Sochi Talks Fail to Produce Olive Branch

4 February 4, 2018 Debate Syria

Mixed results at Sochi as peace drive changes dynamics

fter much delay, the Syrian National Dialogue Conference Sami Moubayed took place at the Black is a Syrian historian and Sea resort of Sochi. author of “Under the Black Online activists from Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). bothA camps tore it apart, however, criticising the calibre of most of the 1,511 participants, saying they don’t represent the people of Syria. Although 107 of its members were represented at Sochi, the Syrian opposition was furious with the entire event, claiming that its colleagues had sold out to the Russians. Several commanders of the armed opposition staged a sit-in at Sochi airport, objecting to the emblem of the conference, which showed the flag of the Syrian government with no tri-colour of the Syrian opposition. They returned to Turkey, asking the Turkish government to carry out the talks on their behalf. This added insult to injury among the anti-regime camp, which claimed that it jeopardises their integrity and independence. Ankara’s name was on the invita- tion cards and so was that of Iran, Russia-engineered. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives a speech during a plenary session explaining why prominent Kurdish at the Congress of Syrian National Dialogue in Sochi, on January 30. (AFP) groups such as the People’s Protec- tion Units (YPG), lobbed into the “terrorist basket” by Turkish Presi- sisted on the presence of UN Special resolution calls for drafting of a new interlocutors in the political process. dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, were Envoy Staffan de Mistura. constitution, which is expected by For its part, the opposition needs absent from Sochi. All mention of regime change was next summer, and “elections” with- to accept the reality that it will not They were not too enthusiastic dropped from the agenda, due not out explaining whether they would bring down the regime in Damascus about coming anyway, especially af- least to the presence of de Mistura be parliamentary or presidential. but rather deal with it — and the ter the Turkish Army started pound- and several ranking members of the The next round of Sochi is due to Russians — if they want to play a ing the Kurdish city of Afrin, west of opposition such as Ahmad al-Jarba, happen before the spring. Partici- political role in Syria. the Euphrates River. Certain Kurdish former head of the Syrian National pants are to discuss a timetable of Sochi broke the psychological bar- individuals showed up at the confer- Coalition, and Haytham Manna of the constitutional assembly, the rier and put all willing participants ence but in their personal capacities the National Coordination Commit- framework of operation and the ac- on the road of an endgame, one that and not as political groups. They tee for Democratic Change (NCC). tual text in addition to setting a date is tailor-made to fit the vision of the were dragged to the event by the Second-tier opposition figures were for the next parliamentary elections. Russian president. At the end of the Russian Foreign Ministry several also in the room, including Moscow- Now that a constitutional as- day, only Russia-backed opposition times during the January 29 event as backed Randa Kassis and former sembly is in the works, details need figures made it through the Russia- the conference was on the verge of Deputy Prime Minister for Economic to be sorted out: a timetable, a engineered dialogue. imploding. Affairs Qadri Jamil. framework of operation, authorities Many had expected Moscow to The result, however, was exactly These four opposition figures, and what text will it work on, the call off the event if the Saudi-backed what the Russians wanted for Sochi. along with de Mistura, signed off a present charter or a completely new opposition didn’t show up. That They desired a big show, with plenty final communique that calls for the one. This essentially supplants the didn’t happen and the Russians saw of names that reflect ethnic and creation of a constitutional commit- former political process from regime the boycott as a blessing in disguise, social diversity, regardless of who tee to amend the charter of 2012. change, as it had started out in the using their absence to promote their Sochi creates they were and how much influence The conference came forth with summer of 2012, to one of constitu- own proxies in the Syrian opposi- new dynamics they truly 200 names to be on the list, which tional reform. Even power-sharing tion. wielded. will be shortened to 45-50. The final in an upcoming government was Sochi creates new dynamics between the The conference, it must be committee, the constitution states, scrapped off the table. between the warring Syrian fac- warring Syrian remembered, was the brainchild of needs to be signed off by Syrian What the conference also tions, paving the road for serious Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Bashar Assad, something achieved was bringing the two sides face-to-face talks. The conference factions, He wanted a new political process that none of the opposition figures onto the same podium, for the first has imposed new terms of reference paving the road to go hand-in-hand with the Astana at the conference seemed to mind. time since 2011, breaking the taboo that all sides, the United Nations for serious talks, which would supplement, For now, Sochi will support of interaction. Figures long written included, will have to take into con- eventually overshadow and ulti- Geneva and not replace it, as both off as terrorists and paid agents of sideration, pushing Geneva I, which face-to-face