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LG Corp. (003550 KS ) Betting on Automotive Electronics

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LG Corp. (003550 KS ) Betting on automotive electronics Holding companies Electronics affiliates’ net profit contribution is increasing; LGE’s earnings improvement will be key Company Update LG Corp. recognizes the earnings of most of its listed subsidiaries—LG Electronics (LGE ; September 14, 2018 066570 KS/Buy/TP: W110,000/CP: W71,500), LG Chem (051910 KS/Buy/TP: W460,000/CP: W350,000), LG Uplus (032640 KS/Buy/TP: W19,000/CP: W17,400), etc.— under equity method, and consolidates the earnings of its unlisted subsidiaries (Serveone, LG CNS, etc.). (Maintain) Buy While unlisted subsidiaries have delivered notable earnings improvements since 2015, we believe the rate of earnings growth will begin to moderate in 2018. As such, we Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 100,000 think LG Corp.’s re-rating will hinge on whether its electronics affiliates , such as LGE, LG Innotek (011070 KS/Buy/TP: W210,000/CP: W130,500), and LG Display (LGD; 034220 Share Price (09/13/18, W) 71,400 KS/Buy/TP: W27,000/CP: W20,250), can restore their competitiveness and impr ove earnings. Electronics affiliates, led by LGE , make up more than half of LG Corp.’s total Expected Return 40% assets and revenue (profit). As such, LG Corp.’ s stock has naturally exhibited a strong correlation with LGE. OP (18F, Wbn) 2,196 At the group level, the automotive electronics business is being actively driven by LGE, alongside LG Chem, LG Innotek, and LGD, as a future growth engine. In particular, the Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 2,270 acquisition of Austrian auto parts maker ZKW, which closed in August, is expected to EPS Growth (18F, %) -23.0 diversify the group’s product portfolio and create synergies with its existing Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 13.7 automotive electronics businesses. ZKW will also be consolidated starting in P/E (18F, x) 6.8 September, contributing to earnings growth. Market P/E (18F, x) 8.8 Further group restructuring is likely KOSPI 2,286.23 At a special shareholder meeting in June, LG Corp. appointed Koo Kwang-mo as its new Market Cap (Wbn) 12,321 chairman, signaling the beginning of the group’s fourth-generation leadership. In Shares Outstanding (mn) 176 addition, Vice Chairman Koo Bon-joon plans to resign at the end of the year. As such, Free Float (%) 53.4 we expect discussions about the separation of group affiliates to gather traction. Foreign Ownership (%) 34.4 Similar to past experiences with LS Group and GS Group, we believe LG Group will choose Beta (12M) 1.08 to separate its affiliates through spin-offs and share swaps. That said, uncertainties are 52-Week Low 69,000 likely to remain high until there is clarity on which affiliates will be spun off. 52-Week High 94,900 Meanwhile, with the calculation of inheritance taxes on the LG Corp. stake (11.3%) held by (%) 1M 6M 12M late Chairman Koo Bon-moo having been finalized, we expect the stake transfer to take Absolute -2.2 -21.0 -14.4 place within November and believe a number of options will be explored to fund the taxes. Relative -3.8 -13.8 -11.6 Cut TP to W100,000, but maintain Buy 120 LG Corp. KOSPI We lower our target price on LG Corp. by 16.7% to W100,000 (from W120,000), mainly 110 due to the YTD decline in the value of the company’s stakes in subsidiaries, including 100 LGE and LG Chem. Still, we maintain our Buy rating in light of the upside potential 90 implied in our target price. 80 The stock remains undervalued, trading at a 2018F P/E of 6.8x and a 57% discount to 70 9.17 1.18 5.18 9.18 NAV. We note that since 2010, LG Corp. shares have rebounded sharply after falling to a P/E of 8x. New businesses led by LGE should make gradual progress in 2H18, providing upside momentum to shares. