, Amathole, OR Tambo and Alfred Nzo regions reported damages caused by thunderstorms. In the Cacadu region such incidents have caused damages to deciduous fruit; and maize in other areas. There had been reports of tick borne diseases outbreak, but the Veterinary Services has attended to it. The average level of dams has slightly decreased from 83% in 2012 to 82% in 2013.

Free State Below normal rainfall was received. Due to lack of rainfall in most areas crops (maize and sunflower) are under moisture stress and have reached a Permanent Wilting Point therefore yield

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 2 in these areas will be adversely affected. This has resulted in a mild summer drought especially in central and southern parts. Natural veld and livestock are in reasonable to good condition mainly in the eastern and southern parts. The average level of dams has decreased compared to the previous year (86% in 2013; 88% in 2012).

Gauteng The province received below normal rainfall. Veld conditions are fair in some areas but in the western parts grass growth stunted due to improper stocking rate. Overall livestock is in good condition. Farmers in the eastern region started harvesting summer crops. The average level of dams has slightly decreased to 91% in 2013 as compared to 96% in 2012 during the same period.

KwaZulu-Natal Below normal rainfall was received in the north-eastern parts and the coastal strip south of Durban. Heat units were reported to be above average in Umzinyathi, UThukela and Amajuba, average in the central parts and coastal areas and below average in the southern parts. Crops are reported to be in good condition, mainly soybean and maize, with early planted maize beginning to dry out. However, farmers in Umzinyathi who planted their maize from late November onwards are not expecting good crop due to lack of rainfall. Livestock and veld are reportedly in good condition in most parts with farmers reporting sufficient bulk going into winter. There is however a concern about fuel load ahead of the fire season. Cattle were killed by lightning in UMgungundlovu and damage to maize and soya due hail was reported in UThukela and Umzinyathi. The level of dams has increased as compared to the previous year (90% in 2013; 79% in 2012).

Limpopo Below normal rainfall was received, whereas normal rainfall was received in some areas of Thohoyandou/Thulamela District. Both veld and livestock conditions have improved due to the rainfall received at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, seasonal rivers are flowing in most districts. Earth dams are reported to have more water as compared to last year. The average level of dams has increased to 97% in 2013 as compared to 82% of 2012 during the same period.

Mpumalanga The province received near normal to above normal rainfall with patches of below normal in the west. Summer crops especially beans are ready for harvest and farmers have started bailing their planted pasture in preparation for overwintering of livestock. Horticultural crops and sugarcane are doing well in the Lowveld. The veld and livestock are in good condition. Fruit flies on horticultural crops were reported in the Bushbuckridge municipality. There were reports of Red water in the Gert Sibande District and Veterinary Health acted swiftly in controlling it. The level of dams has slightly decreased as compared to the previous year during the same time (91% in 2013; 92% in 2012).

Northern Cape NIL REPORT.

North West Generally near normal to below normal rainfall was received. Currently there are no crop production activities due to below normal rainfall. Veld conditions are still poor in some parts of the province due to drought and infestation of Armyworms. The livestock condition is fair to good. In general the level of dams has decreased significantly as compared to last year during the same period (69% in 2013; 81% in 2012).

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 3 Western Cape Normal to above normal rains fell in the southern and south-western coastal areas. The northern parts, especially northern areas of Matzikama and the Central Karoo experienced below normal rains. Temporary relief from drought was felt in some areas as a result of the rains. Isolated cases of summer rainfall resulted in some instances of flood damage on farms causing washouts and damage to fences. The level of dams is at 63% in 2013 which is higher than 51% of 2012 during the same period.

III. AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

Major grain commodities According to FNB Agri-Weekly both yellow and white maize prices moved modestly higher on Rand weakness, and gains on international markets prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term with weather playing a critical role in determining further direction. Wheat prices eased marginally lower. It is expected that domestic prices will trend sideways to lower in the short term due to weakness on international markets. Oilseeds traded on the JSE higher on Rand weakness and better international prices. Weather will be critical for price direction. Good conditions will enhance crop development, further raising yields.

