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Q2 2018 Residential Market

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Q2 2018 Residential Market DENMARK MARKET REPORT MARKET UPDATE: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET NEW NORMAL COPENHAGEN AND FREDERIKSBERG Q2 2018 RESIDENTIAL MARKET Market rents and yields COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Q2 / 2018 PAGE 2 PAGE 3 MARKET UPDATE Q2 2018 NEW NORMAL Economic indicators have generally shown a slightly weaker development than in the past year, nationally and internationally. This suggests that the economy will develop positively, but at a lower level than previous economic upswings, which many economists denote as “new normal”, or the new normal for economic upswing. The European Central Bank, ECB, will phase out the bank’s bond repurchasing program at the end of the year as there are JOSEPH ALBERTI more signs that the economy is strengthened, and inflation is closer to the bank’s goals. Research Analyst MSc. Econ. Threats of a trade war between the United States and several countries have lowered the Cell phone 23 44 43 49 market’s expectations for the global economy in the near future. [email protected] Stigende vækst og beskæftigelse Increasing growth and employment 2,300,000 520 2,250,000 500 2,200,000 480 2,150,000 460 2,100,000 440 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 Full time employees Quarterly GDP Source: Statistics Denmark Oxford Economics og Collliers International Re-printing only allowed with indication of source. Contact: Lisbeth Kempel, marketing director / Cell phone 21 72 83 67 / [email protected] COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Q2 / 2018 PAGE 3 Vacancy for office and industrial and logistics properties has Transaction volume / Q2 2018 reached the lowest point since 2009, creating more incentives for speculative construction. The first signs of speculative logistics Mia. kr Estimated transaction volume construction are already underway in Greve Distribution Center, and speculative office construction is underway in Ørestad City, 100 due to rising employment and falling vacancy, among other things. Conversely, the retail sector is experiencing considerable compe- 80 tition and an ongoing disruption. Retail vacancy has increased in all regions except Central Denmark Region, where it has remained 60 Bolig 46% unchanged. The grocery industry is characterized by major com- Detail 15% petition, where chains have been forced to close stores with poor 40 locations or concepts that have not been modernized, and either 20 Kontor 22% renovate stores with new concepts or build new stores in areas of population growth. Industri 12% 0 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Andet 5% „The almost explosive increase in e-commerce and changed shop- Source: Colliers International ping patterns has resulted in greater demand for warehouses, which is why the vacancy rate is very low. At one point, it was hard to imagine that there would be a need for all the older warehouses and industrial buildings. But this has happened now. In Denmark, there are not many large modern logistics buildings for rent with a free Transaction volume ceiling height of 12.20 meters and a total open area of 10,000 square by segment / Q2 2018 meters. This is, among other things, justified by strict Danish fire requirements, including requirements for sprinkling. MG Real Estate is now building this speculatively at the Greve Distribution Center and it 5% makes sense, because many decision makers want to see a physical 100 12% building with ramps and outdoor areas, etc. It makes sense to build Residence the modern and high-ceilinged logistics facilities, in particular as 80 Oce 6046% 15% Retail 40 Industry and logistics 22% Other 20 Source: Colliers International 0 Real estate vacancy levels / Q2 2018 many growing companies must constantly seek to maximize building 12 1% capacity in terms of pallet space and inventory management. New 15% high-ceilinged modern facilities will, all else being equal, be signifi- 10 cantly more effective and thus could affect the bottom line positively.“ Lager og produktion Bolig – Tina Iburg, Commercial Real Estate Advisor. 