An Inside Look at the Obama Administration: Politics and Policy at the Six-Month Mark

DOUGLAS SCHOEN JUNE 30 T H , 2009 Overview

I spent six years between 1994 and 2000 as one of President Bill Clinton’s senior political advisers. During that time, we did an extensive amount of polling and research on issues facing the country. Many of the decisions that were made at the very least were informed by polling information. Overview

Tonight, I seek to provide a context for decisions that the Obama administration is making: why they are doing what they are doing, and how they are doing it. I will provide this context by examining a survey that I conducted over the weekend with 800 likely voters representing a national sample of the American population. Overview

4 This is a critical time for President Obama. Personally, Obama remains popular. His policies are somewhat less popular, and there is a substantial degree of skepticism as to whether these policies will actually create jobs, and large numbers of voters fear that they will increase the deficit. Americans are convinced that the Republicans caused the economic problems we currently face. However, there is a sense that Republican policies now are at least as constructive, if not more constructive, than Democratic policies. Overview

The electorate is supportive of Obama’s health care and cap-and-trade initiatives, but has doubts about the efficiency and impact of both. Voters also have a fear that new taxes will be created from Obama’s initiatives, and that another government bureaucracy will be created because of Obama’s health care plan. There is no appetite among the electorate for another stimulus package. The Context

6 Party Identification of the American Electorate

A May 21, 2009 report by the Pew Research Center shows that 35% of voters identify themselves as Democrats, 23% identify as Republicans and 36% identify as Independents. Party Identification of the American Electorate

40% 35% 36%

30%

23% Democrat 20% Republican Independent 10%

0% Pew Research Center Report: May 21, 2009 Party Identification of the American Electorate

This represents a significant and steady decline in the Republican Party. Thirty percent identified as Republicans in 2004, and one-quarter indentified as Republicans in 2008. Republican losses however, have not translated into gains for the Democrats. Democrats have dropped one point since 2008 (36%), and have only gained two points since 2004 (33%). Party Identification of the American Electorate

The number of Americans who self-identify as Independents has reached record highs. Independents have increased four points since 2008 (32%), and six points since 2004 (30%). Thus, it’s not that the Democratic Party has grown, but that the Republican Party has fallen precipitously and more Americans identify as Independents. Party Identification 2004-2009

38% 36% 36% 36% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 35% 32% 32% 33% 30% 30% 30% 30% Democrat 30% 29% 28% 28% Republican 26% Independent 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ideological Identification of the American Electorate

Additionally, the percentage of Americans who identify as liberals has remained relatively constant over the past five years, ranging from 19% to 21%. 19% currently call themselves liberal. Those who identify as moderates and as conservatives remain stagnant as well. 38% describe themselves as moderate and 37% describe themselves as conservative. Ideological Identification 2004-2009 13

45%

40% 37% 39% 37% 37% 38%36% 38% 36% 38% 39% 35% 36% 35%

Liberal 30% Conservative 25% Moderate 21% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Identification of the American Electorate

Thus, we are in a country that is non-Republican, moderate and looking for change. How is the Obama administration framing policy and politics in the light of this environment? Direction of the Country

First and foremost, people are still angry and frustrated. 55% believe that things in the country are on the wrong track. 37% believe that things are headed in the right direction. Direction of the Country

60% 55%

50%

40% 37%

30% Right direction 20% Wrong track

10%

0% Generally speaking, are things in the country headed in the right direction, or are they on the wrong track? What’s the most serious problem facing our country?

38% believe that the most serious problem facing our country is the economy 15% say health care 15% say government ethics and corruption 12% say immigration What is the most serious problem facing our country today?