Domestic prices per Safex (R/t) Futures prices as at (2013/03/19) Commodity 2013/03 2013/05 2013/07 2013/09 2013/12 White maize R2400.00/t R2358.00/t R2372.00/t R2406.00/t R2438.00/t Yellow maize R2338.00/t R2328.00/t R2309.00/t R2328.00/t R2369.00/t Wheat R3387.00/t R3428.00/t R3469.00/t R3461.00/t R3296.00/t Sunflower R5225.00/t R5270.00/t R5373.00/t R5416.00/t R5430.00/t Soybeans R4726.00/t R4703.00/t R4773.00/t R4803.00/t R4903.00/t Sorghum N/a N/a N/a R2560.00/t N/a SAGIS weekly bulletin: 2013/03/22

Livestock domestic markets According to FNB Agri-Weekly Beef market came under pressure as demand slipped during midmonth. Further pressure came from increased supplies due to drought conditions in some areas. Weaner calf prices continued to weaken under pressure due to increased volumes and weaker demand. The beef market is expected to rebound on improved seasonal demand during the Easter period. The lamb and mutton markets remained under pressure and trended mostly lower for most categories. It is expected that the trend will rebound due to improved demand during the Easter period. The pork and bacorner prices were down across most categories due to lack of demand. The broiler market retained the uptrend. Prices are expected to maintain the current momentum in the short to medium term.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 4 Producer prices for selected livestock commodities Beef Mutton Pork Poultry

Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds (R/kg) 28.50 41.77 18.92 20.11 Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds 22.04 33.29 16.80 18.15 (R/kg) Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) 28.51 43.12 18.06 14.32 (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) 20.70 25.45 17.38 14.76 Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) 15.28 19.13 FNB AgriCommodities: 2013/03/08

NB: Users are advised that these are just indicative prices therefore it is imperative that clients investigate their own individual basis value when marketing their products (livestock and grain).

IV. SADC REGION The March 2013 Southern Africa Food Security Outlook update by FEWS NET indicates that food insecurity outcomes remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) over most parts of the region despite this being the peak of the lean season. As the lean season peaks, most households continue to depend mainly on markets to access food; in a few areas, this is being supplemented with available seasonal crops including pumpkins and melons. In general, prices of the main staples are following normal seasonal patterns. Funding for humanitarian programs and food assistance pipelines are adequately meeting needs in food insecure areas of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and southern Mozambique. In Lesotho however, on-going humanitarian programs remain underfunded, and inadequate to cover the needs of identified food insecure populations. A prolonged dry spell (Jan 21 – Feb 27) has resulted in rainfall deficits in parts of southern and central Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, southern Mozambique, north-western maize producing areas of South Africa, and southern Angola. Despite the negative impacts of flooding and dry spells, crop conditions are reported to be good in many parts of the region including parts of Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and north-eastern Zimbabwe. Average to above average harvests are expected in some of these areas.

Summary of the reports In February most parts of the country received near normal to below normal rainfall with the exception of parts of the southern and western coastal regions, parts of Limpopo, Mpumalanga Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces where patches of above normal rainfall were received. Damage to crops due to hail as well as cattle mortalities due to lightning were reported in KwaZulu-Natal. Thunderstorms have also caused damage to crops in the Eastern Cape. Crops in parts of Free State have reached a permanent wilting point due to lack of rainfall. Incidents of tick borne diseases in the Eastern Cape, fruit flies and Red water disease in Mpumalanga have been reported. Flooding occurred in the Western Cape which caused damage to fences. Over SADC food insecurity remains minimal over most parts of the region despite this being the peak of the lean season.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 5 V. MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast: April - August 2013

Figure 1- Rainfall Figure 2- Maximum temperatures

Figure 3- Minimum temperatures

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 6

How to interpret the forecast maps:  There are three sets of forecast maps: the rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures.  Each set consists of maps showing the probabilities for above-normal (left panels) and below normal (right panels) conditions to occur.  For each forecast map a probability percentage is given on a scale of 0-50% and above (the colour bars on the right hand side of each map) for the rainfall or temperatures for the season, i.e. APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2013.  The forecast probabilities indicate the direction of the forecast as well as the amount of confidence in the forecast.

For further clarification using APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2013 rainfall (Figure 1) as an example: North West Province, for the above normal category, is shaded in purple (50% and >). In the below normal category is shaded in white and light orange (≤ 33% and 33-40%). Comparing the two:- - above normal: 50% and >. - below normal: <33% and 33-40%.

The above normal rainfall category for April to June has the higher percentage and is therefore favoured. However, when a category is less than 45% it is considered uncertain and is therefore unusable. In such instances farmers are advised to plan their activities in accordance with weather conditions usually associated with that particular period/ season in their areas.

Seasonal Forecast Overview for SOUTH AFRICA

1. ENSO Discussion

ENSO conditions have been shown to be the single most determining factor in South African summer rainfall which can also be effectively forecasted. Other local ocean basins such as those from the Atlantic and Indian oceans have also shown to have very strong influences to South African rainfall, but remain very difficult to forecast for various reasons. Because of this fact, we

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 7 look at ENSO forecasts to give an indication of whether the seasons ahead would be abnormally wet (La Nina) or dry (El Nino). Below are some forecasts from international and local centres:

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) http://193.63.95.1/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_pl umes_public_s3/

Climate Prediction Center – National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC-NCEP) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTSea.gif International Research Institute Climate and Society (IRI) http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html

Risk & Vulnerability Atlas (RAVA) http://rava.qsens.net/themes/climate_template/seasonal-forecasts/NINO34_FCAST.jpg/view

ENSO is currently in a neutral phase and is predicted to persist in neutral phase for the forecast period.

