An Inside Look at the Obama Administration: Politics and Policy at the Six-Month Mark 1 DOUGLAS SCHOEN JUNE 30 T H , 2009 Overview 2 I spent six years between 1994 and 2000 as one of President Bill Clinton’s senior political advisers. During that time, we did an extensive amount of polling and research on issues facing the country. Many of the decisions that were made at the very least were informed by polling information. Overview 3 Tonight, I seek to provide a context for decisions that the Obama administration is making: why they are doing what they are doing, and how they are doing it. I will provide this context by examining a survey that I conducted over the weekend with 800 likely voters representing a national sample of the American population. Overview 4 This is a critical time for President Obama. Personally, Obama remains popular. His policies are somewhat less popular, and there is a substantial degree of skepticism as to whether these policies will actually create jobs, and large numbers of voters fear that they will increase the deficit. Americans are convinced that the Republicans caused the economic problems we currently face. However, there is a sense that Republican policies now are at least as constructive, if not more constructive, than Democratic policies. Overview 5 The electorate is supportive of Obama’s health care and cap-and-trade initiatives, but has doubts about the efficiency and impact of both. Voters also have a fear that new taxes will be created from Obama’s initiatives, and that another government bureaucracy will be created because of Obama’s health care plan. There is no appetite among the electorate for another stimulus package. The Context 6 Party Identification of the American Electorate 7 A May 21, 2009 report by the Pew Research Center shows that 35% of voters identify themselves as Democrats, 23% identify as Republicans and 36% identify as Independents. Party Identification of the American Electorate 8 40% 35% 36% 30% 23% Democrat 20% Republican Independent 10% 0% Pew Research Center Report: May 21, 2009 Party Identification of the American Electorate 9 This represents a significant and steady decline in the Republican Party. Thirty percent identified as Republicans in 2004, and one-quarter indentified as Republicans in 2008. Republican losses however, have not translated into gains for the Democrats. Democrats have dropped one point since 2008 (36%), and have only gained two points since 2004 (33%). Party Identification of the American Electorate 10 The number of Americans who self-identify as Independents has reached record highs. Independents have increased four points since 2008 (32%), and six points since 2004 (30%). Thus, it’s not that the Democratic Party has grown, but that the Republican Party has fallen precipitously and more Americans identify as Independents. Party Identification 2004-2009 11 38% 36% 36% 36% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 35% 32% 32% 33% 30% 30% 30% 30% Democrat 30% 29% 28% 28% Republican 26% Independent 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ideological Identification of the American Electorate 12 Additionally, the percentage of Americans who identify as liberals has remained relatively constant over the past five years, ranging from 19% to 21%. 19% currently call themselves liberal. Those who identify as moderates and as conservatives remain stagnant as well. 38% describe themselves as moderate and 37% describe themselves as conservative. Ideological Identification 2004-2009 13 45% 40% 37% 39% 37% 37% 38%36% 38% 36% 38% 39% 35% 36% 35% Liberal 30% Conservative 25% Moderate 21% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Identification of the American Electorate 14 Thus, we are in a country that is non-Republican, moderate and looking for change. How is the Obama administration framing policy and politics in the light of this environment? Direction of the Country 15 First and foremost, people are still angry and frustrated. 55% believe that things in the country are on the wrong track. 37% believe that things are headed in the right direction. Direction of the Country 16 60% 55% 50% 40% 37% 30% Right direction 20% Wrong track 10% 0% Generally speaking, are things in the country headed in the right direction, or are they on the wrong track? What’s the most serious problem facing our country? 17 38% believe that the most serious problem facing our country is the economy 15% say health care 15% say government ethics and corruption 12% say immigration What is the most serious problem facing our country today? 18 The economy 38% Health care 15% Government ethics and corruption 15% Immigration 12% Education 6% War on terror 6% The Environment 4% SocialSecurity 2% War in Iraq 1% Perceptions of the Economy 19 51% think the U.S. economy is currently in the midst of the beginnings of a recovery. 43% disagree. 76% think that the U.S. is facing a serious risk of inflation in the future. 