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October 9, 2012 October 9, 2012 KOREA Morning Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) GS Retail (Buy/TP: W42,000) Raise TP KOSPI 1,981.89 -13.28 -0.67 Stellar growth to drive share re-rating KOSPI 200 260.11 -1.96 -0.75 KOSDAQ 537.79 1.97 0.37 Korean Air (Buy/TP: W70,000) Focus on significant improvement in the passenger unit Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 497,669 4,021 Sector News & Analysis KOSPI 200 68,343 2,882 KOSDAQ 554,935 2,973 Banks (Overweight) Operational risk assessment of the banking industry Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,142,453 Economy & Strategy Update KOSDAQ 117,910 Fixed Income Weekly KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Economy needs monetary easing Buy Sell Net Foreign 870 929 -59 Institutional 945 1,068 -123 Retail 2,182 2,006 176 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 84 98 -14 Institutional 107 100 8 Retail 2,781 2,772 9 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 533 558 -25 KOSDAQ 14 12 2 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 302 534 65 KOSDAQ 432 497 70 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,373,000 3,000 329 KODEX LEVERAGE 12,580 -205 189 Hynix 23,700 450 133 Hyundai Motor 237,500 -5,000 119 POSCO 358,000 -7,000 108 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value YG Entertainment 88,500 -8,700 168 Wemade 63,200 -1,300 110 Joymax 43,900 1,550 87 Dragonfly 20,350 100 64 S Connect 2,855 5 57 Note: As of October 8, 2012 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company October 9, 2012 Retail GS Retail (007070 KS) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Mina Kim Stellar growth to drive share re-rating +822-768-4163 [email protected] Raise TP to W42,000; Maintain Buy call Jieun Lee +822-768-3265 We maintain our Buy call on GS Retail and raise our target price by 35% to W42,000 [email protected] (from W31,000). We expect GS RetailÊs shares to be re-rated, as the company will likely see stellar growth despite increasingly tough domestic market conditions. During 2000~2008, when Shinsegae (currently Emart) achieved structural growth regardless of domestic consumption growth, its shares traded at a lofty valuation (a P/E of 13.5x on average; high P/E of 24x). During 2006~2007, even stripping away Buy (Maintain) expectations for the companyÊs expansion into China, its shares would have traded Target Price (12M, W) 42,000 at a P/E of a lofty 19x (the upper bound of its structural-growth-phase P/E range). Share Price (10/08/12, W) 33,600 Considering GS Retail is also likely to display stellar growth despite a tough Expected Return (%) 25.0 domestic environment, we derived our target price by applying a target P/E of 19x to EPS Growth (12F, %) 46.4 Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 13.9 a 2013 EPS estimate. P/E (12F, x) 18.9 Market P/E (12F, x) 11.0 Shares to be affected by regulations in 4Q KOSPI 1,981.89 For 3Q, we project GS Retail to post revenues of W1.3tr (up 16.5% YoY) and an Market Cap (Wbn) 2,587 operating profit of W61.7bn (up 52% YoY), vs. market consensus estimates of Shares Outstanding (mn) 77 W1.25tr for revenues (up 14.9% YoY) and W63.6bn for operating profits (up 56.7% Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 115 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 3 YoY). The third quarter has traditionally been a strong season for the convenience Dividend Yield (12F, %) 0.9 store business. Because the weather was warm in 3Q, we estimate beverage Free Float (%) 34.3 revenues were strong (margins for food and beverages are higher than tobacco 52-Week Low (W) 19,350 margins). For 4Q, we expect two factors to influence the companyÊs shares. 52-Week High (W) 33,600 Thirteen over-the-counter drug products will be allowed to be on sale at Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) -0.04 convenience stores starting on November 15th, which should boost customer traffic. Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2.8 On the other hand, the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) is likely to announce a Foreign Ownership (%) 6.6 Major Shareholder(s) restriction on new convenience store openings within a certain distance of existing GS (65.75%) convenience stores, which should negatively affect GS RetailÊs shares. LG Corp. (11.97%) Samsung Asset Mngt. (5.01%) Likely to show stellar growth despite tough domestic environment Price Performance We expect the domestic convenience store industry to continue to post robust (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 14.1 40.0 - growth over the long term, supported mainly by consumers seeking convenience in Relative 11.4 42.3 - shopping. Recent trends indicate a segment of Korean consumers are seeking Key Business convenience at the expense of price discounts. Moreover, demand for franchise GS GroupÊs retail subsidiary, which businesses should continue to grow with the accelerating retirement of the baby- operates CVS, supermarkets, H&B boom generation. Additionally, as the product mix at convenience stores is drugstores, etc. continuously improving with the addition of more fresh food and drug products, customers are likely to increase. Also, given that mom-and-pop supermarkets still account for 80% of supermarkets, Share price KOSPI FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 160 (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 140 12/10 3,280 95 2.9 442 5,743 173 96 37.4 - - - 12/11 3,982 103 2.6 94 1,215 214 -263 6.7 19.1 1.4 9.2 120 12/12F 4,710 165 3.5 138 1,779 261 227 9.3 18.9 1.8 6.3 100 12/13F 5,416 208 3.8 169 2,165 303 105 10.5 15.5 1.6 5.0 80 12/14F 6,138 253 4.1 201 2,588 351 137 11.5 13.0 1.4 4.2 12/11 4/12 8/12 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Sources: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company October 9, 2012 they are highly likely to switch to the franchise business. Furthermore, if the expansion of the super-supermarket (SSM) business is hindered by restrictions, this could benefit the convenience store business, including GS Retail. Figure 1. Valuation of Shinsegae Figure 2. Store expansion plans for GS Retail (W) 25x 20x (Number of stores) (%) 9,307 400,000 9,400 GS25 (L) 30 YoY growth (R) 8,307 15x 300,000 7,550 7,307 25 6,307 10x 200,000 5,700 20 5,026 3,915 5x 100,000 3,850 3,388 15 2,856 2,399 0 2,000 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Sources: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates 2 Company October 9, 2012 Transportation Korean Air (003490 KS) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Jay JH Ryu Focus on significant improvement in the passenger unit +822-768-4175 [email protected] Maintain Buy call with TP of W70,000 We maintain our Buy call on Korean Air with a target price of W70,000.
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