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Dstl Future Cities Trends and Implications

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Dstl Future Cities Trends and Implications Future Cities Trends and Implications Report Authors: Joseph Bogan and Aimee Feeney Project Lead: Stuart Lyle Future Cities Trends and Implications Report Authors: Joseph Bogan and Aimee Feeney Project Lead: Stuart Lyle Dstl Release Conditions Defence and Security Analysis This document has been prepared for MOD and, Portsdown West unless indicated, may be used and circulated in Portsdown Hill Road accordance with the conditions of the Order under Fareham which it was supplied. PO17 6AD It may not be used or copied for any © Crown Copyright 2019 non-Governmental or commercial purpose without the written agreement of Dstl. Approval for wider use or release must be sought from: Intellectual Property Department Defence DSTL/TR115537 Science and Technology Laboratory Porton Down, 17 Feb 2020 Salisbury, Wiltshire SP4 0JQ This product has been produced by the UK MOD Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) under the “Future Threat Understanding and Disruption” (FTUD) Science and Technology (S&T) Research Programme. It should be noted that this document does not constitute an Intelligence product, nor provide a formal threat assessment or attribution of intent. The mandate of the FTUD programme is to understand the technological and capability implications of the emergence of various technologies, systems and underpinning scientific developments, along with an associated view of wider societal or environmental impacts concerning their potential uses across a broad range of areas. This product has been produced using output from the wider MOD Research Programme along with other sources of material including open sources. Unless formally stated, it is not informed by all-source intelligence analysis and seeks to provide no assessment, endorsement, or attribution of adversarial intent or capability. UK Defence Intelligence is aware of this product and its underpinning activities, and where appropriate has been invited to contribute to its production and review. Authorisation Role Name Date Project Manager Stephen Burnip 17 Feb 2020 Technical Reviewers Philip Gibson 17 Feb 2020 Rachel Leslie Authors Joseph Bogan 17 Feb 2020 Aimee Feeney Stuart Lyle (Task Lead) i Executive Summary The Smart City The utilisation of smart city technology Future Cities will increasingly impact economic and social activity. The cultural context in As the overwhelming bulk of human which smart cities exist will affect how this interaction shifts to cities, the priorities technology is applied. Routine online usage of decision makers will inevitably follow. will no longer be confined to computers Social, economic and political links and phones. Other devices will increasingly between urban centres will continue to be interconnected to one another through increase. This will extend the degree to the ‘Internet of Things’, and will make use which localised occurrences will impact of widespread and constant data collection other cities. As a result, the interests of to inform both machine processes and state-level political actors will become human decision making. This will generate increasingly invested in the affairs of cities, opportunities and vulnerabilities for urban including those which are geographically infrastructure. Both state and non-state distant. The potential for tactical actions actors, will have the capacity to disrupt to have strategic impacts is only made interconnected online systems and the greater as cities become more important, infrastructural processes which rely connected and diverse, in terms of both on them. demographics and actors. • Smart City technology presents both • As the future operating environment opportunities and risks to UK military is going to be increasingly urbanised, activities. These technologies allow the UK military must consider this unprecedented information collection environment as a primary driver of and access opportunities; allowing capabilities pattern of life generation, identification • The military will likely have to change its and access to threat actors and wider roles and structure to reflect the growing population for influence, etc prominence and changing nature of • Adversaries can also exploit these the urban environment. For example, technologies to employ against UK the possibility of task organising a forces and allies. Understanding proportion of the UK military to be these vulnerabilities will be critical optimised for urban operations should for operational success be given strong consideration • Increasing reliance on Smart • UK military should focus on developing technologies will alter what is classed a database on urban areas where as Critical Infrastructure (some of which operations may take place. As the bulk may not even be located within the of future urbanisation will occur in Africa same state as the city of interest) and Asia, particular focus should be paid to cities within these continents Dubai at sunrise ii iii Environment Infrastructure • Infrastructure will be increasingly The increasing importance of littoral To accommodate growing population interconnected and vulnerable to cyber urban areas will shape the actions of densities, cities will continue to see (as well as kinetic) attacks decision makers. These areas will serve a sharp increase in the amount of as a focal point for increased travel and occupied vertical buildings, which Demographics trade, while simultaneously increasing will form the basis of many people’s Most cities will increasingly contain the impact of hostile action and extreme lives. Verticality will alter hierarchies a uniquely amalgamated series of weather events. As the urbanisation and territorial boundaries. The desire intersecting social and cultural networks. process continues, pollution and waste to mitigate pollution and congestion The individuals and groups that make up production will increase, changing the will lead to increasingly controlled these networks have different outlooks physical environment within cities. traffic management and in many and behaviours, shaped by their own cities, cycling and walking will be socio-economic and cultural conditions. • Increasingly littoral and globally encouraged by physically constraining When these outlooks and behaviours connected cities will result in greater vehicular movements. Autonomous cannot be balanced, conflict will likely potential for international impacts forms of transport will become more emerge. from local activities in cities. Activities common, becoming part of the smart in one city may have a global ‘knock- • Increasing demographic diversity across city infrastructure; likewise many other on’ effect that can result in strategic global cities will make understanding routine functions of cities will become pressure being placed on the UK the human terrain more complex. The automated. diversity will also be concentrated • Expanding cities may make it • Increasing verticality and the ‘urban within a relatively small geographical impossible to isolate or even by-pass canyon’ (as well as subterranean) area. Extensive and diverse cultural urban areas will impose severe constraints on understanding and language capabilities be extensive. National, • Pollution level will pose significant UK ISTAR, Fires and manoeuvre will be a critical requirement at even the international, city, district, hazards to UK personnel and the local capabilities. Verticality also most local level neighbourhood, street and even populations (resulting in humanitarian concentrates the population making sections of a building potentially crises), and they may even constrain them more accessible to both the Actors having their own ‘legitimate’ UK military activities UK and adversaries posing both This urbanisation process will occur leaders, with varying authorities opportunities and challenges mainly in Africa and Asia, this will be a and conflicting roles focal point for many decision makers. • Increasing traffic will likely overwhelm • The UK may conduct operations in a This will increase the impact of non- transport infrastructure and put severe city at the behest of the host nation, western concepts of legitimacy and constraints on urban manoeuvre yet find that the city’s governance governance, and will bring diverse and capabilities. Alternative modes of is not aligned with the host nation’s conflicting views of how a society should transport and traffic management ideals or policies. This could put the be governed into the same dense space. systems may alleviate some of these UK in a very difficult position The political and social loyalties owed to • Climate change and expanding littoral non-state actors will become increasingly • The rise in private armed groups cities will result in greater impacts from impactful and, in some instances, (inc. Private Military Companies (PMC)) natural disasters and more demand will merge with or replace the state’s may increase complexity, but also for Humanitarian and Disaster Relief governance of urban areas. offer opportunities with PMCs being (HADR) operations. ‘Floating cities’ will ideal for certain urban-specific security • The different forms of governance that be more prevalent and very difficult to activities, thus reducing the burden the UK will have to interact with could manoeuvre in on the UK military iv v Preface The following report has been conducted There has therefore been a renewed by the Defence Science and Technology push across the military to examine Laboratory (Dstl) as part of the Future the uniquely challenging urban Threat Understanding
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