2. Rainfall Forecast (April to August 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

April-May-June Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of Northern Cape and Eastern Cape.

May-June-July Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of Kwazulu-Natal, Northern Cape and Western Cape. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa.

June-July-August Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of Northern Cape and Western Cape.

3. Minimum Temperature Forecast (April to August 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

April-May-June Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures are expected for Limpopo, North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, Free State and Kwazulu-Natal.

May-June-July Enhanced probabilities for above-normal minimum temperatures are expected for most parts of South Africa. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures are expected for parts of Limpopo.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 8

June-July-August Enhanced probabilities for above-normal minimum temperatures are expected for Limpopo, Northern Cape and Western Cape.

4. Maximum Temperature Forecast (April to August 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

April-May-June Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures expected for most parts of South Africa.

May-June-July No Enhanced probabilities for below- or above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.

June-July-August Enhanced probabilities for above-normal maximum temperatures expected for parts of Limpopo, North West, Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

In summation, rainfall is anticipated to be above normal during late autumn while both maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated to also be below normal. Farmers are encouraged to continually check updates i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning.

With the above forecast in mind, the following strategies are recommended:

IV. SUGGESTED STRATEGIES:

A. Rain-fed crop production

Crop management  Scout for pests and diseases regularly and control where necessary.

B. Irrigation farming  Remove all weeds containing seeds, but keep other vegetative rests on the land because that will reduce evaporation.  Check and repair all tools and machinery.  Irrigate during cool conditions to avoid evapotranspiration.  Consider using drip irrigation as it saves water by allowing it to drip slowly straight to the roots.  Avoid over irrigation because that can create problems e.g. water logging and diseases.  Adhere to the water restrictions when issued.

C. Domestic and home garden water use  Conserve existing water supplies.  Eradicate water weeds.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 9  Limit water waste and losses.  Repair leaking pipes.  Re-use water and retain high quality.  Harvest water during rainy days.

D. Stock farming (very important) For most of the country, if the correct farming practices have been followed and stocking rates have been kept in balance with carrying capacity, animals should be in relatively good condition.  Never exceed carrying capacity of plant associations and densities – keep conservative stocking rates even during favourable climate conditions.  Provide lots of drinking points.  Enhance nutritional value of dry grazing/feed with licks: o Phosphorous deficiency is a major problem. o Licks should (in most cases) provide: - Phosphorous. - Urea (to help with the break-down of dry vegetation). - Salt. - Molasses. o Deficiencies differ according to vegetation composition/soil properties/climate. o Analysis of vegetation/soil samples can benefit the decision for supplement composition.  Sell mature, marketable animals (to help prevent overstocking).  If grazing is in danger, herd animals into pens where different animals can be segregated and fed separately.

E. Grazing (very important)  Subdivide your grazing area into camps of homogeneous units (in terms of species composition, slope, aspect, rainfall, temperature, soil and other factors) to minimise area selective grazing as well as to provide for the application of animal management and veld management practises such as resting and burning.  Determine the carrying capacity of different plant associations.  Calculate the stocking rate of each, and then decide the best ratios of large and small animals, and of grazers or browsers.  Provide periodic full growing-season rests (in certain grazing areas) to allow veld vigour recovery in order to maintain veld productivity at a high level as well as to maintain the vigour of the preferred species.  Do not overstock at any time to avoid overgrazing.  Eradicate invader plants.  Periodically reassess the grazing and feed available for the next few months, and start planning in advance.  Spread water points evenly.  Provide suitable licks to make coarse, dry range grasses more palatable.

F. Veld fires The provinces and farmers are advised to ensure that firebreaks are in place especially in winter rainfall areas where fuel load is high and may exacerbate the spread of fires. Farmers are encouraged to join Fire Protection Associations (FPA) which are formed by landowners for the purpose of predicting, preventing, managing and extinguishing veld

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 10 fires as stated by the National Veld and Forest Fire Act, Act 101 of 1998 (NVFFA). FPAs were born out of the necessity for a single integrated wildfire management structure.