17% disagree. 71% say that the U.S. is facing a risk for a period of long term higher unemployment with the unemployment rate hovering around 10%. 19% disagree. The Economy – Economic Recovery 20 60% 55% 51% 50% 45% 43% Agree 40% Disagree 35% 30% Do you think that the U.S. economy is currently in the midst of the beginnings of a recovery? The Economy – Inflation 21 80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 40% Agree 30% Disagree 20% 17% 10% 0% Do you think that the United States is facing a serious risk of inflation in the future? The Economy – Unemployment 22 80% 71% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Agree 19% Disagree 20% 10% 0% Do think that the United States is facing a risk for a period of long term higher unemployment, with the unemployment rate hovering around 10%? The Economy –Depression 23 60% 54% think that it is likely 54% that we could face 50% 45% another depression in the near future. 40% 45% think that it is not 30% Likely likely. Not likely 20% How likely do you think is the possibility that we could face another depression in the near future? The Economy – Depression 24 80% 76% 76% think that we are 70% probably facing the most 60% serious economic 50% 40% downturn since the Great Depression. 30% 22% Probably 20% 22% think that we are 10% Probably probably not. 0% not Do you think that we are facing the most serious economic downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression? Economic Recovery Predictions 25 40% say it will take more than one year, and 28% say it will take more than a few years for the U.S. economy to recover. How long do you think it will take for the United States economy to recover? Less than six months 4% More than six months 7% One year 22% More than one year 40% More than a few years 28% Barack Obama’s Economic Policies 26 Voters are split on whether Obama’s policies have helped the economy. 30% say they have helped the economy. One -third say they have hurt the economy . 30% say they have not yet had an impact. Barack Obama’s Economic Policies 27 40% 33% 30% 30% 30% 20% Helped Hurt 10% Not yet had an impact 0% So far, would you say that Barack Obama’s policies have helped the economy, hurt the economy, or have they not yet had an impact on the economy? Impact of Democratic and Republican Economic Policies 28 Voters are split on the impact of the Democrats’ economic policies. 38% believe that their economic policies have hurt the economy, while 38% believe that they have helped the economy. Half of the electorate believes that the economic policies of the Republican Party have hurt the economy. 31% think they have helped. Thus, George Bush remains a potent target for rhetorical attacks. Impact of Democratic and Republican Economic Policies 29 60% 50% 50% 40% 38% 38% 31% 30% Helped the economy Hurt the economy 20% 15% 14% Have not had an impact 10% 0% Democrat economic Republican economic policies policies Bipartisanship in Washington 30 Voters still want more bipartisanship in Washington. 59% think we need an increase in bipartisanship in Washington to solve our problems. 34% think we need strong leadership from President Obama. 41% say bipartisanship has gotten worse in Washington since Obama was elected president. 20% say it has gotten better, 31% say it has stayed the same. Bipartisanship in Washington 31 Some say what we need in Washington right now is an increase in bipartisanship to solve the country’s problems. Others say that the key to solving the country’s problems is strong and decisive leadership from the President and his supporters in Congress. Which statement is closer to your view? We need an increase in bipartisanship. 59% We need strong and decisive leadership from President 34% Obama and his supporters in Congress. Bipartisanship in Washington 32 50% 41% 40% 31% 30% It has improved 20% 20% It has gotten worse It has stayed the same 10% 0% How has bipartisanship changed since Obama's election? Republican and Democratic Policies in Congress 33 While voters say that Republicans caused our country’s problems, their policies are seen as marginally more constructive than the Democrats’ policies. 47% think Republicans in Congress offer constructive policies, while 44% think Democrats in Congress offer constructive policies. Republicans in Congress 34 50% 47% 43% 40% 30% Offer constructive 20% policies Seek to oppose 10% Democrats 0% Do you believe that Republicans in Congress offer constructive policies, or do they just seek to oppose the Democrats? Democrats in Congress 35 50% 44% 40% 36% 30% Offer constructive policies 20% 20% Seek to oppose Republicans 10% Not sure 0% Do you believe that Democrats in Congress offer constructive policies, or do they just seek to oppose the Republicans? Republican and Democratic Policies in Congress 36 To be sure, if the Democratic policies produce real results, the voters will continue to vote Democratic.