The economy 38% Health care 15% Government ethics and corruption 15% Immigration 12% Education 6% War on terror 6% The Environment 4% SocialSecurity 2% War in Iraq 1% Perceptions of the Economy

51% think the U.S. economy is currently in the midst of the beginnings of a recovery. 43% disagree. 76% think that the U.S. is facing a serious risk of inflation in the future. 17% disagree. 71% say that the U.S. is facing a risk for a period of long term higher unemployment with the unemployment rate hovering around 10%. 19% disagree. The Economy – Economic Recovery

60%

55% 51% 50%

45% 43% Agree 40% Disagree

35%

30% Do you think that the U.S. economy is currently in the midst of the beginnings of a recovery? The Economy – Inflation

80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 40% Agree 30% Disagree 20% 17% 10% 0% Do you think that the United States is facing a serious risk of inflation in the future? The Economy – Unemployment

80% 71% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Agree 19% Disagree 20% 10% 0% Do think that the United States is facing a risk for a period of long term higher unemployment, with the unemployment rate hovering around 10%? The Economy –Depression

23 60% 54% think that it is likely 54% that we could face 50% 45% another depression in the near future. 40% 45% think that it is not 30% Likely likely. Not likely

20% How likely do you think is the possibility that we could face another depression in the near future? The Economy – Depression

24 80% 76% 76% think that we are 70% probably facing the most 60% serious economic 50% 40% downturn since the Great Depression. 30% 22% Probably 20% 22% think that we are 10% Probably probably not. 0% not Do you think that we are facing the most serious economic downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression? Economic Recovery Predictions

40% say it will take more than one year, and 28% say it will take more than a few years for the U.S. economy to recover.

How long do you think it will take for the United States economy to recover?

Less than six months 4% More than six months 7% One year 22%

More than one year 40%

More than a few years 28% Barack Obama’s Economic Policies

Voters are split on whether Obama’s policies have helped the economy.

30% say they have helped the economy. One -third say they have hurt the economy . 30% say they have not yet had an impact. Barack Obama’s Economic Policies

40% 33% 30% 30% 30%

20% Helped Hurt 10% Not yet had an impact

0% So far, would you say that Barack Obama’s policies have helped the economy, hurt the economy, or have they not yet had an impact on the economy? Impact of Democratic and Republican Economic Policies

Voters are split on the impact of the Democrats’ economic policies. 38% believe that their economic policies have hurt the economy, while 38% believe that they have helped the economy. Half of the electorate believes that the economic policies of the Republican Party have hurt the economy. 31% think they have helped. Thus, George Bush remains a potent target for rhetorical attacks. Impact of Democratic and Republican Economic Policies

60% 50% 50%

40% 38% 38% 31% 30% Helped the economy Hurt the economy 20% 15% 14% Have not had an impact 10%

0% Democrat economic Republican economic policies policies Bipartisanship in Washington

Voters still want more bipartisanship in Washington.

59% think we need an increase in bipartisanship in Washington to solve our problems. 34% think we need strong leadership from President Obama.

41% say bipartisanship has gotten worse in Washington since Obama was elected president. 20% say it has gotten better, 31% say it has stayed the same. Bipartisanship in Washington

Some say what we need in Washington right now is an increase in bipartisanship to solve the country’s problems. Others say that the key to solving the country’s problems is strong and decisive leadership from the President and his supporters in Congress. Which statement is closer to your view?

We need an increase in bipartisanship. 59%

We need strong and decisive leadership from President 34% Obama and his supporters in Congress. Bipartisanship in Washington

50%

41% 40%

31% 30% It has improved 20% 20% It has gotten worse It has stayed the same 10%

0% How has bipartisanship changed since Obama's election? Republican and Democratic Policies in Congress

While voters say that Republicans caused our country’s problems, their policies are seen as marginally more constructive than the Democrats’ policies. 47% think Republicans in Congress offer constructive policies, while 44% think Democrats in Congress offer constructive policies. Republicans in Congress

50% 47% 43% 40%

30% Offer constructive 20% policies Seek to oppose 10% Democrats

0% Do you believe that Republicans in Congress offer constructive policies, or do they just seek to oppose the Democrats? Democrats in Congress