mately replace the UN-mandated serve the end purpose of UN Secu- foreign countries have been ac- in 2014 called for regime change in talks. Geneva process. That is why he in- rity Council Resolution 2254. That cepted by Damascus as legitimate Damascus, way back into history. Sochi talks fail to produce olive branch he Syrian National international community, including The day after the meeting, Russia that Kurdish representatives were Dialogue Congress, Russia, to negotiate an end to the redeployed its military observers among those invited to the Sochi convened in the Russian Syrian civil war. in Afrin, moving them from areas conference. That didn’t go well and John C.K. Daly resort of Sochi, was Turkey’s incursion into Afrin, where clashes with the Turkish it is not clear what Moscow will do is a Washington-based specialist on intended to show the which is controlled by US-backed military could occur. next. Russian and post-Soviet affairs. superiority of Russian Kurdish People’s Protection Units Two days after the operation Russian arms helped Assad regain Tdiplomacy. Moscow’s efforts to de- (YPG), was ostensibly to fight Kurd- began, Putin spoke with Erdogan control of much of his country from liver peace in Syria were supposed ish “terrorists.” The Turkish govern- and both men agreed that Syria’s various Syrian resistance groups to to be more worthwhile than those of ment has declared the YPG to be an territorial integrity and sovereignty the Islamic State (ISIS). The second the United Nations. Sochi, however, affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ had to be respected. Kremlin presi- phase of Russia’s Syria policy was failed to deliver. Party (PKK), which has been desig- dential spokesman Dmitry Peskov to shift the focus from military The meeting ended after one day, nated a terrorist group in Turkey. said Moscow was closely following operations to diplomatic efforts to though it was supposed to last two. The incursion brought the num- the Turkish military operation. He achieve peace. The end came when members of the ber of foreign countries intervening added that Moscow maintained At the very least, the Turkish mili- Syrian opposition heckled Russian in the Syrian civil war to three. The constant communication with both tary operation greatly complicated Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syrian government denounced the Ankara and Damascus. Moscow’s efforts to present the walked out. US and Turkish military presence The Russian government offered Syrian conflict as a war that’s been Russia seems to be putting a brave in the country and declared that a stark contrast to Turkey’s wild- won by the legitimate government. face on things. Russian President only Russia has been requested to card military and diplomatic opera- Turkey’s intervention threatens to Vladimir Putin spoke with Turkish provide military assistance. tions in Syria. The Russian Ministry open a new front in a war that Rus- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan It’s unclear whether Russia will of Foreign Affairs, for instance, said: sia has been trying to end. Last year, by phone and, Putin’s press office transform its military support for “Russia holds a consistent stand Putin achieved a diplomatic coup said, the pair declared themselves Syrian President Bashar Assad’s on the search for solutions in Syria when Erdogan greenlighted his plan satisfied with the results of the regime into a peaceful resolution of based on preserving Syria’s territo- to stabilise Syria. Sochi meeting. They also discussed the conflict. rial integrity, respect for its sover- Since then, however, the Kurd- bilateral cooperation in maintain- The Turkish incursion was not a eignty and pursuing a long-term ish factor has seemingly proved to ing de-escalation zones in Syria. great surprise to Russia. Two days political settlement in accordance be a deal-breaker. Russia sees the Notably, the release had no mention before the operation began on Janu- with the UN Security Council Reso- Syrian Kurds as a potential ally and of the Kurds. ary 20, Turkish Chief of General Staff lution 2254 and the agreements on key part of any settlement. Erdogan The transparent public relations General Hulusi Akar and Under-Sec- de-escalation zones reached within considers them a terrorist menace gesture says a great deal. Russia retary of the National Intelligence the Astana process. In this connec- to Turkey. needed to portray strength and Organisation Hakan Fidan met with tion, we urge the opposing sides to Much depends on how tempo- calm competence. Turkey needed to Russian General Staff Chief General show mutual restraint.” rary the Turkish military presence Much depends on maintain good relations with Russia Valery Gerasimov in Moscow. The Moscow takes a long-term view of in Syria proves to be. If it begins to as it pursues its military operation Russian Ministry of Defence said the the situation in Syria and it seems it acquire a more permanent charac- how temporary the in the Kurdish-dominated Syrian meeting involved discussions on the does not see the Turkish incursion ter, then Erdogan might become the Turkish military city of Afrin. Erdogan’s willingness situation in Syria, focusing on issues as irreparably damaging to pros- reason for an improbable diplomatic to neutralise Kurdish paramilitary concerning the implementation of pects for peace. alliance between the United States presence in Syria forces in northern Syria starkly devi- agreements on de-escalation zones The day after Ankara’s Afrin and Russia, both seeking to restrain proves to be. ates from the broader efforts of the and on maintaining local ceasefires. incursion began, Lavrov announced his regional ambitions.