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Holding Companies/IT Services ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 9,965 9,674 11,841 12,764 13,883 15,355 Dae -ro Jeong +822 -3774 -1634 OP (Wbn) 1,139 1,323 2,186 2,196 2,378 2,582 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.4 13.7 18.5 17.2 17.1 16.8 Su Yeon Lee NP (Wbn) 944 1,075 2,396 1,844 2,035 2,227 +822 -3774 -7162 EPS (W) 5,369 6,111 13,623 10,485 11,572 12,662 [email protected] ROE (%) 7.5 8.0 16.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 P/E (x) 13.2 9.8 6.7 6.8 6.2 5.6 P/B (x) 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates September 14, 2018 LG Corp. Figure 1. LG Corp.’s NAV breakdown Figure 2. Combined OP of Serveone and LG CNS Real estate Other (Wbn) 3.2 2.7 700 LG CNS Brand royalties Serveone 5.9 600 LGE, 13.6 500 281 272 400 268 Other investment securities, 24.6 223 LG Chem 300 28.4 156 200 153 84 338 286 292 LG H&H 100 187 211 21.6 128 133 0 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 20F Source: FnGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. LGE’s contribution to LG Corp’s net profit Figure 4. Shares of LG Corp. and LGE move in sync (attributable to controlling interests) (Wbn) (%) (W) 2,500 Net profit (L) 40 120000 LG Corp. LGE LGE contribution (R) 100000 2,000 30 80000 1,500 20 60000 1,000 40000 Correlation coefficient: +0.93 10 500 (from 1/1/16) 20000 0 0 0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 20F 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: FnGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5. LG Corp. (30% stake) acquired ZKW jointly with LGE Figure 6. LG Group’s automotive electronics business value (70%) chain Company ZKW Country Austria CEO Armin Schaller de Oliveira 1. Issuer Capital stock (W) 45,945,200 Major business Manufacture of automotive headlamps No. of shares acquired - Acquisition value (W) 421,938,434,691 2. Equity capital (W) 16,179,510,378,758 Acquisition % of equity capital 2.61 Classification Large corporation 3. Post - No. of shares - acquisition stake Stake (%) 30 4. Method Cash-for-stock Competiveness improvement via acquisition of new growth driver and 5. Purpose business portfolio enhancement Source: DART, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 14, 2018 LG Corp. Table 1. 3Q18 preview (Wbn, %) 3Q18F Growth 3Q17 2Q18 Mirae Asset Consensus QoQ YoY Daewoo Revenue 2,970.0 2,960.3 3,062.0 3,115.8 3.4 3.1 Operating profit 572.0 524.0 584.1 588.8 11.5 2.1 Net profit 821.8 468.9 470.1 506.4 0.3 -42.8 OP margin 19.3 17.7 19.1 18.9 1.4 -0.2 Net margin 27.7 15.8 15.4 16.3 -0.5 -12.3 Source : Company data, FnGuide , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn) 2017 2018F 3Q18 growth 2019F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Annual 1Q 2Q 3QF 4QF Annual QoQ YoY Revenue 2,589 2,854 2,970 3,428 11,841.1 2,850 2,960 3,062 3,892 12,764 13,883 3.4 3.1 General revenue 1,984 2,287 2,465 3,072 9,808.4 2,274 2,470 2,488 3,418 10,650 11,351 0.7 1.0 Equity-method gains 504 443 385 245 1,577.1 473 367 443 339 1,622 2,000 20.8 15.1 LG Chem 155 182 157 100 592.9 155 148 147 128 579 667 -0.8 -6.3 LGE 237 142 92 33 503.9 218 75 142 91 526 921 89.4 54.1 LG H&H 56 48 57 30 190.8 62 58 59 44 223 246 2.4 3.2 LG Uplus 49 41 47 61 198.9 40 45 55 48 189 207 21.5 17.0 LG Hausys 4 10 5 3 21.8 2 2 8 5 17 26 312.1 49.7 Other 101 124 121 111 455.6 103 123 131 135 492 532 5.9 8.4 Cost of sales 1,895 2,192 2,301 2,905 9,293.9 2,143 2,340 2,372 3,298 10,154 11,057 1.4 3.1 Gross profit 694 662 669 523 2,547.2 707 620 690 594 2,610 2,827 11.2 3.1 SG&A expenses 77 92 97 96 361.3 93 96 105 121 415 449 9.8 8.9 Operating profit 617 570 572 427 2,185.8 615 524 584 473 2,196 2,378 11.5 2.1 Financial income -10 -3 -3 -10 -24.4 20 22 -8 -7 28 -2 TTR RR Non-operating profit 174 4 409 -8 579.9 45 24 -4 -10 56 24 TTR TTR Pretax profit 781 571 979 410 2,741.3 626 521 573 456 2,176 2,400 10.0 -41.5 Net profit 753 542 835 305 2,435.6 556 475 478 360 1,869 2,059 0.6 -42.8 Controlling interests 748 529 822 297 2,395.9 554 469 470 351 1,844 2,035 0.3 -42.8 Source : Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 3.
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