50% 44%

40% 36%

30% Offer constructive policies 20% 20% Seek to oppose Republicans 10% Not sure

0% Do you believe that Democrats in Congress offer constructive policies, or do they just seek to oppose the Republicans? Republican and Democratic Policies in Congress

To be sure, if the Democratic policies produce real results, the voters will continue to vote Democratic. But the concerns over inflation, spending, the deficit, and the lack of preservation of jobs lead a narrow plurality to actually view Republican policies as more constructive than Democratic ones. Barack Obama’s Job Approval

37 56% of voters approve of 60% 56% the way that Barack 50% Obama is performing his 43% job as President. 40% 43% disapprove. 30% Approve This indicates that there Disapprove has been significant 20% slippage in Obama’s 10% approval, as many of the other polls have shown in 0% the past month. Barack Obama's Job Approval Barack Obama’s Job Approval

The strongest reason that people approve of President Obama is because he has brought fresh leadership and new ideas to this country (41%). Voters also approve because he has changed the ineffective government by working in a bipartisan manner to create real solutions (19%). Obama’s fresh ideas and leadership trump bipartisan among voters by a two-to-one ratio. Barack Obama’s Job Approval

Obama’s economic stimulus and health care plans trail at 15%. 13% approve because they think Obama has the wisdom, intelligence and judgment to lead or country. Thus, job approval based much less on policy and more on personality are the prospects for a change in direction. Why do you approve of President Obama?

He has brought fresh leadership and new ideas to this country. 41% He has changed the ineffective government by working in a bipartisan 19% manner to create real solutions. He has created economic stimulus and health care plans that will stimulate 15% the economy, create jobs and provide health care to all Americans. He has the wisdom, intelligence and judgment to lead our country. 13% He has changed the failed foreign policies of President Bush and is 5% repairing U.S. relations with other countries. He is working hard to end the war in Iraq. 1% He is working to address the problems of global warming. 0% Some other reason 5% Not sure 2% Why do you disapprove of President Obama?

Almost half of voters who disapprove of Obama disapprove because they think his policies promote too much government involvement and ownership in the private sector. Over one -quarter disapprove because they think his budget proposal will increase the budget deficit and leave the country in debt for generations to come. Why do you disapprove of President Obama?

His policies promote too much government involvement and ownership in 48% the private sector. His budget proposal will increase the budget deficit and leave the country in 27% debt for generations to come. He has not taken a tough enough approach to foreign policy issues. 7%

He only listens to the more liberal members of the Democratic Party. 3%

He has not worked with Republicans in Congress to reach bipartisan 3% solutions to our nation’s problems. He has not handled the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan well. 1% He has not done enough to address the problems of global warming. 0% Some other reason 9% Not sure 2% President Obama’s Political Ideology

There is a strong sense that Obama is on the liberal end of the political ideological spectrum. 57% of the electorate think Obama’s views are liberal, 35% think his views are moderate, and 6% think they are conservative. 18% of the electorate describes themselves as liberal, 42% considers themselves moderate, and 35% considers themselves conservative. President Obama’s Political Ideology

60% 57%

50%

40% 35%

30% Liberal Moderate 20% Conservative

10% 6%

0% Would you say Barack Obama’s views on most political issues are liberal, moderate or conservative? Obama’s Ideology Compared to the American Electorate’s

60% 57%

50% 42% 40% 35% 35% Liberal 30% Moderate 20% 18% Conservative

10% 6%

0% Obama's views American electorate President Obama’s Agenda

Which statement comes That being said, the closer to your view? electorate likes that Obama is trying to take Barack Obama has been trying 37% to do too much, too quickly. on a large agenda. 58% believe that Obama needs to tackle the large Barack Obama needs to tackle 58% agenda cause of our the large agenda cause of our nation’s problems, while nation’s problems. 37% believe that Obama is trying to do too much, too quickly. Democrats and Republicans in Congress

Moreover, the Democrats in Congress have a higher favorability than the Republicans in Congress. 52% have a favorable impression of Democrats, while 42% have a favorable impression of Republicans. 48% have an unfavorable impression of the Democrats, while 49% have an unfavorable impression of Republicans. Favorability – Congressional Democrats