An owner of the land who is obliged to prepare and maintain a firebreak must ensure that, with due regard to the weather, climate, terrain and vegetation of the area, the following is taken care of in terms of installing firebreaks (Chapter 4 of National Veld and Forest Fire Act No. 101 of 1998):  It has to be wide enough and long enough to have a reasonable chance of preventing a veld fire from spreading to or from neighbouring land.  It does not cause soil erosion and  It is reasonably free of inflammable material capable of carrying a veld fire across it.  Firebreaks may be temporary or permanent.  Firebreaks should consist of fire-resistant vegetation, inflammable materials, bare ground or a combination of these.  Firebreaks must be located in such a way as to minimize risk to the resources being protected.  Erosion control measures must be installed at the firebreak.

Firebreaks can be made through the following methods:  Mineral earth firebreak: o Through ploughing, grading and other earth movement.  Use of herbicides.  Use animals to overgraze specifically to minimise fuel.  Strategic placement of burned areas, o Not to be done on days with fire hazard (windy and dry/hot).  Plant fire resistant plants.  Plant species selected for vegetated firebreaks must be non-invasive and capable of retarding the spread of fire.

Maintaining firebreaks:  Mow, disk, or graze vegetative firebreaks to avoid a build-up of excess litter and to control weeds.  Inspect all firebreaks for woody materials.  Inspect firebreaks at least annually and rework bare ground firebreaks as necessary.  Repair erosion control measures as necessary.  Access by vehicles or people must also be controlled.  Bare ground firebreaks which are no longer needed must be stabilized i.e. o Sow grass. o Mulch.

What to do when conditions favourable for veldfire are forecast:  Prohibit fires in the open air during periods of high fire hazard and establish a fire control committee.  To control fires, an alarm system, fire fighting teams, and beaters must be organized in advance and plans prepared.  Livestock should be moved out of grazing land to a safe place.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 11 What to do during veldfire:  Water is generally not available in sufficient quantities or at adequate pressure for the control of major fires; however, sand or other loose mineral soil material can be an effective method of control.  Tree branches can be used to beat fire.

G. Severe thunderstorms/flash floods Building resilience:  Identify resources/facilities within 50km that can be utilized/that can be of help during emergencies.  Be sure to have legal and adequate markings to identify livestock.  Monitor TV and local radio stations for information regarding severe storms/flash floods in the region.  Identify natural or built areas/shelters where animals can be kept during such conditions: o Sufficient height to be above water level. o Sheltered from strong winds and wetness.  Restrict access to high risk areas such as low lying fields close to streams.  Store food in safe areas sheltered from wetness to be used after storms/flash floods.  Stay well informed about livestock in your possession and do an inventory after the event.  Keep pesticides and other chemicals in areas where water will not be contaminated during extreme rainfall/storm events.

Though rainfall is anticipated to be above normal in late autumn, farmers are advised to continually conserve resources i.e. conserve water in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983). Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal in late autumn which may suggest possibility for early frost; therefore farmers are advised to consider this in their planning. Some areas have indicated insufficient summer rainfall and dry conditions are anticipated during winter. Farmers are advised to continue to keep the number of stock in balance with carrying capacity and make provision for additional feed including licks to give livestock sufficient nutrition into the winter months. Conditions conducive for veld fires continue to pose a hazard in winter rainfall areas as well as summer regions that reported dry conditions, therefore preventative measures should remain in place e.g. maintenance/construction of firebreaks. Isolated incidents of flooding may still be possible in summer rainfall areas; hence measures for these should be maintained i.e. proper drainage systems, relocation of livestock and movable assets to a safe place.

The users are urged to continuously monitor, evaluate, report and attend to current Disaster Risk issues. It is very important and mandatory for farming communities to always implement disaster risk measures and maintain good farming practices.

The climate advisory should be disseminated widely. Users are advised to be on the look-out and act on the extreme daily warnings as well as the advisory update next month. Information sharing groups are encouraged especially among farming communities for sustainable development. It is the responsibility of farmers to implement disaster risk measures.

The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges Provinces, individuals and farmers, to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters using early warning information.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 12 The current advisory can be accessed from the following websites:www.daff.gov.za and www.agis.agric.za.For more information contact:-

DAFF, Directorate: Climate SAWS: ARC: Change and Disaster Private Bag X097 Institute For Soil, Climate Management Pretoria And Water Private Bag X250 0001 Private Bag X79 Pretoria 0001 Tel: +27 (0) 12 367 6000 Pretoria 0001 Tel:012 319 7955/56; Fax: +27 (0) 12 367 6200 Tel: 012 310 2500 Fax: 012 319 6711 http://www.weathersa.co.za Fax: 012 323 1157 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected], http://www.arc.agric.za

Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this advisory and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this advisory. Unauthorised use, copying or dissemination hereof is strictly prohibited and may result in severe civil and criminal penalties.

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 13