8 5% Detailhandel Kontor 6 Kontor TRANSACTION VOLUME Detail Year to date (YTD) transaction volume nearing the end of Q2 4 22% 2018 is 24.7 billion. This is slightly lower than the level seen in Industri og logistik the record-breaking year 2017. Given that the transaction volume 2 56% Andet continues at the same pace adjusting for the usual seasonal devel- 0 opment, we expect to reach a total volume of approximately DKK '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 75-85 billion for 2018, which is below the transaction volume in 2017, but still significantly above the transaction volume in 2016. OFFICE RETAIL INDUSTRY AND LOGISTICS Source: Ejendomstorvet COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Q2 / 2018 PAGE 4 PAGE 5 The population in Copenhagen and Frederiksberg has grown by approximately 1,000 people a month in the years since the financial crisis. People tend to think that the present = the future. However, the reality is that population growth is dynamic and always changing, so population growth is not guaranteed. COPENHAGEN AND FREDERIKSBERG RESIDENTIAL MARKET The Copenhagen and Frederiksberg residential market is constantly evolving, and it is exciting to follow regardless of where you live in Denmark, because the capital is most often the first mover in terms of pricing and other developments. It cannot be assumed that the current population growth or the residential PETER LASSEN Partner construction boom will continue in the future. Cell phone 20 45 30 53 [email protected] In this quarterly report, we take a deep dive into the residential market, focusing on the funda- mental economic factors: supply and demand, and give our take on the future of the residential market. Demand for residential real estate is primarily driven by population growth. The population in Copenhagen and Frederiksberg has grown by approximately 1,000 people a month in the years since the financial crisis. People tend to think that the present = the future. However, the reality is that population growth is dynamic and always changing, so population growth is not guaran- teed. One does not need look further back than 2005 to see a decline in population. Historically, JOSEPH ALBERTI it can be seen from the graph below that there was a decline in population every year from Research Analyst MSc. Econ. 1979 to 1990. The graph not only shows the population growth (the yellow line), but also the Cell phone 23 44 43 49 population growth components which have changed considerably throughout the time period. [email protected] COMMERCIAL REALPopulation ESTATE MARKET developmentQ2 / 2018 PAGE 5 15,000 10,000 Population development Population development 15,000 5,000 10,000 0 5,000 0 -5,000 -5,000 -10,000 -10,000 1991 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 19871991 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Natural increase Net internal migration Net external migration Corrections Population increase Natural increase Net internal migration Net external migration Corrections Population increase Source: Statistics Denmark The graph shows that the natural increase Additionally, the general economic situ- Residential real estate supply offerings in (defined as the difference between the ation and the difference in pricing per Copenhagen has been characterized by number of births and deaths) was nega- square meter between apartments in significant construction, especially in the tive until 1997, and positive thereafter. As the city and houses in the suburbs are high-end portion of the market, for ex- a rough measurement, one can say that also important: This can be seen by an ample in the areas of Sydhavn, Nordhavn the natural increase has grown through- decrease in net internal migration dur- and Islands Brygge. Demand for large and out the 1979-2017 time period. This is ing “the good years“ leading up to the expensive apartments risk stagnant price due to two factors: First, Copenhagen has financial crisis – something which is also and rent levels due to the significantly increasingly been successful at retaining prevalent now. This happens because increased supply. citizens of childbearing age. In the past, condominium prices in the city increase there were a larger proportion of families more than the price of detached or ter- Yields for newer residential real estate who moved out of the city to the suburbs, raced houses in the surrounding munici- properties have now fallen to 3.75% and when they had children. Second, life palities, thereby making it more attractive for the old housing stock to 3.50%. The expectancy has risen, which has resulted for people to move out of the city. market rent for prime residential real in lower mortality for all age groups. estate is DKK 2,000 per m² per year, Finally, net external migration, calculated which corresponds to rent of DKK 15,000 Net internal migration is a term for as immigrants minus emigrants, has per month plus utilities for a 90 m² apart- domestic migration, ie. moving from one contributed considerably to the population ment. An alternative to renting an apart- municipality to another. In Copenhagen, growth in recent years. ment is to purchase a condominium. Ac- Frederiksberg and in others university cording to boligsiden.dk, the average price towns, there is typically a substantial im- RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SUPPLY per m² condominium in the municipality migration when people are in their early Residential real estate supply has recently of Copenhagen was DKK 40,606 as of 20’s, when they begin start their postsec- reached a new maximum, surpassing the July 2018.
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