60%

55% 52%

50% 48%

45% Favorable Unfavorable 40%

35%

30% Democrats in Congress Favorability – Congressional Republicans

60%

55%

50% 49%

45% Favorable 42% Unfavorable 40%

35%

30% Republicans in Congress 2010 Midterm Election

50 60% However, concerns about

55% Obama translate into an election for Congress that 50% currently is very close. 45% 45% In a generic vote for the 40% Democrat 2010 midterm 40% Republican Congressional elections, 35% 45% of voters say they would vote for a 30% Democrat, while 40% say 2010 Midterm they would vote for a Congressional Election Republican. President Obama Approval - Economy

This administration is on the cusp, as there is narrow approval for Obama’s policies.

52% approve of the way President Obama is handling the economy, while 48% disapprove. 52% approve of President Obama’s $787 stimulus package, while 45% disapprove. President Obama Approval - Economy

60%

52%

50% 48%

Approve Disapprove 40%

30% The way President Obama is handling the economy President Obama Approval - Economy

60%

52% 50% 45% Approve Disapprove 40%

30% President Obama's $787 billion stimulus package President Obama’s Economic Policy Initiatives

54 By 54% to 35%, voters 60% say that Obama’s 55% 54% economic policy They have 50% been initiatives have not been effective in effective in saving or saving or 45% creating creating jobs. jobs 40% They have 35% not been 35% effective in saving or creating 30% jobs Obama's Economic Policy Initiatives President Obama’s Budget

55 Two-thirds say that 70% 66% Obama’s budget will 60% increase the budget Will deficit, while only 18% increase the 50% budget say it will reduce the deficit budget deficit. 13% say it Will reduce will have no effect on the 40% the deficit budget deficit. 30% Thus, while voters are Will have no effect decidedly skeptical, they 20% 18% still give Obama the 13% benefit of the doubt. 10% Obama's Budget Stimulating the Economy or Reducing the Deficit?

A majority of voters are against spending more money to stimulate the economy, as they do not want to increase the deficit.

The federal government should spend money to stimulate 37% the national economy, even if it means increasing the budget deficit.

The federal government should refrain from spending 56% money to stimulate the economy until the budget deficit has been reduced. Government Bailouts of Banks and Financial Institutions

57 80% Only one-quarter of 72% voters approve of the 70% government bailouts of 60% banks and other financial 50% institutions. 40% 72% disapprove. 30% 25% Approve Disapprove 20% 10% Government bailouts of banks and financial institutions Greater concern: executive pay or government involvement in the private sector 58

Voters are divided on limiting executive pay (43%) or limiting government involvement in the private sector (43%). Which would you say is a greater concern? Limiting executive pay and bonuses 13% 43% Allowing too much 43% government involvment in the private sector Not sure Greater concern: executive pay or government involvement in the private sector 59

Democrats are more concerned about limiting executive pay and bonuses (62%), while Republicans are more concerned about too much government involvement in the private sector (65%). 70% 65% 62% 60% 50% 42% Limiting executive 40% 33% pay and bonuses 30% 30% 27% 20% Allowing too much 10% government 0% involvment in the Democrats Republicans Independents private sector Government Takeover of the U.S. Auto Industry

60 35% approve of the 80% government takeover of 70% 62% the U.S. auto industry. 60% 62% disapprove. 50%

40% 35% Approve 30% Disapprove

20%

10% Government takeover of U.S. auto industry Obama’s Proposal to Reform the Health Care System

61 57% favor Obama’s 80% proposal to reform the 70%

health care system. 60% 57% 41% oppose it. 50% 41% 40% Favor 30% Oppose

20%

10% Obama’s Proposal to Reform the Health Care System Why do you favor Obama’s health care plan?

Almost half of those who favor his health care plan favor it because it will expand health care coverage for all Americans. 22% favor it because it will make health care more affordable. 12% say it will increase competition in the health care market. Why do you favor Obama’s health care plan?

It will expand health care coverage for all Americans. 49% It will make health care more affordable. 22% It will increase competition in the health care market. 12% It will increase the transparency in the health care market 8% and prevent abuse by private insurance companies. It will improve the quality of health care. 3% Not sure 2% Why do you oppose Obama’s health care plan?

40% of those who oppose Obama’s health care plan oppose it because it will limit access to health care by placing government bureaucrats between individuals and their doctors. 19% say it will create a new federal bureaucracy. 17% say it will drive out private competition. Why do you oppose Obama’s health care plan?

It will limit access to health care by placing government 40% bureaucrats between you and your doctor. It will create a new federal bureaucracy. 19% It will drive out private competition. 17% It will increase taxes. 13% It will increase the deficit. 7% Not sure 2% Health Insurance for all Americans

66 45% want the 60% government to guarantee 55% health insurance for all 50% Americans, while 48% do 48% 45% not. 45% 40% Yes No 35%

30% Should the government guarentee health insurance for all Americans? Health Insurance for All Americans

Among Democrats, 88% think that the government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, while 6% do not. 82% of Republicans do not think that the government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, while 10% do. Two-thirds of Independents do not think that the government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, while 27% do. Health Insurance for All Americans

90% 88% 82% 80% 70% 66% 60% 50% Yes 40% No 30% 27% 20% 10% 10% 6% 0% Democrats Republicans Independents Obama’s Health Care Proposal

69 Two-thirds are 70% 66% concerned that Obama’s 60% health care proposal may require new taxes to pay 50% for it. 40% Concerned One -third are not 33% Not concerned. 30% concerned

20% Are you concerned that Obama's health care proposal may require new taxes to pay for it? Obama’s Cap and Trade Plan

70 58% favor Obama’s cap 70% and trade plan to reduce greenhouse gas 60% 58% emissions, stimulate job creation, promote 50% development in Favor renewable energy, and 40% 39% Oppose provide tax credits for Americans who need it 30% most. 39% oppose this plan. 20% Cap and trade plan Larger or Smaller Government

More voters would prefer a smaller government that provides fewer services than a larger government that provides more services.

Prefer a smaller federal government that would provide 46% fewer services.

Prefer a larger, more powerful federal government that 38% would provide more services. Obama’s Economic Policies and Our Free Market System

72 There is a fear that 70% Obama’s economic policies threaten the free market 60% system. Threaten Half say that Obama’s 50% our free 50% market policies, such as the bank system and auto industry bailouts 39% and the stimulus package, 40% Are threaten the stability of our necessary to jump start free market system. 30% the 39% say these policies are economy necessary to jump start the 20% national economy. Obama's economic policies Bigger Threat: Big Government or Big Business

73 58% think big 70% government is a bigger threat, while 31% think 60% 58% big business is the bigger threat. 50% Big government 40% Big business

31% 30%

20% Which is the bigger threat? More Important for the Economy: Government or Business

74 69% believe business is 70% 69% more important to get 60% the economy moving again, while 23% believe 50% the government is more important. 40% Government

30% Business 23% 20% Which is more important for getting the economy moving again? Government Involvement in the Economy

Voters are divided on whether it is necessary to have government involved in jumpstarting the economy, or if Obama’s policies promote too much government involvement.

The government must get involved in the economy the 45% way that President Obama has done to jump start the national economy.

Obama’s policies promote too much government 46% involvement. President Obama and Foreign Policy

76 70% 61% of Americans 61% 60% generally approve of the way that President 50% 39% Obama is handling 40% foreign policy initiatives, 30% Approve while 39% disapprove. 20% Disapprove

10%

0% President Obama and Foreign Policy President Obama and Foreign Policy – War on Terror

60% 55% Over half (55%) of Americans approve of 50% 42% Barack Obama’s 40% handling of the war on

30% terror, while 42% Approve disapprove. 20% Disapprove

10%

0% President Obama and the War on Terror President Obama and Foreign Policy - Terrorism

38% of the American electorate thinks Obama’s policies are making the United States safer from terrorism. One-third think they are making them less safe from terrorism. 22% think they are not making a difference. President Obama and Foreign Policy - Terrorism

40% 38% 33% 30% Safer from terrorism 22% 20% Less safe from terrorism 10% Not making a difference

0% Do you think Barack Obama’s policies are making the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or are they not making a difference? President Obama and Foreign Policy – Guantanamo Bay

80 60% 46% of Americans approve of Barack 53% Obama’s decision to 50% close the military prison 46% at Guantanamo Bay early next year. Approve Disapprove Over half (53%) 40% disapprove.

30% Closing Guantanamo Bay President Obama and Foreign Policy - Torture

81 42% say that the U.S. 60% 51% should never use torture 50% against suspected 42% U.S. should 40% never use terrorists. torture against 51% say that there are 30% suspected terrorists certain circumstances in 20% which it is necessary to use torture. 10% There are certain circumstances 0% in which it is necessary to Use of torture use torture in the war on terror President Obama and Foreign Policy – North Korea

60% 54% 54% of Americans are 50% satisfied with Barack 42% 40% Obama’s handling of the Satisfied crisis over North Korea 30% developing nuclear 20% Unsatisfied weapons. 10% 42% are not satisfied. 0% How satisfied are you with Barack Obama’s handling of the crisis over North Korea developing nuclear weapons? President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iran

59% are satisfied with Obama’s handling of the crisis over Iran developing nuclear weapons, while 36% are not satisfied. 66% approve of the way Obama is handling the crisis over the recent presidential election in Iran, while 30% disapprove. President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iran

70% 59% 60%

50%

40% 36%

30% Satisfied Unsatisfied 20%

10%

0% How satisfied are you with Barack Obama’s handling of the crisis over Iran developing nuclear weapons? President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iran

70% 66%

60%

50%

40% 30% 30% Approve Disapprove 20%

10%

0% How do you rate the way President Obama is handling the crisis over the recent presidential election in Iran? President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iran

Almost half say Obama is doing the right thing by not getting too involved in the Iranian elections. 36% say he should have been more involved in supporting the opposition in Iran.

Some have said that by not getting too involved in the internal affairs of Iran, Barack Obama has preserved our ability to negotiate with the Iranian government over their nuclear energy program. Others say that Obama should have been more involved in standing up for free elections and the protection of freedom and liberty. Which is closer to your view? President Obama should have been more involved in supporting the 36% opposition in Iran.

He is doing the right thing currently. 49% President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iraq

87 80% Over two-thirds of 68% 70% Americans believe that 60% American efforts to bring 50% stability and order to 40% 32% Iraq are going well, while 30% Well one -third believe that 20% Badly 10% things are going badly. 0% How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iraq

This marks a 50-point increase in those who think that things in Iraq are going well from 18% in 2007. This also marks a 48-point decrease in those who think that things in Iraq are going badly from 80% in 2007. President Obama and Foreign Policy - Iraq

90% 80% 80% 70% 68% 60% 50% Well 40% 32% Badly 30% 20% 18% 10% 0% 2009 2007 President Obama and Foreign Policy - Afghanistan

90 60% Afghanistan is the most 50% 48% 48% contentious foreign 40% policy issue among 30% voters. 20% 48% say things are going Well 10% well for the United States Badly right now in the war in 0% What is your Afghanistan, while 48% impression of how say that things are going the war in Afghanistan is going badly for the United for the United States States. right now? Obama Administration and Foreign Policy –the Middle East 91 60% One-third of Americans 51% 50% think that the Obama

40% administration has been 32% able to make progress in 30% moving along the peace 20% 17% Yes process in the Middle No 10% East. Not sure 0% Over half do not think that Do you think that the the Obama administration Obama administration has been able to make any has made progress. progress in moving along the peace process in the 17% are not sure. Middle East?